Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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457 FXUS61 KBTV 211523 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1023 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A quiet end to the weekend is expected with just a slight chance of a sprinkle or flurry. Late Monday into Tuesday brings the next significant chance of precipitation in the form of a wintry mix. While not as pronounced as last week`s system, with ice jams in place close monitoring will be needed for the early part of next week. By mid week colder and more seasonal temperatures return across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1023 AM EST Sunday...Modest updates as of late morning, mainly to increase cloud cover across the area and to raise temperatures by a few degrees. Overall picture shows frontolysis underway as a weak frontal boundary that sagged into our area last night slowly dissipates atop or just to our south. Weak, though highly blocked northwesterly mid-level flow should keep ample cloud cover banked up across the terrain in most northern counties today while some partial breaks in the overcast will be possible in favored downslope areas in the Champlain Valley of NY and southern VT valleys. Given temperatures are already near forecast max values in several spots, raised those up just a bit and close to lastest LAMP output showing readings topping out in the 35 to 40 degree range. There could be a stray sprinkle or flurry here or there but given the rather shallow nature of the mid level moisture and weak forcing aloft most areas should remain dry through the course of the day. Enjoy your afternoon. Prior discussion... Tonight will continue to be quiet with continuing increased cloud cover ahead of the next system coming in later in the day Monday. Overnight lows will continue to seasonably mild with lows in the mid to lower 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Active period of weather expected... especially Monday night into Tuesday. Warm front will lift northeast into the area late in the day on Monday and lift north of the area after midnight Monday night. Burst of precipitation is expected with the warm front and unfortunately it will be a wide variety of precipitation. Below freezing temperatures will exist across the Saint Lawrence Valley and areas near the Canadian Border in northeast New York as surface northeast winds hold the cold air in place. The other area that will see below freezing temperatures will be eastern Vermont. Thus as warm nose aloft moves in Monday night mixed precipitation is expected over these areas with freezing rain becoming a factor. Potential for light ice accumulations will exist...generally a tenth of an inch or less of ice...but could be higher in northern New York where cold air holds on the longest. If new data continues to support this idea a winter weather advisory may be needed. Warm front lifting north of the region late Monday night will result in the bulk of the precipitation moving out of the area and this will help to limit the duration of the mixed precipitation and icing. The Vermont portion of the Champlain Valley and parts of the northern Adirondacks should see the least amount of mixed precipitation as warm air moves in and changes precipitation to rain. On Tuesday eventually everywhere should warm above freezing with highs in the 40s expected. Cold front will move into the area and enhance the potential for a burst of steadier rain. Warmer temperatures and rainfall expected will bring about the need to monitor the hydrologic situation given a number of ice jams across the area. Scenario different than last week...with key elements not as strong as last week`s event...but we will be monitoring. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Cold front exits the area Tuesday evening and upper trough moves across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Colder air moves in and sufficient dynamic support will exist for snow showers across much of the area...especially in the mountains. Eventually the upper trough moves east of the area Wednesday night and region gets into northwest flow aloft. This will allow for a return of dry weather and below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. The flow aloft will turn to the southwest for the weekend and a warming trend will take place. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions around the CWA as a weak cold front and associated ribbon of enhanced moisture moves through the North Country. Ceilings will improve briefly at the valley locations by 19Z back to VFR before dropping back to MVFR after 03Z ahead of the next system coming in Monday evening. Winds will be light and variable through the period with MSS being the one exception as they will remain locked in NE flow at 05-10 knots for most of the period. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite FZRA, Likely RA, Chance SN, Chance PL. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Definite FZRA, Definite PL. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...JMG/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Verasamy

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