Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252006 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 406 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry, there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains on track as we progress toward the late afternoon/early evening hours. The tail end of a weak surface trough/front is in the process of dropping south into our northern counties as of 300 pm with a modest wind shift to the west/northwest behind the boundary across neighboring southern QE/ON. The front will cross the region this evening with little fanfare, though weak instability, combined with increasing 0-6km shear and some PVA from a shortwave passing off to our northeast may be just enough to spark a few showers/isolated storms along and north of a KSLK to K1V4 line through 8-9pm or so. Given our deep boundary layer this afternoon (to 10 kft) any storm that does develop will have the potential to produce locally gusty winds and will continue this idea through early evening. The threat is conditional however. By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT. Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance, generally from 45 to 55 with some variability. On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the ridge axis transitioning to our east over time. At this point have introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere. Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in maxes in the 70s to mid 80s. Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal, generally in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper ridge axis begins to crest over the region. On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream, upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region, reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models diverge on how dry conditions will be. Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 18Z Thursday...VFR expected through the period. Weak frontal boundary passing through the region this afternoon will foster a wind shift to northwesterly in the 18-00Z time frame, after which winds trend light and variable overnight into Thursday morning. Along the front, just an outside chance of a shower/thunderstorm at northern terminals through 01Z or so. Threat is conditional at this time and confidence is low that any storm will discretely affect any terminal. If it were to occur, brief gusty winds and MVFR visibilities would be possible. After 12Z Thursday VFR continues under light northerly flow. Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday... 18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG

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