Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 100458 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1258 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1251 AM EDT THURSDAY...CLEARING SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOME 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME FOG IN LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY...AND ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW OF THE OTHER FOG PRONE PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVE CUMULUS CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS...THEREFORE WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW...MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATTERN WL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS NEXT LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK AND MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY...BUT SYSTEM WL ONCE AGAIN HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL DRY PUNCH. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS FCST AND MENTION CHC POPS SUNDAY THRU TUES...WITH BEST CHCS ON MONDAY INTO TUES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT/ULVL TROF. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BTWN 800 TO 1200 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASE BTWN 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL WIND MAXIMUM. THIS SETUP WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SCENARIO TO CHANGE. TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. THICKNESS VALUES AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY FLW MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. ALSO...AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES WL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC COLD FRNT...RESULTING IN TEMPS RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL LVLS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR MIST AT SLK AND RUT. REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 23Z SHOWS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED RUT EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT IN FAR SOUTHERN VERMONT THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE RUT TAF - BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING VCSH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND A HALF. SFC RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN WITH SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY BECOMING SKC. QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF ANY MIST OR FOG CAN DEVELOP...CONTINGENT UPON LLVL INVERSION/DECOUPLING AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BL WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING. BEST SHOT AT THIS HAPPENING APPEARS TO BE SLK UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT...BUT I`VE ALSO OFFERED TEMPO 2SM BR AT RUT BASED ON CURRENT NARROW T/TD SPREAD AND THAT IT RAINED THERE TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-9 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SFC RIDGE IN PLACE THURSDAY TO PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW/SCT CUMULUS ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING MIST BURNS OFF. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 4-7 KTS...THOUGH SOUTHWEST 4-7 KTS AT MSS. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING BTWN 06Z- 11Z. SHOWERS/STORMS CHCS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

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