Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 251802
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
202 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
High pressure building in from the north today will bring
gradually lessening chances for precipitation, pushing a
frontal boundary south of the area with some afternoon sunshine
expected, mainly across central and northern areas. A clear and
cold night is expected thereafter, with low temperatures widely
varying from the single digits to the upper teens above zero.
Unsettled and warmer weather returns for the end of the weekend
as developing low pressure over the central U.S. pushes the
front back north Sunday afternoon into Monday, with periods of
rain, snow and mixed precipitation expected through mid-week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1052 AM EDT Saturday...Shield of precipitation still
mainly remaining south of our forecast area this morning. Have
some pops mentioned across our Southern Vermont zones this
morning. Should see some clearing in our Northern zones later
this afternoon. Previous discussion follows.
Precipitation waned overnight across the North Country as high
pressure currently centered over the southern tip of James Bay
continued to slowly sag southward toward the international
border. Surface observation analysis shows the frontal boundary
which brought yesterday`s rain, snow and sleet has shifted to
our south, but a cold front is still looming north of the border
at this hour with temps/dewpoints still holding in the upper
20s to low 30s around Montreal. Further north, north of say
Quebec City temps do drop off significantly into the teens so
it`ll take a good chunk of the day for this front to work it`s
way into the region, beginning to clear out skies in the mid-
afternoon across northern areas, and towards sunset for
central/southern zones. Could see a few showers re-develop mid-
day across southern Vermont, but for most of the area conditions
should be largely dry. With a little bit of sunshine we should
realize high temps in the mid/upper 30s with light winds this
morning turning to the north this afternoon at around 5-10 mph.
For tonight, clear skies and light winds combined with a deep
late season snowpack will once again set the stage for another
round of below normal temperatures. Some high clouds will try to
advance from the southwest late, but shouldn`t hinder temps
dropping off into the single digits across the Adirondacks and
central/northeast Vermont, while the deeper valley locales will
mainly stay in the teens.
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Saturday....Large area of high pressure will
exist over eastern Canada and northern New England Sunday
morning and move slowly east during the day. This will allow a
frontal boundary to move back northeast into the region late in
the day and especially Sunday night. As a result...the threat of
precipitation will increase from southwest to northeast across
the area Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.
Interesting thermal profile will exist over the area with colder
air in the low levels becoming established east of the Greens
and eventually warmer air aloft moving gradually eastward over
the top of the shallow layer of colder air. The net result will
be the potential for mixed precipitation east of the
Greens...sleet and freezing rain...and there may even be some
freezing rain over northern New York where warmest air aloft
will exist. First wave of precipitation that lifts into the
region will not be significant... nevertheless it will not take
much sleet or freezing rain to impact travel late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. More widespread precipitation will
spread from west to east across the area late Sunday night into
Monday. Thermal profile will change enough for most of the
precipitation to be in the form of rain across the area...but
there will still be a period Monday morning where mixed
precipitation will exist Monday morning. Situation will
definitely need to be monitored for any potential headline. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s and
in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...Precipitation tapers off Monday
night...but drier weather will be short lived as upper trough
moves into the region on Tuesday with widespread rain expected
with highs in the 40s to around 50. Northwest flow will keep
some showers lingering in the mountains on Wednesday...but drier
weather expected for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures
will generally be in the upper 30s to upper 40s Wednesday
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Low clouds have been slow to erode from
the north country this afternoon, with areas of IFR/MVFR
ceilings. Expecting skies to gradually clear out overnight as a
ridge of high pressure builds southeast from Canada overnight.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions across Vermont and northern New
York by 04Z Sunday through 18Z Sunday. Composite radar loop at
1753Z Saturday showing some precipitation over southern Vermont
at this time. This precipitation will move south of the region
Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...
18Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...mainly VFR.
00Z Monday through 00Z Thursday...periods of mixed
precipitation, though mainly rain with cigs/vsby variable from
IFR to MVFR. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday.
00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR, except for some
scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.