Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161322 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 922 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 921 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...NEILES HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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