Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231712 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1212 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1210 PM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. INTRODUCED JUST A FEW BREAKS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. LINGERING SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE MORNING HRS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND 850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT EARLY MONDAY. WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK, FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP AT THE ONSET. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT KMSS/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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