Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 032309 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 709 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE VERMONT COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. HAVE TWEAKED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS TO MAINLY BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE FROM AREAS BEING HIT BY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY STORMS AT ALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NGT BUT STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD SPOTS. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18-24Z. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK BETWEEN 07-12Z TUE. SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AFT 16Z TUE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SSW WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 22-24Z THEN LGT BETWEEN 00-12Z THEN SW/W AT 10 KNOTS AFT 12Z TUE. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW EQUIPMENT...JMG

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