Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201456 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1056 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate for the better part of the next week. While Hurricane Jose will remain southeast of New England, onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont for parts of Wednesday before Jose drifts further east. Beyond this, expect overall quiet and dry conditions with with well above seasonal average temperatures throughout the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1056 AM EDT Wednesday...A few tweaks to sky cover and temps with this update. Some stratus has advected southwestward down the St. Lawrence valley, but that should be lifting out in the next couple hours. Elsewhere some mainly thin cirrostratus from Jose will cover the region and may hold temps down in the 70s in SE VT. HRRR/RAP/NAM3 holding onto a chance of a shower over southern VT this afternoon/evening with some weak instability. High pressure will keep any significant effects from Hurricane Jose at bay to the southeast of the area. While the rest of the area will see partly cloudy skies and overall dry conditions. Northerly winds today should again keep temperatures today in the upper 70s to low 80s, which is still well above seasonable normals. Overnight tonight will see another chance for patchy fog again in the protected valleys, but overall mostly clear and overnight lows in the 50`s with the Champlain Valley remaining in the low 60s. Thursday will be more of the same overall with few clouds and dry quiet conditions overall. Temperatures will again be in the upper 70s with a few valley locations again reaching 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper ridge is reinforced over the area Thursday night through Friday night. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather as Jose is forced to remain well south and east of the area. Other than some high clouds over parts of the area...plenty of sunshine will exist. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s...with upper 30s in the northern Adirondacks. Warming temperatures at 850 mb on Friday will allow for high temperatures to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper ridge builds right over the area on the weekend and 850 mb temperatures warm even more. This will put all areas in the 80s by Sunday. Jose still remains far enough south to not have an impact on the area plus it will be weakening with time. Perhaps in the Monday- Tuesday time period will the flow pattern change to allow some moisture to move into the region as Maria moves up the coast and helps to push whatever is left of Jose to lift into parts of New England. Any clouds moving in will help lower temperatures early next week...but readings will still be above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Early morning fog at MPV, SLK, and MSS will burn off in the next hour. After that, all stations will remain VFR during the daytime before another round of MFVR/IFR fog again for the same locations as this morning after 04Z. Light and variable winds this morning will become northerly at 05-10 knots after 15Z and again back to light and variable after sunset. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy/Sisson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Verasamy

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