Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 061234 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 734 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 733 AM EST FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR A FRIGID START THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. READINGS AT 12Z INCLUDE -33F AT CANAAN VT...-27F AT SARANAC LAKE NY...AND AN OVERNIGHT LOW OF 10F AT BTV. STRONG SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING SLIDES TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z SAT WHILE MAINTAINING DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE...AND LOCALLY SW 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE AFTN ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW. OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH VALLEY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS GIVEN FULL SUN AND INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE...BUT FORECAST HIGHS STILL 14-18DEG BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH-SW WINDS (5-10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS)...IT WON/T BE NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL SPOTS NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BEFORE LEVELING OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM/NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BASED ON NAM AND LOCAL BTV MESOSCALE WRF RUNS, AND PASSAGE OF BEST MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH PW VALUES 0.2-0.25". THUS...ONLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT (ISOLD 3" AMT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN SUMMITS). HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 25-30F. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST STRATUS LAYER WILL LIKELY LINGER IN MOST SECTIONS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RELATIVELY QUIET OTHERWISE WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. DESPITE CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EST FRIDAY...WORK WEEK STARTS WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIP MINIMAL. MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSONS BAY, BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ONLY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AIR AND NW FLOW. GENERALLY LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP INFLUX OF WARMER AIR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE M30S MONDAY, INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE A SIMILAR TREND WITH TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED NW FLOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KMSS UP TO 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KMSS AND KSLK STARTING AROUND 09Z/10Z AS THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. 06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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