Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201128 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 728 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP 850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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