Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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095 FXUS61 KBTV 282343 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... We hope you were able to enjoy the nice day today because conditions are going to change beginning on Memorial Day. Widespread showers will move across the area during the day with clouds keeping temperatures in the 60s. The showers end Monday night...but another round of showers and some thunderstorms will move across the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 739 PM EDT Sunday...No significant changes for 730 pm update. Clouds are moving into the area as expected. 50s looks good to me for lows tonight with clouds and breezy conditions. Previous discussion follows. Still looking at widespread showers to move across the area from west to east on Memorial Day. Slower timing of precipitation onset seems to be the trend with showers developing across northern New York during the morning hours and across Vermont from late morning into the afternoon. Plenty of clouds will exist with highs generally in the 60s. Total rainfall on Monday will generally be in the quarter to half inch range. At this time it looks like the precipitation will come to an end during the evening hours. However...the next chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will move back in after midnight Monday night with the best convective potential coming later on Tuesday. See discussion below for details. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s to the mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday continues to look potentially active with the threat of numerous showers and possible thunderstorms as several pieces of shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft rotate into the region associated with broad upper level low pressure over central Ontario. Latest GFS and NAM continue to show a modest 850mb thermal ridge over the area ahead of these features, as well as the potential for surface instability on order of 500-1000 J/kg and impressive 0-3km and 0-6km shear of 30-40kts and 50-60kts respectively. Uncertainly does lie in the timing of the shortwaves moving through as the first looks to track through central/western areas during the morning hours, which could limit insolational heating and subsequent instability for the afternoon when the second shortwave moves in. That said, will continue to highlight likely PoPs for showers and increase to chance coverage for thunderstorms, none of which I think will have the potential to become severe. Showers and any convective activity diminish going into the overnight hours with a dry but mostly cloudy and mild night on tap with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...Extended period continues to look unsettled as a broad mid-upper level trough will be our controlling weather feature with persistent southwesterly flow over the region. Extending from northern Ontario southward into the Great Lakes beginning Wednesday, this feature very slowly drifts eastward over the Northeast through the week and into the weekend, finally looking to exit into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night into Sunday. Several shortwave troughs rounding the base of the parent trough will generate chances for precipitation just about every day, with the best chances for shower activity generally being during afternoon periods, where the combination of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and surface heating will result in shallow instability and shower development. Thursday looks to potentially be dry in-between shortwave troughs, with the best day of the week coming Sunday as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft builds over the Northeast. Temps during the period look to be very seasonal, with daytime highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 00Z Tuesday....VFR conditions most of the period with only increasing clouds above 5000 feet tonight. Looks like main area of showers will move in from the west after 12z and thus the 12z to 18z period will see ceilings and visibilities lowering into the MVFR category. Winds will be under 10 knots through 12z then gust to 20 knots from the south and southeast after 12z. Showers will then be ending before 00z with very slow improvement to ceilings overnight. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... Winds will be increasing tonight from the south and reach the 15 to 25 knot range after midnight. Thus a lake wind advisory has been issued. These winds will create rather choppy conditions and the stronger winds are expected on Memorial Day and should continue right into Tuesday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson/Neiles MARINE...Evenson

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