Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231903 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure system will depart across the St. Lawrence Seaway today, bringing an end to rain and snow showers late this morning. Some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain of northern into northeastern Vermont could persist into this afternoon. Variably cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will prevail Monday through Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring the next chance for rain, generally later Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 134 PM EDT Sunday...At 1730Z, lingering light flurries/sprinkles have generally ended across the Northeast Kingdom. Strong low-level drying underway, and has allowed for mostly clear skies to develop from the Champlain Valley wwd...and also across s-central VT. Should gradually see some BINOVC develop across n-central and nern VT next few hours. Afternoon highs generally upr 40s to around 50 for the Champlain/St. Lawrence and CT river valleys. Elsewhere, steep lapse rates (and clouds across n-central/nern VT yielding colder readings in the low-mid 40s most locations. Gradient flow will remain moderately strong through sunset, as 980mb sfc low across ern Quebec slowly fills while drifting ewd north of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Will keep 15-25mph with a few gusts to 35mph next 1-3 hrs, before gradually diminishing with slow weakening of p-gradient and loss of steep lapse rates as PBL cooling occurs toward sunset. Generally quiet conditions tonight. A minor shortwave trough in fast WNW flow 700-500mb layer will pass to our south across the srn tier of NY and PA. This will yield some increase in mid-level clouds, especially across the srn half of the forecast area. That said, associated light pcpn should remain south of our area. West winds continue 5-10 mph overnight, which will mitigate radiative cooling and keep overnight lows mainly mid-upr 30s, except low 30s in the 1-2kft elevational band. Generally quiet weather expected Monday. Broad cyclonic flow remains in place aloft, and it appears we`ll have another surge of low-level CAA and possible passage of weak mid-level shortwave trough. Shallow instability layer will produce clouds by afternoon and possible light upslope precipitation into the Adirondacks and nrn Green mtns. Freezing levels generally 2000-2500ft, so can`t rule out some flurries down to about 1000ft in elevation Monday aftn, especially wrn slopes. May see passing sprinkles in the valley locations, and kept PoPs generally less than 20%. High temps generally low-mid 40s, except upr 40s near Lake Champlain and with downslope warning effects across ern Windsor county/VSF area. Winds will be W-NW winds 8-15kts with gusts developing in the afternoon with presence of steeper lapse rates. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 PM EDT Sunday...Cold, cyclonic flow continues across area with still a few spokes of energy flowing across northern areas for fall/winter like chance of mtn sprinkles/flurries during this period. The influence of this trof weakens Wed. It will be unseasonably cold with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 302 PM EDT Sunday...Trof axis sliding east on Wednesday with lessening influence and some shortwave ridging going into Wed ngt before another shortwave in overall NW flow pattern impacts our region late Thu thru Fri. Slowly increasing sunshine on Wed but cold with Highs only in 30s/40s with high pressure Wed ngt for a chilly one with lows in teens/20s. Morning sunshine will try to offset chilly temperatures with clouds advancing with the next system previously advertised. Precipitation shouldn`t threaten western zones until 18z or later and VT aft 21z Thu. Ptype should be mainly liquid with some mixed rain/snow in highest elevations. Highs in the 40s. Surface low and accompanying front should be across VT by 12z Fri and moving east out of area thus wettest in ern VT during morning with leftover shoer threat in upslope terrain Fri and Fri ngt. Mildest day of stretch with highs around 50 degrees. Thereafter...NW flow persists but their are difference between ECMWF/GFS with another disturbance in the flow or not. GFS..Yes while ECMWF does not. WPC has this feature...cold front as well as our Superblend ensemble thus will go for chance of showers Sat and dry for Sun although confidence is lower in this timeframe. && .AVIATION /19Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18z Monday...Conditions have improved to VFR all TAF locations with strong sfc low departing across ern Quebec north of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Main issue will be continued gusty W-WNW winds through 00Z, generally sustained 10-20kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will diminish to 5-10kt after sunset. Minor upr trough passing to our south will bring increasing mid-level clouds overnight, though should remain VFR. Outside chance of MVFR at KSLK 06-12Z Monday with upslope flow conditions, but kept current TAF VFR. WNW winds generally 8-15kts after 14Z Monday. Outlook 18z Monday through Friday... 18z Monday through 00z Wednesday: Broad upper trough in place bringing variable cloudiness. Generally VFR ceilings, with possible MVFR showers and higher elevation snow showers late Monday afternoon through Tuesday vcnty of the nrn Mts. Increasing chances for MVFR ceilings at MPV/SLK later Monday night through Tuesday, with periods of light precipitation and MVFR cigs/vsby conditions. 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Saturday: Next low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley brings chances for widespread showers and periods of MVFR conditions late Thursday through the first half of Friday. && .MARINE... AS OF 435 AM EDT Sunday...Lake Wind Advisory continues for Lake Champlain. Strong west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots continue across Lake Champlain this afternoon. This will result in wave heights of 3 to 5 feet. The highest waves will be along eastern shores exposed to a greater fetch on west winds; specifically those locations adjacent to the open waters north of the Charlotte Ferry and south of Valcour Island. Look for winds to drop considerably down to 5 to 15 knots later this evening and bring an end to advisory conditions. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Banacos MARINE...MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.