Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KBTV 071400
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
900 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016
A weak weather system is currently bringing a light snowfall to
the north country and will continue through the morning
commute. Accumulations will be light but will create slippery
driving conditions. Additional snow showers are in the forecast
for Thursday into Friday as colder air begins to moves in to the
region. Significant snow accumulations are possible in parts of
northern New York. The weekend is expected to be seasonably
cold with scattered snow showers each day.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 630 AM EST Wednesday...Light snow continues to push
eastward across our forecast area. Still think that some
lingering snow showers or drizzle will be possible, but not
significant. Southwest flow is already bringing temperatures
above freezing across parts of the region. The rest of the day
will remain cloudy and high temperatures will reach the upper
30s to around 40.
Tonight our next weather system begins after midnight with some
lake effect snow in Northern New York off of Lake Ontario. Have
upgrade Lake Effect Snow Watch to an Advisory. Overnight
temperatures will be relatively mild with mins only in the 20s,
plenty of cloud cover. A strong upper level trof will push
through the Great Lakes region overnight. This feature does not
have as much synoptic forcing, but southwest flow will become
favorable for lake effect off Lake Ontario with cold air
advection. Flow will be strong enough for some snow to reach Jay
Peak area in Northern Vermont, some upslope enhancement as
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...Lake Effect snow event will be
ongoing for Thursday and Thursday night. Aforementioned upper
level trof will push across Northern New York and New England.
Southern Saint Lawrence and Franklin Counties in the Adirondacks
as well as Jay Peak area in Northern Vermont will be main areas
to have accumulating snow with this Lake Effect snow set up
initially. With upper trof pushing through later Thursday the
rest of our forecast area will also have some light snow shower
activity except for the larger valleys. Snow showers will also
become a bit more convective, models continue to show some small
CAPE in the higher elevations. Going into Thursday night the
flow becomes less favorable for our forecast area and lake
effect band will drift South and out of our area. Most of our
forecast area will have just a dusting to an inch of snow. the
higher elevations of Vermont and Northern New York will have
2-4", and the highest summits from Mount Mansfield to Jay Peak
will see closer to 4-6" of snow. Have upgrade Lake Effect Snow
Watch to an Advisory. In the advisory area, snow totals will be
4-8" with some isolated higher amounts especially in extreme
Southern Saint Lawrence county.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 455 AM EST Wednesday...The main stories during the long
term portion of the forecast will be some of the coldest
temperatures so far this season, with highs mainly in the 20s
and 30s. Also, increasing chances for wintry precipitation as
On Friday, the region will continue to be under cold advection
with a chance of snow showers and highs in the 20s.
On Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will build east from the
Great Lakes Saturday through early Sunday. The ridge of high
pressure will crest over the north country Sunday morning, and
then move off the coast Sunday afternoon. This will allow a warm
front to approach the region Sunday afternoon with increasing
cloudiness. Light snow will develop across the Saint Lawrence
valley and the Adirondacks in northern New York during Sunday
afternoon. This light snow will then spread east into Vermont by
late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. Have raised
superblend pops to likely across the Adirondacks and Saint
Lawrence valley Sunday afternoon, with high chance pops (50
percent) across Vermont by late Sunday afternoon. Models showing
light snow across the region Sunday night, so have raised
superblend pops to likely for Sunday night.
On Monday, ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences, with
the GFS model having a surface low over the Gulf of Maine by 12Z
Monday. The ECMWF model has several waves of low pressure over
the Ohio valley at 12Z Monday. It looks like we will see some
rain or snow on Monday. Thus, have raised superblend pops to
high chance (50 percent) on Monday. Models continue to show some
differences for Monday night and Tuesday, so have stuck with
superblend pops, and will have a chance of snow showers in the
forecast for Monday night and Tuesday.
.AVIATION /14Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Light snow pushing eastward across the
area, only MPV and RUT still reporting light snow at the
terminal. Other terminals have some BR, but conditions will
improve. Snow will start to break up into more showery
conditions after 14z, and temperatures will warm above freezing
at all TAF locations. Will see lingering MVFR ceilings for most
locations with higher terrain obscured. South winds may gust
15-20kts in the Champlain Valley after late morning thru
afternoon/early evening. Will see lower ceilings overnight at
Northern NY terminals with lake effect snow reaching the Western
Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday... Entire period - frequent
MVFR ceilings. Scattered snow showers each day, resulting in
localized IFR visibility and ceilings. Maybe extended period of
IFR for SLK Wednesday night into Thursday night with frequent
snow showers in vicinity of the nrn Adirondacks.
-- Changed Discussion --Warm frontal passage bringing a period of strong south winds to
Lake Champlain this morning. Should see sustained winds around
25kt with gusts to 30kt through 16-17Z. Thereafter, should see a
wind shift into the southwest this afternoon with sustained
winds decreasing slightly to 15-25kt, and then down to 5-15kts
after sunset. Waves in the 2 to 4 foot range are expected
through early afternoon due to the strong south winds, highest
toward the north end of the broad lake vcnty of Colchester
Point and the south end of Grand Isle.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight
EST Thursday night for NYZ029.