Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261433 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 933 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 930 AM EST FRIDAY...CRNT FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CRNT TEMPS/WINDS...BASED ON HRLY DATA. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS MTN WAVE CLOUD APPEARANCE...INDICATING WINDS FLOWING PERPENDICULAR TO THE MTNS AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACRS THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN CPV. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW MTN FLURRIES AND TEMPS HOLDING STEADY WL BE THE THEME FOR TODAY`S FCST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 24 HRS OF WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING (AFTER BEING WELL INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE AND BRIEFLY REACHING 50 AT BTV EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING). THAT SAID...THE PREVAILING WESTERLY 950-850MB FLOW COMBINED WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS MAINTAINING TRAPPED STRATUS LAYER FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT BLOCKED TODAY (FROUDE #S TRENDING < 1)...BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS...INCLUDING THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE IN MOST SECTIONS...AIR MASS REMAINS MILD BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 0C TO -3C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ALSO LOOKING AT A VERY MILD START (CLIMO AVERAGE LOWS ARE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS FOR DEC 26TH). TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS, GENERALLY REACHING 40-45F RANGE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN W-WSW AT 10-15 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25 MPH. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FOR INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND NRN GREENS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OVER THE SUMMITS THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 217 AM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WITH A MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE INTL BORDER. MAIN ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVAILING STRATUS...AND 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PESSIMISTIC FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS 3-4KFT AGL. MAINTAINED GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. ALSO STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS WITH CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. LOWS GENERALLY UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT (15DEG ABOVE NORMAL) FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ON SATURDAY (10-15DEG ABOVE NORMAL). SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SWLY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED A POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF DUSTING-2" SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PBL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AS SHOWERS END. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE NWLY WINDS WITH QUASI-STEADY TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR MOST SECTIONS ON SUNDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 327 AM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL QUIET FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKENDS COLD FRONT. ISOLATED LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING CLOUDS AS WELL AS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING IN MAX TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW UNIFORM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH 850MB, BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH KSLK HANGING ONTO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ALL SITES EXPECTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN OVC ESPECIALLY MID DAY. KSLK MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT, WHILE REST OF THE TAF SITES MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW AT 5-10KTS THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. KMSS AND KSLK WILL SEE GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT SW TO SSW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDE WIND SPEEDS TO ABOUT 5 KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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