Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190535 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 135 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 134 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

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