Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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455 FXUS61 KBTV 291844 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 244 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 139 PM EDT FRIDAY...JUST A FANTASTIC LOOKING AFTERNOON OUT THERE TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S, AND JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. CAN`T SAY MUCH MORE, GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY. CONTINUED QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SPREAD SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE SKY GRIDS. MAY ALSO MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING A BIT ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AGAIN GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING. DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEAONABLY COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, THICKENING JUST A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ONLY SPOT WHERE CLOUDS LOWER A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE CIGS WILL GO BELOW 10KFT, BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX. 12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...LAHIFF

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