Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251802 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 202 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the north today will bring gradually lessening chances for precipitation, pushing a frontal boundary south of the area with some afternoon sunshine expected, mainly across central and northern areas. A clear and cold night is expected thereafter, with low temperatures widely varying from the single digits to the upper teens above zero. Unsettled and warmer weather returns for the end of the weekend as developing low pressure over the central U.S. pushes the front back north Sunday afternoon into Monday, with periods of rain, snow and mixed precipitation expected through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 1052 AM EDT Saturday...Shield of precipitation still mainly remaining south of our forecast area this morning. Have some pops mentioned across our Southern Vermont zones this morning. Should see some clearing in our Northern zones later this afternoon. Previous discussion follows. Precipitation waned overnight across the North Country as high pressure currently centered over the southern tip of James Bay continued to slowly sag southward toward the international border. Surface observation analysis shows the frontal boundary which brought yesterday`s rain, snow and sleet has shifted to our south, but a cold front is still looming north of the border at this hour with temps/dewpoints still holding in the upper 20s to low 30s around Montreal. Further north, north of say Quebec City temps do drop off significantly into the teens so it`ll take a good chunk of the day for this front to work it`s way into the region, beginning to clear out skies in the mid- afternoon across northern areas, and towards sunset for central/southern zones. Could see a few showers re-develop mid- day across southern Vermont, but for most of the area conditions should be largely dry. With a little bit of sunshine we should realize high temps in the mid/upper 30s with light winds this morning turning to the north this afternoon at around 5-10 mph. For tonight, clear skies and light winds combined with a deep late season snowpack will once again set the stage for another round of below normal temperatures. Some high clouds will try to advance from the southwest late, but shouldn`t hinder temps dropping off into the single digits across the Adirondacks and central/northeast Vermont, while the deeper valley locales will mainly stay in the teens. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Saturday....Large area of high pressure will exist over eastern Canada and northern New England Sunday morning and move slowly east during the day. This will allow a frontal boundary to move back northeast into the region late in the day and especially Sunday night. As a result...the threat of precipitation will increase from southwest to northeast across the area Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night. Interesting thermal profile will exist over the area with colder air in the low levels becoming established east of the Greens and eventually warmer air aloft moving gradually eastward over the top of the shallow layer of colder air. The net result will be the potential for mixed precipitation east of the Greens...sleet and freezing rain...and there may even be some freezing rain over northern New York where warmest air aloft will exist. First wave of precipitation that lifts into the region will not be significant... nevertheless it will not take much sleet or freezing rain to impact travel late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. More widespread precipitation will spread from west to east across the area late Sunday night into Monday. Thermal profile will change enough for most of the precipitation to be in the form of rain across the area...but there will still be a period Monday morning where mixed precipitation will exist Monday morning. Situation will definitely need to be monitored for any potential headline. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...Precipitation tapers off Monday night...but drier weather will be short lived as upper trough moves into the region on Tuesday with widespread rain expected with highs in the 40s to around 50. Northwest flow will keep some showers lingering in the mountains on Wednesday...but drier weather expected for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to upper 40s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Low clouds have been slow to erode from the north country this afternoon, with areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings. Expecting skies to gradually clear out overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds southeast from Canada overnight. Expecting mainly VFR conditions across Vermont and northern New York by 04Z Sunday through 18Z Sunday. Composite radar loop at 1753Z Saturday showing some precipitation over southern Vermont at this time. This precipitation will move south of the region overnight. Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday... 18Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...mainly VFR. 00Z Monday through 00Z Thursday...periods of mixed precipitation, though mainly rain with cigs/vsby variable from IFR to MVFR. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR, except for some scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...WGH

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