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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV