Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021137 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED. GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO +5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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