Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271514 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1014 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Local water levels continue to recede as cooler temperatures prevail and runoff decreases. Starting the work week expect quiet and mild conditions. Periods of rain with well above normal temps return Tuesday into Wednesday which could produce more hydro impacts given our above normal stream flows. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly mountain snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1010 AM EST Monday...Current forecast on track and little change made. 12z ALY/BUF soundings shows airmass well mixed to above 850 mb with 850 temps -4 to -5 deg C supporting MaxT of mid to upper 40s possible in the valleys and lower 40s mtns under mainly partly cloudy skies. Still expecting a breezy to windy day with gusts around 30 kts. Previous discussion...Current forecast in good shape with temps continuing to hold steady or slightly rise as day break occurs. Gusty winds are setting in across the forecast area as the steep lapse rates are mixing well and mean boundary layer flow based on KCXX VAD wind profiles shows around 30 kts in the lowest 2000 ft of the atmosphere. As opposed to the active start to the weekend, the start of the work week will be quiet and mild. High pressure departs to our east as mid level clouds continue to build into the North Country. An upper level disturbance will track to our north which could bring enough moisture to see some mountain snow showers late in the day. Otherwise we will be looking at partly cloudy skies with warm air advection continuing. 925mb temps warm to -1C to +2C supporting max temps in the mid to upper 40s today. Overnight the warm advection continues and as the winds turn calm expect a very shallow inversion to develop as radiational cooling will drop our overnight lows to the upper 20s to low 30s. A moderate low level 850mb jet will push across the North Country this afternoon and with steep low level lapse rates we should see a well mixed pbl. Bufkit soundings from our 2km and 4km wrf show the mean boundary layer flow in the in 20-30kt ranges. Using that as a proxy for our gusts today we should see fairly gusty winds across the North Country this afternoon. Lapse rates weaken by early evening and thus the winds will as well. Overnight the boundary layer decouples and we should see fairly calm winds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EST Monday...West to southwest flow aloft aloft will develop over the area through the entire period. This will lead to temperature and moisture advection and we will once again see above normal temperatures through the period. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s and in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday. With the temperatures on Wednesday... there will likely be some more record highs set. Of note will be the lows Tuesday night...which will be above freezing. So we will once again have an extended period of conditions favorable for more ice breakup in rivers plus new snowmelt. Showers will be off an on during the period...especially Tuesday night into Wednesday. Standardized anomalies for precipitable water will be three times higher than normal...so will need to keep an eye on potential precipitation amounts. At this time we could be looking at a half inch to three quarters of an inch in the Tuesday through Wednesday night time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 338 AM EST Monday...Upper trough will be moving across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and will be bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. Temperatures will also be falling and we will be trending toward below normal temperatures as we head to the weekend with northwest flow aloft becoming established over the region. Drier air will also be moving in and precipitation chances will be pretty small as a result with temperatures cold enough for precipitation to be in the form of snow showers. && .AVIATION /15Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 12Z Tuesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will pull east of the region during the morning hours today. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through TAF period. Only aviation concern will be the gusty pressure gradient winds across the region today. With steep lapse rates and decent mixing expect gusts of 20-30kts at most TAF sites through the afternoon. The low level jet at 850mb will likely cause some issues with wind shear and low level turbulence especially over northern New York, but with the gusts mentioned in the TAF`s I opted to not include any mention of LLWS in the TAFs. Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday... 12Z Tuesday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions. 18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers with variable cigs from VFR to IFR depending on time period as low pressure crosses the region. 06Z Thursday onward...Scattered snow showers/flurries and occasional MVFR/IFR conditions early trend mainly VFR after 18Z Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 PM EST Sunday...Most rivers have crested with latest hydro graphs showing water levels receding...therefore the flood watch has been cancelled. See local flood statements for latest crest information on our web page. We continue to watch Tuesday afternoon through Weds time period closely for the potential for additional river rises associated with several rounds of showers and embedded downpours. This expected rainfall along with much above normal temperatures will result in additional snow melt and the potential for sharp river rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential impacts. && .CLIMATE... We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as follows: Burlington - 59 set in 1954 Montpelier - 53 set in 1991 St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954 Massena - 49 set in 1954 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG/Deal HYDROLOGY...Taber CLIMATE...Evenson

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