Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Overall looking at a quiet day today with clouds building up over the mountains and maybe a shower or two over the higher terrain this afternoon. Most areas will remain dry with highs in the 70s to around 80. The pattern will change late tonight and especially on Memorial Day as clouds will be on the increase along with the chances for rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 146 PM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape with little in the way of any changes for this afternoon. Cumulus forming over the mountains have had little in the way of vertical extent...thus feeling continues for just a shower or two possible over the mountains later this afternoon. If anything we will start to see an increase in clouds as the afternoon wears on and have tweaked sky grids to account for this trend. Rest of forecast remains unchanged. Previous Discussion... Tonight will remain dry early before the mid-level ridge pushes east after midnight. This will lead to mid/upper level low progressing eastward into the Great Lakes region. A surface low and shortwave trough will pivot through the region, dragging a warm frontal feature and associated deep moisture through the pre-dawn hours Monday with widespread showers developing through the morning. Hi-res models still hint at with synoptic forcing associated with mid-level WAA as it lifts north, there`s potential a weak mid-level dry slot building in briefly during the late morning to mid-day hours which could bring brief period of reduced PoPs and the potential for some gusty southeast winds along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks as well as western slopes of the Green Mountains as a 925-850mb jet of 35-50 kts will be overhead. Thinking is still the same as the previous shift, still not thinking this will be wind advisory levels, but certainly gusts up to 40mph are quite possible. The chance for strong winds will quickly subside Monday afternoon/evening as a weak cold frontal boundary shifts through area. With this we can expect to see another brief round of showers and would not rule out a rumble or two of thunder as well too. Sunday night will see lows in the 50s, while monday will see highs Monday slightly below normal in the low 60s and low 70s in the western counties..
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 418 AM EDT Sunday...Once 850mb warm front lifts to our north and east late Monday, should see relatively quiet and mild conditions for Monday night. Deep-layer low pressure anchored north of the Great Lakes will maintain S-SW winds during the overnight hrs. Best chance for PBL decoupling will be east of the spine of the Green Mountains, where lows will generally range from 45-50F. Across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, should see lows in the low-mid 50s for Monday night, with S-SW winds 10-15 mph at times. On Tuesday, will see some modest 700-500mb height falls from west to east as center of upper low moves eastward across northern Ontario. Also, some indication of an embedded shortwave trough moving newd from wrn NY into our region by late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. 850mb thermal ridge is slightly more pronounced in advance of this trough in the 00Z GFS as compared to previous runs. Insolational heating may contribute to SBCAPE values of 500-800 J/kg per 00Z NAM during Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints only in the lower 50s, but it appears ingredients are sufficient for at least a slight chance of tstms heading into Tuesday afternoon. Based on present timing, best sfc heating should be across central/s-central VT, and that should coincide with best chances of thunderstorms aftn hours Tuesday. High temps generally in the lower 70s for valley locations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 418 AM EDT Sunday...The long-term period will feature a broad mid-upper tropospheric low centered in the mean across the northern Great Lakes region into northern Ontario. The North Country will be embedded within a belt of moderately strong, cyclonically curved mid-upper level flow Tuesday night through Thursday morning. While it is difficult to time individual vort maxima within this flow, it appears their presence will be frequent enough to result in periods of rain showers, especially during peak afternoon heating on Wednesday. Some indication that a shortwave ridge will briefly build across the region Thursday afternoon, so will indicate lower PoPs for that period (20-30%). A shortwave trough moving in from the Canadian Prairies will reestablish the 500mb trough on Friday, resulting in a better chance of showers with possible thunderstorms late in the day Friday, with showers continuing into Friday night/early Saturday based on present indications. In terms of temperatures, should see readings relatively close to seasonal normals as we move into early June. Will see valley highs in the low-mid 70s (except upper 60s Thursday), with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday....VFR conditions through much of the period with only increasing clouds above 5000 feet this afternoon and tonight. Looks like main area of showers will move in from the west after 12z and thus the 12z to 18z period will see ceilings and visibilities lowering into the MVFR category. Winds will be under 10 knots through 12z then gust to 20 knots from the south and southeast after 12z. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/MV SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Evenson

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