Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 091758 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1258 PM EST TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS AREA SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD EXIT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAX TEMPS ON SCHEDULE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT 8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF

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