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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 051119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 619 AM EST THURSDAY...OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE SLV BUT MOST REFLECTIVITIES
ON RADAR NOT REACHING THE GROUND...INDICATIVE ON DRIER MID
LEVELS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS WINDS
GRADUALLY PICK UP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...WITH
BEST FORCING OVER CANADA WILL KEEP MORNING PRECIP THREAT AT SLGT
TO LOW CHC. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT. PORTIONS OF
NEK AND CT VALLEY HAVE REMAINED COLD IN THE L-M20S AS CPV AND
WEST HAVE WAA RAISING TEMPS INTO THE 30S-L40S ALREADY. THUS HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF FZRA/FZDZ IN GRIDS THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY MID LVLS...SUPPORTING SLGT-LOW CHC AT MOST
THIS MORNING.

THE PRIMARY SFC LOW...CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL TRACK
NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY THIS AFTN...PLACING OUR CWA UNDER STRONG
LLVL WAA AND WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. A STRONG LLVL
JET OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDING IN WAA
AND INCREASING 925MB TEMPS TO 8C-10C THIS AFTN. THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED AT THE SFC WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L40S-L50S AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 447 AM EST THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION RAIN INTO
A WINTRY MIX FROM THE NW TO THE SE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...NAM/GFS
BEGIN TO PUSH 0C ISOTHERM AT 850MB EAST OF THE SLV...BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON COLD AIR PROGRESSION IN THE LOWER LVLS. TO ADD THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN ON THE BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP...SO HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LAST AND BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW AFFECT SNOW/SLEET AND PSBL ICE
AMOUNTS. NAM APPEARS TO KEEP IP/FZRA AROUND LONGER THAN
GFS...HAVING WARMER TEMPS SLOW TO ERODE ABOVE THE SFC.

EXPECT DRYING TREND EARLY FRIDAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DECREASE BRIEFLY
BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...SURGING MOISTURE BACK NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH COLDER
TEMPS IN PLACE...925MB OF -7C TO -10C...SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE
UPPER LOW GAINS NEWD MOMENTUM. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CRESTING OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER MESSY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY... SO EXPECTING SNOW TO
CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH RAIN...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ...SO HAVE KEPT IN LOW OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
THURSDAY ALONG WITH DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. ALSO...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SO EXPECTING SOME SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20S KNOTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z-15Z THURSDAY
AND THEN DIMINISH BY 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE TO 20-30 KTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. OPEN
WATER AND SOUTH FACING BAYS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO THESE
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/JN
MARINE...KGM