Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170652 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 948 PM EDT Monday...Gradual clearing trend from late this afternoon and earlier this evening continues as planned. Just updated grids but no changes needed. Aftn discussion...A mainly cloudy and cool day generally panned out as expected as temperatures have held nearly steady in the 40s under blustery, though gradually diminishing northwesterly flow. A few sprinkles and summit level freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to light. This will set the stage for seasonably chilly lows in the 25 to 35 degree range with customary variability and frost/freeze headlines continue for the immediate Champlain Valley where the local frost/freeze program remains in place. By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside a few passing high clouds. Winds trend southerly and become a bit gusty from the Champlain Valley west by afternoon as high temperatures range through the 50s, staying milder and only falling into the 35 to 45 degree range overnight, coldest east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure at the surface will continue as an upper level shortwave crosses to our north. Given the last trends in guidance and the lack of precipitable water (< 0.8"), I`ve gone ahead and removed mention of any precip over the northern tier of Vermont. Anticipate some clouds moving into the North Country and a subtle wind shift from south westerly winds to westerly winds. There should be some funneling up the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys so it should be pretty breezy in the Saint Lawrence Thursday afternoon. I`ve increased gusts to 20-30mph out of the south just ahead of the frontal passage. Winds in the higher terrain should be fairly brisk. 850-700mb winds should be in 45-50kt range. Otherwise it should be just another warm day in the North Country with temps around 70 in the valleys and upper 60s elsewhere. We cool down briefly but not even close to near normal on the backside of the front as temps overnight fall into the low to mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 250 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend the high pressure returns as a broad 1025mb high develops over the eastern CONUS. The ridge remains firmly in place through the weekend as anticyclonic flow brings warm air advection into the North Country. Temps will warm 2-3 degrees each day of the weekend with low 70s likely for Sunday. That certainly wont help our departures from normal which as of this morning is a full 9 degrees above normal for the month. Coming out of the weekend all of the longer ranged solutions are pointing towards a full latitude trough digging into the eastern CONUS which will bring showers to the region. Based on some of the thermal packing along with that front it should be more of our "normal" fall frontal systems with a 10-15 degree drop in temps by Wednesday back to near normal.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will trend mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds into the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at KSLK/KMPV/KRUT terminals through 02-03Z Tue then clearing...some Hi/Mid clouds Tue but vfr. Winds trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain Valley west. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001. NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/SLW SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG/SLW

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