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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 242325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
625 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 624 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL,
BUT I DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF
SKY COVER, POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. I`VE TRIED TO BETTER SHOW
SKY TRENDS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY WHICH DEPICT AN AREA OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SANDWICHED BETWEEN LAYERS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AND AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINE TO FILL IN FROM W
TO E THIS EVENING.

FRANKTOWN ONTARIO RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WHICH PER RAP ANALYSES
IS STILL NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA. THESE WILL SPREAD INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORTLY. FOR THAT REASON, I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH I`M NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW
SQUALLS AS CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW (GENERALLY UNDER 1 KM
AGL AS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS). I`VE TIMED ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM AND SWEEP FURTHER
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VERMONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK
D-2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS, I`VE MADE NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON
SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE
NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF
WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT
TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS
ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING
OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER
WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY
AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER
THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM
07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WGH