Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221751 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1251 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Skies will remain cloudy over the north country for most of this week, with a prolonged period of unsettled weather expected. A low pressure area will develop along the mid Atlantic coast on Monday and will move slowly northeast to around Cape Cod by early Tuesday night. This low pressure area will bring mixed precipitation types to the north country Monday night and Tuesday, with rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain possible Monday night and Tuesday. This low pressure area will then move northeast into the Canadian maritimes by Wednesday morning. Another low pressure area over the Great Lakes will move east and bring a chance of rain and snow showers to the north country from Wednesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1231 PM EST Sunday...Updated forecast to drop highs by another 1 to 3 degrees with temps mainly holding in the mid to upper 30s...a spot 40 is still possible near VSF. Otherwise...low clouds and areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle depending upon temp will continue for the rest of the afternoon. Also...web cams still showing areas of fog...especially higher terrain where snow pack is present. All covered well in current forecast. Previous discussion from 427 AM EST Sunday...Models continue to show plenty of low level moisture trapped beneath a low level temperature inversion. Expect this to continue today through Monday. Surface observations showing temperatures at or near the dew point across the region at this time, resulting in quite a bit of fog across the north country early this morning. Expecting this fog to burn off by late this morning. Have gone with slight chance pops for light rain or periods of drizzle today. Temperatures will climb to the upper 30s to lower 40s today. Tonight, models continue to hint at some colder air working into the region today as winds shift to the north. Could see a slight chance of some more drizzle or very light mixed precipitation tonight. Have gone with colder min temperatures today, but still a few degrees warmer than mos guidance, given expected cloud cover. On Monday, models continue to show upper ridge over the region, with a ridge of surface high pressure over the Canadian maritimes. This surface ridge will result in some cold air east of the Green Mountains. ECMWF and GFS models continue trend of slowing down the arrival of precipitation into the region from the low pressure area along the mid Atlantic coast until Monday night. Thus, have kept most of the day on Monday dry, with just cloudy skies expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EST Sunday...High pressure retreating far to our north and east and mild air over the North Country will set up for complex thermal profiles as low pressure system approaches from the DelMarVa coast Monday night. Precip north of the low will spread from south to north accompanied by a tight pressure gradient and strong easterly 850mb jet. As precip spreads across the North Country, NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show warm layer mainly between 800-700mb resulting in widespread wintry mix into Tuesday morning. Models currently suggest sleet/snow mix being the predominant PType for most of the area. With initial surge of moisture expect most areas to see 1-4 inches of snow sleet mix through Tuesday morning. As low continues to track near the coast, reaching SE Long Island midday Tuesday PWATS increase to around three quarters of an inch Monday night and Tuesday. Associated 500mb trough becomes more negatively tilted resulting in warmer air aloft moving into eastern VT and transitioning precip to rain for the latter half of Tuesday. The surface low continues NEwd toward the coast of Maine into Tuesday night with colder air eventually moving into the North Country and ending the precip at snow as it begins to taper off Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Storm total snow/sleet accumulations through 12Z Wednesday will generally range from 2 to 5 inches, with higher amounts possible depending on how long the warm layer remains in place, how quickly the colder air moves in as the surface low moves NE. The strong 850mb jet Monday night into early Tuesday will lead to downsloping winds, easterly slope enhanced precip and westerly slope/valley shadowing. With steady precip and cloudy skies, do not think low level jet will be able to fully mix down, resulting in gusts of 20 to 30 mph in most valleys with stronger gusts for south central Vermont of 30 to 40 mph and higher at the summits of Vermont and northern NY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Sunday...Lingering snow showers expected but overall active period continues as we remain under 500mb troughiness. Quick moving low forms in the lee of the Rockies and arrives for the latter half of Wednesday with rain/snow showers expected to be light. Low chances for rain/snow showers continue into the weekend. Above normal temperatures close out the work week with a cooling trend. Saturday temperatures strive to be within 5 degrees of normal for late January. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
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Through 18Z Monday...Aviation focus continues to be on low cigs and associated ifr/lifr conditions at slk/rut/btv. Thinking mvfr cigs will develop at btv by 20z...and 22z or so at rut...but prevail most of the time at slk. Soundings at kmss show low level moisture advecting back into the Saint Lawrence Valley this evening so have lowered cigs back toward ifr conditions by 00z. Otherwise...used a persistent forecast overnight with cigs ranging from vfr to ifr depending upon location. Not expecting widespread fog...due to increasing 975mb to 925mb winds of 15 to 25 knots...especially after 06z. Outlook 18Z Monday through Thursday... Expecting a wintry mix of precip to develop on Monday evening and continue into Tuesday with the potential for moderate icing and major impacts to the aviation community. A mix of snow...sleet...and freezing rain is expected...with the heaviest precip occurring between 03z-15z Tuesday. Expect mvfr to ifr cigs/vis with periods of lifr vis in the heavier bursts of snow/sleet. Also...gusty southeast/east winds are likely at Rutland during this time period...with areas of wind shear and turbulence areawide associated with 925mb to 800mb winds of 50 to 60 knots. Improving conditions with lingering rain/snow showers on Weds into Thursday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Taber

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