Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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405 FXUS61 KBTV 210630 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 130 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy yet unseasonably mild weather conditions will continue for the North Country this weekend. A weak disturbance across the eastern Great Lakes moving northeastward into prevailing high pressure will bring just a chance of a few light rain showers or drizzle to the North Country today into tonight. Next week brings a more active period of weather Monday night into Tuesday. A moisture laden system moving northeastward from the Gulf coast states will bring a wintry mix to the North Country, along with the potential for strong and gusty winds. After this system shifts away through the Canadian Maritimes, temperatures will remain unseasonably mild. May see some additional rain or snow showers through the later half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 119 AM EST Saturday...Prevailing low-level cloud cover trapped beneath a subsidence inversion remains over the North Country. This will keep temperatures mild tonight, similar to last night (lows mainly upr 20s to mid 30s, not falling much from current readings). A weak impulse with some very light and spotty precipitation will move in from the southwest during the pre-dawn hrs. There is some concern with the potential for some -fzra/-fzdz during the early morning hours on Sat for parts of the St Lawrence Valley, the Adirondacks and the Southern Greens as temps dip below freezing. That being said, warm air aloft that moves in is also rather weak, coupled with low and sparse QPF amounts across the area looks to have very minor impact overall for the morning. FRAM model looked to be a bit over done, so after scaling back, the `Dacks look to see only about 0.01"-0.02" with other locations seeing even less than that. Moving through Saturday, temps look to warm and while the slight chance for precipitation continues, most looks to be rain in the valleys, snow in the higher elevations and a small window again for freezing precipitation for the Eastern slope of the Greens right at sunrise before temps warm there too and any chance switches to rain. The airmass overall has little chance and will see overnight temps in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s and then see highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 PM EST Friday...Saturday night will see ridging return for the second half of the weekend with rather quiet conditions for Saturday night and into Sunday. An abundance of low level moisture looks to again become trapped under a low level inversion leading to cloudy conditions Saturday night through Sunday. Late Sunday night will see the edge of next system move in as snow begins to move into the area at the very end of the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 338 PM EST Friday...Active period of weather is expected Monday into Tuesday with upper trough lifting up across the region during this time period. Thermal profile will be very interesting with high pressure building down into the region Monday morning and bringing colder air down into the lower levels. However...throughout the day low level thickness values will be a bit on the warm side. This may set the stage for some mixed precipitation at the onset of this event with snow and sleet before seeing a trend towards rain on Tuesday. Still some timing issues with the onset of precipitation as it appears it will be more in the Monday night into Tuesday time period. For now have kept things snow or rain for now...but system will need to be monitored for sleet or freezing rain potential. Strengthening pressure gradient will also be taking place Monday into Monday night from the east and southeast. This will create some downsloping conditions to limit precipitation...but also increase the potential for stronger winds due to the southeast component allowing for some gap winds. Upper trough lifts northeast of the area Tuesday night allowing for precipitation to taper off. Flow aloft quickly becomes southwest on Wednesday with general upper trough gradually sagging down into the region. This will keep a chance of showers around for the remainder of the week...but temperatures are still in the 30s so looking at some rain or snow showers. Eventually some cooler air moves in right at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 06Z Sunday...Stratus deck trapped beneath inversion layer will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next 24hrs with HIR TRRN OBSCD. IFR ceilings will generally be confined to SLK thru 18Z, but then may see IFR developing at MSS this afternoon, and possibly at the VT TAF locations Saturday night with light SW winds advecting additional low-level moisture into the area. A weak mid-level disturbance moving into prevailing ridge will bring just an outside chance of a few light rain showers or patchy drizzle. Don`t anticipate anything significant in terms of precipitation. Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...Extensive cloud cover will persist through much of Sunday with a continuation of the MVFR/IFR ceilings and VFR/MVFR visibilities owing to occasional 3-5SM BR. Widespread mixed wintry precipitation or rain will eventually move into the region later Monday and especially Tuesday for continued MVFR and IFR ceilings and in this case MVFR and IFR visibilities as well. Watch for breezy southeast downslope winds on Monday...especially at KRUT, with gusts in excess of 25kts possible. Brief period of improving conditions possible early Wednesday, before occasional RW/SW return mid- late week. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MV NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Banacos

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