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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 201508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1108 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 108 AM EDT MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER THE
REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPS COOLER THAN FCST...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO RADAR
TRENDS...MOSTLY DRYING...WITH UPSTREAM NW FLOW BRINGING IN SLGTLY
LOWER DWPTS. SO EXPECT GENERAL DRYING TREND TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 16Z. AT KRUT...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO S-CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN. CEILINGS AND VSBY CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT TRENDING VFR THIS AFTN
AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF PRIMARILY VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH CIGS 1-2 KFT CURRENTLY AT RUT. CURRENTLY OVC008
AT SLK...AND THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14-15Z WITH
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS INITIALLY SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN WITH TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-7 KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT
BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE TIME FRAME AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS