Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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547 FXUS61 KBTV 211826 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 226 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The forecast is beginning to sound like a broken record. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the region until at least the middle of next week with Jose staying southeast of New England. Dry weather and well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period with max temperatures approaching record values this weekend. Early morning fog in primarily the usual favored locations is also expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...Models show the mid level high pressure ridge will remain anchored over the Great Lakes with the surface ridge extending along the Saint Lawrence. This puts the BTV area under predominantly light northerly winds, dry weather and patchy morning fog in the usual valleys. Friday temperatures will continue above normal with lows mainly in the upper 40s and 50s and max readings mainly in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...What is left of Jose drifts even further southeast of the area as high pressure aloft builds into the Northeast. Dry weather will continue as a result with plenty of sunshine expected. Highs will be in the 80s across the entire area...well above normal for this time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge becomes established over the area Sunday into Monday and the warmest 850 mb temperatures overspread the region as well. Highs both days will be well into the 80s and would not be surprised if someone hits 90. This will be up to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Still no precipitation and plenty of sunshine expected. With dew points in the 60s it will definitely feel more like summer. Ridge begins to weaken a bit Tuesday into Wednesday and eventually an upper trough begins to move toward the area on Wednesday. This may enhance the potential for some showers on Wednesday and the southwest flow aloft associated with the upper trough looks to be sufficient enough to ensure Hurricane Maria moving up the East Coast remains south and east of the area. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the exception of overnight IFR/LIFR cig/vsby at KMPV/KSLK. Northerly winds 5-10 kts during the day will diminish overnight. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Mon Sep 25 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NRR NEAR TERM...NRR SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...NRR CLIMATE...BTV

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