Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310522 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 122 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving east of Vermont late this evening is ushering in a cooler and drier air mass, along with mostly clear skies. Low temperatures across the region will generally be in the 50s, and then reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday with much lower humidity values as compared to recent days. Dry and pleasant weather will persist Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1038 PM EDT Monday...Surface cold front has moved east of VT as of 0230Z with just some lingering mid-upr level clouds across central and s-central VT. The 2-m dewpoint at BTV dropped from 64F at 5pm to 50F at 7pm with frontal passage, and overall air mass is considerably drier compared to the previous couple of days. Will see more comfortable sleeping weather with the lower dewpoints and low temps mainly in the 50s areawide for overnight lows. May see some patchy fog in more sheltered spots after midnight, but fog potential will be fighting against the drying and wly 925mb winds 15-20kts much of the night. Wetting rainfall in the past 24-30hrs suggests there will be some fog/mist, but would anticipate just intermittent fog around SLK and the river valleys east of the Green mtn spine, and not becoming dense given some of the negative factors overnight tonight. Tuesday will be a dry day with mostly sunny skies under high pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps only 14C-16C highs should finally drop into the upper 70s across most of the area with low 80s possible in the Champlain and Connecticut river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows done the progression of the cold front from the western Great Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for Saturday, and dry Saturday night. ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday. Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 06z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds generally light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts overnight through 12Z, slowly backing to west, then west to northwesterly after 12Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070 AGL range after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to the north. Other than a brief mountain sprinkle, no precipitation is expected. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings through the area. 00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...JMG

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