Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281442 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 942 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING WILL THEN DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 935 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY...AND CAPTURE CRNT TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30% OR SO FOR THE DACKS/NORTHERN SLV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUED WITH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT ZNS...INCLUDING THE NEK THRU 16Z TODAY. DEEPER RH PROGS ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LLVL CAA IS DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY. HAVE NOTED A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRNT/BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SLV ATTM...AND HELPING PRODUCE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER WITH VIS AT 3SM AT KMSS. THIS WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CPV. BLOCKED FLW CONTS THRU 18Z WITH FROUNDE #`S AROUND 0.50...RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES. AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR FA. EXPECT COLD SUMMIT TEMPS TODAY WITH WHITEFACE HAVING A CRNT TEMP OF 7F...AND ONLY WARMING TO NEAR 10F BY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 30F CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS DUE NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THESE SAME WINDS COUPLED WITH WARM LAKE WATERS AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WITH DEPARTURE OF TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EST FRIDAY..RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY MORNING HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SO MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE MERCURY DIP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15F...AND WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW SUBZERO READINGS EAST OF THE GREENS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT. PROBLEM BECOMES PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN MID LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WARM ENOUGH IN LOW LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS IN SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR ICE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ON BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EST FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING INDICATING FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE BTV CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP MID-DAY MONDAY. WITH THE EARLY FROPA...EXPECT HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 40S MORNING TO 30S AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RISING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE SURFACE TO MID- LEVEL FLOW TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TO OUR WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY PUSHES NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH SO THINK A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD THURSDAY CENTERING OVER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...IFR VSBY SNOW CONTINUES AT KBTV AND KMPV FOR ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER WITH MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT KMSS AND KPBG. AFTER 13Z...VSBY TREND TO VFR AND MVFR CIGS TREND TO VFR BY MID-DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. PROBABLY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CLEARER SKIES WILL BE NOTED ON ACROSS THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND ALSO IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE HIGH. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MID CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...SCT-BKN VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUNDAY - 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN MVFR/IFR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 18Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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