Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211424 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 924 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy yet unseasonably mild weather will continue for the North Country this weekend. A weak disturbance across the eastern Great Lakes moving northeastward into prevailing high pressure, providing just a chance of a few light rain showers and patchy drizzle to the North Country today into tonight. The start of the work week brings a more active period of weather. A moisture laden system moving slowly northeastward from the Gulf coast states will bring a wintry mix to the North Country, along with the potential for strong and gusty winds, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. After this system shifts away through the Canadian Maritimes, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild. May see some additional rain or snow showers through the later half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 922 AM EST Saturday...Lowered max temps today a degree or two as they struggle to rise against solid overcast and widespread fog/drizzle/light rain. Still very mild above normal temperature day. Otherwise forecast tracking along well with forecast light rain/drizzle much of the day. Previous discussion...Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine this morning will remain our controlling weather feature through the weekend. Prevailing S-SW low-level flow is maintaining unseasonably mild temperatures in the 30s in most sections early this morning. In addition, 2-meter dewpoints are in the low-mid 30s, resulting in patchy fog. Low-level moisture trapped below the subsidence inversion (near 3kft AGL), is keeping stratus deck locked in, and precluding much in the way of radiational cooling as a result. The 00Z NAM fcst soundings suggest little in the way of cloud trends today and tonight, but some partial clearing possible during the day Sunday. There is a weak warm frontal zone across Lake Ontario ESEWD across central/sern NY. Fog and very low stratus are more abundant across the srn tier of NY and PA early this morning. Expectation is for some very spotty rain shower activity or patchy drizzle to move newd into our region (20-30 PoPs)...with any of the light precip occurring mainly 12-16Z. With temps mostly above freezing, not expecting much in the way of icy conditions, though an icy spot or two is possible in sheltered valley locations. Moving into Saturday afternoon, despite clouds, temps will reach the low- mid 40s, generally about 14-18deg above the climo mean for this time of year. Little change in air mass brings lows in the low-mid 30s for Saturday night with patchy fog possible. Sunday will remain mostly cloudy (few breaks possible) with temperatures again into the low-mid 40s. Little or no measurable precipitation is expected today/tonight/Sunday; the spotty light shower/drizzle this morning may result in a few hundreths in isolated spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Saturday...A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region Sunday night. However, model guidance continuing to show a low level temperature inversion over the region which will continue to trap in low clouds across the region, so have gone with cloudy skies for Sunday night. On Monday, ECMWF and GFS models both showing that moisture from a low pressure area at the surface and aloft over the mid Atlantic states will be slow to move north into the region during the day on Monday. Have held off on bringing precipitation into the region until mid to late Monday afternoon across most of the region. Models continue to show the region will received mixed precipitation, rain, snow or sleet. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Saturday...Models continuing to show a prolonged period of unsettled weather through the period, with temperatures remaining warmer than normal through the period as well. The low pressure area over the mid Atlantic states will continue to mov slowly north through the period with models continuing to show a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain possible Monday night and Tuesday. Surface pressure gradient tightens Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing east and southeast winds across the region, with some areas of downslope likely.Precipitation winds down across the region late Tuesday night, as surface low pressure area moves north into the Canadian maritimes. Models continue to show another low pressure system to move in from the Great Lake late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a chance of rain and snow showers to the region. The region will remain under cyclonic flow on Friday, with a chance of rain or snow showers. && .AVIATION /15Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 02Z Sunday...Stratus deck trapped beneath inversion layer will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next 24hrs with HIR TRRN OBSCD. IFR ceilings will be prevalent through the day in nothern New York KMSS/KSLK taf sites, and a lesser threat in Vermont and Champlain Valley until this evening. Light DZ/BR across the region at early morning with ifr to mvfr visibilities, and forecast this to continue through mid-morning. A weak mid-level disturbance moving into prevailing ridge will bring just an outside chance of a few light rain showers or patchy drizzle. Don`t anticipate anything significant in terms of precipitation. Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... 12z Sunday - 18z Monday...MVFR and IFR ceilings and VFR to MVFR visibility in 3-5sm br, improving to VFR for a short time Monday. 18z Monday through Wednesday...Conditions deteriorate to IFR with widespread wintry mix of precipitation moving in late Monday into Tuesday, then temperatures cooling to support snow through Wednesday. Strong southeast downslope winds on Monday...especially at KRUT, with gusts in excess of 25kts possible. Brief period of improving conditions possible early Wednesday, before occasional RW/SW return mid- late week. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Banacos/Hanson

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