Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241736 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL JUST AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER TWO DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCALES. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75 TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850 TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58. BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77 TO 84. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A +PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK) RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD SLOWER. THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO -6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PRODUCING 30-35 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSSED MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST A FEW HOURS. BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV AND/OR SLK. 00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...NASH

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