Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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296 FXUS61 KBTV 210219 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1019 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND CREATE AREAS OF FROST OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF VERMONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND FOR VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8AM THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY AM LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ANY EXPOSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED. WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ARE INITIALLY CLEAR...BUT IR IMAGERY AT 02Z SUGGESTS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT, AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY DURING THE DAY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST VERMONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY GOOD VORTICITY MAX THAT PUSHES THROUGH AS A COASTAL LOW SLIDES UP THE COAST BUT UNDER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WE WONT SEE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITHOUT THE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ITS NOT UNTIL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THAT THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHERE WE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY MEANS THAT I FEEL COMFORTABLE IN JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE THUNDER. THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE HIRES MODELS INDICATES THE SHOWERS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL SEE DAY TIME MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT AS WE WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCE FOR FROST TOMORROW NIGHT HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART PREVENT MUCH FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AS WE WILL HAVE TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET THAT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY I HAVE MENTION OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE FORECAST AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANCE IN THE MODELS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 410 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A VERY WEAK S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MID UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ANY QPF WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE MTNS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE FIELDS. INITIALLY BEST SFC CONVERGENCE...850 TO 500MB RH...AND ASSOCIATED OMEGA FIELDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PW VALUES SURGE ALONG WITH BEST DYNAMICS. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS BEST CAPE IS LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AIRMASS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY UNSTABLE AS WARM SECTOR SURGES INTO OUR CWA ON WEDS...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO WILL JUST MENTION CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND BECOMING LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND RECENT DRY SPELL WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL POSSIBLE CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHOWER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008- 010-012. NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...BANACOS/MV

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