Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020039 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 839 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 835 PM EDT SATURDAY...700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD POOL ALOFT. CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY...WITH REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL (HAIL REPORT FROM MADRID NY). ALSO ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS FRANKLIN/LAMOILLE COUNTIES IN NWRN VT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KSLK/KMPV/KMSS BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z. 12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/MV EQUIPMENT...JMG

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