Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 242325 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 625 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL, BUT I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF SKY COVER, POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. I`VE TRIED TO BETTER SHOW SKY TRENDS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SANDWICHED BETWEEN LAYERS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINE TO FILL IN FROM W TO E THIS EVENING. FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WHICH PER RAP ANALYSES IS STILL NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA. THESE WILL SPREAD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORTLY. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH I`M NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW SQUALLS AS CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW (GENERALLY UNDER 1 KM AGL AS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS). I`VE TIMED ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM AND SWEEP FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK D-2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS, I`VE MADE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM 07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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