Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191125 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 725 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. BY MID MORNING HOWEVER...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS. DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE 540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME MORNING FOG AT KBTV/KMPV AND LOW STRATUS AT KRUT THROUGH 14Z. CIRRUS INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PICK UP OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .CLIMATE... AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F 1979 RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F 1990 MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F 1959 ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F 1943 MASSENA (MSS)..........30F 2008 BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F 1959 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-016>018. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009- 011-012-019. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF CLIMATE...NASH

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