Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
614 FXUS61 KBTV 051959 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 359 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW-EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERCAST SKIES TRANSITION TO VARIABLE CLOUDS TONIGHT. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 322 PM EDT THURSDAY...WITH EXCEPTION FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, OVERCAST SKIES STILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LOFTED NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ALSO ARE HELPING TO LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER NOVA SCOTIA. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT EAST, WHICH IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CLINTON, ESSEX AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT, MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S NORTH WITH MORE CLEARING, TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH. FOR FRIDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIST FRIDAY - AGAIN, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH - THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD SHOULD SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. I`VE SHOWN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH SCANT DYNAMICAL FORCING AT PLAY TOMORROW, ANY SHOWERS WOULD TEND TO BE DRIVEN BY ANY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. 925 MB TEMPS OF +11 TO +13C WOULD SUPPORT WARMER HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY - IN FACT THE 12Z METMOS GOES FOR 70 AT BURLINGTON. I`VE LEANED A BIT COOLER AS SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD GO TO PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUD AND LIMIT STRONGER HEATING. STILL, LOOKING AT MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. THOSE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE CONSENSUS IS STILL FAIRLY WEEK. BASED ON SOME OF THE SREF PROB`S MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RANGED FROM 25 - 500 J/KG WITH THE MEANS CLOSER 100-250 J/KG. GIVEN THAT RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WAITING ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A BIT MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING HOWEVER THE CANADIAN IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SATURDAY`S CLOUD COVER. IF THERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOME AREAS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. HOWEVER IF WE REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER EXPECT MORE IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY... A MORE POTENT NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND SO I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. THAT LEADS TO MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY BEING IN THE MID 50S WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START THE WEEK WILL BE HOW GUSTY THE WINDS ARE ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A 70-80KT 500MB JET, AND CORRESPONDING 40-50KT JET AT 700MB, THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS A BIT OF DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE OF HOW CLOSE IT IS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE SPREAD I DID SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOTH WINDS AND GUSTS FOR MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...ONGOING VFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO AN BKN/OVC VFR DECK BY LATE THIS AFTN FOR ALL TAFS. GREATER CLEARING SHOULD THEN TAKE PLACE PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS NORTH 8-12 KTS BECOMING 4-9 KTS THROUGH 12Z. AS UPPER LOW NEARS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY, EXPECT DIURNAL SCT CU TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN AREAS WITH MORE OF A BKN/OVC CU DECK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND ADIRONDACKS. POSSIBILITY OF UNRESTRICTED DIURNAL SHOWERS FOR SLK, RUT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY - 12Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. VFR/MVFR DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT RUT AND SLK, ENDING BY 00Z EACH DAY. 12Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR IN FRONTAL SHOWERS. 06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. TUESDAY ONWARD: VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...LOCONTO SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.