Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292006 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 406 PM EDT MONDAY...EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MAINE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MARINE LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT FROM THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE...AS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 406 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SPC HAS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WITH THIS LOOKS MARGINAL...AND GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 332 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE AS ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE EXTENDED PATTERN WHICH FEATURES A SHIFT FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS DRY WEATHER WE`VE BEEN HAVING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...TO A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN UNDER A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE ARE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THIS GLORIOUS STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST...DEEP TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WARRANTING LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER BUT WITH BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH LEFT BEHIND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH IN REALITY THEY`LL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...HIGHS 50S-60S...LOWS 40S. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE REGION TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN VT AFTER 00Z...INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 03Z...AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY TREND N/NE AT KPBG AND KMSS...AND SE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...LINGERING MVFR CIGS TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-13Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .EQUIPMENT...
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AS OF 406 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS LINE WITH THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SPRINGFIELD VERMONT (VSF) HAS BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THUS...METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW BEING TRANSMITTED FROM THIS SITE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...BTV

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