Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 261724
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1224 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
Local waterways continue to recede as cooler temperatures
prevail and light snow shower activity decreases. Monday will
be quiet weatherwise...but expect periods of rain with much
above normal temperatures for Tuesday into Wednesday. The
potential for additional hydro concerns will need to be watched
closely. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along
with chances for mainly mountain snow showers.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1223 PM EST Sunday...Minor update to capture latest
trends...otherwise forecast in great shape this afternoon.
Expecting highs in the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s with a few
lingering flurries possible in the mountains.
Several updates need to current forecast...which include
increase pops across the northern mountains...decreasing temps
by several degrees thru this morning based on obs...and
adjusting winds. Current radar shows scattered snow showers
across the northern Dacks into the northern CPV and parts of the
central/northern mountains of VT. This activity will slowly
dissipate by early afternoon...as moisture profiles
decrease...but a spotty inch or two of additional snow is
possible in the mountains...especially near Jay Peak. Forecast
area continues under modest low level cold air advection on
breezy west/northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots...thinking highs
will range from the mid/upper 20s mountain towns to mid 30s
warmer valleys with a few upper 30s possible near VSF. The
combination of cooler temperatures will limit snow
melt/runoff...resulting in rivers and streams to recede. See
hydro section below for additional details.
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.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Warming trend begins on Monday and
continues right into Tuesday. Highs will be in the 40s on Monday
and in the 40s to around 50 on Tuesday. Other than some light
showers in the mountains on Monday...not really expecting much
in the way of precipitation. Chances will increase beginning
Tuesday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an
approaching upper level trough of low pressure. Temperatures
will be warm enough on Tuesday for the precipitation to be in
the form of rain.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Extended forecast looks similar to
yesterday with continued southwest flow aloft Tuesday night into
Thursday morning. Moisture and dynamic support increases during
this time period in advance of the approaching trough.
Precipitation should become fairly widespread during this time
period and temperatures will remain warm enough for the
precipitation to be in the form of rain. At this time Wednesday
looks to be the day with the most rainfall...but heavy rain is
not expected at this time. Despite the clouds and precipitation
on Wednesday...highs will be in the 50s and a few spots could
hit 60. A transition will take place on Thursday as the upper
trough moves east of the area and more pronounced northwest flow
aloft develops on the backside of the upper trough. This will
allow for colder and drier weather to move back into the region
by the weekend and we may actually see below normal
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SCT/BKN
cigs mainly from 040-050 AGL range through 00Z before skies
trend mainly clear this evening. Some return of SCT/BKN VFR
cigs from 050-090 AGL return later tonight into Monday. Winds
most problematic element, gusting into the 18-25 kt range from
the west/northwest through 22Z before abating and trending light
south/southwesterly by 00Z. By 06Z south/southwesterly flow
increases and trends gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range after 12Z
Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...
18Z Monday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions.
18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers
with variable cigs from VFR to IFR depending on time period as
low pressure crosses the region.
06Z Thursday onward...Scattered snow showers/flurries and
occasional MVFR/IFR conditions early trend mainly VFR after 18Z
As of 1210 PM EST Sunday...Most rivers have crested this
morning with latest hydro graphs showing water levels receding.
Still expecting the Winooski River at Essex and Otter Creek at
Center Rutland to crest this afternoon...along with some ice
jams on the Great Chazy and Passumpsic causing minor flood
related issues. No more contributions from snowmelt and rainfall
are expected as colder air is helping to end the snowmelt. Our
plan is to drop the flood watch with the afternoon package, as
no additional or new flooding is anticipated.
VT...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-