Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141442 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 942 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 942 AM EST SUNDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES STILL VERY COLD. IN ADDITION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS OTHER THAN A BIT OF CLOUDS COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO INDICATE MORE SUN TODAY AS BUILDING HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. LASTLY THREAT FOR ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS LIMITED AS WELL AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /700 AM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 423 AM EST SUNDAY...A CLEAR AND COLD START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS TO BEGIN THE DAY. BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY DUE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT THEY ARE ALL INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARMING FOR A CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN...WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE SNOW CHANGES TO MOSTLY RAIN. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP. THE MORE QPF THAT FALLS HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY IT FALLS AS RAIN. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER...WITH SOME LIGHT ICING AS WELL. ICING PROBLEMS MAY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...DUE THE PRESENT ARCTIC AIR MASSIN PLACE AND COLD GROUND TEMPS. MAX TEMPS BY LATER TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TAPERING OFF...THEN TRENDING TOWARDS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S...SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SNOW/RAIN MIX IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TEMPS REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES TODAY. SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT BTV AND MPV DOWNWIND OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES... BTV -25 1967 MPV -29 1967 MSS -33 1967 SJBV1 -30 1967 MMNV1 -32 1967 COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -2 1979 MPV -4 1979 MSS -3 1987 SJBV1 +2 1987 MMNV1 -19 1979 COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -19 1987 MPV -19 2003 MSS -29 2003 SJBV1 -28 2003 MMNV1 -30 1979 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031- 034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NEILES CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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