Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311430 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN. COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20 MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION. WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL +16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT. GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW MARINE...WFO BTV

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