Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232011 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 411 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED. FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST (ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY, AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO), AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE. SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN, WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. 00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND, AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH HYDROLOGY...NASH MARINE...NASH

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