Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260730 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning. Behind this system a return to dry, late summer warmth is expected for Friday afternoon into Saturday of the upcoming weekend. The next chance of showers will occur by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with another weak front, followed by more warm and dry weather for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1259 AM EDT Friday...Based on satellite imagery have tweaked the sky grids to better reflect current situation of generally clear skies in Vermont and more noticeable cloud cover in New York. This sharper gradient of clouds should lead to more fog development over Vermont given clear skies...light winds...and high dew points indicating plenty of low level moisture. Going forecast of just a chance of showers during the early morning hours looks good as weak shortwave moves across the region...but it appears more active convection will remain well south of the area. On Friday the weak mid-level trough will exit east with any morning showers/sprinkles ending by noon under gradually clearing skies east to west. Synoptic background flow remains southwesterly with neutral height falls indicative of little airmass change. Averaged model 925 mb thermal progs from 18-21Z are in the 19-22C range supporting late afternoon highs mainly from 80 to 86F with perhaps a few upper 80s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Despite the warmth dewpoints will be gradually lowering in the upper 50s to lower 60s by late afternoon so humidity levels will feel tolerable. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Latest trends show system for Sunday arriving several hours earlier associated with fast westerly flow aloft. Otherwise...Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with comfortable temperatures and humidity values. I anticipate scattered fair weather cumulus clouds to develop over the terrain as temperatures climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s depending upon elevation. Light north/northwest winds will shift to the south/southwest by Saturday Night. On Sunday...first ribbon of enhanced 700 to 500mb moisture associated with weak mid level warm air advection will shift from southwest to northeast across our region. Expect maybe a few sprinkles...as moisture will have tough time reaching the ground...given dry profiles. Deeper moisture and better dynamics arrive after 18z...along with weak surface boundary in the flow aloft. This energy/moisture will produce additional scattered showers on Sunday afternoon/evening with maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Overall...instability is limited with CAPE values <500 J/kg and forcing is weak with energy getting sheared out in the fast westerly flow aloft. I will continue to mention chance pops with main focus over the mountains and after 18z Sunday. Progged 850mb temps warm to 16c ahead of boundary...but clouds may keep values in the upper 70s to mid 80s...very similar to yesterday (Thursday).
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Overall models are in good agreement with large scale pattern across our region for next week. This features a developing trof across the western and eastern conus with high amplified ridge in the middle. Temperatures will be above normal to start...but trend below normal by late next week...with even the 0C 850mb isotherm progged to make an appearance off both the latest 00z ECMWF/GFS. Some people are excited about the arrival of cooler weather and are looking forward to the upcoming winter months already. For Sunday Night into Monday will continue to mention chance pops with narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture and short wave energy diving across our region with surface boundary. A rumble or two of thunder is possible...especially northern NY around 00z. Otherwise...qpf will once again be light and generally <0.25 with this system. Surface high pres and weak cold air advection develops for Monday into Tuesday with general dry conditions and slightly above normal temps. The lack of a deep trof and limited cold air advection behind boundary...supports only minor changes in our thermal profiles for early next week. Toward the end of next week a series of short waves and associated cold front will help to carve out a deeper mid/upper level trof across the ne conus. This support a gradually cooling trend in the temps...with chances for scattered showers. The developing northwest upslope flow supports the highest pops over the mountains...especially Thursday into Friday. Progged temps start near 15c for Tuesday...but cool to 10c by Thursday and single digits by 12z Friday with brisk northwest winds. I will mention temps in the 80s Tuesday...70s by Thursday...and 60s by next Friday...with lows gradually cooling into the upper 30s to lower 50s depending upon elevation and vicinity to the warmer lake waters.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 06Z Saturday...Look for VFR/MVFR conditions through about 15z this morning as plenty of low level moisture exists ahead of an approaching cold front. This low level moisture will help to create areas of fog to help reduce visibilities. In addition... scattered showers ahead of the cold front will be moving across the area which will also contribute to the MVFR conditions. The front exits the area to the east around 15z and winds go from south-southwest to west-northwest at speeds generally around 10 knots. Its at this point that drier air moves in and VFR conditions quickly develop over the entire area for the remainder of the period. Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... 06Z Saturday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR possible. 00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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