Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210749 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 349 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure area and a warm front will approach the North Country overnight and will bring moderate rain to the region, mainly during the pre-dawn hours. Rain will continue into Friday, before tapering off to showers Friday afternoon and Friday night. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Sunday and will remain over the North Country through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1123 PM EDT Thursday...Forecast remains on track. Broad region of 850-700mb warm advection across sern Ontario into central NY will shift newd into nrn NY and VT during the remainder of the overnight hrs...in advance of low pressure across nrn lower Michigan. It appears convective instability driving tstm activity across s-central NY and PA will remain south of our region. However, strong synoptic ascent will move across the North Country between 06-09Z, bringing steady moderate rainfall to most locations for several hrs. Only minor adjustments to total QPF...generally 0.5-0.75" expected, but orographic enhancement is possible on S-SW facing slopes, with rainfall near 1" possible srn Greens and portions of the Adirondacks high peaks. Winds are light and variable late this evening. However, will see some gusty S-SE winds around daybreak with increasing p-gradient, with gusts 20-30 mph once the steady rain ends, and gusts locally to 30-40 mph along the immediate wrn slopes of the Green Mtns with downslope effects. Rain will continue into Friday morning before tapering off to showers Friday afternoon as best synoptic forcing shifts to our east. A slight chance of showers will continue into Friday night. Expecting low temperatures to be mainly in the 40s overnight. High on Friday from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Friday night from the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 349 AM EDT Friday...High pressure will build steadily into the region Saturday night with any scattered evening showers ending across northeastern counties overnight. Lingering moisture trapped beneath a building synoptic inversion should keep ample cloud cover across the area early before skies trend partly cloudy overnight. If enough clearing develops late patchy fog may develop in a few areas. Lows a blend of available guidance offering values mainly in the 30s. A better day then on tap for Sunday as elongated high pressure bridges east from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the northeast. Expect partial to full sunshine through the course of the day with light winds and sesaonably mild temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Should be a great day for any outdoor activities.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 349 AM EDT Friday...Mainly fair and dry weather is then expected for Sunday night into Monday as high pressure generally remains in control. A weak front will attempt to drop southward into the northern tier of counties Sunday night with perhaps an outside shot of a few showers from the international border northward, but all and all this feature will be a non-player other than bringing in a few more clouds as deeper moisture will be limited. Thermal profiles suggest little airmass change into Monday, perhaps a few degrees cooler across the north as highs top out in the 50s to around 60. More uncertainty then creeps back into the forecast from Tuesday onward into Thursday of next week. Latest medium range guidance remains at odds in regard to vigorous close energy lifting northeast from the souteastern seaboard by Monday night into Tuesday with the GFS/Canadian GEM having a more westerly solution than the ECWMF, and particularly the UKMET which keeps a much slower system down across the SC/NC region until Wednesday night. Given these differences a middle of the road path will be offered until more clarity can be achieved. This will suggest mainly dry weather will continue Monday night before a gradual increase in shower chances arrive into southern counties by Tuesday afternoon and across the remainder of the area Tuesday night. Thereafter, I`ll maintain a general 20-30 percent chance of showers from Wednesday onward into Thursday as another northern stream surface front drops into the region and waffles near or just northwest of us. Hard to really pinpoint the degree or areal coverage of any showers related to this feature at this point, but I imagine there will be considerable stretches of drier weather in the this time frame. Temperatures will gradually trend milder, with widespread 60s expected from Tuesday onward into late week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Conditions will largely be a mix of VFR and MVFR over the next 24 hours with steady rainfall through about 12-15Z reducing vsby to MVFR and cigs a mix of VFR/MVFR. Thereafter scattered showers may briefly reduce vsby at times, but cigs should lift to VFR area-wide until later in the evening after 22-24Z when a gradual lowering back to MVFR is expected. Winds mainly SSE becoming increasingly gusty by dawn with gusts in the 20-30kt range especially at KBTV through the daylight hours, abating after sunset. Outlook... Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...No major issues are expected on area rivers and streams but we should see some modest rises on Friday with basin average QPF in the 0.50-0.90" range (occurring late tonight into Friday AM). Concerns still exist on Lake Champlain with gusty southerly winds developing late tonight and Friday morning. This will likely cause rises across the northern portion of Lake Champlain, where Rouses Point could rise slightly above flood stage on Friday. This will be closely monitored over the next 12-24 hours. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff HYDROLOGY...Team BTV

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