Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311733 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 133 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles to northern mountain communities. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds across the northeast. A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 133 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast continues to hold up pretty well and I`ve largely just made noise-level changes to sky cover and temps as we progress into the afternoon hours across the North Country. Really is a stellar afternoon across the North Country with mostly clear skies, dry air/low humidity and temps generally in the 70s to lower 80s. Steep low-level lapse rates owing to the strong sun and warm temps helping to mix gusts into the 25 mph range at times. Recent visible satellite imagery across the northern St. Lawrence Valley shows an increase in cumulus associated with the leading edge of a cold front. Expect an increase in sky cover across the northern and central parts of the North Country but maintaining a dry forecast as airmass beneath cloud base is dry and well- mixed. Should also see a wind shift to northwest as the front brushes these northern areas later in the afternoon and into the early evening hrs. Still looking at highs into the 70s to lower/mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into eastern Vermont. Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s. Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing, thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance POPs over the area. High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off low and could lead to a wet first half of the week. Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by 5-10 degrees for this time of year. && .AVIATION /17Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR through afternoon and early evening, trending VFR with LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK overnight. Conditions trend all VFR into Wednesday. CLear skies and gusty west winds will continue through the late afternoon. Should see an increase to SCT/BKN VFR cloud cover in response to a cold front that will move across the TAFs by late aftn into mid-evening. Expect a wind shift to north around 10-12 kts then dissipating to under 5 kts by midnight. Mostly clear skies, light/calm winds and antecedent wet ground from rains of a couple of days ago should once again yield areas of radiational fog at SLK and MPV. Recent guidance suggests that crossover temps should be met around 06z, and I`ve thus started fog around this point for these two sites. Any fog then clears rapidly by 12z Wednesday to VFR few/sct fair weather cu. Winds north 3-7 kts. Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... VFR conditions with overnight IFR/LIFR fog at MPV/SLK to continue through Wednesday night. VFR with gusty south winds likely on Thursday, trending MVFR by evening associated with showers/storms with a cold front passage. VFR to then prevail Friday into the weekend, with chances for IFR/LIFR fog each evening at MPV/SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Loconto SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Loconto

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