Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241414 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCALES. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75 TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58. BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77 TO 84. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A +PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK) RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD SLOWER. THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO -6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. 00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST. 12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...LOCONTO

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