Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 292340 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 740 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAME BAY REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 732 PM EDT TUESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT. DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 04-12Z. BEST POTENTIAL IS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW AT 5-8MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 50S...EXCEPT MID-UPR 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VERMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RESULTS IN AN ACTIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...BUT PATTERN SUPPORTS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TROF DIGS DEEPER ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...THEN BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OUR CWA WOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AND TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC AT NIGHT. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU THE PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS MAINLY BTWN 10-12C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S WARMER VALLEYS. LOWS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...BUT MAINLY 50S MTNS TO L/M 60S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING. AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG AT SLK/MPV AND ASSOCIATED LIFR CONDITIONS. THINKING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 06Z TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE AREAS WL DROP BLW THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPS...WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL WL RESULT IN FOG. HAVE MENTION VIS 1/2SM WITH CIGS OVC AT 100 FEET AT BOTH MPV/SLK. THINKING SOME WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD IMPACT BTV...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE AIRPORT...ESPECIALLY IF A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLW CAN DEVELOP...PER LOCAL BTV SOLUTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNTS AT 200 FEET AGL AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AT RUTLAND OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...FOG LIFTS BTWN 12-13Z ON WEDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE WEDS AND THURS AFTNS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL...BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.