Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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970 FXUS61 KBTV 291118 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 718 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal temperatures expected today before a cold front brings a few isolated to scattered rain showers to the North Country today, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. A large strengthening low pressure system with a warm front extending eastward into the Northeast will bring another chance for rain starting later on Sunday. This system will continue unsettled weather over the North Country for the first half of the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 718 AM EDT Saturday...Mostly cloudy to overcast skies this morning with increasing winds and a slight to low chance of scattered showers as a mid-level shortwave moves across the region through midday. Southerly winds will shift out of the west to northwest behind the shortwave with a brief period of ridging this evening through Sunday morning. Temperatures remain mild today as the day starts off in the 50s to low 60s. Expect afternoon max temperatures to reach the 60s to low 70s before winds shift out of the north to northwest and cooler air begins to filter in. Overnight lows Saturday night generally in the 30s with clearing skies for the first half of the night under the aforementioned ridging. Sunday clouds increase early as the ridge axis at the surface weakens and shifts east. Warm front associated with large strengthening closed low in the central USA will influence the North Country. Models continue to differ on placement of the front and associated precipitation. Have leaned towards cooler solution of NAM and ECMWF with clouds spreading across the North Country earlier and cooler temperatures over the area as the warm front is draped across the region. Noticeably cooler max temperatures expected to be in the 40s for northern half of the area and mid 50s to around 60 for southern portions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Still plenty of uncertainty on position of surface boundary and associated impacts on weather and temps across our cwa. Latest trends have been to lift this boundary north of our cwa on Monday...placing us in the warm section...except southeast flow around anticyclone over northern Maine...may keep eastern/central vt cooler. Have utilized a blend of high res data for grids to show sharp gradient in thermal fields from highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s eastern/central VT to near 80f western dacks from Edwards to Malone. Have noted low level northeast winds at mss on monday...which may keep the SLV locked in cooler maritime airmass with highs only in the 60s. As warm front lifts from south to north across our cwa on Sunday Night...expect some scattered showers...have placed likely pops along the international border...where best lift/moisture is located. Developing mid/upper level ridge and associated mid level dry air should keep most of Monday dry...before sharp front arrives on Monday night. Developing southerly winds will help advect deeper moisture with pws >1.0 and weak instability. Have mention schc for thunder on Monday Night with likely to Cat pops. Highest pops/qpf will be western section...with boundary weakening as it shifts eastward overnight. Overnight lows remain above normal with values mainly 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level trof continues to develop across the eastern Great Lakes/NE Conus on Tuesday into Weds...with cooler temps and unsettled weather. The combination of short wave energy aloft in the stream winds and weak secondary cold front will produce more terrain focused precip on Tuesday. Have mention likely pops in the mountains and chc in valleys with qpf values between 1 and 3 tenths of an inch. Progged 850mb temps start between 4-6c...but cool to 0c by 00z Weds...supporting highs with a well mixed boundary layer in the mid/upper 40s mountains to l/m 60s warmer valleys. Low level cold air advection conts into Weds with progged 925mb temps approaching 0c by 12z Weds with breezy northwest winds. Moisture in the west to northwest flow aloft slowly dissipates...along with the chances for precip. Expect some lingering upslope/terrain driven rain/snow showers on Weds morning...with any qpf very light. After a brief period of dry weather weds afternoon into Thursday...next large scale system will impact our region late Thursday into the weekend. This looks to produce a prolonged period of wet weather with cool temperatures. Latest ensemble data and 00z ecmwf supports a mid/upper level low becoming closed off across the eastern Conus with deep southerly flow advecting a plume of rich moisture into our cwa. Have increased pops to likely for Friday...with temps near normal for highs and above normal due to clouds/precip for overnight lows. Current trends would suggest the unsettled weather continues into next weekend...with highs mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s and lows mainly in the 40s. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with increasing mid/high clouds lowering to 6-10kft. Isolated showers possible as a weak upper disturbance traverses across the North Country today. Brief ridging this afternoon and most of tonight will result in dry conditions through 12Z Sunday. Clouds increase towards sunrise Sunday, ahead of approaching warm front. Winds out of the south to southwest less than 10kts this morning will shift west to northwest behind the upper disturbance during the mid-day. Wind speeds will quickly increase with gusts 15-25kts developing during the late morning through the afternoon hours. Winds will subside after sunset at 10kts or less. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kts. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...KGM

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