Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240907 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 407 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An active period of weather is expected starting today lasting through upcoming weekend with two systems providing the North Country with a wintry mix to rain type of scenario. First system impacts our region on this afternoon with the second on Sunday, as the trend of above normal temperatures continue. Minor ice accumulation will be seen in eastern and central Vermont this afternoon and could produce a few slick spots during the evening commute. Gusty southeast downslope winds along the Western Slopes are possible on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1248 AM EST Saturday...No significant changes from the going forecast. Previous discussions follow. Gusty winds remain in the Champlain Valley as the funneling effect has been in full force. We`ve seen winds gust as high as 52mph at Burton Island on the Lake. The winds should slowly weaken overnight as high pressure starts to build in. Some light ground fog as also developed across the region mainly where its rained on what remains of the snowpack so I added some patchy fog mention based on some wind thresholds. Otherwise forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion...Overall forecast remains in good shape for this evening and overnight as low pressure passing northeast through the Great Lakes drags a warm front through the region this evening, and the trailing cold front during the overnight. Overrunning precipitation took a bit longer to move into the region, which was a good thing as it allowed surface temps across much of the area to warm above freezing. Still seeing some pockets of freezing or slightly sub-freezing temps across portions of the eastern Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountain spine, where a mix of freezing rain, rain, and sleet continues to be possible this evening, but as surface temps continue to climb through the midnight hour we should see any mix change to plain rain by the day`s end. With this in mind, will keep current advisories in place, except for northern Franklin County in NY which we`ll cancel based on surface temps rising above freezing this hour. After midnight, cold front tracks into the forecast area from the northwest with precipitation generally diminishing but some upslope rain/snow showers will likely continue until dawn across the higher peaks with minimal snow accumulation expected. High pressure builds into the region by Saturday morning with morning clouds slowly decreasing to a partly sunny afternoon. Temps overnight don`t budge too much as cold air advection behind the front isn`t particularly strong so we`re looking at lows only in the low/mid 30s, which will set the stage for Saturday highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Temps do cool off Saturday night as skies briefly clear under high pressure, but after midnight clouds will increase again ahead of our next system for Sunday. More on that below. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 406 AM EST Saturday...Precipitation will wind down Sunday evening as the occluded front exits to our east. There may be a bit of rain or freezing rain east of the Greens early Sunday night, but overall expect dry conditions through Monday with high pressure building to our south. A weak secondary front will push through the region Monday afternoon, but it will be a dry frontal passage. Monday`s temperatures will be similar to Sunday, perhaps even a few degrees warmer as we`ll see some sunshine by afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 406 AM EST Saturday...High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through Tuesday, leading to fair weather. Things become a little less certain thereafter as the long range models differ on a possible frontal passage for Tuesday night into Wednesday, which would produce some light rain or snow showers. The biggest discrepancies come later in the week, specifically Thursday night through Friday. The GFS brings a 989mb low into the southern Great Lakes later Thursday, then develops a 992mb secondary low just off Long Island by Friday morning. The ECMWF meanwhile is weaker and slower with the primary system, and develops the secondary low much further south. With these differences, have stayed close to a model blend for the end of the week in regards to temperatures, PoPs, and weather type. Overall, expect temperatures to remain above seasonal normal through much of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...MVFR conditions across the region overnight with periods of IFR at SLK/MSS improving by early morning. MVFR ceilings lift to VFR across the area after 12Z Saturday with northwest winds becoming gusty at 10-20kts. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Definite RA, Definite PL, Definite FZRA, Likely SN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026-027-029>031-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Deal/Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Deal/Lahiff/Neiles

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