Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 030538 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SUNNY, DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 138 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SO HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE QUICKER END TIME TO THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION. DAILY SPECIFICS... WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE. THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL. THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED. IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEW POINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...BULK OF THE RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF VERMONT AND ALL TAF SITES FORECASTS ARE RAIN FREE. LIFR CEILINGS AT KMSS KSLK KMPV EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 12Z THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR CLR. QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND EXPECT TO BE CHASING OBS WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH MORNING HOURS AS CIGS VARY UP AND DOWN IN THE LIFR LOCATIONS. DID NOT HIT VIS TOO HARD DESPITE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG FORMATION. LIGHT WEST TO NW WIND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. 00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...HANSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.