Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 311742 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 124 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE. LINE OF T-STORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAD A GUST TO 36MPH HERE AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT. NOTED SOME OTHER MESONET SITES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE HAVEN`T HEARD OF ANY DAMAGE OR HAIL REPORTS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING THOUGH. INSTABILITY IS REDEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ONTARIO, AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD INDICATED THAT WE WOULD INDEED SEE THIS OCCUR, THOUGH AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THOSE TO GROW TO SEVERE LEVELS. STILL IT`S COLD ALOFT, SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE. I WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THOSE SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS I MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE REAL MESSY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE THE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP 10F, BUT THEN START TO REBOUND AS THE SUN COMES BACK OUT. I THINK FOR THE MOST PART, VERMONT AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE (BTV WAS 74 BEFORE THE RAIN), WHILE NEW YORK AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE THEIR HIGHS REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE END, I LEFT THE HIGHS ALONE -- UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR. OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO. ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE. AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE MENTION INTO TAFS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NASH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.