Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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042 FXUS61 KBTV 251921 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning. Behind this system a return to dry, late summer warmth is expected for Friday afternoon into Saturday of the upcoming weekend. The next chance of showers will occur by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with another weak front, followed by more warm and dry weather for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...A rather uneventful, late summer night is expected across the area as variable clouds associated with a weak mid-level trough skirt across the area. Fairly deep subtropical moisture (PWATS to 1.75 inches) will remain in place, though without large-scale synoptic forcing or a front to produce low level convergence the coverage of showers looks scant at best, focused most across our southern zones overnight per latest model output and WV trends. Accordingly I`ve lowered pops into the slight to low chance range tonight with many areas remaining dry or seeing only a light sprinkle here and there. That said it will feel quite muggy as surface dewpoints will generally average in the 65 to 72 range under light winds, which won`t provide ideal sleeping conditions. Low temperatures similar to last night, mainly mid 60s to lower 70s. On Friday the weak mid-level trough will exit east with any morning showers/sprinkles ending by noon under gradually clearing skies east to west. Synoptic background flow remains southwesterly with neutral height falls indicative of little airmass change. Averaged model 925 mb thermal progs from 18-21Z are in the 19-22C range supporting late afternoon highs mainly from 80 to 86F with perhaps a few upper 80s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Despite the warmth dewpoints will be gradually lowering in the upper 50s to lower 60s by late afternoon so humidity levels will feel tolerable. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...Fairly quiet as general ridging aloft and at the surface will be in firm control. Zero/Zilch/Zippo PoPs the entire period. Temperatures will continue to be above normal (both day and night). Some differences for Saturday temperatures between the GFS and NAM. NAM is a few degrees warmer because it is slightly faster in moving the ridge to our east and allowing a more west/southwest flow aloft to develop. Either way, the differences are only a few degrees, so I split the difference. Lots of upper 70s to lower 80s with some mid 80s in the southern valleys. Hopefully everyone can take advantage of the weather and enjoy it! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...12z guidance suite is in fairly good agreement. Really only 1 organized system for the period, and that will be an upper trough that will slide across the region late Sunday/early Monday. The flow pattern is progressive, so the showers will pass across the region fairly quickly. Minimal instability as well (especially since the timing looks to be overnight), so only a low chance of any thunderstorm. Looking at primarily rain showers. Other than that, the region will be in a west/northwest flow around a large ridge centered over the mid-west. With the trajectory of the flow, temperatures will remain above normal (a solid 4-7F degrees). Still some hints that a weak disturbance may zip down on that northwest flow mid week and perhaps spark a shower or two. However, 12z GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and details, so have only token (15-25%) chances of showers for mid-week. That means a much higher chance of mostly sunny and dry conditions. All-in-all, it`s fairly typical to have a stretch of this kind of weather at this point late in the summer. && .AVIATION /19Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18Z Friday...SCT/BKN VFR/MVFR cigs expected through 12Z Friday, then trending VFR all terminals with clearing skies thereafter. Weak mid-level energy will swing through the area into tonight with widely scattered showers under a deep, moist airmass. Given expected paucity of shower coverage, most of the forecast period will remain dry. Highest coverage of MVFR to occur at KMSS/KSLK through 21Z, then better coverage in the 03-12Z time frame at many terminals. Did trend away from climo IFR/fog at KSLK/KMPV as offered by MOS guidance and other numerical output given stronger flow atop the nocturnal boundary layer in the 500-1000 AGL range. Fog could occur but given the winds confidence is low on occurrence and trended MVFR/br accordingly. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is now operational. Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday... 18Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR possible. 00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Nash SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.