Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232351 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW- NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE 09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD- HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC. SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45 MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION... THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

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