Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030801 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH STRATUS ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG OVER VT UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE STRONG MAY SUN THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE CLOUDS. SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT +2 TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION. WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY PM. LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT NEAR CALM ELSEWHERE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z. TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT. AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...SISSON

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