Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251947 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 247 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE A MILD CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOST VALLEY SECTIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1214 PM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH AS NO RIVER FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE CRESTING OR STARTING TO RECEDED ATTM. THIS TREND WL CONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS...PREVENTING GOOD MIXING IS RESULTING IN SFC WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 40 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED ACRS THE SLV AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. THEREFORE THE WIND HEADLINES HAVE ALSO BEEN CANCELLED. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE LATEST SFC TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 15DEG ABOVE LATE DECEMBER NORMALS. AS SFC LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BUILDS EWD INTO THE NERN CONUS TONIGHT...AND REMAINS THRU SATURDAY. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTEROON. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR ISOLD RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40-44F RANGE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST VALLEY SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 233 PM EST THURSDAY...BIGGEST ISSUE IN EXTENDED PERIOD IS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND COLD FRONT LINGERING POPS ON SUNDAY WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. UPPER FLOW IS WESTERLY IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MID WEEK ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PLUNGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CONUS. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C ON SUNDAY FALL TO NEGATIVE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY. FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION AND NO ADDITIONAL COOLING OR WARMING FOR THAT MATTER. GRIDDED MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR TUES AND WEDS COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND WEREN`T SUPPORTED BY 925 MB TEMPS SO ADJUSTED THOSE UP A DEGREE OR TWO. FROM MID WEEK ON WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COLD TEMPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO AND HAD TO DRAW IN POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WEST ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MVFR AT SLK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING (PBG SHOULD BE LAST TO LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z). COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AT SLK WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS AT MSS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR STILL POSSIBLE. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHC OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TODAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS...AND CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UPWARD OF 40 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD 15-25 KTS LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI MARINE...WFO BTV

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