Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292134 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 534 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SLIDES EAST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME CLEARING AND MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP, LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK BUILDING RIDGE. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR BY 21Z. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A LOW STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 21Z...WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING BY 02Z THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. THINKING LIFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM AND CIGS OVERCAST AT 100 FEET WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT MPV/SLK. ALSO...GUIDANCE SHOWS CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AT BOTH SITES. WILL USE A TEMPO GROUP AT PBG/MSS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...AS PROGGED 975MB WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND PREVENT THICK FOG FROM DEVELOPING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BTV...BUT HAVE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIOD OF LOW VIS/CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. FOG AND ASSOCIATED VIS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AT ALL SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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