Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221740 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 140 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front moving across Vermont and New York during the pre-dawn hours will usher in much colder air today with strong and gusty northwesterly winds. Afternoon temperatures will generally range from the upper teens to lower 20s. High pressure in place for Thursday will result in lighter winds and moderating temperatures. A warm front will arrive on Friday with increasing clouds, gusty winds, and mixed wintry precipitation across the North Country. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 139 PM EDT Wednesday...The strong NW winds will continue gusts up to 35 mph throughout the daylight hrs. Mostly clear skies have spread across Northern New York, the Champlain Valley and most of Vermont. Strong cold air advection keeping highs generally upper teens to lower 20s, except mid teens in the Adirondacks. Strong surface anticyclone (1038mb) begins to move in from the Great Lakes region tonight and Thursday, bringing diminishing winds and mostly clear skies. Lows tonight generally in the single digits above zero, except in the lower teens in the vcnty of Lake Champlain. Some modest recovery on temps tomorrow aided by relatively high late March sun angle, with highs upr 20s to lower 30s and lighter nw winds 5-10 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday....Thursday night will remain quiet with strong sfc ridge shifting eastward into the Gulf of Maine. Will see developing south-southwest winds and increasing mid- upper level clouds combine to mitigate radiational cooling a bit. Should see lows in the lower 20s in the immediate vicinity of Lake Champlain, and mainly in the teens elsewhere. Most of the temperature drop will occur during the first half of the night before leveling off with thickening clouds from SW-NE. A more active weather pattern develops starting on Friday, as a warm front moves into the region from the SW. It appears snow will develop Friday morning, before changing to a mix of sleet and rain during the afternoon and evening hrs. Could see some impacts to travel in spots, mainly away from the Champlain Valley as moderately strong S-SW winds (15-25 mph, gusts 35mph) allow temperatures to climb through the 30s by Friday afternoon. Could see a minimal accumulation of snow/sleet in the Champlain Valley, with 1-3" across the nrn Adirondacks and central/ern VT...where subfreezing air will likely hold on a bit longer. Have started a mention in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. It appears initial surge of low-level WAA and associated 700mb shortwave trough will slide to our east Friday night. At the same time, the GFS/ECMWF have been trending toward a stronger sfc ridge to our north across Ontario and wrn Quebec. It`s likely that the sfc front will stall with an east-west orientation in vcnty of nrn NY/VT Friday night, with abundant low clouds and possible light rain/drizzle. It`s possible that the front may settle south a bit if there is a shallow push of colder air from srn Quebec. That could have an impact on precipitation type later Friday night, though again, any precip during this time frame is expected to be light. Have shown lows in the upr 20s to lower 30s for now, and will continue to monitor model trends with regard to positional of the quasi- stationary front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Greater than average run-to-run model variance during the long-term period. Anticipate a W-E quasi- stationary front across the North Country Saturday morning, with latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF suggesting a shallow push of colder air/north winds associated with strong anticyclone to our north. This should result in the frontal zone sagging to the south during the day Saturday into Saturday night. If those trends hold, should see diminishing chances for precipitation, and even some partial clearing across nrn areas with drier air moving in from the N-NE. Attm, showing just 20-30 PoPs across the Adirondacks into s-central VT for possible -RW/-SW on Saturday. Highs on Saturday expected in the mid-upr 30s north, but possibly low-mid 40s south depending on exact trends with the frontal boundary. Strong surface high pressure across central Quebec should keep us relatively dry Saturday night thru the first half of Sunday. Next shortwave trough in the Ohio Valley may result in the next surge of low- level WAA and isentropic lift as winds turn S-SW across our area later Sunday into Monday. If bndry retreats nwd as a warm front, may again see a period of mixed wintry precipitation, with snow/sleet trending toward mainly rain for the daylight hrs Monday. Again, greater than normal degree of variance in the 00z NWP model suite, so we will continue to monitor trends. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions with gusty winds will persist through the rest of today into this evening. BLSN may reduce visibilities at KMPV through the early-mid afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure building in will continue to diminish cloud cover and keep dry weather over the region for the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies will prevail. Strong gusty winds continue at all sites through the evening hours. Expect gusts to subside starting 02Z-04Z KMSS/KSLK...07z- 08Z in the Champlain Valley. KMPV may see gusts throughout the overnight, but less intense about 12-17kts. Thursday morning, winds pick up again but not as strong out of the NW at 8-12kts with gusts less than 20 kts possible. 18Z Thursday through Monday... 18Z Thursday through 12Z Friday - VFR/high pressure. 12Z Friday through 12Z Saturday - VFR/MVFR/IFR in wintry mixed precipitation. 12Z Saturday through 00Z Monday - Mainly VFR. 00Z Monday onward - VFR/MVFR in wintry mixed precipitation possible.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Banacos/Deal LONG TERM...Banacos/Deal AVIATION...KGM

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