Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260730 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH MANY SPOTS CLIMBING ABOVE 60 DEGREES. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTS ESE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING WHEN BEST PVA AND MOISTURE SWING THROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NEAR NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNBLOCKED FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY THIS MORNING`S LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS. REGARDLESS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL TODAY WILL BE LIGHT SO CERTAINLY NOT A WASHOUT. LATEST PROGS SUGGEST FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET TODAY SO THE SUMMITS WILL LIKELY GET A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES SHOULD TOP OUT FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE/CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LINGERING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES/GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FOR NOW HAVE SUGGESTED THAT VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUN AS UPPER FLOW TRENDS CONFLUENT AND ANTICYCLONIC. SO DESPITE THE RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES IT SHOULDN`T BE TOO BAD OF A DAY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER IN THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BETTER MOISTRE/ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE I`VE MANTAINED CHANCE POPS. LOWER VALUES FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE SW VALUES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG 850 MB WARM THERMAL ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THUS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST AND NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND FLOW TRENDING SOUTHERLY OVER TIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE UNIFORM AND A TAD MILDER...GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH READINGS ACTUALLY TRENDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR NORTH AND EAST WITH THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING BRIEFLY EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE AN EARLY SHOWER FAR NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PBL WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH ONLY LIMITED MIXING TO ABOUT 2 KFT OR SO. THUS HESITANT TO GO TOO WARM...BUT WITH BLENDED 18Z 925 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 8-13C EAST TO WEST WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE OFFERING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST...LOWER TO MID 60S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE DACKS...AND 65 TO 70 SLV.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY DRAGS A THERMALLY STRONG BUT SOMEWHAT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS FEATURE PRETTY WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH...SO WITH INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAVE OFFERED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH I EXPECT THE OVERALL QPF TO BE RATHER LIGHT...<0.10" IN GENERAL. BEHIND THE FRONT ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD AND A RETURN TO MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S HIGHS IN THE 40S. GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND A DEEP AND SEASONALLY COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM WEST OF JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLD AIR AND LOW/MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ATTENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND DEPICTS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH CLOSES OFF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE RESULTING QPF IS FAIRLY DRY ON THE ECMWF...AND PRETTY WET ON THE GFS. HARD TO TELL 5-7 DAYS OUT WHICH WILL BE CORRECT...SO WILL PLAY SOME MID-CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT MY GUT TELLS ME THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. STAY TUNED.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS VFR AT KPBG/KBTV BUT ELSEWHERE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 10-13Z. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER ABOUT 10Z...AND INTO VERMONT AFTER 13Z LASTING JUST A FEW HOURS AT KMSS BUT LONGER AT KSLK/KMPV/KRUT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CAUSING PRECIP TO BECOME MORE TERRAIN-ORIENTED.SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT TURN WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 08-15KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONTINUES ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS. 12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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