Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261142 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with low humidity levels will persist through tonight. Next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to below normal for the middle to latter part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 738 AM EDT Sunday...The surface ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the region. 5860-5880 m 500mb heights and 925mb temps increasing to 21-23C support highs today warming into the high 80s with low 90s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valley. Increased southerly flow will begin to enhance low level moisture and so we should see a slight increase in dew points however that will be mitigated in humidity levels by the increase in temps as well. By mid morning the southerly flow will become will become enhanced and we could see some forced channeling gusts of 18-23 mph gusts in the Champlain Valley. Should be a warm but pleasant last weekend in June.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...On Monday, a pre-frontal surface trough of low pressure will move into the region. This will bring in some scattered rain showers into the region on Monday. Models showing this feature will weaken during the day on Monday as it moves eastward. The best chance for any thunderstorms on Monday will be in the Saint lawrence valley in northern New York. SPC has this area in a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday. Will continue with low chance pops for rain showers Monday night. On Tuesday, there will be a better chance for thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday afternoon from the Adirondacks eastward across Vermont. 0-6 km bulk shear is around 40-45 knots, with surface based capes around 1000-1500 j/kg. Cloud cover across the region could limit the amount of instability, although there is a chance for few storms to produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday. This activity will be occurring ahead of a cold front that will move into the region Tuesday afternoon. Also, models show a sharp upper trough will approach the region on Tuesday from the eastern Great Lakes. Expecting rain showers to linger into Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 439 AM EDT Sunday...Models show an upper trough will move through the region on Wednesday, so have kept in chance pops for rain showers. Models now trending a bit faster with this upper trough and now have it east of the region by Wednesday night. Fair and dry weather expected from Wednesday night through Thursday night. An upper low over Canada will bring a chance for more rain showers over the region by Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High pressure remains in control and will keep generally mostly clear skies. Some light few-sct convective debris clouds at 14-16kft have filtered into northern New York but aren`t critical for aviation purposes. Winds remain light/variable at all terminals but will be picking up shortly and become southerly 5-10kts with gusts to 15 possible during the afternoon. Outlook 12Z Sunday through Thursday... 12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon. 00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Deal/MV

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