Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190907 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 507 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...UP TO 25 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY UPPER 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...A NICE DAY ON TAP. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY...WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO START ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT POST-FRONT FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE TAIL-END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...45-55F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY FROM 50-60F WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SO WE`LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS INITIALLY S-SE ACROSS VT AND S-SW ACROSS NY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...GENERALLY 320/12G22KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI

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