Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 270814 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z- 11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY 2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004- 007>009-018. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.