Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will provide mainly clear and quiet weather tonight with seasonably cool temperatures expected. Moisture pivoting north and west around departing offshore low pressure will bring a renewed threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and early evening, mainly across Vermont. Thereafter, the first prolonged stetch of summerlike weather will build into the region for the remainder of the week and into the Memorial Day weekend with warm and increasingly humid conditions. While much of the period will be dry, there will be a daily threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will provide mainly clear skies and light winds to the region again tonight. While there is an outside chance of some patchy mist or fog in favored areas once again, deep drying that has occurred today should limit the overall coverage across the area. Minimum temperatures a blend of of MOS-based and bias-corrected consensus data offering values generally from the mid 40s to lower 50s with a few spot readings around 40 in colder northern mountain hollows. On Tuesday short-term models continue to show good consistency showing a filling upper low will drift northeasterly along the northeastern seaboard through the day. While the system is essentially equivalent barotropic, weak deformation/moisture band rotating into our region on the system`s northwestern periphery should interact with some marginal instability and low level convergence to spark scattered showers and a few storms, mainly from the Champlain Valley east. Here solid chance to low-end likely pops (40-60%) will be maintained. Further west, a mainly dry and sunnier day is expected as this area will be removed from spoke of deeper moisture and convergence. High temperatures will be similar to today from the northern Champlain Valley west into northern New York (upper 70s to lower 80s) with slightly cooler readings (70s) further east where coverage of afternoon clouds and showers will be greater.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Upper low off the eastern tip of Long Island Tuesday morning will move northeast and reach eastern Maine by Wednesday morning. This track should keep the bulk of precipitation out of our area with a noticeable gradient of precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at dry conditions for the Saint Lawrence Valley...a slight chance for the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley...and chance for the southern and eastern sections of Vermont. Can`t rule out the possibility of a thunderstorm either. Much of this is already in the forecast and have continued the idea. Showers taper off Tuesday night as upper low moves well east of the area...but a shortwave trough moves in from the west on Wednesday and thus looking at another chance of showers for all areas along with a slight chance for a thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures will be the rule through the extended forecast Thursday through Sunday. In fact...925 mb temperatures get a little above +20C which suggests highs well into the 80s. West to southwest flow aloft will develop and thus higher dew points are expected. With the increased moisture and clouds/convection expected through the weekend...high temperatures may be tempered just a bit Nevertheless will indicate upper 70s to mid 80s for the weekend. Instability will also exist and thus looking at the potential for some showers and thunderstorms through much of the extended. Some of it will be diurnally driven...thus not looking at any particular days being a washout...but a threat for convection will exist most days. && .AVIATION /19Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds variable less than 10 kts through 00Z, then trending light thereafter. After 15Z Tuesday, increasing moisture from the east/south will bring sct/bkn VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL range with an increasing threat of a shower/isolated storm, especially at KMPV/KRUT terminals. Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday... 18z Tue - 00z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon/early evening showers and/or isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity generally scattered in nature with long periods of VFR/dry weather. Brief gusty winds and/or MVFR visibilities possible with any heavier activity. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG

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