Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241726 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system just off the mid-Atlantic coast will move northeast today and reach eastern Maine tonight. This will bring clouds to the area along with the threat of showers across Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks. Dry weather is expected Wednesday morning...but then an upper level disturbance will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the North Country. Above normal temperatures are expected today and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 953 AM EDT Tuesday...Minor updates to winds/pops based off current radar/observational trends, otherwise current forecast on track. Steadier area of showers pivoting across southern VT will tend to morph into a broader area of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms across our VT counties later this afternoon/early evening. High temperatures appear right on track per latest modelled 925 mb thermal progs. Have a great day. Prior discussion from 653 AM EDT Tuesday... Overall forecast in good shape with just some minor cloud tweaks. Otherwise...we will see a gradual increase in clouds across most of the area today as an upper level low pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast moves slowly northeast. There will be a sharp gradient of precipitation with this system across our area because of the track of the system. Looking at most of northern New York remaining dry today with a chance of showers across Essex County New York and most of Vermont. There could even be an isolated thunderstorm...mainly over southern and eastern Vermont. High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s east to lower 80s west. Upper level low continues to move northeast tonight and reach eastern Main by Wednesday morning. Still looking at some lingering showers over eastern Vermont tonight...but eventual dry conditions develop over the entire area later tonight through Wednesday morning. Eventually a shortwave trough moves across eastern Canada and the Northeast Wednesday afternoon. This will increase dynamic support over the area and bring a cold front into the region late Wednesday afternoon. Instability should also increase ahead of the front with highs getting into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dew points will also be increasing...but feel model forecasts are doing their usual overforecast of dew points which in turns creates more instability. Feel CAPE values will be closer to 500 J/kg versus the model forecasts of 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to enhance the potential for convection and during this time of maximum instability...deep layer shear is increasing. Neither the instability or shear are strong...but enough to increase the potential for thunderstorms and have included in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night and Thursday will mainly be dry with an upper level ridge building over the North country. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal normals with warmer air reaching the area under aforementioned ridge. 850 temps warm from around 11 C up to 15 C by Thursday afternoon. There may be a few lingering showers during the first half of Wednesday night across our Eastern zones as surface trof and upper level short wave that brought some showers to the area Wednesday afternoon both lift northeastward and away from the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night through Tuesday...extended portion of the forecast will generally feature a surface front situated somewhere very close to our area or even right across our area. Location of this front will play a big roll in our temperatures and chances for showers or convection. Pattern will be fairly active due to this feature and have mentioned several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the period as stationary/warm front lifts north across our forecast area. Think that we will see upper 80s in the warmer larger valleys of our forecast area but even found some model guidance that pushes 90. Saturday and Sunday front will remain very close to our area and depending which side of the front we end up on will determine how warm we are. Unfortunately the forecast gets lower confidence the further out we get with not a lot of model agreement and boundary causing big bust potential. Due to warm temps will see some surface instability...especially Friday...bring chance for some boomers to the region. Also have chance for convection mentioned Saturday...then a cooler pattern will begin heading into early next week and chance for convection wanes as we finally end up on cooler side of aforementioned surface front/boundary. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. SCT/BKN mid level clouds and spotty showers/isolated thunder possible at KRUT/KMPV terminals through 00Z, otherwise dry weather is expected with light and variable terrain-driven/lake breezes less than 10 kts expected. After 00Z VFR continues with light winds. Increasing confidence of patchy IFR/LIFR in BR/FG at KMPV/KRUT in the 06-12Z time frame owing to wet ground from today`s rainfall adding low level moisture to the surface layer. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR continues with mainly clear skies. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z, but this is beyond the forecast at this point. Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... 18Z Wed through 02Z Thu...VFR with scattered showers/storms, mainly at northern terminals. Any heavier shower/storm may produce brief IFR/MVFR visibilities and enhanced turbulence. 02Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure. 12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, especially on
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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