Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 182014 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 414 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area through Wednesday before another frontal system moves in on Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A little bit cooler and drier weather are likely by Saturday under high pressure from Canada.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 415 PM EDT Tuesday...A few light rain showers have popped up in the Champlain valley on periphery of upper level shortwave passing to our Northeast. Mesoscale models all show these showers ending by about 00z with loss of daytime heating and with vorticity advection exiting our area. Tonight will be mostly clear under weak surface high pressure which will be centered to our south. Upper level ridging is also evident and low pwat air. Larger deeper valleys, St Lawrence and Champlain, will have weak pressure gradient flow out of the S SW. Elsewhere the winds will go calm or very light and allow for some river valley fog to form with decent radiational fog conditions set up. Min temps overnight will be in the 60s, a bit warmer than seasonal normals for mid July.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 415 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday will also feature fair weather with weak ridge of surface high pressure remaining. Westerly flow will pick up a bit through the day. Temperatures will be the warmest of the period on Wednesday with 850 temps pushing into the mid to upper teens. Temperatures will be warmest in the Champlain valley and Southern Connecticut River valley, upper 80s, lower to mid 80s across the rest of the area. A weak cold front will approach the Saint Lawrence valley Wednesday night and Thursday. Have just a chance for showers mentioned for Wed afternoon and evening, will lose daytime heating and little bit of instability following sunset. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the 60 to 65 degree range. These conditions should be sufficient to produce instability Thursday afternoon and forcing from the mountains should be able to produce some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Parameters for organized storms do not look like they will be a factor. Have just mentioned a low chance for showers Thursday afternoon and evening.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 334 PM EDT Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft develops over the region by Friday morning. Models disagree on timing of a disorganized front moving down over our area. The potential is there for showers and some isolated thunderstorms, especially along the higher terrain and along the international border but pining down when exactly during the morning/day/evening is not easy a this time. Flow aloft remains from the west and northwest through the weekend keeping with a chance again of terrain enhanced showers for Saturday. By Sunday, a series of shortwaves will move through the flow and continue to enhance the potential for some showers or storms. As with the previous shift, the models are again at odds with each other for timing and movement of the upcoming systems through the back half of the weekend and early next week, so again have opted to keep just chance showers ad some slight chance of the thunder through the end of the period. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s on Friday before a trending down toward seasonal normals and possibly slightly below normal by early next week. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR for the period. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus will give way to mostly clear skies overnight. Some periods of overnight fog is possible at KMPV/KSLK bringing visibility down to IFR until sunrise. Winds generally south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots during the day then calm after sunset tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Verasamy

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