Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272047 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Westerly flow over our area is south of a weak frontal system in Quebec. It will bring partly skies south to mostly cloudy skies in the north along with breezy and mild conditions this afternoon. Weak high pressure tonight will yield fair weather and seasonably mild temperatures tonight. Periods of rain with well above normal temps return late Tuesday into Wednesday as a slow moving front moves across the region. This could produce more rises on our above normal stream levels. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly mountain snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 347 PM EST Monday...A weak ridge of high pressure moves across the region overnight and as the winds turn calm expect a very shallow inversion to develop as radiational cooling will drop our overnight lows into the 20s. How cold it gets will depend on the how clear the skies get but looking more clearing north than south. On Tuesday...Warm advection gets underway with increasing clouds and a chance of light rain showers mainly mid afternoon onward from SW to NE. 925 mb temps rise to 1 to 3 deg C by 18Z which should give us high temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EST Monday...West to southwest flow aloft aloft will develop over the area through the entire period. This will lead to temperature and moisture advection and we will once again see above normal temperatures through the period. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s and in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday. With the temperatures on Wednesday... there will likely be some more record highs set. Of note will be the lows Tuesday night...which will be above freezing. So we will once again have an extended period of conditions favorable for more ice breakup in rivers plus new snowmelt. Showers will be off an on during the period...especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. Standardized anomalies for precipitable water will be three times higher than normal...so will need to keep an eye on potential precipitation amounts. At this time we could be looking at a half inch to three quarters of an inch in the Tuesday through Wednesday night time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 338 AM EST Monday...Upper trough will be moving across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will be bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. Temperatures will also be falling and we will be trending toward below normal temperatures as we head to the weekend with northwest flow aloft becoming established over the region. Drier air will also be moving in and precipitation chances will be pretty small as a result with temperatures cold enough for precipitation to be in the form of snow showers. && .AVIATION /20Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will pull east of the region during the morning hours today. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through TAF period. Only aviation concern will be the gusty pressure gradient winds across the region today. With steep lapse rates and decent mixing expect gusts of 20-30kts at most TAF sites through the afternoon. The low level jet at 850mb will likely cause some issues with wind shear and low level turbulence especially over northern New York, but with the gusts mentioned in the TAF`s I opted to not include any mention of LLWS in the TAFs. Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Saturday... 18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers with variable cigs from VFR to IFR before low pressure and cold front crosses the region Wed evening. 06Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Becoming Mainly VFR but ocnl snow showers/flurries and MVFR/IFR conditions. 12z Saturday onward...Mainly VFR under high pressure. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 100 PM EST Monday...The last river in flood is the Barton River in Coventry. The river level are receding and expect this river to go back below flood stage this evening. We continue to watch Tuesday eve through Wed time period closely for the potential for additional river rises associated with several rounds of showers. This expected rainfall along with much above normal temperatures will result in additional snow melt and the potential for river rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential impacts. && .CLIMATE... We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as follows: Burlington - 59 set in 1954 Montpelier - 53 set in 1991 St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954 Massena - 49 set in 1954 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG/Deal HYDROLOGY...Taber CLIMATE...Evenson

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