Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 180550
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Several small weather disturbances will drive periods with hit
or miss, off and on showers throughout this week. Lower
elevations will mainly stay rain, and if there is snow,
accumulations will be minor. Most snowfall is expected at higher
summits. Temperatures are expected to be near to below seasonal
normals, with the coldest weather expected Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 131 AM EDT Monday...The forecast is largely on track so
only minor edits were made. Increased PoPs a bit along the far
northern Greens and in the Northeast Kingdom as snow showers
have been increasing a bit in coverage in these areas this
evening. There should be scattered snow showers here for much
of the night. There have even been minor accumulations in the
mountains around Jay. Adjusted sky cover and temperatures
slightly to match observations. Previous discussion follows...
Previous Discussion...Surface low pressure is on its way out
towards Quebec City, but an upper level low remains spinning
just northwest of Montreal. With steepening lapse rates and some
forcing from the upper low, scattered to numerous showers have
developed across northern New York. There have been several
showers with reports of graupel and/or pea-sized hail.
Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal today, with 40s
to lower 50s in parts of the Champlain and Connecticut River
Valleys. The Adirondacks have been stuck in the upper 30s due to
the more extensive shower coverage, with Saranac Lake reporting
snow from time to time.
Despite cold advection, continued west winds and clouds should
keep temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s over the region.
Without daytime heating, shower activity should be at a minimum
overnight. Then on Monday, a trough will swing southeast on the
backside of the departing and decaying upper low. There is a
modest axis of frontogenetic forcing, but lapse rates will not
be quite as good due to high temperatures only in the mid 30s to
lower 40s, and the airmass will be drier overall. So for
tomorrow, it will be another day of hit or miss showers, but
there may be some slight focus in a ragged, broken line. After
that, it appears a combination of lingering low level moisture
and perhaps a bit of lake enhanced shower activity continues
with snow showers on the summits into Tuesday. Reinforced colder
air will send temperatures down towards normal values in the
upper teens to upper 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...Our weather will remain somewhat
showery as a weak low pressure system will lift north across our
area. With the flow out of the west on Tuesday and southwest on
Tuesday night, we may also see some lake effect showers in the
southern part of the St Lawrence valley. Maximum temperatures
will be below seasonal normals on Tuesday with highs only
reaching the lower to upper 30s. Minimum temperatures on Tuesday
night will dip into the teens to upper 20s, coldest in the
Northeast Kingdom away from any lake effect clouds in Northern
New York.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...Additional rain and snow showers will
continue Wednesday into Wednesday night as upper level trough,
weak surface low and some shortwave energy passes through. Some
cold air will settle over the region for Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures will only reach the mid 20s to lower 30s for
those two days. Currently, Thursday night looks to be the
coldest of the period with minimum temperatures dipping into the
single digits and teens above zero. Headed into the weekend it
looks like we can have another system to bring some light
precipitation, but not a lot of model to model or run to run
consistency at this time. We`ll continue to keep an eye on it as
we head through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions should persist through the
night into the day on Monday at all the terminals except SLK, though
ceilings will be gradually falling a bit. SLK is currently MVFR
and should stay that way. During the day today, there will be
isolated to scattered showers that will briefly reduce
visibilities, especially at terminals outside the broad valleys.
These showers will likely be snow at SLK so brief reductions to
MVFR or possibly IFR are expected there. Visibilities at the
rest of the terminals will likely only briefly fall to MVFR or
lower VFR. These showers will continue into the evening before
slowly diminishing overnight. Ceilings will lower farther Monday
night and MVFR conditions are likely to develop at most
terminals. Winds will shift from westerly to more northwesterly
during the day today and increase a bit, with gusts up to 20 KTs
possible. Winds will slowly diminish a bit Monday night.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely
SHSN, Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski