Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270805 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 405 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1258 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY PARAMETERS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. DRY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A BIT WARMER IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOWS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DECREASE...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLGT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN VT...WHERE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASING FROM 14-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER NRN NY TO THE L/M80S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SLGT CHC FOR FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LVL WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW SETS IN EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL. THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE M60S-L70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S- 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING OUT OF THE 60S. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AGAIN. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRING WITH IT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 06Z-08Z AT MSS...AND PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EASTWARD...08Z TO 15Z AT BTV...AND THEN 12Z-01Z AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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