Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030801 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 357 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DUE WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG FORMED AS SKIES CLEARED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH READINGS AT SUNRISE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 12C-13C...AND WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 357 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION... ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. WITH THURSDAY 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 15C-17C... EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM 500MB TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AREAS LATE. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA INTO FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY LIMITED WITH PROJECTED CAPE VALUES ONLY 300 TO 600 J/KG...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 357 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY EVENING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY SATURDAY MORNING CLEARING SKIES WILL DEVELOP UNDER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION AND SHOULD DROP TEMPS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THAT FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN MPV THIS EVENING. THE OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY STAY AS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVEN`T CLOSED TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR FOG BANK OVER THE BTV AREA AND NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT RUT OR PBG. THE MVFR STRATUS DECK IN RUTLAND HAS GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND ALL SITES CURRENTLY UNAFFECTED BY FOG ARE REPORTING CLEAR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PBG WHERE A NARROW RIBBON OF CLOUDS HAS A CEILING AT 4000 FT. FOR THE FOG SITES, SLK/MSS/MPV IFR TO LIFR WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE FOG SETTING IN AT MPV BETWEEN 07-09Z. ANTICIPATE THE FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR DEVELOPING. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI

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