Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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499 FXUS61 KBTV 300800 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX. 12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...SISSON

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