Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280823 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 423 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A closed upper low over the western Great Lakes will move slowly south into the Ohio valley and will linger there through Saturday. A ridge of high pressure over eastern Quebec and Labrador will build slowly southwest into the region through Friday, with mostly fair and dry weather expected over the north country. The closed upper low over the Ohio Valley will move north into the Great Lakes this weekend, and will bring increasing chances for rain showers into the north country from Friday night through this weekend.
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As of 423 AM EDT Wednesday...Composite radar loop showing diminishing areal coverage of light rain showers over Essex county New York over the last few hours, as this area continues to weaken. Thus, given this weakening trend have not included any mention of showers there this morning. Expecting some morning cloud cover across portions of the Champlain valley this morning, as well as northern Vermont. Also, expecting valley fog over eastern and northeast Vermont, and the valleys of the Adirondacks to burn off by mid morning. Skies will become partly sunny today, with highs mainly in the 60s. Models showing a ridge of high pressure over eastern Quebec and Labrador will build southwest into the north country today and tonight, as the closed upper low over the western Great Lakes moves south into the Ohio valley today. Thus, expecting mainly fair and dry weather for today and tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...The synoptic scale setup continues to feature a closed 5h cyclonic circulation over the ohio valley with building ridge and associated surface high pressure over southern canada for Thursday into Friday. Weak spokes of energy rotate around 5h circulation....along with ribbons of enhanced moisture...but weaken across southern vt as they encounter dry air/subsidence. Given the sharp moisture gradient and associated qpf fields continued to mention schc 15 to 20% Thursday Night with chance pops for Friday...mainly across our southern section. Still some uncertainty with regards to how much low level Atlantic moisture advects into our eastern section on 975 to 925mb winds of 15 to 25 knots. Based on less clouds will mention highs lower 70s Northern Saint Lawrence Valley with lower 60s southeast VT for both Thursday and Friday with lows mainly in the 40s colder mountain valleys to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Closed 5h circulation over the Ohio Valley slowly lifts toward our region...with deeper moisture and higher pops chances for the weekend. Still not expecting a washout...but several rounds of showers are possible as 5h vort lobes and favorable upper level divergence moves across our region. Furthermore...southerly flow at 500 mb...with easterly 850mb flow will help advect higher pw values near 1.40" across our region over the weekend. Once again pops will be mainly in the chance category with highest qpf values confined to the mountains of vt and parts of the dacks on Saturday and Sunday. Plenty of clouds and little 925mb to 850mb change in temps...will result in highs mainly in the 60s and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. A few lingering showers are possible on Monday...but as building high pres from central canada develops...expect areal coverage/intensity of showers to decrease with mainly dry conditions by Tuesday. Slightly cooler temps follow departing trof with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s for early next week. The bufkit profile at BTV thru 180 hours continues to show <0.10" of qpf (very light) and near 0.50" at VSF...indicating the qpf gradient. && .AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period, except for areas of valley fog across eastern and northeast Vermont with areas of IFR/LIFR until 13Z Wednesday. Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday... 06z Thu - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR. 00z Fri - 00z Mon: Mainly VFR with MVFR in rain showers possible, especially on Saturday/Sunday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.