Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301917 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 317 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES IN MAX TEMPS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS POPPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS CHANCES ACROSS VT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY... SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. 850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. 00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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