Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBTV 222338 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 638 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE 15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT MAY OCCUR. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY. BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY. EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...MB
