Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211812 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 112 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT WITH A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH MAIN FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMALL UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT... GENERALLY SOUTH OF MONTPELIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES SOUTH INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH JUST CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND LITTLE DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GAUGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WV/IR SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHERE MOST SITES WILL DROP IN VISIBILITY TO LOW MVFR. SIMILAR TO THE THINKING EARLIER, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN WITH PATCHY FOG. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z MON-00Z TUE...LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/DEAL

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