Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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024 FXUS61 KBTV 050718 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MODERATING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 159 AM EDT THURSDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THOUGH DID OPT TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION CHARACTER TO DRIZZLE BASED ON LACK OF ANY REAL DYNAMICAL FORCING OVER THE AREA, BUT AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR TODAY...AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DIGS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS. EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +11C RANGE. THAT PUTS THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC PIVOTS, THEN SHEARS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOME DISPARITY REMAINS AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FEEL ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FEATURE. BY SATURDAY A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT AGAIN DYNAMICS AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO 20-40 POPS LOOK IN ORDER WITH LARGE STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME INDICATION THAT LOWER END MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AS WELL, WITH LATEST SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER PROGS IN THE 5-10 PCT RANGE. GIVEN THESE VALUES ARE QUITE LOW WILL OPT TO OMIT ANY REFERENCE TO THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE SIGNAL REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS TOMORROW WE MAY CONSIDER INCLUDING THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 70 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FILTERED SUN EXIST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOST ACTIVE 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN OCCURS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SHARPLY SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THUS A CONTINUATION OF HIGH POPS (60-70 PCT) WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER, SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY LATER SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY OF MIDWEST ORIGIN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GENERALLY VFR AT KMSS/KSLK, MVFR AND KBTV/KRUT AND IFR AT KPBG/KMPV UNDER LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 12Z, NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRY OUT SO THE TREND WILL SLOWLY BE TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE AFTER 21Z. ADDITIONALLY, WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO MENTION VCSH AND MAINLY AT KRUT AND KMPV. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT: MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CIGS. 00Z SAT - 06Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 06Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR. 06Z MON - 00Z TUE: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...LAHIFF

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