Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 222327 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 727 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level trough over the North Country will exit eastward tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Sunday and will remain over the region through Monday. Then a coastal low pressure system will bring rain to portions of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures will see a warm up for the latter half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 720 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track. Will see some competing influences overnight as strengthening inversion 850-800mb layer helps to trap stratus layer, while drier air gradually works in from the NNW with 20-25kt winds at 900mb. Anticipate a very gradual clearing overnight, starting with the St. Lawrence Valley and eventually into the Champlain Valley toward daybreak. Orographic upslope will maintain stratus especially across the nrn Adirondacks and areas east of the Green Mtns overnight. Can`t rule out some patchy fog after midnight across nrn NY in areas that do clear out, and as PBL stabilizes. Composite reflectivity still shows a few isold -RW in cyclonic flow field, especially across wrn VT. Will maintain 15-30% PoPs thru about 06Z before trending completely dry. QPF amts T" to a few hundreths, mainly across the mtns. Skies will trend mostly sunny with light winds for Sunday, setting up a pleasant day. Temperatures tonight will be directly impacted by how quickly/slowly clouds move out. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler over most of NY than VT as clearing reaches nrn NY first. Generally expect mins in the upper 20s to mid 30s. With more sunshine, max temperatures on Sunday expected to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 343 PM EDT Saturday...Surface ridge axis will slide off the Atlantic coast as cold front associated with surface low near Hudson`s Bay skims the international border. Expect North Country to stay mainly dry, but see an increase in clouds through Monday. Min temps Sunday night in the 30s. Due to the increase in clouds, max temps Monday will be cooler in the upper 40s to mid 50s...coolest temperatures will be further north under thicker clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern anticipated for days 4 thru 7 with chances for mainly light rain showers. First round of light rainfall occurs Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Night...with main focus along and east of the CPV. This precip is associated with developing east/southeast flow and plume of deeper moisture with pws values approaching 1.0". However...nose of 850mb jet remains to our east...along with deepest moisture progs...so anticipating mainly light rain with initial 5h vort and good upper level divergence from departing rrq of 250mb jet over eastern Canada on Tuesday evening. Qpf will range from <0.10 western cwa to 0.10 to 0.30 across the favorable se upslope regions of the Green Mountains. A brief break is anticipated late Tuesday Night...before more moisture associated with closed 5h/7h and weak surface low pres along the coast impacts our region by Weds. Latest GFS/ECMWF shows a sharp west to east gradient in the 850 to 500mb moisture fields...so anticipating heavier precip east and just clouds over the slv on Weds. The combination of easterly upslope flow at 25 to 35 knots between 925mb and 850mb and additional 5h vorticity advection will produce another 0.10 to 0.25 across our central/eastern sections on Weds. Clouds and precip will have impact on temps with warmest values near 70f SLV and much cooler with easterly flow and moisture across our eastern cwa with highs upper 40s to lower 50s likely on Weds. System is progged to lift ne of our cwa by Thursday with weak short wave ridge building across the mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. This results in strong low level waa on breezy south/southwest winds. Progged 850mb temps btwn 12-14c with 925mb temps 18 to 20c...support highs well into the 70s with a few readings near 80f. Have trended toward the ecmwf for a slower arrival of next system with the potential for showers entering our western cwa by 18z Thursday and tracking east toward evening. Thinking a slower departure of mid/upper level cyclonic on Weds...will result in a slower arrival of next system for Thursday...therefore have trimmed back superblend pops to chance at this time. Depending upon fropa timing...surface heating could produce some modest CAPE values between 200 and 600 j/kg to support a rumble or two of thunder. Just a thought as we move forward. Otherwise...a front is draped across our the region on Friday into Saturday with cooler and unsettled weather prevailing. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Champlain valley seeing VFR conditions with MVFR at KMSS/KSLK and IFR at KMPV. Expect VFR to persist in the Champlain Valley through Sunday evening. Back edge of MVFR cigs is gradually shifting eastward and expect KMSS to see breaks in overcast late this afternoon. However, VFR not expected til after 00Z at KMSS. MVFR cigs expected to persist at KSLK longer in generally upslope flow. Brief break in MVFR cigs after 02Z will result in potential for MVFR BR/FG development and MVFR cigs. Expect conditions to improve to VFR after sunrise Sunday. IFR at KMPV will improve to MVFR this afternoon and eventually become VFR early Sunday morning. Scattered rain showers this afternoon will diminish this evening. Winds generally out of the W to NW at 5-10kts this afternoon and evening. With high pressure building overnight, lgt and vrb winds expected through late morning Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...KGM

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