Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210814 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 414 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers are forecast today as the low pressure system that has brought unsettled weather to the area departs the region. Dry weather is forecast tonight through Thursday under high pressure, then rain chances increase again on Friday. Temperatures will be near their seasonal normals, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...We`re on the downhill stretch of moving the persistent trough out of the area. Trough axis is shifting east, and showers associated with the vort max moving through the forecast area in the pre-dawn hours. Previous forecast still valid with most organized precip with the vort max, then continued isolated to scattered showers today in instability under cool pool aloft with trough axis passage. Wind turns westerly today at 10-15 mph with passage of trough. Limited sunshine and cooler air under the trough will keep temps in the upper 60s mountains to mid 70s Champlain valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...500 mb heights begin to rise tonight with trough shifting to the east. Surface ridge axis starts out to the west tonight, and shifts slowly east to become centered over the region by Thursday morning. Light westerly flow near the surface and northwest flow at 850 mb on up. Lower layer RH will provide for partial clearing. Lows tonight in the 50s. Thursday to be a winner for outdoor activities with dry humidity, plenty of sun, and max temps in the 70s to near 80. Surface ridge slowly pulls east with low level flow returning to light southerly warm air advection, while 500 mb shortwave ridge moves west to east. Continued low RH and subsidence with the ridge will keep skies mostly clear. With the sunshine we should realize the potential max temps based on 925 & 850 mb temps, which support highs in the 70s to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. More precip forecast Thursday night and Friday. Leading shortwave trough ahead of an approaching 500 mb trough crashes through the ridge late Thursday night, and pops increase to chance category west to east to cover entire area for Friday. Main low moves well northeast into Quebec as steering flow turns more southwesterly ahead of the deepening low over the Great lakes. Trailing cold front will provide focus for convection Friday. Remants of TS Cindy will remain to the south and exit the mid-Atlantic coast, however southwest flow in the mid levels will advect plenty of subtropical moisture ahead of the surface front. Potential for big rainfall rates again on Friday similar to Mondays storms. Model soundings showing precipitable water again climbing to near 2", which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Saturated sounding and warm cloud depth over 10K feet signal very efficient warm rainfall processes. The main difference between last Monday and upcoming Friday is the surface boundary is forecast to keep moving along so don`t expect storms linger or train over any one area. Will still see heavy rain rates as they pass and have added heavy rain to Friday`s storm characteristics. Despite clouds & rain Friday will be warmer than Thursday in warm southerly flow.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Active start to the extended period as an upper trof shears out north of the Great Lakes, and a surface low and attendant frontal boundary approach from the west. Medium range guidance in pretty good agreement into the early part of the weekend regarding timing and placement of the features, yet qpf differences are still noted. Some modest surface instability and a fair amount of deep layer shear would suggest thunder, possibly with some organization is a good bet during the day Friday. Will continue to carry pretty robust pops through the day Friday into Friday night. ECMWF is pretty wet with this system with qpf in the 1.5" range... the GFS is lower with amounts generally around .75-1". Will still have to monitor for heavy rain potential as GFS precipitable water values once again increase into the 1.5-2" range in the moisture rich southwesterly flow ahead of this next system. Shortwave and surface boundary moving east of the area by early Saturday bringing organized precipitation east of the area. Broad upper trof remains over the northeast with westerly flow and weak surface ridging through the early part of next week. With cyclonic upper flow and cooler air aloft some showers remain possible into early next week despite the weak surface ridge. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions overall for the period with another area of showers expected to move northeastward from the eastern Great Lakes will bring chance of showers or VCSH and possibly some MVFR cigs at MSS and SLK from 06-09Z. Expect the potential for these showers to shift east into the Champlain Valley after sunrise, diminishing throughout the morning. Towards early morning, mainly clear skies and subsiding winds over MPV bringing the possibility for MVFR conditions between 08z- 12z. Wednesday morning will see VFR conditions persisting throughout the day. Overnight most terminals will see winds between 5-10 knots through sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the SW around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots developing Wind direction will shift W/NW in the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...KGM/MV

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