Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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391 FXUS61 KBTV 310700 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles to northern mountain communities. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds across the northeast. A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early next week.
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours and a largely persistence forecast was offered for this morning`s package. For today we`ll start the day mainly sunny, then trend partly sunny by afternoon as a shortwave upper trough passes to our immediate north and into northern Maine and the maritimes by this evening. The feature has little moisture to work with, and given a relatively dry boundary layer and thermal capping near 750 mb I`ve maintained our prior idea of just an outside shot of a passing light shower or sprinkle across the northern mountains later today. Best shot of occurrence across north central/northeastern VT in closer proximity to upper energy. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures support highs in the 70s to locally in the lower 80s in Champlain/Connecticut River Valley communities where modestly gusty west-northwest boundary layer flow will foster adiabatic downsloping effects. By tonight surface high pressure continues to build into the region as upper heights rise over time. Any evening cloudiness will trend mainly clear overnight as west to northwesterly winds become light after midnight. While confidence is only modest given a full 24 hours of drying, favorable hydrolapse profiles and lighter nocturnal boundary layer wind fields suggest including at least shot of some patchy mist and/or fog across the northern mountains in the 200-700 am time frame. Low temperatures a blend of MOS-based and bias- corrected output which support values ranging through the 40s to around 50 in milder valley locales.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows done the progression of the cold front from the western Great Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for Saturday, and dry Saturday night. ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday. Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 06z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds generally light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts overnight through 12Z, slowly backing to west, then west to northwesterly after 12Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070 AGL range after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to the north. Other than a brief mountain sprinkle, no precipitation is expected. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings through the area. 00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.