Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 345 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A quiet end to the weekend is expected with just a slight chance of a sprinkle or flurry. Late Monday into Tuesday brings the next significant chance of precipitation in the form of a wintry mix. While not as pronounced as last week`s system, with ice jams in place close monitoring will be needed for the early part of next week. By mid week colder and more seasonal temperatures return across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 322 AM EST Sunday...Quiet weather continues today with cooler but still above seasonal normal temperatures and increasing cloud cover as weak cold front slides south across the North Country before going stationary to our south. As the front shifts south, associated moisture will bring increased cloud cover and a chance of a sprinkle or flurry, especially across the higher terrain, but accumulation will be minimal at best. Models still show cooling of 3-4C from Saturday which will lead to high temperatures today in the mid 30s. Sunday night will continue to be quiet with continuing increased cloud cover ahead of the next system coming in later in the day Monday. Overnight lows will continue to seasonably mild with lows in the mid to lower 20s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Active period of weather expected... especially Monday night into Tuesday. Warm front will lift northeast into the area late in the day on Monday and lift north of the area after midnight Monday night. Burst of precipitation is expected with the warm front and unfortunately it will be a wide variety of precipitation. Below freezing temperatures will exist across the Saint Lawrence Valley and areas near the Canadian Border in northeast New York as surface northeast winds hold the cold air in place. The other area that will see below freezing temperatures will be eastern Vermont. Thus as warm nose aloft moves in Monday night mixed precipitation is expected over these areas with freezing rain becoming a factor. Potential for light ice accumulations will exist...generally a tenth of an inch or less of ice...but could be higher in northern New York where cold air holds on the longest. If new data continues to support this idea a winter weather advisory may be needed. Warm front lifting north of the region late Monday night will result in the bulk of the precipitation moving out of the area and this will help to limit the duration of the mixed precipitation and icing. The Vermont portion of the Champlain Valley and parts of the northern Adirondacks should see the least amount of mixed precipitation as warm air moves in and changes precipitation to rain. On Tuesday eventually everywhere should warm above freezing with highs in the 40s expected. Cold front will move into the area and enhance the potential for a burst of steadier rain. Warmer temperatures and rainfall expected will bring about the need to monitor the hydrologic situation given a number of ice jams across the area. Scenario different than last week...with key elements not as strong as last week`s event...but we will be monitoring.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Cold front exits the area Tuesday evening and upper trough moves across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Colder air moves in and sufficient dynamic support will exist for snow showers across much of the area...especially in the mountains. Eventually the upper trough moves east of the area Wednesday night and region gets into northwest flow aloft. This will allow for a return of dry weather and below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. The flow aloft will turn to the southwest for the weekend and a warming trend will take place.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are trending towards MVFR as weak cold front and associated ribbon of enhanced moisture moves into the North Country. In addition to lower cigs to mvfr levels this boundary might bring a few scattered rain/snow showers through 12Z. Ceilings will improve briefly at the valley locations after 15Z back to VFR before dropping back to MVFR ahead of the next system coming in Monday evening. Winds will shift NW at 05-10 knots before going light and variable after 12Z. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN, Chance FZRA, Chance PL. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely FZRA, Likely RA, Chance PL. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Banacos/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Taber/Verasamy

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