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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 161908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 302 PM EDT SUNDAY...A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NEAR-RECORD OR RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY NOSES INTO THE
REGION...ALSO EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX...ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR MOST...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE A
CIRRUS CANOPY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE SKIES WILL
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL SLACKEN FIRST. EXPECTING LOWS GENERALLY -5 TO
-20 ACROSS NEW YORK AND 0 TO -10 ACROSS VERMONT...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS LOW AS -15. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR RECORDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 302 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
15-25 DEGREES.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR-IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...WITH
PERHAPS SOME -20 DEGREE READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL.

SOUTHWEST FLOW FINALLY KICKS IN ALOFT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. WILL SEE SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY 5 TO
15...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 0 IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF FORECAST AREA INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND WE GET INTO RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
30S.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATER IN THE DAY. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FRONTS PROGRESS SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY
BLOCKING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC. AIRMASS MILD ENOUGH
DURING THIS PERIOD SO THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECT RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN VALLEYS AND MAINLY
SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 40.

DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
DEPARTS. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT.

OUR RESPITE FROM INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS NEXT SYSTEM
SLATED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY WITH SNOW/RAIN EXPECTED.
TEMPS FRIDAY/SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SKY COND...MAINLY VFR WITH SKC...SCT-
BKN035-045 BFR 22Z SUN AND AFT 12Z MON. MVFR IN SLK THRU 22Z
SUNDAY WITH BKN020.

PRECIP...4-6SM IN -SHSN/BLSN FOR MPV/SLK THRU 22Z SUN.

WINDS...WNW 10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z MONDAY...THEN N-NW
5-10KTS BY 12Z-14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NGT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW/RAIN SHWRS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SOME LOCATIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THE RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW.

MARCH 17TH...
BTV: -6 (1885)
MPV: -11 (1967)
MSS: -5 (1950)
SJBV1: -16 (1916)

MARCH 18TH...
BTV: -7 (1961)
MPV: -16 (1956)
MSS: -10 (1993)
SJBV1: -14 (1967)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/JN
CLIMATE...MUCCILLI