Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160230 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1030 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL/WRN NY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NRN NY/WRN VT ALSO REPORTING A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS A TAD ON THE DRY SIDE WITH 5-10 DEG TDD VALUES STILL NOTED ACROSS THE AREA SO ALOT OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY IS FALLING AS VIRGA. STILL FULLY EXPECT THAT AS PBL COOLS AND NEARS SATURATION OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE LEFT AREAL POPS AND PCPN AMTS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER LIGHT S/SW WINDS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY... ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST- EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE 925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC. WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKING FOR COLDER AIR TO OOZE IN THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SITUATION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY. MODELS ARE A LITTLE BIT MORE DIVERGENT SATURDAY ONWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE TREND IS FOR A DRY SATURDAY, WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MORE? WELL, JUST KEEP ON READING: THURSDAY: REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DO SHOW DEEP LAYER DRYING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN, BUT THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CUMULUS THAT THEY JUST CAN`T RESOLVE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST, BUT IT COULD END UP BEING MORE CLOUDY. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THING WE`LL NOTICE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DURING THE DAY (7-10C AT DAYBREAK TO 2-5C BY LATE DAY). SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS -- PERHAPS 60F DOWN IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF IT ENDS UP BEING MORE CLOUDY, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE TOO WARM. IF NOT ALREADY CLEAR, IT WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION SETTING UP. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING COOLER, AND I STILL WENT A BIT BELOW IT ESPECIALLY FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. BOTTOM LINE, LOOKS LIKE MOST OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS, THERE WILL BE A FREEZE -- SOME PLACES A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S. EVEN THE WARMEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROST. TO ME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACTIVELY GROWING PLANTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE WITH. FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING EAST, ALLOWING SLIGHT WARMING TO COMMENCE. STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 5-7C WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMER SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SHOULD MEAN WARMER IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER THAT FLOW ALWAYS HAS TROUBLE GETTING INTO AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN VERMONT, AND IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT THERE. IN GENERAL, LOTS OF 30S - WITH 40S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SATURDAY: 12 GFS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL POINTING TO A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMTH. THE 00Z EURO HAD SHOWERS COMING ACROSS. 12Z EURO BACKED OFF ON THAT, SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 11-14C, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS WELL, SO BECOMING BREEZY I WOULD THINK IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ESPECIALLY. DO HAVE SOME GUSTS TO 20MPH PAINTED IN, BUT COULD EVEN BE A BIT STRONGER. IN SUM, MILD AND BREEZY DAY. SUNDAY/MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE, SO DETAILS ARE MORE FUZZY. EURO WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BEFORE STALLING IT MONDAY. GFS IS LATER WITH THE FRONT MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. 925MB TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE AND UP TO 12-16C OR SO. UNCERTAIN HOWEVER HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE, SO STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH INDICATES UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SUNDAY AND 60S MONDAY. MAY STILL BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...SO MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. CEILINGS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT (5 KNOTS OR LESS) TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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