Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270833 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. && .MARINE...
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AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH

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