Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 222329 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Expect a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry weather Monday as high pressure remains over the area. Eventually a large upper level trough of low pressure will start to approach the area Monday night and then move across the North Country Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, clouds and precipitation chances will be increasing with fairly widespread rain expected Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 726 PM EDT Sunday...Surface analysis shows a slightly tighter gradient between approaching front and departing high pres...which is resulting in better mixing this evening. South winds at 5 to 10 mph cont at btv...but expecting low levels to decouple shortly...which with dry air should allow temps to fall more quickly. Have noticed surface dwpts are 3 to 5 degrees higher this evening with KMSS at patchy fog in eastern VT and parts of the dacks looks reasonable...even thou temps won`t be as cold tonight. Expecting lows to range from the upper 30s nek to mid 50s cpv/midslopes. All covered well in crnt grids/forecast. Previous discussion below: On Monday...mid and high level moisture will be on the increase. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s...which is still well above normal. Not looking for any precipitation during the day...but lower level moisture should start working into parts of eastern Vermont as the day progresses. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 308 PM EDT Sunday...Early portion of the work week continues to look like the most active time period of the 7 day forecast period, as strong high pressure off the eastern US coast and a slow moving deep upper low and occluded front combine to advect a deep sub-tropical plume of moisture into the region. Monday night begins mild and dry with southerly flow increasing along with mid/high clouds. This combination will keep min temps will above normal, falling only into the mid 50s to low 60s. Towards sunrise, rain will begin to encroach into the St. Lawrence Valley as deeper moisture associated with aforementioned upper trough advances eastward. Widespread rains shift into the Adirondacks during the mid-morning to early afternoon hours, then further eastward into Vermont during the evening rush hour and overnight. The slow moving nature of the front combined with several waves of low pressure moving along the boundary will support rainfall amounts ranging from as little as a half inch in the St. Lawrence Valley to as much as 2-3" in the southeast upslope regions of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. QPF in the Champlain Valley and along the western slope of the Green Mountains will largely depend on how south or southeasterly the low level winds are, which speaking of, will likely trend quite gusty late Monday night through Tuesday. The strongest winds will primarily be ahead of the main precipitation shield, and with mean 925mb winds around 40kts and near 60kt at 850mb, expect gusts to likely be in the 30-40 mph range, limiting QPF to perhaps 1-1.5". Overall, with such dry antecedent conditions, the forecast rain shouldn`t have any concerns to rivers, but combine it with the wind and trees shedding leaves I wouldn`t be surprised to hear of some minor street flooding due to clogged drains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Sunday...As the surface front pushes east of the CWA on Wednesday, showers will linger especially across the eastern half of the region. Thursday sees an area of strong energy diving from the northern plains into the base of the upper trough across the eastern half of the US. This spawns cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary to our south across the Mid Atlantic states. Models are in closer agreement that as the new low swing though at the base of the negatively tilted trough, showers will continue through Thursday, especially across the eastern counties. Atlantic high pressure moves back in at the end of the week for a brief time bringing a couple days of quiet and dry weather before the next surface boundary sits on our doorstep late Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures for the long term will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected through the period with only high level clouds expected. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots. After 06z tonight can see some clouds and fog developing over eastern Vermont and KMPV may see MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. Any fog that forms will lift by about 13z once again. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Patchy FG. Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Windy with gusts to 31 kts. Definite RA...Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR. Definite RA...Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Neiles EQUIPMENT...BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.