Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251738 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1256 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...SOME CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...DRY WEATHER...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TO GIVE SKIES A HAZY LOOK TO THEM. SMOKE HAS ORIGINATED FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA AND CARRIED DOWN INTO OUR AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY /NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80 OR SO ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S 00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT - PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS WORKED INTO FORECAST AREA DUE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE LAYER MAINLY ALOFT...BUT SOME MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY TO AROUND 6 MILES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FOG AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR AT MPV AND ONLY TEMPO FOR MVFR AT SLK. REST OF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. VFR SATURDAY WITH SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT MSS. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. 12Z MON - 00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...RJS

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