Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 090926 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The north country will be under cold advection today, as a cold front has moved south of the region this morning. Daytime temperatures today will be mainly in the 20s, with a chance of snow showers over the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected Saturday through Sunday morning. A warm front approaching the region Sunday night will bring snow to the north country Sunday night and Monday. This will likely result in a messy and difficult commute Monday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 426 AM EST Friday...A cold front has moved south of the region early this morning. The high temperatures for the calender day today have already occurred around midnight, so expecting temperatures today to remain nearly steady or continue to fall slightly. Daytime temperatures today will be mainly in the 20s, with gusty northwest winds making it feel colder. Expecting some scattered snow showers today, mainly over the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains. The north country will be under cold advection today with mostly cloudy skies. Tonight, winds will slowly diminish overnight as a high pressure area builds slowly east from the Great Lakes, as surface pressure gradient weakens. Also, expecting any residual snow shower activity to diminish tonight, as high pressure build east from the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will be mainly in the teens, with some single digits above zero over the higher elevations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 PM EST Thursday...For Friday, expect a cold moist cyclonic flow early which will lead to upslope snow showers. Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic snow showers. Highs only in the teens and 20s. Ridging begins to build in later in the day which should force snow showers to gradually diminish. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday, but a weak upper level impulse may bring some clouds and some additional light snow showers or flurries during the day. Lows Saturday morning in the single digits to teens. Highs on Saturday forecast in the teens and 20s. High pressure is expected to bring partly cloudy skies and cold for Saturday night with lows in the single digits to teens. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 405 PM EST Thursday...Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period with temperatures averaging below normal. At the start of the period, a shortwave and associated sfc wave will be moving from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast states for Sunday into Monday. Some models also suggest that a secondary area of low pressure may form off the coast of New England as the storm exits for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Although there are still variations in the models and ensembles members regarding exact temps aloft and QPF amounts, the vast majority suggest temps both aloft and in the boundary layer will remain below freezing, keeping precip in the form of snow. Amounts are still certain, but at least a light to moderate snowfall look to occur across the entire CWA between Sunday and Monday with a prolonged period of steady light precip. Daytime temps look to be in the 20s to low 30s and lows will be in the teens. Behind this system, the remainder of week will be dominated by chilly temperatures, with the potential for some additional snowfall. The models don`t agree on the timing at all, so generally have slight chc to chc pops for Tuesday through Thursday. At some point, a frontal system looks to move through with some additional snow showers and there`s also the potential for another more organized area of steady snowfall if a wave can develop along this boundary (as suggested by the latest 12z GFS). Daytime temps will continue to mainly be in the 20s with lows in the single digits and teens. && .AVIATION /09Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 06Z Saturday...As an upper level trough is moving through the region, the combination of cyclonic flow, upslope and lake- effect activity will allow for isolated snow showers over the region overnight. Right now KSLK looks to be the most active overnight with periods of MVFR/IFR with passing showers. All other locations could experience a period of MVFR conditions overnight as the upper trough moves through but should stay VFR overall with snow shower potential tapering off by mid-day. Southwesterly winds at 05-15 knots will shift to the Northwest at 10-20 knots overnight and into Friday morning. Outlook 06Z Saturday through Monday... VFR ceilings Saturday morning into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday afternoon with another widespread light snow event. This system will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MV

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