Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041713 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 113 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND UPSTATE VERMONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE MID WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1254 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THIS TIME...WITH STRONGEST STORMS FROM ESSEX COUNTY VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY. MORE CELLS POPPING UP FURTHER WEST HOWEVER...SO THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE REST OF AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ORGANIZED AS LINE TRACKING EAST ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH SB CAPE VALUES 1500-3000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 800-1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. SUFFICIENT SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY STORMS IN WATCH AREA...BUT ATMOSPHERE DOES BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND SHEAR DECREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STORMS IN WATCH AREA...AND SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON LATEST DATA. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT...THE SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING TONIGHT. SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AS COLD AS -15C TO -18C OVER NRN NY AND VT. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE W/SW FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY IMPACT THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND NRN DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 50S TO L60S WITH A FEW COLDER READINGS OVER THE MTNS. WEDNESDAY...ALMOST A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING. SPC ACTUALLY OUTLOOKS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF NRN NY AND N- CNTRL VT IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED. THE COLD POOL OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR AUGUST DRIFTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD FOCUS SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN. HAIL MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH H500 TEMPS IN THE -17C T -19C RANGE...AND DECENT SFC HEATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE WITH LOWER TO M70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 60S TO AROUND 70F OVER THE MTNS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. THE H500 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +5C TO +7C...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME IN AUGUST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER THE REGION. THU-THU NIGHT...STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT DUE TO THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER NY AND VT THU NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DUE TO THE EMERGENCY BACKUP...THE LONG TERM WAS KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD SPOTS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR PREDOMINATES...BUT EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IN THE 14-17Z TIME PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOVING INTO VERMONT TERMINALS THEREAFTER. I/VE WENT WITH MVFR +SHRA FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO AMEND GIVEN THE EXACT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...HAIL AND LIGHTNING ALL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS/STORMS END BY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KTS BY EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... EQUIPMENT...JMG

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