Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272320 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 620 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 620 PM EST THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA TO BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE ACRS OUR FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C...FROUDE #`S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY LOW BTWN 0.40 AND 0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION. ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 618 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A -1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A -1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16 TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY 05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL

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