Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011144 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 644 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide the North Country with unsettled weather through the end of the week, and into the first half of the weekend. Widespread rains early this morning will become more terrain focused heading into this afternoon, while transitioning to snow above 1500 feet. Terrain focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday as well, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 638 AM EST Thursday...Well advertised deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to influence the North Country`s weather through the next 24 hours as an occluded front pushes through the region. Widespread frontal rains and gusty southeasterly winds earlier this morning have shifted east of the area with some lingering scattered showers currently across eastern Vermont. As we head into the late morning to early afternoon hours, precipitation will increase again in areal coverage this afternoon but becoming more terrain focused across the Adirondacks and northern Greens. Winds will shift to the west/southwest, and be fairly gusty up to 25 mph in spots, but not as strong as last night. Temps aloft begin to fall back below freezing by the afternoon as well, with a transition to snow expected above 2000 feet. At the surface, temps go just about no where from current readings across northern New York, with perhaps a few degrees higher across eastern Vermont. This results in highs for the day generally ranging through the 40s. For tonight, terrain focused precipitation continues with possible a brief window if lighter precipitation possible around midnight or so as deep layer moisture shifts briefly north of the region. Overall, chances for rain/snow showers persist across elevations above 1500 feet, with cloudy skies continuing hold temps in the 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM EST Thursday...By Friday into Saturday the large- scale upper low/cyclonic gyre will slowly translate east across southern Quebec and into the maritimes by late in the period. Background synoptic flow will transition from west/southwesterly to northwesterly over time and with ample low to mid level moisture scattered to numerous orographically-enhanced rain and snow shower activity looks likely. Highest coverage should occur on Friday with passage of the primary thermal trough with coverage slowly waning on Saturday. With abundant cloud cover narrower than normal diurnal temperature swings are expected with highs in the 40s on Friday cooling to the 30s on Saturday. Lows Friday night ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 AM EST Thursday...Any lingering scattered rain/snow shower activity then comes to an end Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will set the stage for fair and dry conditions on Sunday with seasonably cool highs in the 30s. By Monday into Tuesday of next week sensible conditions shouldn`t be all that bad. A dampening mid-level trough will pass through the region on Monday with just an outside chance of a few rain or snow showers and some clouds, otherwise dry weather should prevail with at least some partial sunshine expected. Temperatures again within a few degrees of seasonal early December norms. Looking further out into later next week medium range solutions continue to show a general re-amplification of the flow across the lower 48 as a pronounced early-season arctic surge pushes southward into the Rockies and northern high plains. This will eventually set the stage for cyclogenesis across the central plains which will track northeastward over time. Rather significant differences remain however on where this will occur with the operational GFS remaining on the more progressive side of the guidance. For now have generally offered a gradual increase in pops/clouds from Wednesday onward as threat of rain/snow shower activity returns with initial warm thermal advection. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 12Z Friday...Overall flight categories through the next 24 hours will be a mix of VFR and MVFR mainly due to ceilings. Widespread showers have shifted east of the area this morning, but additional rain/snow showers are expected this afternoon possibly lowering vsby to MVFR at times. Only exception to this will be KSLK where vsby will lower to IFR in snow showers after 18z. Winds remain gusty out of the southwest today, prevailing 10-15kts gusting to 20-25kts. Outlook 12Z Friday through Monday... 12Z Friday through 18Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers. 18Z Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff

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