Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 062342 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 642 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. A FEW OTHER WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, AND ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 642 PM EST FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 316 PM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK AS CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WHILE THE LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, FEEL THIS INITIAL SURGE OF WILL MOSTLY GO TOWARDS SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. FEEL THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW COMES TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, MORE ON THAT BELOW. AS FOR TEMPS TONIGHT, WITH THE TIMING OF CLOUDS THICKENING LATE, EXPECT LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND MORE TOWARDS CLIMO-TIMO NEAR SUNRISE IN THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WE`LL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO, EXCEPT A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BEST CHANCE IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES SATURDAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INCREASED LOW/MID- LEVEL MOISTURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AND WANE AFTER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF BEST MID- LEVEL VORTICITY. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, VERY LITTLE CHANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING HIGHLIGHTING LIMITED MOISTURE LEADING TO GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 3" OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. GOING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THOUGH WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS SUNDAY PRETTY CLOSE TO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 25-35F, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 7-17F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS...JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND MILDER TEMPS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RISK OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDEST TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER READINGS LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...INITALLY VFR BUT WITH GRADUAL LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT A TREND TO VFR/MVFR (WITH DEVELOPING INTERVALS IFR LATER SATURDAY). INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT UPSTREAM METARS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL JUST GO TO LOWERING CEILINGS. I`VE THEREFORE OPTED TO SLOW START TIME OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AT MSS AND SLK UNTIL THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME, WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE. PER OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE, IT DOESN`T APPEAR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY SNOW DEVELOPS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER MANITOBA) MOVES IN LATER SATURDAY. I STARTED TO TREND VISIBILITIES DOWNWARD AFTER 19Z AT MSS AND SLK, BUT MAINTAINED VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT MSS AND AT SLK. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. 06Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

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