


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --561 FXUS61 KBTV 102357 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 757 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this afternoon and evening. A few of these could be severe and localized flash flooding is possible in the heaviest storms. The rain moves out tonight and dry weather should mostly prevail through Saturday. Shower chances increase Sunday as a weak cold front moves into the region, but hot and humid conditions will prevail through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 757 PM EDT Thursday...Have adjusted PoPs substantially to account for less spatial coverage of storms through the region, as this event has been more intense/localized than the precipitation chances implied with slow moving cells/boundaries. That being said, while the heaviest convection is over following areas of significant flooding and wind today, general thunder chances without the severe threats will continue overnight as instability remains along with subtle forcing. An upstream trough is still swinging through and a nearly stationary frontal boundary remains over the region. Previous Discussion...Showers and storms have been moving slowly through parts of northern and eastern Vermont this morning. Additional showers have developed across the spine of the Greens and parts of northern New York. Shower coverage will continue to increase this afternoon and into the early evening before it gradually diminishes late this evening and tonight. So far, the heaviest showers have generally produced between 1-1.5 inches. Thankfully, the storms have been moving just fast enough to prevent training and the atmosphere has been drying a bit during the day, decreasing the PWATs. The lower PWATs are helping keep rates a bit lower than they could be, but with multiple rounds of showers expected, the areas of concern are places that see multiple rounds of the heaviest showers. In these areas, localized flash flooding is possible. The storms this afternoon also have a severe threat. Surface CAPE has increased to around 1,000 to 1,500 J for much of the region, with parts of the ST. Lawrence Valley seeing values close to 2,000 J. The exception is some areas east of the Greens that are in a cooler marine modified airmass off the Atlantic, where surface CAPE values are below 1,000 J. 0-6 KM shear has increased to between 25- 30 KTs, and it will come up a little more this afternoon. Strong synoptic forcing will be lacking, but there will be enough of a weak surface boundary to provide lift. This weak forcing is noticeable in how many of the storms have developed across the terrain this morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure builds into the region for tomorrow and Saturday, bringing mostly dry weather. It will be accompanied by a warming trend, with temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s this weekend. Dew points will also gradually increase, with values increasing into the 60s to around 70. The temperatures and dew points should be just low enough to prevent anywhere reaching Heat Advisory criteria, but it will be hot and humid regardless. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...A cold front attempts to make its way through the region on Sunday into Monday but it mostly falls apart before it can pass through. It will bring another round of showers and storms, and some heavy rainfall will again be possible. While ensemble guidance generally favors an overnight passage, some members move it through in the afternoon, and an earlier passage would lead to some thunderstorm potential. Since the front mostly falls apart before it passes through, temperatures will continue to be above climatological normals for much of the week and the humidity will stay elevated. Currently, the first heat wave of the season looks increasingly possible for Burlington, though the magnitude of the heat will not be as strong as it was back in June. The heat and humidity look to remain in place for the rest of the work week before relief may arrive for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 00Z Saturday...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible with isolated to scattered thunderstorms; otherwise VFR conditions should continue through about 06Z. Most likely sites to see thunderstorms in the next six hours continues to be PBG and MPV based on radar trends. After that time, think there is enough cloud cover and low level southerly winds in Vermont to limit fog development with fog more favored at MSS and SLK even if little or no rain falls as an inversion will develop. Conditionally if rain falls at BTV there may be fog development overnight, and EFK and MPV are climatologically favored to see at least some fog between 06 and 12Z. Winds will be continue to be light/terrain driven with very weak pressure fields over the area through the period. Precipitation chances dwindle after 06Z with dry conditions especially after 12Z. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Kutikoff