Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180550 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 150 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several small weather disturbances will drive periods with hit or miss, off and on showers throughout this week. Lower elevations will mainly stay rain, and if there is snow, accumulations will be minor. Most snowfall is expected at higher summits. Temperatures are expected to be near to below seasonal normals, with the coldest weather expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 131 AM EDT Monday...The forecast is largely on track so only minor edits were made. Increased PoPs a bit along the far northern Greens and in the Northeast Kingdom as snow showers have been increasing a bit in coverage in these areas this evening. There should be scattered snow showers here for much of the night. There have even been minor accumulations in the mountains around Jay. Adjusted sky cover and temperatures slightly to match observations. Previous discussion follows... Previous Discussion...Surface low pressure is on its way out towards Quebec City, but an upper level low remains spinning just northwest of Montreal. With steepening lapse rates and some forcing from the upper low, scattered to numerous showers have developed across northern New York. There have been several showers with reports of graupel and/or pea-sized hail. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal today, with 40s to lower 50s in parts of the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. The Adirondacks have been stuck in the upper 30s due to the more extensive shower coverage, with Saranac Lake reporting snow from time to time. Despite cold advection, continued west winds and clouds should keep temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s over the region. Without daytime heating, shower activity should be at a minimum overnight. Then on Monday, a trough will swing southeast on the backside of the departing and decaying upper low. There is a modest axis of frontogenetic forcing, but lapse rates will not be quite as good due to high temperatures only in the mid 30s to lower 40s, and the airmass will be drier overall. So for tomorrow, it will be another day of hit or miss showers, but there may be some slight focus in a ragged, broken line. After that, it appears a combination of lingering low level moisture and perhaps a bit of lake enhanced shower activity continues with snow showers on the summits into Tuesday. Reinforced colder air will send temperatures down towards normal values in the upper teens to upper 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...Our weather will remain somewhat showery as a weak low pressure system will lift north across our area. With the flow out of the west on Tuesday and southwest on Tuesday night, we may also see some lake effect showers in the southern part of the St Lawrence valley. Maximum temperatures will be below seasonal normals on Tuesday with highs only reaching the lower to upper 30s. Minimum temperatures on Tuesday night will dip into the teens to upper 20s, coldest in the Northeast Kingdom away from any lake effect clouds in Northern New York. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...Additional rain and snow showers will continue Wednesday into Wednesday night as upper level trough, weak surface low and some shortwave energy passes through. Some cold air will settle over the region for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will only reach the mid 20s to lower 30s for those two days. Currently, Thursday night looks to be the coldest of the period with minimum temperatures dipping into the single digits and teens above zero. Headed into the weekend it looks like we can have another system to bring some light precipitation, but not a lot of model to model or run to run consistency at this time. We`ll continue to keep an eye on it as we head through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions should persist through the night into the day on Monday at all the terminals except SLK, though ceilings will be gradually falling a bit. SLK is currently MVFR and should stay that way. During the day today, there will be isolated to scattered showers that will briefly reduce visibilities, especially at terminals outside the broad valleys. These showers will likely be snow at SLK so brief reductions to MVFR or possibly IFR are expected there. Visibilities at the rest of the terminals will likely only briefly fall to MVFR or lower VFR. These showers will continue into the evening before slowly diminishing overnight. Ceilings will lower farther Monday night and MVFR conditions are likely to develop at most terminals. Winds will shift from westerly to more northwesterly during the day today and increase a bit, with gusts up to 20 KTs possible. Winds will slowly diminish a bit Monday night. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Myskowski

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