Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272355 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 755 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 755 PM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING SUN AND STABILIZING LAPSE RATES. ANY LINGERING SHOWER WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF AND PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE TWEAKED SKY AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 16-18C FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORMAL SPOTS. THE WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 252 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS START OUT ON SUNDAY AT 12-18C RESPECTIVELY AND TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY TOPPING OUT MID- WEEK AT 15-22C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S MID- WEEK UNDER PARTIAL TO FULL SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR FOG/BR AT A FEW SITES. SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN VFR DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DISSIPATING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. IFR/LIFR FOG EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME FOG/BR ALSO POSSIBLE AT MSS...BUT DENSITY/DURATION IS UNCERTAIN FOR NOW...SO WILL SHOW 3SM BR. NO FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BTV/PBG/RUT. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT TURN GENERALLY WESTERLY ON FRIDAY FROM 4-7 KNOTS...EXCEPT SE AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SAT - 18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

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