Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292354 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 754 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will end from west to east this evening...but any dry periods will be short lived. The threat for more showers and a few thunderstorms will exist Tuesday afternoon and evening and an even greater likelihood of showers and storms will exist on Wednesday. Our next best chance for dry weather will not come until Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 754 PM EDT Monday...Some breaks in the clouds over northern New York continues to spread eastward. Expect most areas to see a brief break in overcast overnight. Winds generally settling out of the south at 5-10kts overnight. Could see isolated areas of fog development towards the morning hours due to the moist low levels and precip experienced earlier today. Lows will generally range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Convective threat will exist over the area on Tuesday...but parameters not really coming together for more organized convection. There may be some showers over northern New York in the morning...which may affect the development of instability in this area...but deep layer shear will be increasing over this area. Thus instability gradient likely to form more over Vermont where deep layer shear will be weaker. Nevertheless...looking at increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon...especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. Highs will generally be in the 60s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 352 PM EDT Monday...For the first half of Tuesday night we`ll likely still be dealing with some scattered convection across eastern portions of the forecast area, but as instability lessens with the loss of insolational heating and shortwave energy aloft shifts east, the trend will be towards a quieter overnight. Despite some clearing and whatever rainfall we get Tuesday, the low-level flow overnight should be strong enough to preclude any widespread fog development though can`t rule it out in the deeper hollows that typically decouple no matter what the flow is. Lows will be mild ranging through the 50s. Another round of convection is expected Wednesday as well, with most likely more areal coverage than Tuesday. SBCAPE`s are in the 500- 1000 J/kg range, but as the activity initiates over the Adirondacks around the noon hours, the best deep layer shear is exiting to our east. So while I`ve highlighted fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms, none are anticipated to become severe but could produce some 30+ mph winds with some locally moderate rainfall through the evening hours before activity subsides. Temps Wednesday and Wednesday night should be right around normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 352 PM EDT Monday...Really no change from the previous forecast thinking as the pattern for the extended period hasn`t changed in days, largely controlled dominated by an upper level low that is blocked by a strong northern Atlantic low pressure system. While every day has a chance for showers, the best chance looks to be Friday, with potentially drier conditions for the weekend, but timing individual shortwaves rounding the base of the trough to our north is very difficult so many days out. Temps through the period should be very seasonal with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 00Z Wednesday....Most terminals experiencing MVFR cigs, but a break in clouds is making its way eastward from western and central NY this evening. Expect this break to be brief as prevalent low level moisture keeps mix of MVFR and VFR cigs over the North Country overnight. VFR conditions expected at KMSS, KPBG, KBTV after 04Z. KSLK will experience a brief period of VFR cigs before MVFR/IFR fog develops for the early morning hours. KRUT expecting MVFR conditions most of tonight, but increasing gap winds may help lower level moisture to mix resulting in cigs lifting to VFR. Meanwhile, KMPV may see some fog development with MVFR/IFR conditions expected to persist. Some showers may move across northern New York and western Vermont after 12z...but majority of any precipitation will come after 18z. Embedded thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. Within showers and thunderstorms, expect MVFR conditions and a brief period of IFR. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. South winds have dipped into the 10 to 20 knot range late this afternoon...but once the precipitation ends this evening winds should increase back up into the 15 to 25 knot range. The winds will increase even further into the 20 to 30 knot range on Tuesday. Winds of this magnitude will create rather choppy conditions on the lake...especially on Tuesday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/KGM SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...KGM MARINE...Evenson

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