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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS UPWARD TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON MORNING LOWS AND
HAVE TWEAKED UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
LIKE SUMMER AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 12Z WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING KMSS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE WITH PLENTY MORE UPSTREAM AS WELL. ONLY
CLEAR AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHICH HAS LED TO SOME BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT KMSS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO
KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR. AFTER 18Z...SHOULD SEE
A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH ALL TERMINALS SKC BY 00Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF