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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 100458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLY
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EDT THURSDAY...CLEARING SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO FORECAST AREA. STILL
LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 60 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOME 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME FOG IN
LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY...AND ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN A
FEW OF THE OTHER FOG PRONE PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVE CUMULUS CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...THEREFORE WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS FOR
TOMORROW...MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN
AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT A MODERATING
TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATTERN WL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
ACTIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS NEXT LONG WAVE
MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK AND MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY...BUT SYSTEM WL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY PUNCH. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS FCST
AND MENTION CHC POPS SUNDAY THRU TUES...WITH BEST CHCS ON MONDAY
INTO TUES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT/ULVL TROF. EARLY
INDICATIONS SHOW INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BTWN 800 TO 1200 J/KG AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASE BTWN 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL WIND MAXIMUM. THIS SETUP
WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR SCENARIO TO CHANGE. TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS.
THICKNESS VALUES AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY FLW MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. ALSO...AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES
WL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC COLD
FRNT...RESULTING IN TEMPS RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR OVERNIGHT MVFR/IFR MIST AT SLK AND RUT.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 23Z SHOWS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
IMPACTED RUT EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. A MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT IN FAR
SOUTHERN VERMONT THAT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE RUT TAF - BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING VCSH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND A HALF.
SFC RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN WITH SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY
BECOMING SKC. QUESTION THEN BECOMES IF ANY MIST OR FOG CAN
DEVELOP...CONTINGENT UPON LLVL INVERSION/DECOUPLING AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW BL WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. BEST SHOT AT THIS HAPPENING APPEARS TO BE SLK UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT...BUT I`VE ALSO OFFERED TEMPO 2SM BR
AT RUT BASED ON CURRENT NARROW T/TD SPREAD AND THAT IT RAINED
THERE TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-9 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE IN PLACE THURSDAY TO PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A
FEW/SCT CUMULUS ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING MIST BURNS OFF. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS 4-7 KTS...THOUGH SOUTHWEST 4-7 KTS AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MPV FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING BTWN 06Z- 11Z. SHOWERS/STORMS
CHCS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO