Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220645 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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