Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180558 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI

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