Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291917 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will continue this afternoon before a cold front swings through the North Country. The front will bring a few isolated rain showers to region followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. A large strengthening low pressure system over the Ohio valley region will lift a warm front through New England bringing another chance for rain Sunday afternoon and evening. This will start a period of unsettled weather over the North Country for the first half of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 224 PM EDT Saturday...Clouds are beginning to give way to dry air behind a cold front over the Saint Lawrence valley. Temps will continue to be above normal throughout the day as we`ve seen deep mixing even under mostly cloudy skies. Highs across the area will continue to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s before the winds shift late. The front continues to be slower to move through so the wind shift and the cold air still remains to our north and west. The front will eventually swing through this evening and as it does the winds will shift from southwesterly to more northwesterly and the cold air will filter in. With clearing skies overnight and winds weakening expect decent radiational cooling to take place leading to lows in the 30s for the North Country. I know it seems like thats "cold" but its actually near normal for late April in the North Country. On Sunday the clouds will thicken and increase early as a warm front associated with a deepening surface low pressure system over the central CONUS lifts into the North Country. Expect scattered showers to increase over northern New York with only some isolated showers over Vermont. There will be some slight mountain enhancement so I`ve offered slightly higher probabilities for showers on the western slopes. There is definitely some high bust potential with regards to the timing of the warm front and warmer air for Sunday. We start out on the cool side and will slowly warm as the front lifts north. I continued the trend of staying on the cooler side of guidance because of the winds from the models. Based on the idea that the warm air advection wont really get started until mid afternoon I dont see how we`d warm to the upper 50s that MOS and GFS based guidance present. Expect generally low 50s in the Champlain and Connecticut river valleys with upper 40s in the typically colder hollows of northern New York and the Northeast Kingdom. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Interesting period of weather with warm front Sunday night over the far northern portions of New York and Vermont. Expecting showers along and north of the boundary...essentially north of and Ogdensburg to Burlington to Saint Johnsbury line Sunday night but as warm front lifts northward on Monday the area of showers should lift north of the Canadian border as well. Much of the area will get in the warm sector on Monday...especially during the afternoon hours...but not all of the area will realize the potential for warmer temperatures. This will be due to the low level flow where areas of the Greens in Vermont will have southeast flow and this will keep clouds and cooler temperatures over the area. The Champlain Valley and northern Adirondacks will benefit the most with many locations getting into the 70s. Low level northeast flow in the Saint Lawrence Valley will keep highs in the 60s. Eventually the cold front will move across the area Monday night from west to east and precipitation chances will increase over the entire area. More appreciable rainfall is expected with amounts in the half inch to one inch range and the possibility will exist for some thunderstorms and have continued the slight chance mention. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Cold front will have moved east of the region on Tuesday but upper trough lags back over eastern Canada and the Northeast. This will help to keep the threat of showers going across the area...especially over the higher terrain. Eventually some drying should take place Wednesday night into Thursday...but another trough of low pressure will move in for Friday and the start of the weekend to enhance the chances once again for showers. There will be an overall trend toward below normal temperatures Wednesday into Thursday followed by a slow warming trend Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. Brief ridging this evening will see dry conditions through 12Z Sunday. VFR clouds will increase towards sunrise Sunday, ahead of approaching warm front. Winds generally out of the southwest will shift west to northwest behind the upper disturbance late this afternoon. Excellent mixing due to steep lapse rates will see gusty winds develop and channel especially up the Saint Lawrence Valley. Overnight the winds will subside to 10kts or less. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Windy with gusts to 32 kts. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal

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