Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041109 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 709 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THEREAFTER...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 705 AM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH VALLEY HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS ARE STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. (NORMAL HIGH IN BTV TODAY IS 76). HUMIDITY LEVELS NOTICEABLY LOWER...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 335 AM EDT FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TEMP PROFILES WARM SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE FOR MOST. RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CREEP UP A BIT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS WE FINISH UP THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE CONTINUED WARM ADD DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR TUESDAY, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. GFS AND CANADIAN GEM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS ON STRONGER TO THE RIDGE IN PLACE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OVERALL IMPACT. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING FORWARD TO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME-FRAME WHERE A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED THOUGH, THE BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY, BUT THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS RIGHT THROUGH THE BTV CWA THURSDAY LIKELY PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ONE THING`S FOR SURE, BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HOPEFULLY (FINGERS CROSSED) THE END OF THIS HOT/HUMID STRETCH. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT LIFR/VLIFR AT KSLK/KMPV. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 09Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSLK, BUT TURN LIGHTER TOWARDS 10-11Z. THUS, INSTEAD OF A FORECAST FOR PREVAILING LIFR, I`VE LEFT IT AS A TEMPO. AT KMPV WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO VLIFR IS EXPECTED FROM 08-13Z. AFTER 13Z, ALL SITES WILL BE VFR FOR THE DAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR VLIFR/IFR FG/BR LIKELY AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING. 00Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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