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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 134 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE...A
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK OK
HOWEVER...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING
AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS...WE`VE GOT SOME PRETTY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD...AND RISING TO THE 30S CLOSER TO THE FRONT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND WEAKENING RETURNS ON UPSTREAM RADAR...NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF QPF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT EASTWARD. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND AS THE WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE NW SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS...BUT LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT BEST.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY
MID- DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO
DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH
50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...BUT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPS IN
THE 30S TO 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF MODEL ON FRIDAY BRINGS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY
S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI