Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192026 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 326 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES. NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS. WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10 MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN SPOTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR. 00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS

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