Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010229 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1027 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN PA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT REACHING THE NYC AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE NORTH OF MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...THOUGH GFS AND SEVERAL MESOSCALE RUNS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES TOWARD MORNING. HAVE INDICATED LOW (20-30%) POPS FOR SHOWERS IN S-CENTRAL VERMONT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DEALING WITH WEAK E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW- MID 50S. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS THAT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE MADE A FEW EDITS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL VERY FAR TONIGHT GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S (GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 418 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND LOCKED IN ON THE UPCOMING PATTERN SHIFT. DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FEEL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER SLOW...OFFERING A GOOD 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE PRONE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG 50-60KT SOUTHEASTERLY JET AT 850MB PRE-FRONT. DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AT 925MB RIGHT NOW...BUT THEN AGAIN WE`RE LOOKING AT THE COARSE 40KM RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND INTO THE TIME-SCALE OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THOUGH IN REALITY THEY WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM WHAT WE SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WE`VE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR SO LONG THOUGH THAT IT`LL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS SUN/MON/TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 40S ON THE MTN PEAKS...AND LOWS WILL RUN GENERALLY IN THE 40S VALLEYS TO 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 05Z LOOKING FOR MVFR AT KBTV/KPBG/KRUT BUT LOCALLY IFR/LIFR AT KSLK KMPV KMSS THROUGH 15Z WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE THE EAST AND SE FLOW OVER OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE AGAIN WITH DIFFERING CONDITIONS AT EACH TAF SITE AND SO LITTLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS RELATIVELY HIGH AND SOME MIST ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KMSS INDICATING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. HAVE FOLLOWED LAMP GUIDANCE FOR TRENDS IN CIG/VSBY WHICH AGAIN IS LIFR IN SPOTS WITH CIGS 300-500 FT. IF WINDS DIE OFF VSBY COULD EVEN BE LOWER (VLIFR <1/2 MI) AT SOME SPOTS BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH NE-SE WIND TO KEEP OUT FOR NOW. LOOK FOR SLOW IMPROVING 14-18Z WITH RISING CIGS AND VSBY TO MVFR/VFR. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-15Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...SISSON

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