Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261917 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 317 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION INTO CANADA...ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1222 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING FORECASTED VALLEY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 432 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY BUT WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS 30-40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN OF GREATER THAN 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH TO JUST LIGHT SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THURSDAY TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 050-080 DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BRINGING A DECK OF VFR LOW CLOUDS. THERES A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z, OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL SUNRISE. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 10Z-16Z, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z. SW TO S WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KPBG/KMSS AND KSLK UP TO 28KTS. KBTV MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT GUSTS SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS, PICKING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 7-15KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR TAF SITES LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MIDDAY. 00Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 18Z ONWARD...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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