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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 130559
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
159 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LATE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY BRINGING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT THURSDAY...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

LATE WINTER STORM ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. COMBINATION
OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED IN OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SHOWS
REPORTS RUNNING UP TO 14" IN ORWELL AND CORNWELL. THERE HAS BEEN
A WIDE VARIATION IN SNOW TOTALS EVEN OVER SMALL LOCALIZED AREAS
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW.

THERE`S BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING OR
PROJECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 982 MB LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR
SOUTHERN CT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SNOW BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP IN INTENSITY
TO MORE OF A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THOUGH
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH A GRADUAL TAPER DOWN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY EVEN AS SNOW
LIGHTENS UP FROM WEST TO EAST.

OTHERWISE...THOUGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT TOO COLD AND SO
I`VE ADJUSTED THESE UP A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...HANGING ON LONGEST
ACROSS VERMONT. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SOME CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE AND BTV4 WRF
FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW 0.25. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PULLS AWAY AND LOW AND MID
LEVELS DRY OUT. GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 - 35 MPH CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD WITH VARYING
TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC THURSDAY NGT WILL
BRING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS IN VT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY SLIDES EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...WHILE A CLIPPER TYPE LOW SKIRTS THE SLV BY LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE M30S FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM
SATURDAY TO NEAR 40 IN THE CPV AND 30S ELSEWHERE. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL BRING CHC POPS TO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH PSBL RAIN MIXING IN THE VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS NW AND KEEPING THREAT OF AT
LEAST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LVL THROUGH GLANCES THE
NRN TIER OF THE FA. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER TEMPS RETURN ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO U20S. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS
FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME
NEGATIVE DIGITS AS WELL. COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY SE...DRYING
THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE ON PSBL NEXT STORM APPROACHING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW AND BLSN ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEEP STORM PASSES EAST OF REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z AND AFTER
12Z AT VERMONT SITES. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BUT VSBYS
REMAINING IFR/MVFR IN -SNOW/BLSN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
SNOW TAPERS OFF BUT AREAS OF BLSN CONTINUE. CONDITIONS TO TREND
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 20-00Z. WINDS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 30 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ABATING
SLOWLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS FRIDAY PM.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...20-25 KTS AT TIMES. ISOLD -SHSN...MAINLY FOR
SLK/MPV.

MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS