Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272337 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 737 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 725 PM EDT Friday...our first warm and muggy night of the summer is expected tonight with current temperatures still in the 80s with dewpoints mainly in the 60s...have noted a few upper 60s to near 70f dewpoints in the saint lawrence valley. this heat and moisture has created surface based cape values between 1500 and 1800 j/kg across our region...but triggers are very weak. In addition...rap soundings show deep dry layer between 850 to 500mb with some warming around 600mb...indicating building hghts/ridge. given these factors and latest radar trends have trimmed back pops to slight chance through early this evening...with temps slowly falling back into the 70s. all covered well in current forecast. Warm temperatures continue into the overnight with isolated showers/thunderstorms coming to an end shortly after sunset as mid level drying continues to suppress convective development. Temperatures will fall into the 60s with generally clearing skies as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend. Warm air continues to filter in with increasing dewpoints. With plentiful warming, instability will increase on Saturday. While there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during the afternoon. Max temperatures expected to be similar to today, 80s to low 90s, but more clouds possible as we see an increase in moisture with PWATS nearing 1.5 inches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper ridge will be over the region Saturday night with fair and dry weather expected, but with lows mainly in the 60s. Sunday will start out dry, but with temperatures climbing to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Adirondacks by late Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the remainder of the region during Sunday afternoon. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue into Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper shortwave will approach from the eastern Great Lakes on Monday, with more showers and thunderstorms likely. Expecting any shower or thunderstorm activity to diminish early Monday night as the shortwave moves east of the region. High pressure to build into the region on Tuesday and will remain through Thursday. Models also show the upper ridge will reestablish itself across the north country Tuesday night through Thursday, with fair and dry weather expected, along with cooler temperatures. Models showing a cold front will approach the region late Thursday night and Friday, with some timing differences on when precipitation will begin. Have stayed with super-blend pops for Thursday night and Friday, and will have low chance pops in for showers. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period...with SCT mid-upr level clouds overnight. A few guidance sources suggest BR/HZ at SLK/MSS during the pre-dawn hours, but higher clouds may interfere with cooling enough to prevent much in the way of vsby restrictions, and have left out of the TAFs for now. South-SW winds 5-10kts will become light and variable overnight...and then becoming light NW-N during the daylight hours Saturday. An isold shower or t-storm is possible Saturday afternoon, but limited coverage/probability precludes any mention in the TAFs at this point. Areas with the greatest chance for any showers or thunderstorm activity will be the Adirondacks, southern Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont. Outlook 00z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.
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&& .CLIMATE... The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was April 17, 2002. Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as follows: 5/27 5/28 BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978 St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/Taber SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Banacos/KGM CLIMATE...KGM

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