Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250230 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1026 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF 700MB CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OFFSHORE LOW THROUGH ABOUT 03-06Z TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH TIME A NARROW RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOSS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CLOSELY MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PREVAILING STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS EVIDENT ON EVENING IR IMAGERY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE A SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLEARING LINE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WILL END BY 03Z OR SO. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIVE COOLING CYCLE EARLY...WITH SOME BETTER POTENTIAL LATE. GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOCALLY NEAR 32F IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION. THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING LATE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS... SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD, SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE). MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD DO IT. SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED. HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND `DACKS, LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS (3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST FOLKS LIVE. SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL, ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES. SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...HANSON

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