Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020611 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 211 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND OFF THE COAST AND AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER RAINY DAY TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 211 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS THE REST OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVES MID MORNING ASSOCIATED TROF MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REDEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION BY NOON TODAY AND WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN REGIONS WHERE UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL WHILE ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHEST POPS 80-100 %/CATEGORICAL WILL BE DURING MIDDAY THEN TAPERING OFF TOWARDS BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 5-10 DEGREES TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MOST PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35 TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL OBSCURE MTNS. WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z, UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE (INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY (14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN BUT STILL A THREAT OF IFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FLOW TURNS FROM LIGHT NE/SE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY. CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR IS LOW BUT HIGH FOR MVFR. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING AFT 00Z WITH TREND TOWARD VFR AT KMSS/KPBG BY 03-06Z BUT PERSISTENT MVFR ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI: VFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...SISSON

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