Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030745 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 245 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cloudy skies with scattered rain and snow showers will persist across northern areas today with partial sunshine possible in the southern valleys by this afternoon. Fairly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday into early next week with just a low chance of rain or snow showers on Monday. A more active pattern develops by the middle and later part of next week as low pressure and deeper moisture push into the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM EST Saturday...Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered over the next 24 hours as moist northwesterly flow lingers on the back side of large-scale cyclonic gyre exiting into the maritime provinces of Canada. One final upper shortwave embedded within this flow will swing through the area this afternoon, so the idea of mainly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous snow showers in elevated terrain across the north continues to look reasonable. Here minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be possible over 1000 feet today with localized amounts into the 3-4 inch range possible at the higher summits. Some partial sunshine will be possible on the New York side of the Champlain Valley and in the upper Connecticut River Valley of southern Vermont as boundary layer deepens slightly and adiabatic descent fosters low level drying. Here the shower coverage will be considerably less, perhaps just a passing light sprinkle or flurry from time to time. High temperatures remain seasonably cool ranging through the 30s. By tonight variable clouds persist as northwesterly flow continues across the region. The clouds will tend to erode across the lower elevations through time, becoming increasingly confined to the northern higher terrain and the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley as boundary layer flow remains significantly blocked. Still looking at continued scattered snow shower activity across the higher terrain of the north where some minor additional accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be possible, though this too will wane over time as depth of moisture thins. Did lean on the milder side of temperature guidance (blended bias-corrected data) given the lingering clouds offering lows in the mid to upper 20s for most spots and locally to near 30 in the Champlain Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 349 PM EST Friday...Northwest flow persists with cloudy skies and snow showers, mainly across elevated terrain and western slopes. Froude number forecasts increasingly blocked flow throughout the night, but deeper moisture will be decreasing throughout the night. Therefore, high chance POPs focused around the terrain and immediate western slopes will decrease throughout the night with windward valleys possibly seeing a few snow showers. There is a chance for DZ/FZDZ as indicated by NAM BUFKIT thermal profiles as moisture layer shrink from above resulting in lack of ice nuclei. GFS BUFKIT brings this drier air aloft into the area later with moisture also eroding from the surface, more in line with stubborn low clouds than precipitation. At this point in time, confidence not high enough to include DZ/FZDZ in forecast. Min temperatures will generally range from the upper teens to mid 20s. Weakening northwest flow with drying trend will bring an end to snow showers mid-late Sunday morning as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Expect partial clearing of clouds under the ridge, but lingering low level moisture trap under an inversion may keep portions of the North Country in mostly cloudy skies. Max temperatures will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 349 PM EST Friday...Models consistent with regard to dry Sunday night and only low chances of light precipitation, mainly across our western counties Monday as a dampening shortwave trough moves across the region. Increasing clouds and scattered light snow, with rain mixing in the valleys will be accompanied by max temperatures in the 30s. High pressure returns with dry weather, partial sunshine and light winds Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal for early December. A mid-week storm is poised to affect the North Country, however models still differ on the evolution of southern stream 500mb shortwave moving across the SE USA and reflected at the surface as a coastal low by late Tuesday. Ridging over New England will affect how far north the 500mb shortwave travels along with progression of larger 500mb low over south central Canada. Potential for mixed precip event as the surface high slides north Tuesday night keeping NE cold air advection near the surface while warming aloft occurs as precip moves in. Still much uncertainty. && .AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 06Z Sunday...An upper trough is moving through the region. Scattered snow showers mainly in the higher elevations are occurring with a chance of some activity at the stations in the valleys as well. Expect VFR ceilings to trend down to MVFR overnight, with some local pockets of IFR mainly at KSLK/KMPV. Through the day Saturday, ceilings will linger at low VFR/MVFR before gradual improvement back to VFR overall after 21Z. Surface winds from the northwest overnight and into the daytime hours at 10-15 knots with gusts up 20 knots expected. Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... 06Z Sunday through 12Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR possible at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers. 12Z Sunday through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible, especially at KMPV/KSLK. 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...MV

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