Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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753 FXUS61 KBTV 071803 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 103 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1211 PM EST SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A FEW FLURRIES. HAVE UPDATED TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS AT 4 TO 8 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 20S NORTHERN SECTIONS TO NEAR 40F AT VSF. ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS. FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO CAPTURE LATEST SURFACE TRENDS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK/SHALLOW BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW FLURRIES LIKELY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND COOL AIR ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR VSF WITH SOME SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S...ALL COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THAT BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER THAT EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBS AND THE SAME FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 352 AM EST SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONT AND SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THE BEST MOISTURE WITH THAT WILL ALSO STAY TO OUR NORTH. FLURRIES AND OR LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT HOWEVER AS WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND STAYING IN THE MID 20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A VERY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE REGION WILL LIE BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OCEAN STORM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN HEAD IT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W). TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS AREA TODAY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS MOSTLY MVFR. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CIGS WILL LIFT A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES EXCEPT SLK VFR AFTER ABOUT 06Z MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VSBYS MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT MSS/PBG/BTV...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT REST OF SITES. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...RJS

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