Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221144 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 744 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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