Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020508 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 108 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A WELCOMED RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR TOMORROW AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER THIS EVENING, THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 105 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CRNT OBS AND KEEP CLOUDS IN FCST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CENTRAL CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU 07Z...WITH QPF VALUES ONLY AROUND A TRACE. IR SATL PIC SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE OVER THE SLV AND CPV WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FAIRLY NON-EVENTFUL AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, EXPECT A SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WHICH WILL BE WELCOME FOR MOST AS WE APPROACH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS BOTH TOMORROW AND ON FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLY COOL MAINLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S IN ALL BUT THE COOLEST OUTLYING SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER BACKING OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/CMC/GFS/EC 12Z RUNS SHOW A WEAKLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH MODERATE RH PROFILES. THE CONSENSUS ISN`T THERE HOWEVER IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE HOWEVER AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE CMC BOTH HAVE A NARROW RIBBON ON DRIER AIR AT THE SOUTHER EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER RH PROFILE. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH A WEAK REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER THE AIR IS SO DRY TO BEGIN WITH, THAT IT WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT RATHER JUST PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION THE CHANCES FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE MARGINAL AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE BEST THE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO I FOCUSED THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S I REALLY DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THUS I DIDN`T MENTION ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN HOW WEAK AND SPARSE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE, EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY LIGHT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. SUNDAY THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THERE COULD SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT BOTH THE 850 AND 700 MB FLOW BRINGING 14C TO 17C 850 TEMPS MEANING MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER MANITOBA IN CANADA WITH A DECENT LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THAT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUITY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WITH DECENT WARMING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED THAT IS I HAVEN`T MENTIONED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BUT AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME EXPECT WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SHOWERS HAVE EITHER MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL LINE THAT IS MOVING INTO MPV BUT SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE TEMPORARY MVFR UNTIL 01Z AS IT PASSES. PAST THAT POINT MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH KSLK SEEING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT UP UNTIL SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...RJS/MV

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