Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232338 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 738 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CPV...LEAVING LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPBG/KMPV AND KRUT MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...WITH VSBYS REDUCING TO MVFR/IFR. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW AT KMSS AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VRB AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AT ALL BUT KMSS EARLY THIS EVENING. BEFORE DRYING NW FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP...WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL. BY 03Z/04Z...EXPECT NW WINDS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA...AT 6-10KTS...DISSIPATING THE PATCHY FOG. VFR LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH FEW- SCT BY SUNRISE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12KTS CONTINUING OUT OF THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. 00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM

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