Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261404 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1004 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cloudy, cool, and wet day is expected across the North Country today as a coastal low pressure system slowly moves away from Southern New England. High pressure will produce a dry Saturday and Sunday...with more showers arriving Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be near normal for Saturday...but trend toward above normal values by Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1004 AM EDT Friday...Overall forecast in good shape. Extensive area of clouds on satellite are not going anywhere today. This should keep temperatures fairly steady the remainder of the day with highs generally in the 50s. Bulk of precipitation will be from the northern Adirondacks eastward today. Again going forecast has these big picture items handled well and no big changes are needed. Previous discussion below: Current radar shows a band of moderate to locally heavy rain rotating thru southern/central and eastern VT this morning with a couple rumbles of thunder. Have mention isolated thunder in grids for the next couple of hours...noted VSF had reported lightning and received 0.66 of rain in 2 hours between 06-08z. Water vapor shows well developed cyclone across southern New England with classic comma head cloud structure over our cwa associated with warm/cold conveyor belt interaction. The closed/negatively tilted mid/upper level circulation will track across southern New England today...before lifting northeast into the Northern Atlantic tonight. This places our central/eastern cwa in favorable deformation zones associated with comma head today...with widespread light to localized moderate rainfall expected. The highest pops/qpf fields will be eastern dacks and points east...with precip amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.75. Thinking an additional 0.50 here in the CPV by 00z tonight. Helping to enhance precip in the cpv will be northerly winds and associated terrain convergence...especially aft 15z today. Also...flow becomes highly blocked with froude values <0.50 today. Will mention pops near 100% east/central and taper off to likely/chc SLV today. Given all the clouds and precip...along with developing northerly winds...expect temps to hold steady mainly upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. Tonight...mid/upper level cyclonic circulation and associated surface low pres slowly lift northeast...with areal coverage of precip becoming terrain focused. Some patchy fog is possible with saturated boundary layer conditions...but clouds and lack of radiational cooling should keep fog to protected valleys and patchy. If more clearing occurs than anticipated...than fog could be more widespread...but both gfs/nam show lingering 1000 to 500mb rh fields >70s for most of the night. Clouds will keep temps steady in the mid/upper 40s mountains to mid 50s valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 AM EDT Friday...Short term begins rather quietly on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region to start the Memorial Day weekend. Diminishing cloud cover will help temperatures return to more seasonable norms with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in upper 40s to low 50s. The trend continues on Sunday as the high pressure ridge crests over the area bringing another day of nice conditions for the majority of of the day. Another day of clearing skies and southwesterly flow will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s before clouds begin to creep back as the ridge shifts east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Friday... The long term starts out with an upper level low pressure system tracking west of the Great Lakes and lifts a warm front through the North Country during the overnight to pre-dawn hours of Monday. Late-morning to early afternoon Monday will see a weak cold front swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Tuesday through Friday will see on and off showers, mainly afternoon and evening, as a second cold front and several nuance post frontal troughs swing through the region. Cold advection will bring 850mb temps down from 7-10C on Tue to around 5C Wed and 4C on Thu. The cold advection and daytime heating will contribute to very weak instability and scattered showers. High temperatures will start out in the 70s on Tue before falling back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows will in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Current obs show vfr at pbg/btv to mvfr at mpv/mss/rut with ifr at slk. Conditions at all sites have been jumping around from ifr to vfr...especially mss/mpv/rut. As low level winds continue to shift toward the northwest direction...expect ifr cigs to develop in the cpv...including rut/btv. In addition...favorable upslope flow and plenty of low level moisture will produce continued IFR cigs at slk/mpv...and mss. Vis generally in the vfr range...but some mvfr vis possible in the heavier precip elements rotating around vertically stack system over southern New England. Conditions slowly improve this afternoon to mvfr at most sites...before some additional low clouds and patchy fog tonight. Winds generally northwest 4 to 8...except northeast at mss 8 to 15 knots. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Taber

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