Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220523 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1223 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1223 AM EST MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 357 PM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INCREASES QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PULSE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE UP THE TROUGH AND THEN LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST BRINGING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THAT WILL CONTINUE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF WEAKENING THE 850MB JET OVER THE REGION AND DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE INSTEAD OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL STILL PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF 30-40 MPH GUSTS BUT WITHOUT THE EASTERN COMPONENT THE CHANCES OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS ARE WEAKENING. THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND WOULD SEE MORE RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT. FLOODING STILL CONTINUES TO REMAIN A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A WEAK CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I`VE MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS. SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY. 18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...LOCONTO

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