Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 210536 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 136 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY... FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL. HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NORTHERN NY. SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO +7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM .75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY. MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850 TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW 50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER THAN THAT. MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE- THU. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.