Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310858 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY. WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY, KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026- 027-029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028- 035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/NEILES

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