Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220609 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 209 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will taper off west to east across the north country during the pre-dawn hours. Lighter rain showers and overcast skies will linger today, resulting in relatively cool temperatures. Dry conditions return on Tuesday with a brief period of surface high pressure, before another low pressure system brings more rain for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Monday...Ended rain west to east much more quickly with this update as radar trends showing back end of precip moving into western NY state, and high resolution model reflectivity showing it as well. Updated grids with a mix of the model reflectivity which has a dry period mainly this morning. Another area of scattered showers are possible this afternoon as a final weak shortwave trough moves through the region to finish things off. Also backed off QPF with the rain ending earlier. No changes to temps/winds/sky with this update. Best large-scale forcing slides to our east between 12-15Z Monday, but NAM RH profiles indicate continued saturated conditions in 950-850mb layer, and skies will generally remain cloudy with low overcast in place. The low-level inversion layer in place will keep sfc temps cool, despite 850mb thermal ridge in place (+10C to +11C) across nrn NY. Sfc high temps generally low- mid 50s east of the Greens, upr 50s in the Champlain Valley, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY. Maintained a chance of showers Monday afternoon. There is some indication of a trailing sfc trough/convergence line moving ewd across nrn NY into VT late in the afternoon, which may result in an additional period of (brief) rain shower activity. A weak sfc ridge builds newd into our region from western NY Monday night. This results in lowering inversion layer and light near-sfc winds. With moist soils, will see combination of abundant low clouds and patchy fog areawide. Moist layer is quite shallow, so not anticipating any precipitation. Lows Monday night mainly 43-48F. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EDT Sunday...The short term looks to be the quiet intermission between the unsettled periods of the near and long term. After the passage of a cold front and associated trough, a weak ridge moves in, leaving Tuesday looking like a dry and fair day across the region. Winds will remain west-southwesterly behind the front so little change in the air mass leads to warmer temperatures than just prior to frontal passage with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Gradual increased cloud cover moving in from the west Tuesday night ahead of the next system will lead to low temperatures low 50s in the western counties and 40s in the eastern half. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 339 PM EDT Sunday...The long term pics up again in activity as multiple systems will impact the area through to the weekend. A coastal low moves northeast into New England. The GFS and ECMWF still disagree on the inland advection of the precipitation with the GFS keeping it mostly offshore while the ECMWF being more aggressive and extended the precip into Southeast VT. For now have just kept chance PoPs east of the Greens for Wednesday. Thursday has a positively tilted upper trough associated surface low over Ohio Valley with a closed off upper low. The low progresses slowly to the northwest of the CWA before shifting west over the northern counties. This leads to and extended period of unsettled conditions and potential for precipitation from midday Thursday and through midday Friday as low pushes out to the coast. Lingering showers in the higher terrain remains in the resulting northwest flow through to early Saturday afternoon. The second half the weekend sees a high pressure ridge begin to build back in leading to a brief return to fair conditions. High temperatures in the long term will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Rain ending west to east but little effect on flight categories with most visibilities and cigs VFR. Ceilings to gradually lower to MVFR throughout the day, even as rain dissipates low level moisture remains trapped below the subsidence inversion under building high pressure aloft. low level winds become gusty during the day out of the south with gusts into 20-25kt range. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect starting at midnight (04Z Monday). Gradient flow increases out of the south during the pre- dawn hours Monday, with sustained winds over Lake Champlain reaching 15-25kts after midnight and waves building to 2-4 feet. The highest waves are expected across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand Isle. South winds will remain generally in the 15-25kt range during the daylight hours on Monday, before diminishing Monday evening. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Hanson MARINE...Team BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.