Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 122335 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 735 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH HAS BROUGHT NICE WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST THREE DAYS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND REACH OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 732 PM EDT SATURDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHALLOW CUMULUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ACTUALLY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 416 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE ANALYSIS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FASTER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL. THUS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS...FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN VERMONT...AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AGAIN AT THIS TIME NOT THINKING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND NO REAL SIGNS OF ANY FORCING. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORIES. SHOULD EVEN BE SOME SUN AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS AS OPPOSED TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 416 PM EDT SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAN SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. 100 KNOT JET AT 250MB WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB SETTING UP TO OUR SW...MEANING BEST JET DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AT BOTH UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 POSSIBLE WITH SOME INSTABILITY AROUND WILL KEEP THREAT OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUESTIONABLE IF CLOUD COVER SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE AT THE SURFACE...WINDS SHIFT WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A DRY SLOT APPEARS TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM OVER AN INCH ON TUESDAY TO 0.5-0.75 INCH WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS 12 HOUR HT CHANGE AT 500MB SHOWS SOME HEIGHT RISES LATE IN THE DAY. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COME FRIDAY MORNING...SURFACE RIDGING PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES. SURFACE RIDING WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE-WISE...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON TUESDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. BUT GFS WARMS UP TEMPS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...BRINGING BACK ABOUT 12C BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE M-U70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE U50S-L60S IN THE VALLEYS AND M40S-M50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD IFR TO MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST THERE HOWEVER...AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY KEEP THOSE SITES MIXED OUT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDER NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS IN A NARROW BAND BETWEEN KBTV AND KRUT. ONLY TAF SITE WHERE ITS POSSIBLE TO GET A SHOWER WOULD BE KRUT SO ADDED SOME VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. AFT 14-15Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK APPROACHING BAND OF RAIN WILL REDUCE VIS TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH VFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE VFR THROUGH 00Z WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALL TAF SITES REDUCING TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS VFR WED AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE AND CREATING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...NF/HANSON MARINE...EVENSON

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