Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171424 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The next few days will be a bit unsettled with some isolated to scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the mountains. Any snow accumulations will be light and confined to the higher peaks. The shower chances will end later in the week but temperatures will remain around or below climatological normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1020 AM EDT Sunday... A batch of showers is shifting east into the Champlain Valley behind a cold front now exiting the Northeast Kingdom. These showers should be sustained by increasing lapse rates and the development of 200 J/kg of CAPE over eastern Vermont. So as activity moves east of the Greens, some of those stronger showers may try to produce some pea-sized hail. Tweaked PoPs based on current trends, and by this afternoon, we should see some additional activity across northern New York spark. Previous forecast follows.... A line of heavier precipitation is currently moving across the forecast area from west to east. It should leave Vermont by mid- morning and only a few showers should remain behind it. Total liquid equivalent precipitation will be under a quarter inch except in the mountains where totals up to 0.4 inches are possible. Snow levels will be around 2500 ft so any accumulations will be limited to the highest terrain. Behind the line of precipitation, lapse rates will steepen and deep mixing will occur. This should cause a few convective showers during the day. West to southwest flow will limit orographic showers to the far northern Greens where there will be some snow showers in the highest elevations. Highs in the broad valleys will be in the upper 40s to around 50 but with the steep lapse rates, highs in the mountains will only be a few degrees above freezing. Any convection should dissipate overnight but with temperatures dropping close to freezing, any lingering showers could fall as snow anywhere. A very similar setup will occur on Monday where more scattered convective showers and orographic precipitation will occur, with the orographic precipitation again mostly confined to the far northern Greens. However, winds will begin to shift toward more northwesterly later during the day and this should allow orographic snow showers to fall father south on the Greens as well. Flow should be unblocked so the orographic precipitation should fall closer to the ridgetops or even on the lee sides or the mountains. A shortwave will pivot through later in the day on Monday and enhance the snow showers as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be decreasing with upslope northwesterly flow continuing to favor isolated to scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains into Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the boundary with cold air advection dropping lows into the teens for the Adirondacks and 20s elsewhere Tuesday morning. Likewise, high temperatures will be trending down as well, generally in the 30s a few degrees below seasonal averages. With breezes conditions may feel comparatively brisk to recent temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Longwave troughing settles over eastern Canada with the North Country likely remaining towards the base of the trough. A frontal system seems probable with most models projecting passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. The continental nature of the airmasses will largely preclude heavy precipitation, but a few inches of snow above 2500ft seems reasonable while flow pattern favors a quick moving system. With projected zonal flow south of the region, and position of the longwave trough, conditions should remain unsettled through the end of the week into the weekend. Model consensus favors colder than average temperatures for Thursday with highs struggling to reach 32 degrees. The rest of the extended forecast will feature near/slightly below average temperatures and periods of lower elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday... Steady rain will move out of the region by mid-morning and and there will only be a few scattered showers for the rest of the day. These showers could be locally heavy enough to briefly reduce visibilities. Snow could mix into these showers and reduce visibilities farther at SLK. Ceilings have mostly bottomed out and will begin to quickly rise by mid-morning as deep mixing will occur. Ceilings should therefore rise to VFR at all terminals by afternoon. Any LLWS threat will subsequently end as stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Winds will shift from southwest to more westerly during the day before switching back to southwest overnight. Winds will also increase during the day and gusts up to 25 kts are possible at any terminal. Winds will then gradually decrease tonight. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHSN, Scattered SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Myskowski

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