Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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462 FXUS61 KBTV 172353 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 653 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley overnight. A secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island late tonight and will move slowly eastward south of New England on Wednesday. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be over the North Country overnight through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the region through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 645 PM EST Tuesday...No significant changes to the forecast needed at this point. Precipitation is gradually overspreading nrn NY and VT at 2330z, with mainly sleet occurring across nrn NY, and snow across VT (in Rutland and Addison Counties thus far). Did see a brief period of rain at KRUT, but temperatures quickly cooled to 32F as low-levels moistened and the switch to snow was quick as expected. The same process should take place in the immediate BTV area next hour or so as precipitation develops. It appears best forcing and moisture is going to affect s-central VT, and the ern slopes of the Greens Mtns, in particular, due to sely winds 25-30kts in the 925-850mb layer (upslope flow). Already seeing 1/2SM moderate snow at KVSF, and suspect highest accumulations by morning will be along the ern slopes of the Greens Mtns from Ludlow to Brookfield. Total snowfall amounts will range from 3-6" along the ern slopes of the Greens, to 2-4" across wrn VT and far nrn sections of the state. With the mix of sleet and ZR at times, anticipate 1-3" snow/sleet generally across nrn NY. Slick travel is expected overnight with snow covered roads possible, so allow extra time if traveling. Expecting precipitation to wind down Wednesday morning, with some light rain or snow possible Wednesday afternoon. Have lowered pops to slight chance for Wednesday night for some light rain or snow showers possible. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 316 PM EST Tuesday...Generally improving conditions as 500mb shortwave exits east and ridge begins to build in over the North Country. Lingering light showers focused over the high terrain will diminish Thursday and Thursday night. Cooler air will accompany high pressure with 925mb temperatures remaining in the negative single digits to single digits above 0C. As the 500mb ridge crests over the region, gradually clearing skies will result in min temperatures in the 20s to low 30s throughout the period. Max temperatures will generally range from the mid 30s to low 40s Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 316 PM EST Tuesday...A shortwave will attempt to move into the 500mb ridge and produce a slight chance for precipitation but reinforcing ridge at the surface and limited moisture will likely lead to some clouds but not much precip Saturday into Saturday night. More significant system will develop a closed surface low Sunday night around the Ohio River Valley with large southern stream 500mb low. Moisture feeding from Carolina coast will bring PWATs around 1 inch into the North Country as negatively tilted 500mb trough moves NEwd. This will result in warm air aloft and possible mixed precip moving into the North Country from south to north late Monday. Models differ on track of primary surface low, affecting how much warm air moves into the region. But GFS and ECMWF agree on strong low level jet of 50-65kts late Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions will deteriorate rather quickly from VFR to to MVFR/IFR as wintry mix moves into the area in the form of snow/sleet as well as some freezing rain for New York stations. Conditions will remain around MVFR through then end of the period even after the precipitation begins to taper off after 15Z. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though the period with winds 05-15 knots. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow showers. 00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ006>012-017>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ029- 087. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ028- 030-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/MV

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