Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 022342 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 742 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL DRYING IN ITS WAKE. BUT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS REMAINING IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT, EXPECT CLOSED LOW TO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE SOIL AND VEGETATION MOIST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DIMINISHES WINDS TO CALM-LIGHT. SO AS LOW CLOUDS EXIT EASTWARD, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT FOG TO BE THICK AT TIMES. BEFORE BURNING OFF IN THE MORNING SUNSHINE. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 12C-13C WITH UNHINDERED SUNSHINE YIELDING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. WITH THURSDAY 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS, EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. SOUTHERLY STREAM 500MB TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ATTEMPTS TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERING JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE TROUGH WEAKENING, EXPECT MOSTLY INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE IN TO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COME MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WHICH BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANGE TAKES PLACE FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN STRATUS DECK THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO LESSEN...PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. WET SURFACE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THEIR CROSS- OVER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SLK/MSS WILL SEE FOG/BR EARLIEST...FOLLOWED BY MPV. DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR LIKELY. BTV LESS CERTAIN...BUT FOG LIKELY NEARBY...WILL SHOW TEMPO TO MVFR FOR NOW. NO FOG CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AT RUT/PBG. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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