Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240541 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 141 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Other than areas of fog this morning it looks like we will have a break from the storms today with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures generally in the 80s. The dry weather will be short lived as the threat for more showers and thunderstorms returns Monday afternoon and evening. And as has been the case with the last couple of events...some of the storms could be strong to severe. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1252 AM EDT Sunday...Isolated showers have come to an end and should be dry the rest of the night. Still plenty of low level moisture and with clear skies and light winds have mentioned fog for the entire area with dense fog in the favored locations. .Sunday...High pressure at all levels will allow plenty of sun with 850mb temps 15-16C and 925mb of 18-19c suggest mid 80s and much of guidance has low 80s...thus nudged up deg/two. .Sunday night...Upper Ridge dampens and passes FA with some embedded energy, return flow aloft and deep moisture thus chance of showers and possible elevated convection toward Monday morning which will complicate matters for Monday.under "Marginal Risk" of severe thunderstorms and we are in good agreement. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Rather busy with current severe weather...thus borrowing from previous shift with some edits here and there. The end result...looks more uncertain than the last few days here. For days, guidance has been indicating unsettled conditions (eg: showers and t-storms) to be possible. Still, things are not totally clear. What I do expect is that a fairly robust shortwave will be approaching the region late in the day. This will sync up daytime heating with the best dynamics aloft. Models do indicate surface based instability of probably 1000-1500 J/kg (NAM as typical is higher) due to a warmer and more humid airmass getting into place. Just how much instability we achieve will be related to how much sun we see. 925mb temperatures are expected to become very warm -perhaps 23 to 25C. Under perfect atmospheric mixing conditions, this would result in temperatures at the valley floor pushing into the mid 90s! However, it appears we`ll have a good amount of clouds to restrict heating to a degree. Though we should still easily reach the mid 80s. The 0-6km bulk shear values are in the marginal level for getting storms to become on the strong side. SPC does have the region in a marginal risk, but they also have some concerns about the mix of ingredients lining up perfectly to develop severe t- storms. Evaluation of various forecast sounding for Monday have some "goofiness" (thats a technical term, by the way) showing in the profiles. Not sure if that is due to convection within the models, or if it`s a sign that despite the very warm air aloft, we`ll have some inversion in place to restrict mixing, which in turn means restricted convection. At this point, will play the middle ground, and keep PoPs in the 40-55% range and see how future guidance trends. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Decent agreement with the 00z and 12z suites of models, and much of the week should be relatively quiet, but feature more or less typical summer weather. Most of the week we`ll see temperatures running a bit above normal. Looks sunny and warm for both Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF start to advect in some moisture for Thursday, along with having a little more troughiness develop and perhaps a weak front sliding down from Quebec. Thus it appears we`ll see some showers and t-storms around. At this point, they appear to be of the garden variety as I don`t see strong dynamics in place. Kept with a model blend and painted in 30-40% PoPs. More uncertain on Friday and Saturday with general troughiness dropping into somewhat humid airmass for threat of showers and thunderstorms friday and saturday but confidence is lower than mid weeks forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06z Monday...Areas of fog and low clouds are expected through 14z which will cause LIFR and VLIFR conditions. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the period with little in the way of cloud cover expected. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday... VFR conditions through much of the period. Showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night could be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail and ceilings/visibilities lowering into the MVFR and IFR categories with any of the showers and storms. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/SLW SHORT TERM...Nash/SLW LONG TERM...Nash/SLW AVIATION...Evenson

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