Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201752 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 152 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS VT HAVE RAISED HIGHS AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SYR DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL PA. PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THAT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SET ON NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAVERSES VERY SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. LAPS CAPES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK CURRENTLY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG SO THERE STILL COULD BE SOME THUNDER ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WEAK FLOW PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS...TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND PROGGED PWS BETWEEN 1.0-1.5" SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. VT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NOT BEGINNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THINK POPS REFLECT THIS PRETTY WELL AT THIS POINT AND DIDN`T MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THOSE WITH THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C. THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN 12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS. TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER (MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE, THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS. 00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK). && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NASH

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