Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281155 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 755 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will ridge into the area today. Cloudy skies for most areas will begin the day on Friday, with a trend towards sunny and clear skies by the afternoon and evening. High pressure remains in control through the weekend with dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 745 AM EDT Friday...Still some lingering BR/FG around, should lift by about 9 am or so. Only some high clouds around currently. Previous discussion follows. Plenty of low level moisture around is causing low clouds and/or br/fg for the rest of the overnight hours. Forecast model soundings show a strong subsidence inversion during the pre- dawn hours, and this may take a bit to lift. Clouds will be on the decrease all day with high pressure ridging into the North Country. Going into the overnight, upper level low pressure digs southeastward from the Great Lakes, remains well south of our area. Some mid/high clouds will spread northward into our CWA associated with this feature. Today will be cool with temps maxing out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with cool northerly flow in place. Will again see fog formation overnight with surface ridging continuing and setting us up for a decent radiational cooling night, despite some high clouds possible in our Southern zones. Lows Friday night will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals, mainly 50s. The typically fog prone spots could see some locally dense fog. More surface ridging for Saturday, as well as some upper level ridging will provide mainly sunny skies after morning fog lifts and temps a bit warmer than Fri, generally lower to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 334 AM EDT Friday...The weekend should be quite pleasant as high pressure dominates. We should see temps slowly creeping back up towards normal with partly cloudy to clear skies. Saturday night should allow for optimal radiational cooling. Expect the typical cold locales to drop into the 40s with 50s elsewhere. The radiational cooling should also allow for fog development across the climo favoured river valleys. High pressure and dry conditions will continue as we start the work week. Temps on Monday should be near normal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 334 AM EDT Friday...Tuesday should be quiet as well as a shortwave drops south from Quebec towards the North Country. However that wave and the associated front fall apart before reaching the North Country and other than perhaps some mountain showers or an isolated shower we can expect another nice day with near normal temps. The EC continues to hold on to the idea that high pressure and dry air erodes that short wave and so I trended the forecast away from the GFS. Our chances for showers return by mid week as an upper level low near James Bay brings a cold front through the North Country. At a first look there should be enough instability around to see some showers with embedded thunderstorms with a PWAT surge Wednesday into Thursday. Temps will be near normal until that front clears. Based on the 00z suite the front should pass through Wednesday evening which points to a cooler Thursday but time will tell on which day next week ends up being below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 12z Saturday...Lower ceilings and some br still lingering will lift this morning. Conditions will improve after 13z. Expect fog to form again tonight, especially in the typically fog prone spots. Light and variable winds will become north-northwest after 13Z at 5-10 knots. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Neiles

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