Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 282032 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO 10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY. TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP. EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH. 00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...LAHIFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.