Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011453 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INCREASING QUICKLY WITH ANYWHERE FROM 700 TO 1500 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT THEY ARE IN PROCESS OF DECREASING...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SOME SHOWERS OUT AHEAD MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH, THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG, 35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS IN THE 050-100 AGL RANGE AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 4 TO 10 KT. A BRIEF/WIDELY SCT SHOWER/ISOLD STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT THROUGH 16Z, THEN AT KMSS/KSLK IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE LOW HOWEVER ON ACTUAL OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OCCURRENCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ATTM. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...JMG

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