Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191729 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1229 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure will sweep across the area today with strong and gusty winds as temperatures trend colder and steadier rains taper to snow showers. Relatively quiet weather is expected from Monday onward through much of next week with early indications suggesting a good travel day for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1126 AM EST Sunday...Continue minor tweaks to address sharply falling temperatures with the front and starting change from rain to snow as it looks like 37-38 degrees is good enough for snow. Rest of forecast remains untouched as precipitation continues to decrease over northern New York and gusty winds/falling temperatures continue elsewhere. Prior discussion... Deepening 982 mb surface low near KART early this morning will take an expected climo track through the St. Lawrence Valley today before exiting quickly toward the Gaspe Peninsula by this evening. The forecast is predicated on this scenario and largely follows persistence from our prior forecast showing steadier rains ending from southwest to northeast this morning as the system`s sharp cold front sweeps across the area. Strong cold thermal advection will quickly follow the front as winds shift west/northwesterly and trend quite gusty under a deeply mixed boundary layer. Perusal of area forecast soundings continue to support maximum gusts from 25 to 40 mph with a few gusts near 45 mph along the eastern slopes of the Adirondack and Green Mountains where isolated power outages will be possible. This seems plausible given robust post- frontal 3-hourly pressure rises from 5 to 9 mb from late morning into this afternoon. As colder air pushes into the area, lingering precipitation will trend more showery in nature and quickly transition to snow across northern NY and the northern mountains of VT where minor accumulations from a dusting to 2 inches or so will be possible. Little accumulation is expected in the Champlain and lower CT River Valleys. Temperatures will take on a non-diurnal trend and will be somewhat challenging as readings gradually fall into the afternoon. Using a blend of our prior forecast and this morning`s BTV 4km WRF output supports morning highs in the 30s across the Dacks/SLV and lower to mid 40s in VT before readings falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s for most spots by early evening. By tonight any lingering snow showers across the northern high terrain will gradually end as brisk northwest flow abates slightly. Any additional accumulations will be minor at best as low temperatures bottom out from the mid teens to lower 20s under variably cloudy skies. Brisk and seasonably cold weather then continues into Monday, though outside a few mountain flurries dry weather is expected as surface high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes and skies gradually trend partly sunny by afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM EST Sunday...Monday night and Tuesday will feature drier weather, and increasing return flow bringing temps back above seasonal normals for Tue. Will still have a surface ridge over the area Monday night, therefore cool temps, clear skies and light winds expected. Increasing southerly return flow on Tue as ridge moves east of the region. Temps will edge into the 50s on Tue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EST Sunday...A cold front will cross our forecast area Tuesday night bringing scattered light rain and snow showers to the area and colder air for Wed. Have mentioned chance pops across our Northern New York zones for Tuesday night, then chance across Northern Vermont on Wednesday. Not a lot of moisture with this front as low passes well north of our region, but think we`ll see at least some scattered light showers. Rain showers will end as light mountain snow showers. We return to dry weather again for Thursday through Friday. Friday night through Saturday night will be our next chance at some weather. Another low will pass North of the region bringing scattered rain and snow showers to the area once again. GFS and ECMWF still differ quite a bit with track and timing of the low. Temperatures will trend back below normal for much of the week with a few chances for precipitation, but nothing significant. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Mix of VFR/MVFR as low pressure has lifted northeast and sharp cold front has passed area as of 17z Sun. Mountain snow showers will bring about MVFR to possible IFR in cigs/vsby thru 20-21z then improvement to VFR. It will be windy from west at 13-20kts with gusts 23-32kts through 00z Monday then backing off slightly to 10-15kts G20-25 kts thru 18z Mon. VFR tonight and Monday with gradual decreasing cloudiness through the remainder of the period. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 1125 AM EST Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for today. Winds have turned to the northwest and are in the 25 to 35 knot range with gusts approaching 40 knots. This will create significant wave heights in the 2 to 5 foot range with a moderate chop. These conditions may prove hazardous to those operating small craft, especially on the eastern half of the broad lake and in Vermont bays/inlets with westerly exposures. Gusty northwest winds will abate slightly later this evening into Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...SLW MARINE...Evenson/JMG

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