Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200841 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 341 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front and associated upper level disturbance will move southward from southern Quebec across Vermont and northern New York overnight. This system will usher in colder air, along with a few flurries, mainly across the northern mountains. High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes providing more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions for Monday and Monday night. Calm winds and clear skies should make Monday night the coldest of the week, with overnight lows in the single digits and low teens. A quick moving low pressure system will bring a period of rain and localized mixed precipitation to the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Mild temperatures are then expected for the remainder of the week. The potential exists for widespread precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, and breezy conditions with low pressure passing to our west Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 958 PM EST Sunday...Late evening update for a few more minor adjustments, mainly to temps and precip chances. Weak frontal boundary continues to sag through the North Country overnight with very spotty drizzle and/or sprinkles reported across northern surface obs over the past couple hours. Moisture is really thinning out though as the boundary moves into central/southern areas with just about no echoes left on regional radar. Thus, reduced precip chances further for the rest of the night into Monday, and adjusted temps just a few degrees to match current observational trends. Otherwise, remainder of the forecast is intact with cloudy skies slowing eroding from northwest to southeast through the night, and low temps mainly in the 20s by sunrise except some upper teens possible across the Adirondacks. Good night. Monday and Monday night will feature relatively tranquil weather as sfc high pressure builds across from the northern Great Lakes and northern Ontario. Anticipate increasingly sunny conditions by Monday aftn with highs in the low-mid 30s. Winds will remain northerly around 10 mph. It appears we`ll have good radiational cooling conditions much of Monday night, likely yielding our coldest temperatures of the week. May see some cirrus moving in from the west toward daybreak, but light winds and dry deep- layer conditions should yield lows 10-15F in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and in the single digits elsewhere. May see a few readings below zero across far ern/nern VT, including around Island Pond, Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 339 AM EST Monday...Fast moving warm frontal system with westerly flow aloft along with narrow and weakening ribbon of high and mid level moisture will produce a progressive narrow axis of rain/snow/mix of light precipitation Tue night into Wednesday. Thermal profiles still showing mostly rain in the valleys but a mix of precipitation possible in the Adirondacks and possible freezing rain east of the Green Mountains as colder air lingers through Wednesday morning. QFP looks to be one to two tenths in the Dacks and Greens with some downslope shadowing likely here in the Champlain Valley associated with 850mb winds of 30 to 45 knots. Mild surface flow from the south and southwest will continue to keep temps above seasonal norms with Wednesday highs in the 40`s and pushing 50 in the Champlain Valley with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30`s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 339 AM EST Monday...Well above seasonal temperature trend continues late week into the weekend with developing eastern CONUS mid/upper level ridging. The next storm system continues to look like it will come Friday into Saturday with a low pressure system tracking north and west of our region. Thursday sees a weak short wave move to the north of the CWA with some warm moist advection ahead of a weak cold front which passes through late in the day or Thu eve. Highest chances for precipitation will be in the north and mainly in the form of light rain showers. High temperatures will range in the upper 40s to around lower 50`s with 925-mb temps of 3-8C north to south but cooling below 0C late Thursday night. Rising 500mb heights forecast along with primary low pressure tracking north and west of our region through the Great Lakes Friday through Saturday. Models have backed off potential secondary low near the NE coast, keeping it much further to the southeast, opening the door for even warmer conditions for Saturday before precipitation moves in. ECMWF shows temperatures in the Champlain Valley to reach nearly 60 degrees, so have opted to trend closer towards the warmer temps with highs in the mid 50`s. Things still look like we`ll be affected first by a warm front Fri evening/Fri night and cold occluded front Sat night before things quiet down on Sunday as the storm exits the region. Looks like a mix of precip may fall with the warm front on Friday followed by mainly windy and mild with rain showers on Saturday, before changing back to snow showers Sat late night. Sunday will see a return to closer to normal temps with highs in the mid to lower 30`s.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06Z Tuesday...BKN/OVC mix of VFR/MVFR cigs overnight under light north/northwesterly flow 5 to 10 knots. MVFR most prevalent at KSLK/KMPV terminals through 12Z and generally SKC at KMSS. Some evidence of stability aloft may produce scattered areas of turbulence above 100 AGL overnight. After 12Z skies gradually trend SKC at all terminals by afternoon under continued light north/northwesterly flow. Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday... 06Z Tuesday through 21Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure. 21Z Tuesday through 03Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in showers/light mixed precipitation with warm frontal passage. 03Z Wednesday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure. Will see a warm front approaching from the SW later Friday with increasing clouds and chances for MVFR rainfall per current indications late in the day. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...JMG

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