Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281940 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 240 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STARTING A COLDER TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1235 PM EST SUNDAY...ALL OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA NOW...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS STILL REMAIN. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD STILL MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, ENDING RAIN SHOWERS THERE. EXPECT THE BACK EDGE TO CONTINUE TO SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BEFORE 14Z, AND EXIT SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW WINDS DECREASING, SO EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. MILD TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS TRAVERSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 1140Z. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CAUSE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE THE MAX TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE M20S-M30S AROUND 5PM. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR FULL SUNSHINE TODAY, THOUGH SOME BREAKS/CLEARING ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND LOW LEVEL JET EXITS EASTWARD IN THE LATE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 343 AM EST SUNDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT, DRYING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES, ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND MID 20S. ON MONDAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NNW TO SSE, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. MODELS SHOW WEAKENING DEFORMATION AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND WASHING OUT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MONDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 30S, WHILE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AT THE SUMMITS TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING OVER TIME...ENHANCED SHSN ACROSS THE LK ONTARIO SNOWBELTS...AND A POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH A SNOW TO MIXED P-TYPE SCENARIO. BROAD-SCALE IDEA WILL BE FOR COLD WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING WED/THU IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY MOISTURE-STARVED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MEAN 850 MB TEMPS AVG FROM -12 TO -17C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY FROM THE TUG HILL REGION NORTHWARD INTO SRN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND INTO THE WESTERN DACKS. MEAN INVERSION HEIGHTS RATHER HIGH AS WELL SO HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40-60% RANGE ROUGHLY FROM THE HIGH PEAKS/SLK REGION WESTWARD. SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SHSN ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS DURING THIS PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF LAKE SNOWS AND GENERAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT AFTER HAVING A THOROUGH LOOK I IMAGINE WE`LL BE SEEING SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS OUT IN OUR NRN NY SNOWBELTS BY LATER THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ATOP THE REGION. AS A RESULT HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS AND A LIGHTLY MIXED PBL. BY LATE WEEK GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS ONBOARD SHOWING A LARGER-SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION WITH A MORE SOLID SHOT OF PCPN AREA-WIDE. SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT BACK INTO THE PICTURE...MOST NOTABLY FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z EURO RUN. HOWEVER...THE BROADER CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TAKING A PRIMARY TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE SLV. GIVEN COLDER THERMAL PROFILES IN PLACE...THIS WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL OVERRUNNING/WARM ADVECTION- DRIVEN PCPN TO FALL AS LIGHT SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES WARM BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIME WILL TELL HOW THIS EVOLVES...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MODELS HANDLE SW CONUS CUTOFFS AND POTENTIAL NRN STREAM PHASING SUGGESTS CONTINUED CLOSE MONITORING. IN ANY REGARD WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ADVERTISING A SNOW TO MIX/RAIN SCENARIO AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S TO LOCALLY AROUND 40 BY LATER SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCT/BKN MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH MODEST WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS FROM 5-12 KTS...OCCNLY GUSTY. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. WEAK ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW MAY SPARK A FEW FLURRIES AT KSLK/KMSS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME...BUT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. && .MARINE... AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS, RESULTING IN WAVES HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING LAKE CHAMPLAIN FROM THE WEST, KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG WITH CHANNELING UP THE VALLEY PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WHEN THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG MARINE...KGM

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