Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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845 FXUS61 KBTV 261756 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 156 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry weather for much of the day today with above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. An upper level disturbance will move across the North Country tonight and with increasing moisture...the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will exist. The Memorial Day weekend will then feature above normal temperatures...more humid conditions...and the threat for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 153 PM EDT Thursday...Forecast remains on track for this afternoon with some minor adjustments made to temps and precipitation timing. Lot of interesting features out there this afternoon with the latest surface and upper air analysis showing a mid/upper level ridge cresting over the region, a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes through just south of the Mohawk Valley to southern New England, and a few very nondescript shortwave troughs upstream supporting some convective development coming into western New York. Some diurnally driven cumulus have developed over the Adirondacks, which is where latest hi-res models show the best chance for some isolated convection to develop within the next 3 or so hours. Previous forecast had this idea in mind as well, just a few hours later so have bumped up the timing accordingly. In addition, mean 925mb temps are trending slightly cooler than yesterday, and as a result surface temps are running about 3-5 degrees cooler respectively. It`s still a warm day compared to climo, and we should see most areas top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Moving on into tonight, after perusing all the latest 12z near/short term guidance, the main forecast idea will be that any convective development over the Adirondacks will dissipate this evening with the loss of surface instability due to daytime heating, with any additional convection firing over Western New York this afternoon riding along the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary to our south. Best chances for precipitation, albeit low, during the overnight should be along our southern tier zones accordingly, and mainly through midnight or a couple hours beyond, with generally dry conditions to the north. Mid clouds become more abundant through the night area-wide with very light surface winds, leading to mild overnight lows ranging from the 50s in the Adirondacks and Central/Northeast Vermont, to lower 60s elsewhere, which are a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range, especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet. Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap, perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90. Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again. Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled by warm temperatures creating instability. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely mentioned at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with isolated/scattered afternoon shra/tsra locally and briefing reducing cigs/vsby to MVFR/IFR. Through most of the overnight, dry conditions should prevail with mid clouds becoming BKN-OVC. Winds light and variable. Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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