Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281741 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL END BY TONIGHT WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD DRY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 141 PM EDT SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE OTHER THAN A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THINGS ARE DRYING OUT AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNING REVEALING SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS BUT THE TREND OF CLEARING OUT SHOULD SLOWLY TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WINDS GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20KTS FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING IN SE VT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BE GONE LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS BEFORE WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MOVING TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERCAST SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY... PROGRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING EWD ACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY DRIVE SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED 30-50 POPS ACROSS THE HIR TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING DURING TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THE END OF MARCH...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOPING MID- LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD. PROSPECTS FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S ON TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD SEE A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF STRONG P-GRADIENT. WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO +3 TO +5C ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...AND MID-UPR 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STILL REACH THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT MAY SEE THAT HAPPEN BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CAA LATER IN THE DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR CLR OVERNIGHT ALL TAF SITES AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SUBSIDE. KEPT A TEMPO OF MVFR -SN AT KSLK, OTHERWISE DRY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS THROUGH 00-06Z, AND ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY OVERDONE IT DOES MATCH ONGOING CONDITIONS. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00-04Z THEN BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH RIDGE TO WEST WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION TO 15-20KTS AT ABOUT 2500 FT. MIXING ENDS AFTER SUNSET AND TOWARD MORNING KMSS AND KSLK WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THEIR EAST. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES. 06-12Z MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...HANSON

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