Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301744 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PREVAILING NW FLOW (AROUND 10 MPH). THIN LAYER OF STRATOCU AND STRATUS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS VCNTY OF SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX NY COUNTY INTO RUTLAND COUNTY...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. GENERALLY UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY 12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR 30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY 00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO-CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE PRIMARILY VFR -- EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WORKS OUT TO BE MVFR. WITH CLOUD BASES RUNNING ABOUT 4000FT MSL, THAT MEANS SUMMITS ARE OBSCURED IN THE CLOUDS. NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE AREAS WHERE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT -- THIS IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR SLK. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, AT LEAST NOTHING THAT WOULD IMPACT VISIBILITIES. JUST TO NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT MASSENA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THINKING ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TO MINIMIZE THE FOG FORMATION PROCESSES. HOWEVER STRANGE THINGS CAN HAPPEN OUT IN MASSENA... ON FRIDAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN VFR. COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WE APPROACH 18Z FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. 18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NASH

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