Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010755 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AS MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS OUR AREA...COURTESY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. IN MANY RESPECTS TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH VARIABLE/TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER THINNING THROUGH THE DAY NORTH AND WEST...AND COOLER/CLOUDIER EAST/SOUTH WITH MOIST MARITIME-MODIFIED AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. DIFFERENCES DO EXIST HOWEVER...MOST NOTABLY IN THE FORM OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE INROADS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VT COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY AND BASED OFF LATEST MODEL BLENDED QPF PROGS HAVE RAISED POPS UPWARD CONSIDERABLY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UPON A QUICK LOOK AT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AT 300 AM. FURTHER NORTH A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST SUCH THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTY LINE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF NON-BIAS-CORRECTED DATA...OFFERING VALUES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS DACKS/ERN VT...AND MILDEST CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH THE 70F MARK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS UPPER H5 LOW EXITS OFFSHORE TOWARD THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...WE`LL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER OUR GRUNGY/MOIST AIRMASS WITH VERY LIGHT BL FLOW AND NO REAL MECHANISM (WIND OR OTHERWISE) TO AID IN SCOURING VARIABLE/LOW CLOUD COVER OUT OF OUR REGION. THUS EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT TO TONIGHT...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS WE LIKE TO SAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. THEREAFTER (THU/FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVERALL CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MID AND UPPER FLOW SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. PBL DRYING PROCESSES FINALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL-AVERAGED 18Z 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY FALL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 65 TO 75 RANGE ON BOTH DAYS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED FROM PRIOR DAYS. GLOBAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTEND A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING FROM MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO ONE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEGATIVE AO TELECONNECTION PATTERN. AFTER A SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT/SAT NIGHT...EXPECT A RETURN TO AT OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. POTENT 500 MB CYCLONE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ACCOMPANYING WELL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SAT/SAT NIGHT. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS. 00Z/01 GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS FROPA COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THE ECMWF. SHAPING UP TO BE A BREEZY FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE MARKEDLY /BY 12Z SATURDAY 850 MB WINDS NEAR 60 KTS PER THE GFS/. COULD SEE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN SPOTS ON SAT IF BETTER MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE. STRONG DYNAMICS/FRONTAL FORCING ALSO OFFERS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A FINE LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST...I`VE SHOWN HIGH LIKELY POPS SAT FOR NORTHERN NY AND SPREADING INTO VT SAT AFTN/EVE. HIGHS SATURDAY UNLIKELY TO CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN UPPER 50S/MID-60S UNDER OVERCAST. THERMAL PROFILES COOL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT /925 MB TEMPS +3 TO +5C BY 12Z SUN/ WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN VT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS (PRIMARILY FROM LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS). HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL - GENERALLY IN THE 50S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IN THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN POPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALLOWS TEMPS TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER HIGHLY VARIABLE 06Z TAF FORECAST. FORECAST BASIS IS LARGELY EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CEILING/VISBY OBS GIVEN CONTINUED POOR GUIDANCE. OVERALL SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS IFR STRATUS DRAINING DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND NOW THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON NORTHEAST/NORTH FLOW...WHILE MARINE STRATUS LAYER IS MAINTAINED AT MPV AND RUT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAFS OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY FROM CEILINGS...THOUGH LIFR/VLIFR FOG LIKELY AT SLK. HAVE HINTED AT MIST WITH 2-6SM AT A FEW SITES GIVEN MOIST LOW- LEVELS. WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS TAF SITES BUT GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE (NORTHEAST 10-12 KTS AT MSS AND SOUTHEAST 6-9 KTS THE EXCEPTIONS). FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILING TRENDS UNTIL ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT. BUFKIT PROGS INDICATE THIS BY AROUND 15-17Z AND SO I`VE SHOWN SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS BY THAT POINT. HOWEVER AS SFC LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER IN THE DAY...A RETURN FLOW OF EASTERLY MARITIME MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING ONCE AGAIN BY EVENING. DEFINITELY SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW CEILINGS GET BUT EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS AT RUT AND MPV. WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT TENDING TO BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY/SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-15Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...LOCONTO/SISSON

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