Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270219 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ATTENTION IS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BE 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S...COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...QUIET AVIATION WEATHER AND VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS (<10 KNOTS) GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...TURBULENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BRIEF IFR OR LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. BROAD SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI

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