


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --099 FXUS61 KBTV 011126 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 726 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout much of today as a series of fronts traverse the region. Dry weather prevails through Wednesday before shower chances increase later this week, with seasonable temperatures throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning into the afternoon as a series of fronts traverse across the region. Currently, a warm front continues to push through, with areas of showers across the region this morning with the cold front expected to arrive later this afternoon. While several rounds of showers are expected, there is still some uncertainty as to if skies will clear ahead of the cold front and how much instability will be available later this afternoon for convective development. A few SPC continues to maintain a Marginal Risk of severe weather across southern portions of the forecast area, with a few stronger storms possible. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier conditions will filter into the region as winds become more northwesterly. Overnight low temperatures look to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region, with portions of the broader valleys dropping into the mid 60s. The cooler and drier conditions will continue into Wednesday, with a brief period of high pressure nosing into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will warm into the 80s, with mostly sunny skies expected by the afternoon making for a pleasant day across the region. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will feature some showers with possible thunderstorms as an upper level trough crosses the area along with upper level shortwave energy as well. Minimum temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday night followed by maximum temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s on Thursday. Best chance for showers will be during the day Thursday with best vorticity advection during that time, and with daytime heating will have some modest instability and have mention of thunderstorms as well. As upper level trough moves into our area, a cold core aloft will be over head and this will not be favorable for strong to severe storms. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 213 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night onwards will start out with below normal temperatures, but trend back above normal Saturday through Monday. Showers will diminish Thursday evening as the shortwave passes to the east and we lose daytime heating. Surface high pressure begins to build in on Friday and bring an end to the rain chances. Dry weather should prevail through Saturday before shower chances increase for Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 12Z WEDNESDAY...Variable flight conditions across the region this morning as showers continue to move through this morning. Flight conditions currently range anywhere from VFR to IFR, with precipitation bringing brief periods of reduced visibilities and some lower ceilings. These showers and possible thunderstorms can be expected to continue for the next several hours, with conditions expected to improve back towards VFR this afternoon around 21Z or so once a cold front passes through and drier conditions filter into the region with clouds become more scattered overnight. Since conditions are variable within these showers, a lot of PROB30 groups were utilized over the next several hours. Southerly winds will become more westerly throughout the TAF period, generally 5 to 10 knots this afternoon becoming more light and variable overnight. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kremer