


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --321 FXUS61 KBTV 110651 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 251 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible today with a rising chance for additional activity on Saturday as the region remains in a humid and unstable pattern. A weak frontal passage will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms again Sunday into Monday, with drier but continued hot and humid weather expected for the remainder of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM EDT Friday...Isolated showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder continue to develop across the region overnight as the base of an upper trough swings through and latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPEs upwards of 2000 J/kg. While much drier mid- level air entrains into the region today, soundings continue to show tall skinny CAPE profiles up to 1000 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear around 40kts. This should be sufficient enough to produce some more isolated convection through the day, though it should have much less coverage than yesterday and remain sub-severe. This idea is well supported by the latest CAMs, as well as SPC which has kept our region in a general thunder risk for today. Anything that does develop should wane after sunset tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Friday...For Saturday, guidance has done an about- face compared to yesterdays 00Z runs which were dry. Now, the general model consensus has displaced the ridge that was forecast to build over the region to our north, putting the forecast area into closer to zonal flow allowing some convective debris from ongoing storms over the central CONUS to track through. In collaboration with surrounding offices, we`ve offered chance PoPs for showers and thunderstorms to account for this, and at this time strong storms don`t appear to be in the cards. Finally for Sunday, the forecast remains on track for a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes to advance a weak cold front towards the region. Increasing southwesterly flow will continue to provide a warm and moist atmosphere supporting showers and isolated thunderstorm to become likely across western portions of the CWA by Sunday afternoon, moving east into Vermont Sunday evening. Pockets of heavy rain will certainly be likely as PWATs surge towards 2" and warm cloud depths deepen to near 13kft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Friday...Main emphasis of northern stream shortwave and trough lifting NE across Ontario/Quebec but still moving through CWA on the backside of warm upper level ridge for Sunday night - Monday. Enough instability and moisture for showers and t-storms Sunday afternoon through Monday with PWATS > 1.5 inches so will need to monitor for heavy rain threat. Thereafter...Eastern CONUS Heat ridge builds again for the rest of the week, but as we get into the latter part of the week will need to see how northern stream flow tries to breakdown the ridge bringing more shower/t-storm activity and where is that magical boundary that will be the focus for multiple activity and possible flooding as PWATS climb back to 1.5-2 inches. It will be very warm-hot with 850mb temps possibly reaching 17-20C and 925mb temps reaching 23-25C at its peak. Dewpoints likely in the 60s for much of the duration and even some low 70s. It won`t be the intensity like late June but it will be a cumulative heat stretch impact. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 06Z Saturday...Renegade -TSRA near KMPV at 07z will exit VT within the next hour/two. Otherwise, partly cloudy with opportunities for low cigs and fog due to moist, calm atmosphere and recent scattered rainfall. IFR has already occurred at KSLK with a temporary lifr due to some blowoff clouds but should go back to IFR-LIFR. KMPV and KEFK possibly going to IFR between 08-13z. Elsewhere, generally VFR at TAF sites but VCFG. Aft 12-13z...VFR conditons expected with light SW-W winds. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW