Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KBTV 161051
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
551 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the
region. A warming trend will also take place beginning today and
continuing through midweek with above normal temperatures
expected. However...attention will turn to the late Tuesday into
early Wednesday time period when mixed precipitation makes its
way up into the region. The precipitation will generally begin
as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain in northern
New York with colder air holding in longer over Vermont for a
bit more snow and sleet before going to rain on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 551 AM EST Monday...Going forecast in good shape. Only
tweak was to temperatures and sky given the sharp difference
across the area with clouds and warmer temperatures west and
relatively clear skies with colder temperatures east.
Otherwise...with high pressure over the area quiet weather is
expected today and tonight. A warm trend will also take place
with highs today in the upper 20s to mid 30s. And it will not be
getting as cold tonight as the past few night with lows in the
mid teens to lower 20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EST Monday...Active weather is expected during
this period...especially late in the day Tuesday through the
morning hours on Wednesday. It will be yet again another mixed
precipitation event. Highs on Tuesday will actually get into the
30s to around 40 in advance of the precipitation. But with dry
air in place wet bulbing will take place and the thermal profile
will change significantly with low level cooling and warming
aloft. At this time its looking like light snow at the onset and
then as warmer air aloft moves into northern New York Tuesday
night they will have the best chance of seeing sleet and some
freezing rain that could result in some light ice accumulations.
Secondary low wants to form along the coast Tuesday night and
this will keep colder air in over the Champlain Valley and
points east. Thus the thermal profile Tuesday night would
support the idea of a bit more snow and sleet with some rain
getting into the Champlain Valley. Freezing rain threat looks
low in Vermont...but with more snow and sleet...better snow
accumulations could result. From Tuesday night through Wednesday
areas from the Green Mountains eastward could see snow and
sleet amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range with around an inch in
the Champlain Valley before changing to rain. Either way another
messy situation is expected before temperatures warm enough for
rain everywhere on Wednesday. Precipitation should also be
exiting the region as temperatures warm well into the 30s
Wednesday afternoon. Only other concern will be strong winds
moving in late Tuesday...especially in the Champlain Valley that
could cause some shadowing effects and limit precipitation.
No headlines at this time...but situation for Tuesday night into
Wednesday will be closely monitored given the mixed
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Monday...The middle to later portions of the
week will generally feature high pressure with very mild
temperatures, variable clouds and mainly dry weather. This idea
is broadly supported by a variety of global ensemble guidance so
forecast confidence remains above average. A weak upper trough
passage Wednesday night/Thursday morning will bring the best
shot at scattered snow/rain showers during the period, otherwise
minimal pops will be offered through Sunday. Mean 925 mb
temperatures generally average from -1 to -3C through Saturday,
then climb slightly by Sunday. Adding a customary +7C to these
values for January yields max temps from the mid 30s to lower
40s through the 4 day period with overnight lows in the 20s to
around 30 in milder valley locales. Of course, any radiative
effects that do develop during overnight periods of partial
clearing could yield higher variability in the overnight lows
than currently shown, but this is not an uncommon occurrence.
Regardless, daily mean departures should average some +8 to +15
deg above normal for this time of year continuing the larger
background trend throughout the winter so far.
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...High pressure is over the North Country
and will remain over the area through the rest of Monday. Mainly
VFR conditions with scattered high clouds expected through the
period. Only exception will be a period of SCT/BKN MVFR cigs
possible at KSLK and to a lesser extent KMSS in the 07-13Z time
frame as lingering lake moisture from Lake Ontario is advected
northward on developing light southerly return flow. These
clouds will be thinning over time so after sunrise should be in
the dissipation process.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and then increase to
10-15 knots out of the south-southwest with the St Lawrence
Valley seeing gusts up to 20 knots.
06Z Tuesday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR with surface high pressure
18Z Tuesday - 00Z Friday...Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR
in widespread precipitation
00z Friday onwards...VFR as high pressure builds into the