Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 240541
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016
Other than areas of fog this morning it looks like we will have a
break from the storms today with plenty of sunshine and high
temperatures generally in the 80s. The dry weather will be short
lived as the threat for more showers and thunderstorms returns
Monday afternoon and evening. And as has been the case with the
last couple of events...some of the storms could be strong to
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1252 AM EDT Sunday...Isolated showers have come to an end
and should be dry the rest of the night. Still plenty of low level
moisture and with clear skies and light winds have mentioned fog
for the entire area with dense fog in the favored locations.
.Sunday...High pressure at all levels will allow plenty of sun with
850mb temps 15-16C and 925mb of 18-19c suggest mid 80s and much of
guidance has low 80s...thus nudged up deg/two.
.Sunday night...Upper Ridge dampens and passes FA with some embedded
energy, return flow aloft and deep moisture thus chance of showers
and possible elevated convection toward Monday morning which will
complicate matters for Monday.under "Marginal Risk" of severe
thunderstorms and we are in good agreement.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Rather busy with current severe
weather...thus borrowing from previous shift with some edits here
and there. The end result...looks more uncertain than the last few
For days, guidance has been indicating unsettled conditions (eg:
showers and t-storms) to be possible. Still, things are not totally
clear. What I do expect is that a fairly robust shortwave will be
approaching the region late in the day. This will sync up daytime
heating with the best dynamics aloft. Models do indicate surface
based instability of probably 1000-1500 J/kg (NAM as typical is
higher) due to a warmer and more humid airmass getting into place.
Just how much instability we achieve will be related to how much sun
we see. 925mb temperatures are expected to become very warm -perhaps
23 to 25C. Under perfect atmospheric mixing conditions, this would
result in temperatures at the valley floor pushing into the mid 90s!
However, it appears we`ll have a good amount of clouds to restrict
heating to a degree. Though we should still easily reach the mid
80s. The 0-6km bulk shear values are in the marginal level for
getting storms to become on the strong side. SPC does have the
region in a marginal risk, but they also have some concerns about
the mix of ingredients lining up perfectly to develop severe t-
storms. Evaluation of various forecast sounding for Monday have some
"goofiness" (thats a technical term, by the way) showing in the
profiles. Not sure if that is due to convection within the models,
or if it`s a sign that despite the very warm air aloft, we`ll have
some inversion in place to restrict mixing, which in turn means
restricted convection. At this point, will play the middle ground,
and keep PoPs in the 40-55% range and see how future guidance
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Decent agreement with the 00z and
12z suites of models, and much of the week should be relatively
quiet, but feature more or less typical summer weather. Most of
the week we`ll see temperatures running a bit above normal. Looks
sunny and warm for both Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF start
to advect in some moisture for Thursday, along with having a
little more troughiness develop and perhaps a weak front sliding
down from Quebec. Thus it appears we`ll see some showers and
t-storms around. At this point, they appear to be of the garden
variety as I don`t see strong dynamics in place. Kept with a model
blend and painted in 30-40% PoPs.
More uncertain on Friday and Saturday with general troughiness
dropping into somewhat humid airmass for threat of showers and
thunderstorms friday and saturday but confidence is lower than mid
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06z Monday...Areas of fog and low clouds are expected
through 14z which will cause LIFR and VLIFR conditions.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the
period with little in the way of cloud cover expected. Winds will
generally be under 10 knots through the period.
Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday...
VFR conditions through much of the period. Showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night could be strong to severe
with gusty winds and hail and ceilings/visibilities lowering into
the MVFR and IFR categories with any of the showers and storms.