Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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009 FXUS61 KBTV 250756 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 356 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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After some early morning fog expect plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A shower or two may pop up along the spine of the Green Mountains this afternoon. The above normal temperatures will continue right through the middle of the week as high pressure remains over the area. Expect dry weather on Tuesday but as a trough of low pressure moves into the region late Wednesday through Thursday morning the chances for showers will increase...especially near the Canadian Border.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 356 AM EDT Monday...Little change in temperatures at 925/850 millibars from yesterday to today and thus see no reason why we see high temperatures very similar to yesterday...mid 80s to lower 90s...which will break more records. Dew points well into the 60s will push heat index values into the lower 90s. Should see plenty of sunshine once again as ridging aloft exists. Hard to ignore the BTV4 showing on consecutive runs the potential for some isolated convection over the Green Mountains this afternoon. Plenty of instability and the mountains of course are a natural source of lift. Cap overall should hold...but cannot rule out a couple can break through the cap. Flow aloft is weak so any showers would not be able to move off the terrain...thus having little impact overall. Have included a slight chance of showers for parts of the Green Mountains. Any showers quickly come to an end tonight and high dew points will keep overnight lows above normal and should see fog developing with clear skies and light winds. On Tuesday once again little change in 925/850 millibar temperatures and will continue to go with more record breaking temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Will be interesting if here at BTV we can actually hit three straight days of 90 degrees...something that never occurred this summer.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...The previous forecast remains on track for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models are in fairly good agreement. The upper level ridge will remain over the region. With no change in airmass, will hold onto max temps in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. This also pushes heat index values once again into the 90-94 degree range. While these temps are considered sub advisory(<95 F), they are not to be taken lightly especially given the time of year. Based on the forecast and current records, its expected that records will fall at all sites by 3-5 degrees. Prolonged exposure outside combined with strenuous activity can lead to heat related injuries. Please take caution, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks during any outdoor activities. This will be the third consecutive day with 90+ degree heat indexes during the afternoon. With upper 80`s to low 90`s temps, the overnight lows wont fall that much. Expect lows each night in the upper 50s to low 60s which is 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Sunday...Model solutions begin to diverge with the handling of timing, and to some extent placement, of the mid level shortwaves and attendant cold front. Still looks like the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into Wednesday as a low pressure system begins to finally track towards the North Country from the Great Lakes. With the flow aloft not turning zonal until mid day Wednesday anticipate the frontal system moving through slower than the models suggest. I`ve removed pops Wednesday morning. Will still carry chance pops Wednesday afternoon but have removed mention of thunder. Any afternoon activity is expected to be pre-frontal and on the weaker side with the cold front not expected to move through until Wednesday night. A trailing shortwave will move across the region the end of the week. For now have gone with slight-low chance pops Friday into Saturday due to timing uncertainties. The cold front will usher in much cooler and more seasonal temperatures for the end of the work week through the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Expect patchy fog to develop at most locations early this morning with at least MVFR visibilities... but KSLK...KMPV...KPBG...and KMSS will see IFR to VLIFR conditions through about 14z due to low clouds and fog. After 14z all areas will be VFR with little in the way of cloud cover. Winds will be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sunday Sep 24 to Wednesday Sep 27 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 9/27 83 / 1920 82 / 2003 80 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...NRR LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...Evenson CLIMATE...BTV

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