Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190810 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 310 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND 850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR. 00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI

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