Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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246 FXUS61 KBTV 162111 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 411 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country through midday Tuesday. A low pressure area will move northeast through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. A secondary low pressure area will develop south of long island early Tuesday night and will move slowly east on Wednesday. Expecting a mix of precipitation types to develop over the north country late Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 411 PM EST Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country through midday on Tuesday, with fair and dry weather expected. Models in good agreement on keeping the region dry through 18Z on Tuesday. Models indicating precipitation will move into the region mainly between 21Z to 00z on Tuesday. Have gone with mainly chance pops for late Tuesday afternoon, as it will take awhile to saturate the lower portion of the atmosphere, given the dry air mass already in place.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 411 PM EST Monday...a weak surface low pressure area will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley Wednesday night, but models showing a weak secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island Tuesday night and move slowly east on Wednesday. This secondary will help to keep in colder air locked in over eastern Vermont, with mainly snow expected there. Have put up a winter weather advisory for Tuesday night into wednesday morning for south central vermont, as models showing heavier QPF there. Expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow over south central Vermont by Wednesday. Expecting mainly lighter amounts of snow and sleet Tuesday night and Wednesday over the remainder of the region. Have also put up a winter wx advisory for southwestern Saint Lawrence county in northern New York Tuesday night, as guidance indicating up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation there. Expecting precipitation to lighten and slowly taper off Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 324 PM EST Monday...The second half of the week will see a return of high pressure with fair weather, light winds and mild temperatures. Late wednesday night into Thursday will see an upper level through off to the east of the CWA which will bring lingering snow showers. Showers will mainly be over higher elevations during the early morning hours and then just over NEK as the trough continues to push east. Beyond this point the high takes hold and keeps any chance of precipitation well to the south, with Saturday afternoon providing the only chance of very isolated snow showers across the Central Adirondacks. 925mb Temps range from -1C to -3C on the GFS through Sun while the ECMWF is a little warmer a +2C to -2C through the same period. Either way this should yield mild temps in the upper 30`s to 40`s and possibly warmer for the end of the week through the weekend while overnight lows range in the lower 20`s to 30`s with some of the normally colder locations possibly dropping into the teens on a few evenings.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the period with high pressure. Winds will be south to southwesterly and occasionally gusty to 20 knots at KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMSS this afternoon. After 00Z winds abate to light and variable with VFR conditions continuing through the end of the period. 18Z Tuesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow, mixed pcpn and/or light rain depending on location. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow shower activity. 00Z Friday onward...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ010-012-018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...JMG/MV

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