Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290533 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 133 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clouds continue to increase this morning, ahead of a cold front approaching the region. The front will produce another chance for showers Saturday, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. More chances for rain enter the forecast early next week as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 133 AM EDT Saturday...Dry air in place at the lower levels with surface RH`s ranging from about 30 to 55 percent. Mid- level clouds increase on SW flow as temperatures are slow to drop this morning. Have raised morning lows a few degrees and lowered dewpoints based on these trends. Otherwise, forecast in good shape. Shortwave trough passes Saturday morning, with low level winds turning westerly and chance pops mainly central/southern portion of forecast area. Saturday the front pushes south from the Canadian border about mid day, and westerly winds turn northerly with cold air advection beginning. There will be time for mid day high temps to warm into the 60s before the cooldown begins.
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&& .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM EDT Friday...Differences continue between the models on strength of cold air behind the front Saturday night and Sunday. However they have trended cooler overall which gives me better confidence in the cooler temperatures. Cool northerly flow behind Saturday`s front will persist Saturday night, and low temperatures will be mainly in the 30s. Some partial clearing in the dry post-frontal flow, however toward morning clouds increasing from west to east in advance of our next system. As flow turns southerly on Sunday surface warm front will be located east to west near the border. NAM is the outlier in breaking out light precipitation along this warm front Sunday morning, while the rest wait until Sunday afternoon/night to bring precip in west to east along the front. Will trend with the consensus but will need to keep an eye for earlier precip development. Higher QPF focus nearer the Canadian border at 1/2 to 3/4 inch, and less than a tenth in the south. For max temps on Sunday the NAM continues to be the cooler of the models, with 49 degrees at BTV. I couldn`t go that cold, but did user a cooler blend to undercut MAV guidance and give lower 50s in Champlain Valley and 40s north and higher elevations. Sunday night southerly flow returns as warm front lifts further north, and lows into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 402 PM EDT Friday...ECMWF and GFS models showing a rather unsettled period across the North Country with chances for rain showers just about every day. Have mostly stuck with superblend pops and guidance through the period. Monday forecast looks difficult with GFS and ECMWF models showing a warm front near the international border. The NAM model has this warm front a bit further to the south on Monday. Where ever this warm front set up, there is a potential for a big bust of max temperatures on Monday, with temperatures being either cooler or warmer than forecast. Thus, have stuck with superblend guidance at this time. A cold front will move through the region Monday night, bringing more rain showers to the region. The region will remain in cyclonic flow Tuesday and Wednesday from a low pressure area over southern Quebec, so will continue with a chance of rain showers on these days. Model guidance hinting at mostly dry weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Guidance hinting at a low pressure area moving northeast from the southeastern U.S. on Friday, with more rain showers moving into the region. On a personal note, this is my final shift as I will officially retire on May 1, after working for the past 37 years, 18 years here at BTV. I enjoyed working with many wonderful people over the years. This I will miss in retirement. In the words of the immortal Samuel A Branch, Good bye and Good luck, or as the late John McLaughlin would say "BYE BYE"!!! && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with increasing mid/high clouds lowering to 6-10kft by 12Z Saturday. VCSH included at MPV, RUT and SLK during the mid to late morning with a chance for some scattered shower activity as a weak upper disturbance traverses the area. Winds generally light out of the south to southwest this morning will shift west to northwest behind the upper disturbance during the mid-day. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Occasional SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Lahiff/KGM SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM

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