Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016
Surface high pressure around the southern Great Lakes region will
keep the North Country dry on Wednesday with temperatures in the
80s to lower 90s. This ridge of high pressure will slide south as
a cold front sinks southeastward from southeastern Quebec producing
showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday. Unsettled
weather will continue on Friday. High temperatures will be at or
slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1211 AM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast in real good shape
with just some minor tweaks to lower sky cover. Clear skies and
light winds will lead to patchy fog developing...especially in the
Previous forecast discussion...
Wednesday - Morning fog will burn off in plentiful sunshine and
southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching from southeastern
Ontario. 925mb temperatures reaching 23C to 24C with surface max
temperatures climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. As the day
progresses, mid to high level clouds will increase from the
northwest, ahead of aforementioned cold front and PWATS begin to
increase from less than one inch to over 1.25 inches late in the
day in the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase late in the day as well.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak frontal boundary north of the
international border early Wednesday evening will be the main
focus for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development
as it slowly sags southward through the North Country Wednesday
night through Thursday night. Overall we`re looking at fairly weak
forcing with the parent upper low well north of the area just east
of James Bay, and any shortwave energy rounding the base of the
trough being meager at best. That said, convective activity will
be largely instability driven, meaning lower chances during the
night, higher during the day/afternoon. In addition, any storms
that do develop will be more the "garden variety" type and not
severe with weak shear/CAPE profiles in place. Likely to see some
brief heavy downpours though with any stronger cores that do
develop as PWAT progs jump up to around 1.5". Lows both nights
will be fairly close to normal though slightly above in the upper
50s to upper 60s Wednesday night ahead of the front, and mid 50s
to lower 60s behind the front Thursday night. Highs Thursday will
be right around normal in the low/mid 80s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Still some uncertainty on the forecast
going into the end of the week and weekend but feel global models
are converging on a drier forecast with high pressure over central
Ontario and the Great Lakes Thursday night slowly meandering over
the Northeast through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast
comes with a strong thermal boundary to our south coinciding with
a fast westerly flow aloft with possible embedded shortwaves
ejecting out of convective activity over the mid-west. Feeling is
that outside of a few showers across southern Vermont on Friday,
we should be mainly dry through the Sunday with the boundary
remaining south and temps right around seasonal normals.
As we move into the early part of next week, we`ll reintroduce
some low chances for showers and thunderstorms as the
aforementioned high drifts off the eastern seaboard with warmer
and more humid weather returning on increasing southerly flow.
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 06z Thursday...Other than periods of LIFR/VLIFR
conditions at KSLK and KMPV through 13z...VFR conditions are
expected everywhere in the area. There may be a few showers up
near the Canadian Border between 21z and 03z. Winds will generally
be under 10 knots through the period.
Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday...
06z Thu - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Thursday
00z Sat - 00z Mon: VFR.
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