Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300539 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1013 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXITING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS BUT MORE OF A SOLID CLOUD DECK ENTERING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL PUT A BLANKET TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT. HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN). FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME: GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS TREND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION. WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY, 30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED. LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...SLW SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...TABER

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