Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 132336 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 636 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. PERSONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 623 PM EST SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO SKY COVER/POPS/T/TD DATA TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN NEARLY A YEAR ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS, LARGELY IN PART TO LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SPEAKING OF THE LAKE, AN INTERESTING PHENOMENON IS ONGOING WHERE VERY COLD AIR STREAMING OVER THE 35 DEGREE LAKE WATERS (DELTA T VALUES NEAR 50 DEGREES) IS CAUSING EXREME LATENT UPWARD HEAT FLUXES AND LAKE- INDUCED INSTABILILTY ON THE ORDER OF 1200 J/KG. WOW! THIS IS ALLOWING NUMEROUS STEAM DEVILS AND STEAM FOG TO FORM OVER THE LAKE SURFACE PER OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND AREA WEB CAMS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED OCCAIONALLY BELOW 1 MILE OVER THE WATER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS DUE TO THIS PROCESS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING AND STAY WARM. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 328 PM EST SATURDAY... STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 4 TIMES COLDER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM DOWN AROUND 25 BELOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE AN ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND KEEP SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW GOING IN THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ISSUES FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...FURTHER SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY AND NO THREAT FOR ANY MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 337 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY EVENING THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THAT LOCATION THE WINDS WILL GO NEARLY CALM AND SO EVEN WITH ANOTHER VERY COLD EVENING WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW -20`S WE WONT REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA BECAUSE OF THE WIND COMPONENT. EXPECT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WE GET INTO SOME MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT OUR LOWS WILL OCCUR EARLY AND BY DAYBREAK EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS DURING DAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING US BACK FROM THIS SHORT FUSED ARCTIC BLAST. AS THAT OCCURS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 337 PM EST SATURDAY...THROUGH MONDAY EVENING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER THE MAIN IDEA THAT WE ARE EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACKS A LOW RIGHT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WHILE THE GFS TRACKS MORE TOWARDS THE EAST AND RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE COASTLINE. RIGHT NOW THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF SEEMINGLY TOO WARM AND TOO FAR INLAND. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD MIXED PRECIP AS THE SNOW CHANGES TO MOSTLY RAIN. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES... SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP. HOWEVER THE MORE QPF THAT FALLS, THE MORE LIKELY IT FALLS AS RAIN. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RAIN TRENDING TOWARDS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. LATE IN THE WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LONG RANGED GLOBAL GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT MPV THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND IN SUSPENDED ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR AT SLK. GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL ERODE, THOUGH AT BTV EXPECT CEILINGS TO HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE MILDER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT BTV. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. && .CLIMATE... COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES... BTV -25 1967 MPV -29 1967 MSS -33 1967 SJBV1 -30 1967 MMNV1 -32 1967 COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -2 1979 MPV -4 1979 MSS -3 1987 SJBV1 +2 1987 MMNV1 -19 1979 COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -19 1987 MPV -19 2003 MSS -29 2003 SJBV1 -28 2003 MMNV1 -30 1979 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034- 035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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