Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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144 FXUS61 KBTV 110550 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1250 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1212 AM EST THURSDAY...COLDER TEMPS AND INCREASING WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW IN THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS DURING THURSDAY PM. EXTENDED CURRENT TREND OF COOLING TEMPS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS 925 MB TEMPS FALL FROM -13 AT 12Z TO -20C BY 00Z WITH 925 WINDS INCREASING FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL FALLING IN THE NORTH AND NEAR STEADY IN THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOW 20S AT KVSF IN THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED AREAS/PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW, SNOW SHOWERS, OR FLURRIES WITH A LIGHT DUSTING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WNW UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING BLOCKED SOMEWHAT WITH FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND OR LESS THAN 1. THE BLOCKING CAUSING SOME MORE PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT SNOW UP AGAINST THE GREENS. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE MORNING RUSH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB- 850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1 POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/NEILES/SISSON NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES/SISSON SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...NEILES

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