Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200718 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 318 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1242 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS AFFECTING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT CLEARING TAKING PLACE ELSEWHERE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL DUE TO THE CHANGING CLOUD CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE FCSTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TRRN ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLW. LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WL PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLW WL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL EVENT ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP 850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLW IS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE CPV...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR CWA. WL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTIONS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER WITH BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BTWN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON TUES. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LATEST IR SATL TRENDS SHOW LOW CLOUDS FINALLY BREAKING UP ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...WITH CLRING SLOWLY PUSHING INTO VT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV BTWN 06-10Z THIS MORNING. ALSO...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD STARTING TO APPROACH THE SLV THIS MORNING WL OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED VCSH AT MSS/MPV/SLK TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY TWD TUESDAY MORNING OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS WL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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