Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 280458
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1158 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
Westerly flow over our area is south of a weak frontal system
in Quebec. It will bring partly skies south to mostly cloudy
skies in the north along with breezy and mild conditions this
afternoon. Weak high pressure tonight will yield fair weather
and seasonably mild temperatures tonight. Periods of rain with
well above normal temps return late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
slow moving front moves across the region. This could produce
more rises on our above normal stream levels. Much cooler air
arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly
mountain snow showers.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
As of 1129 PM EST Monday...Update to increase hourly
temps...especially near RUT as clouds and winds have continued
to hold them into the mid 40s thru 11 PM. Otherwise...a 1 to 3
degree adjustment up across most of the cwa was needed for
hourly tweaks. Also...continued to mention schc/chc pops
associated with weak weak band of flurries/sprinkles into the
southern SLV and western dacks...based on latest radar trends.
Precip is very light and mainly not reaching the ground based on
observations at ART/GTB. Rest of forecast remains on track.
Previous discussion below: A weak ridge of high pressure moves
across the region overnight and as the winds turn calm expect a
very shallow inversion to develop as radiational cooling will
drop our overnight lows into the 20s. How cold it gets will
depend on the how clear the skies get but looking more clearing
north than south.
On Tuesday...Warm advection gets underway with increasing
clouds and a chance of light rain showers mainly mid afternoon
onward from SW to NE. 925 mb temps rise to 1 to 3 deg C by 18Z
which should give us high temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 PM EST Monday...On Tuesday night a warm front will
lift Northwards across our CWA as a low pressure system lifts
Northeastward across the Great Lakes area. We will have
scattered rain showers at this time with overnight minimum
temperatures achieved early in the night, very mild, then
increasing with warm air advection through the overnight hours.
Brisk southerly flow is expected. Looks like there will be a
chance for some elevated convection, mainly from 06-12z
Wednesday morning and have chance of TS mentioned in the
forecast during that time.
Wednesday will be very warm, likely setting more max
temperature records for the day to start out the month of March.
Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low
pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes region eastward on
Wednesday, and we should remain in the warm sector all day. Have
mentioned stratiform rain categorical on Wednesday. Feel that
best chance for thunder will be south of our forecast area.
Winds will continue to be strong and gusty out of the South.
Wednesday night the cold front will finally cross the area. Any
rain showers remaining will change over to snow showers with
sharp cold front dropping temperatures into the teens and 20s
overnight. Wednesday night the winds will veer around to
Northwesterly behind the front and will see some enhancement in
the Northwest facing slopes with a bit favorable orographic
flow. At this time looks like our QPF totals will range from
around a half an inch to an inch.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 PM EST Monday...Expect a near normal day on Thursday
with snow showers ending as system pulls further east and away
from the region. Upper level flow flattens out and a ridge of
surface high pressure builds over the area. Below normal
temperatures are expected for Friday through Saturday night.
Temperatures return to above normal then for the end of the
forecast period as high pressure sets up off the Carolina coast
for Sunday and Monday. GFS and ECMWF both show a system to
impact the region from the Monday night through Wednesday
timeframe, though huge discrepancies are evident at this time.
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected the
through the period as a weak ridge of high pressure will be over
the region. A warm front will approach the region Tuesday
afternoon with a chance of light rain showers developing over
northern New York between 18Z-21z Tuesday, and then across the
Champlain valley and Vermont between 21z-23Z Tuesday. Expecting
some areas of MVFR conditions in light rain showers, mainly
after 00Z Wednesday.
Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
06Z Wednesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers
with variable cigs from VFR to IFR before low pressure and cold
front crosses the region Wed evening.
06Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Becoming Mainly VFR but ocnl snow
showers/flurries and MVFR/IFR conditions.
12z Saturday onward...Mainly VFR under high pressure.
As of 400 PM EST Monday...We continue to watch Tuesday night
through Wednesday night time period closely for the potential
for additional river rises associated with several rounds of
showers and warm temperatures. Additional snow melt and the
potential for river rises...especially given the already high
levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our
areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous
event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to
monitor for potential impacts.
We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our
forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as
Burlington - 59 set in 1954
Montpelier - 53 set in 1991
St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954
Massena - 49 set in 1954