Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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687 FXUS61 KBTV 301142 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low humidity levels, partly to mostly sunny skies, and pleasantly warm temperatures will characterize Saturday, as Canadian high pressure controls our weather through tonight. Thereafter, a slow moving upper level disturbance and associated rich moisture moving out of the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain showers Sunday into Monday, possible lingering into early Tuesday. High temperatures will reach the low 80s today, but then generally in the low to mid 70s for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame with abundant cloudiness. High pressure returns Wednesday through Friday with warmer and more humid conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 739 AM EDT Saturday...Tranquil and pleasant weather conditions through the near-term period. Dry northerly low-level airstream continues east of 925mb anticyclone centered across swrn Quebec. This will continue to provide the North Country with relatively low humidity (2-m dewpoints in the 50s) today. Early AM valley fog central/ern VT will dissipate by 13Z. Otherwise, just looking at mid-upper level clouds streaming enewd ahead of Ohio Valley trough, which will provide filtered sun at times, especially over the srn half of the forecast area. With 850mb temps of +11C to +13C at 21Z per 00Z GFS, looking for highs generally in the upr 70s to lower 80s. 10-meter winds 14-22Z generally N 5-9 mph, except locally NE across far nrn NY. PoPs NIL. Continued quiet tonight, though will see some mid level clouds (8-10 KFT) increasing from SW-NE after midnight as slow-moving 500mb trough shifts newd from OH into PA/wrn NY. Included slight chance of showers s-central VT toward 12Z Sunday, but most likely scenario is that associated shower activity remains south of the entire forecast area until during the day Sunday. Overnight lows mid-upr 50s, except locally around 60F s-central VT valleys where clouds inhibit radiative cooling. Some patchy valley fog is possible nrn valleys after 06Z Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM EDT Saturday...The 00z suite of guidance remains consistent with the general idea of a broad slow moving upper level trough crossing the Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon into the North Country by late Monday. The surface low that develops will be south of the forecast area but guidance is still quite disparate between solutions. Where the surface low sets up and the convergence boundary develops will have dramatic effects on the area that ends up being the bulls eye for precip. The GFS and GEM models have a 2-3 inch bulls eye along the Saint Lawrence river where as the ECMWF has the 3 inch bulls eye over the MA/CT/NY border, and the NAM has a 2 inch hot spot over near Binghamton NY. So in essence, its still a bit difficult to pin point where the heaviest rain will fall. So I went with a consensus blend of 50% new guidance and 50% previous forecast to trend the QPF towards the latest guidance. I ended up with a broad 1-2inch swath of precip across much of the area from Sunday afternoon into Monday. With that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall, there will be some ponding of water in low lying areas and in areas of poor drainage. Given the lack of continuity in location, I dont have confidence in any sort of flood hazards especially due to the potential for much of the precip to fall over areas in drought conditions. Temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s and with dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60, instability isn`t great. As such I continued the idea of mainly rain showers with an isolated chance of thunder across the area. Overnight lows will be warmer with the rainfall but are still expected to drop into the mid 60s. With precip still falling and overcast skies expected, Monday should be below normal with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 404 AM EDT Saturday...Early in the morning Tuesday there may be a few lingering wrap around rain showers as the trough swings through. Northerly to northwesterly winds should keep much of the precip isolated to higher terrain locations. Then by mid week a ridge builds in and heights rise. 925mb temps warm throughout and by Thursday they are in the 24-26C range based on a warm GFS solution. That may be a tad overdone but even so thats supportive of max temps Thursday and Friday into the lower to mid 90s. With that trend continuing from both the previous 00z and 12z forecasts I continued to trend warmer in the extended by bumping up our locally produced "Superblend" of models to show max temps each day in the upper 80s to near 90 in the CT river valley. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...Localized LIFR fog MPV thru 13Z Sat, then sct-bkn200-250 with light N-NE winds daylight hrs areawide. Continued VFR tonight with increasing mid level clouds (bkn- ovc080-100) mainly after 06Z Sunday. Some chance of localized early AM fog SLK/MPV once again 06-12Z Sunday, but advancing clouds should limit fog extent/duration. Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday... 12z Sunday-00z Tuesday: Mainly VFR early Sunday, but then intervals of MVFR in shower activity Sunday afternoon through Monday with slow moving upper trough. 00Z Tuesday through Wednesday: Upper trough brings lingering showers Monday night into early Tuesday with periods of MVFR and brief IFR possible. Then clearing with VFR conditions as high pressure returns Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. May see areas of nocturnal fog 06-12Z Wednesday SLK/MPV with localized LIFR conditions.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos

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