Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 310522
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
A cold front moving east of Vermont late this evening is ushering
in a cooler and drier air mass, along with mostly clear skies. Low
temperatures across the region will generally be in the 50s, and
then reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday with much lower
humidity values as compared to recent days. Dry and pleasant
weather will persist Wednesday and Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1038 PM EDT Monday...Surface cold front has moved east of
VT as of 0230Z with just some lingering mid-upr level clouds
across central and s-central VT. The 2-m dewpoint at BTV dropped
from 64F at 5pm to 50F at 7pm with frontal passage, and overall
air mass is considerably drier compared to the previous couple of
days. Will see more comfortable sleeping weather with the lower
dewpoints and low temps mainly in the 50s areawide for overnight
lows. May see some patchy fog in more sheltered spots after
midnight, but fog potential will be fighting against the drying
and wly 925mb winds 15-20kts much of the night. Wetting rainfall
in the past 24-30hrs suggests there will be some fog/mist, but
would anticipate just intermittent fog around SLK and the river
valleys east of the Green mtn spine, and not becoming dense given
some of the negative factors overnight tonight.
Tuesday will be a dry day with mostly sunny skies under high
pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps only 14C-16C highs
should finally drop into the upper 70s across most of the area
with low 80s possible in the Champlain and Connecticut river
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.
ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.
Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 06z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds
generally light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts overnight
through 12Z, slowly backing to west, then west to northwesterly
after 12Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before
abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070
AGL range after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to
the north. Other than a brief mountain sprinkle, no precipitation
Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
06Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure.
00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities
possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings
through the area.
00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure.
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