Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 212329 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front moving southward from Quebec may bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the international border through this evening. Otherwise, looking for dry conditions overnight and through much of the weekend. Northwest winds Saturday and Sunday will bring slightly cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring our next chance for widespread precipitation, with periods of showers expected Sunday night into Monday across the North Country. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 141 PM EDT Friday...Relatively quiet near-term forecast with a west-northwesterly mid-upper level flow regime in place across nrn NY and New England. Winds across the region have been SW-W this afternoon, and downslope warming allowing temps to climb into the mid 80s across much of the Champlain Valley and Connecticut Valley this afternoon. There is a weak trough/cold front across srn Quebec which will settle southward near the Intl. Border this evening. This sfc feature may provide just enough low-level convergence/ascent to yield a shower or thunderstorm (SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg), and have maintained 20% PoPs across the far nrn counties thru 01Z this eve. Thereafter, should be a relatively quiet night with weak nw wind shift and just some patchy nocturnal fog possible in the favored spots within the nrn Adirondack region and deeper river valleys of central/ern VT. Overnight lows generally 60-63F, except upr 50s in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Pleasant conditions Saturday with nwly winds 5-10 mph yielding slightly cooler high temps (upr 70s - lower 80s). Weak sfc high pressure builds swd from srn Quebec, keeping conditions quiet Saturday night with lows mainly in the 50s. Light wind conditions may yield some additional valley fog 06-12Z Sunday in the favored valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 431 PM EDT Friday...I`m being a bit more optimistic for Sunday as shortwave ridging and drier airmass in place will hold off any shower threat til aft 00z Monday for most of area. In fact, best lift and moisture advection will be aft Midnight thus focus of greatest pops. It should be a decent day although Saturday is the pick of the weekend with highs on Sunday M-U70s to L80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 431 PM EDT Friday...Northern stream shortwave/trof moving across the region Monday - Monday night with surface low tracking along and south of area with showers and can`t rule out any isold/embeedding t-storms if enough breaks allow for some heating. Trof axis and trof shifting east of area on Tuesday with still a threat of leftover showers in eastern sections but ridging moving in at all levels for later Tuesday through Wednesday. However, very similar to the pattern all summer so far...overall NW cyclonic flow with shortwave energy every 2nd day so far. Therefore, another shortwave in the Wed ngt-Thu timeframe with surface low well north across Ontario/Quebec but surface warm front with showers Wed ngt and threat of showers/t-storms Thu with eventual approach of cold front and staying unstable Friday...especially higher terrain in NW flow. Temperatures through the period will be at or below seasonable for daytime highs. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Sunday...Radar shows light rain showers entering the CPV and approaching the PBG and BTV taf sites. Have included vcsh for both sites...but kept conditions at vfr. Otherwise...vis satl shows lots of clearing skies anticipate mostly clear skies...which will allow temps to fall quickly below cross over values at mpv/slk. Thinking fog develops between 05-06z at slk and 06-07z at mpv...with ifr/lifr conditions likely between 07-11z at both sites. Noticing some light winds and bl moisture at mss...with a period of fog/br possible between 08-11z. Have tempo mvfr conditions for this site. Otherwise...vfr prevails with light winds overnight becoming northwest 3 to 7 knots on Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Taber is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.