Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241333 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 933 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 925 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO HOIST RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BELOW 1500 FEET. LATEST OBSERVATION SHOW DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY WORKING TWD THE SFC WITH DWPTS ALREADY IN THE TEENS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THINKING THESE WINDS WL HELP TRANSFER EVEN DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTN WITH MIN RH VALUES BTWN 15 AND 25% ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH RECENT DRY SPELL IS REASON TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH`S WL OCCUR BTWN 1PM AND 6 PM TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BRISK WINDS. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS IN SO LOCATIONS OF 20-25KTS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE FROM NRN VT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING AS MUCH...BUT AREAS EXPECTING LOWEST RH ALREADY CLEAR ACROSS SRN HALF OF CPV AND SRN VT. WITH GUSTS ALREADY 20-25KTS THIS MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST IN EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS AFTN IN SERN VT. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 18Z- 22Z. OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN THE MID TEENS TO L20S. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS BELOW 1500 FEET AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES. MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 15% AND 25% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012. NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM

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