Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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189 FXUS61 KBTV 220652 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Expect a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry weather today and Monday as high pressure remains over the area. Eventually a large upper level trough of low pressure will start to approach the area Monday night and then move across the North Country Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result...clouds and precipitation chances will be increasing with fairly widespread rain expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 252 AM EDT Sunday...Expecting only high level clouds across the area today which should result in mostly sunny skies. Low level temperatures...925/850 mb...will be a little warmer than yesterday and thus looking at highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s...which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Looking at another night tonight of wide ranging temperatures with lows anywhere from the upper 30s in the mountains to mid 50s in the larger valleys...and 40s everywhere else. Should start to see a little better chance for fog over eastern Vermont. On Monday...mid and high level moisture will start to be a little thicker and this should keep highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s...which is still well above normal. Not looking for any precipitation during the day...but lower level moisture should start working into parts of eastern Vermont as the day progresses.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Saturday...Upper level ridge remains over the region for one more day on Monday. Will just see some high clouds over the area for Monday with dry weather continuing. Temperatures will once again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday night a cold front will approach the area as a low lifts through the Great Lakes region. Rain should hold off till early Tuesday morning, with bulk of rain moving in after 12z. Temperatures will be warm Monday night with clouds and precipitation moving into the area, generally mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 445 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet and windy, followed by a brief cool down for the end of the week. Still some notable differences in model data with respect to the system for Tue and Wed, timing, speed of the trof development and short waves moving through it. Deep moist southerly flow will be in place across the North country, and winds will be picking up Tue ahead and along the frontal passage. Low pressure will move up through the eastern Great Lakes and west of the region on Tue with a cold front moving slowly eastward through the region through Tuesday night providing the main lift for precipitation. Current thought is that rainfall will range from around a quarter of an inch to about an inch and a half with the highest totals over Vermont. Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof and cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability showers around into Thu. Looking at a continuation of much above normal temperatures Tue in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a bit cooler Wed and a bit more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even to normal despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period with only high level clouds expected. Winds will generally be less than 10 knots. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG over easter Vermont. Monday: VFR. Patchy FG. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely RA. Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson EQUIPMENT...BTV

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