Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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160 FXUS61 KBTV 061520 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cloudy skies this morning with some breaks in the clouds possible this afternoon. Next weather system arrives early Wednesday Morning and brings another round of light accumulating snow during the morning commute. Additional chances for snow showers are in the forecast for Thursday into Friday as colder air begins to moves in to the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1011 AM EST Tuesday...main item for the mid-morning update was to try to tackle the stubborn low level clouds. we`ve got shallow moisture, primarily below 3500 feet (so some beautiful scenes from the summits looking out over the "undercast") that is stuck below a fairly strong inversion. Given the limited amount of atmospheric mixing, the eroding of the clouds via the dry air higher aloft is going to be painfully slow. Looks like clouds will linger longest in the Champlain Valley and in parts of the St Lawrence Valley. One of those cases where the higher elevations are seeing the sunshine first. Thus have pushed back the partial clearing into mid-afternoon for those areas not already seeing some sun. Also reduced the high temperatures a few degrees, primarily in the Champlain Valley due to those pesky low clouds. rest of the discussion from earlier follows below... Tonight we will have our next system approaching from the Southwest. This is another warm front with some decent shortwave energy. It should stay cold enough across our area to mainly just see snow with this feature. Overnight minimum temperatures will be around the mid 20s to around 30. Light snow will move into our forecast area from the Southwest during the second half of the overnight hours. Have mainly high chance to low likely pops and have also gone with mention of light snow. This feature will weaken over time as it tracks Northeastward. Best shortwave energy will exit off the Mid Atlantic coast. Expect just minor snow accumulations with this event, generally just 1-2 inches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...A weak frontal system moves through the region Wednesday morning with some light snow. QPF amounts are lighter than on Monday`s snow event, but still timing will again be during the Wednesday morning commute, so some slippery conditions will be possible on any untreated road surfaces. Expecting precipitation will wind down and come mostly to an end by midday on Wednesday. Thus, have lowered pops for Wednesday afternoon. Expecting a mainly cloudy but dry night on Wednesday night. On Thursday, a cold front will move south from Canada and bring a chance for more rain and snow showers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...Much colder air will be moving into the region from Thursday night through this weekend, with high temperatures only in the 20s Saturday and Sunday.Expecting a chance of snow showers from Thursday night through Friday night. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region for Saturday and Saturday night, with fair and dry weather expected. A warm front will approach the region by Sunday afternoon, so have gone with a chance of light snow Sunday afternoon. Expecting light snow to continue into Sunday night across the north country. ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences on Monday, with the GFS having a low over Canada on Monday, while the ECMWF model has some waves of low pressure moving northeast across southern New England. However, both models are indicating precipitation across the region on Monday, so have a chance a chance for rain or snow on Monday. && .AVIATION /15Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites with the exception of Rutland which is VFR. Conditions will improve through the daytime hours today, perhaps some sunshine at RUT and MPV especially. Clouds will then move back into the region after 00z ahead of next approaching weak system which will bring some snow showers after 06z. Winds will generally be under 10 kts through the period. Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday... Another warm front produces another round of widespread light snow across our region on Wed. Similar to Monday`s event thinking a period of ifr/lifr likely between 12z-18z Weds across our taf sites with vis below 2sm and cigs between 500 feet and 2000 feet. An arctic boundary will produce more scattered snow showers and potential snow squalls on Thursday into Friday with brief periods of ifr conditions possible. Improving conditions with mvfr valleys and ifr/mvfr in scattered snow showers persist on Saturday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Nash SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Neiles

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