Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141436 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1036 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1036 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE MORNING. GUSTY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE GREENS THIS MORNING WITH KBTV RECENTLY GUSTING TO 39 KTS IN THE PAST HOUR. MODEL WIND FIELDS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...AS BEST DEPICTION OF CURRENT SITUATION IS COMING FROM THE RAW HI-RES DATA...BUT WHICH IS COMPROMISED LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY MODELLED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NY. SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT GRIDS AS IS SHOWING GUSTS INTO THE 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOCALLY HIGHER INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK SHOWING NEARLY ALL AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING THE 80F MARK IN THE WARMEST LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. IF WE HIT 80F IN BURLINGTON TODAY...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7TH OF LAST YEAR. IN TERNS OF PCPN CHANCES...ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE DAY. FURTHER WEST LEAD/FRONT-END SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTH FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY STATES LIKELY TO SPARK SCT SHOWRS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS WEST INTO THE SLV BY LATE DAY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE INCOMING HI-RES DATA SUGGESTS THIS MAY SET UP A TAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WILL DISCOUNT FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN SEE HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S. GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND KMPV WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. MORE STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP. CANNOT RULE OUT A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHOWERS WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 21Z AT MSS/SLK AND BY 00Z WEDS AT PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUES EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES WITH CLRING EXPECTED ON WEDS INTO THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...JMG

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