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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 212329
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moving southward from Quebec may bring an
isolated shower or thunderstorm near the international border
through this evening. Otherwise, looking for dry conditions
overnight and through much of the weekend. Northwest winds
Saturday and Sunday will bring slightly cooler temperatures,
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper
level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring
our next chance for widespread precipitation, with periods of
showers expected Sunday night into Monday across the North
Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 141 PM EDT Friday...Relatively quiet near-term forecast
with a west-northwesterly mid-upper level flow regime in place
across nrn NY and New England. Winds across the region have been
SW-W this afternoon, and downslope warming allowing temps to
climb into the mid 80s across much of the Champlain Valley and
Connecticut Valley this afternoon. There is a weak trough/cold
front across srn Quebec which will settle southward near the
Intl. Border this evening. This sfc feature may provide just
enough low-level convergence/ascent to yield a shower or
thunderstorm (SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg), and have maintained 20%
PoPs across the far nrn counties thru 01Z this eve. Thereafter,
should be a relatively quiet night with weak nw wind shift and
just some patchy nocturnal fog possible in the favored spots
within the nrn Adirondack region and deeper river valleys of
central/ern VT. Overnight lows generally 60-63F, except upr 50s
in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT.

Pleasant conditions Saturday with nwly winds 5-10 mph yielding
slightly cooler high temps (upr 70s - lower 80s). Weak sfc high
pressure builds swd from srn Quebec, keeping conditions quiet
Saturday night with lows mainly in the 50s. Light wind
conditions may yield some additional valley fog 06-12Z Sunday in
the favored valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 431 PM EDT Friday...I`m being a bit more optimistic for Sunday
as shortwave ridging and drier airmass in place will hold off
any shower threat til aft 00z Monday for most of area. In fact,
best lift and moisture advection will be aft Midnight thus
focus of greatest pops. It should be a decent day although
Saturday is the pick of the weekend with highs on Sunday M-U70s
to L80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 431 PM EDT Friday...Northern stream shortwave/trof moving
across the region Monday - Monday night with surface low
tracking along and south of area with showers and can`t rule out
any isold/embeedding t-storms if enough breaks allow for some
heating.

Trof axis and trof shifting east of area on Tuesday with still a
threat of leftover showers in eastern sections but ridging moving in
at all levels for later Tuesday through Wednesday.

However, very similar to the pattern all summer so far...overall NW
cyclonic flow with shortwave energy every 2nd day so far. Therefore,
another shortwave in the Wed ngt-Thu timeframe with surface low well
north across Ontario/Quebec but surface warm front with showers Wed
ngt and threat of showers/t-storms Thu with eventual approach of
cold front and staying unstable Friday...especially higher terrain
in NW flow.

Temperatures through the period will be at or below seasonable for
daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 00Z Sunday...Radar shows light rain showers entering the
CPV and approaching the PBG and BTV taf sites. Have included
vcsh for both sites...but kept conditions at vfr.
Otherwise...vis satl shows lots of clearing skies upstream...so
anticipate mostly clear skies...which will allow temps to fall
quickly below cross over values at mpv/slk. Thinking fog
develops between 05-06z at slk and 06-07z at mpv...with ifr/lifr
conditions likely between 07-11z at both sites. Noticing some
light winds and bl moisture at mss...with a period of fog/br
possible between 08-11z. Have tempo mvfr conditions for this
site. Otherwise...vfr prevails with light winds overnight
becoming northwest 3 to 7 knots on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy FG.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Taber