Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241739 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 139 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS" SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS. SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP INTO THE CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW. MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS (50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS. THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT. TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA. THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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