Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 171146
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
746 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The next few days will be a bit unsettled with some isolated to
scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the
mountains. Any snow accumulations will be light and confined to the
higher peaks. The shower chances will end later in the week but
temperatures will remain around or below climatological normals.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 743 AM EDT Sunday... The steadier rain is moving out as
forecast and should be out of the region in the next couple
hours. After that, there will only be a few scattered showers
remaining. Snow levels are dropping a bit but any snow will
still be confined to the higher elevations. Trimmed back QPF a
bit, particularly over Vermont, as less rain has been falling
than forecast outside of the St. Lawrence Valley. Adjusted
temperatures to match observations but no significant changes
were made. Previous forecast follows....
A line of heavier precipitation is
currently moving across the forecast area from west to east. It
should leave Vermont by mid- morning and only a few showers
should remain behind it. Total liquid equivalent precipitation
will be under a quarter inch except in the mountains where
totals up to 0.4 inches are possible. Snow levels will be around
2500 ft so any accumulations will be limited to the highest
terrain. Behind the line of precipitation, lapse rates will
steepen and deep mixing will occur. This should cause a few
convective showers during the day. West to southwest flow will
limit orographic showers to the far northern Greens where there
will be some snow showers in the highest elevations. Highs in
the broad valleys will be in the upper 40s to around 50 but with
the steep lapse rates, highs in the mountains will only be a
few degrees above freezing. Any convection should dissipate
overnight but with temperatures dropping close to freezing, any
lingering showers could fall as snow anywhere. A very similar
setup will occur on Monday where more scattered convective
showers and orographic precipitation will occur, with the
orographic precipitation again mostly confined to the far
northern Greens. However, winds will begin to shift toward more
northwesterly later during the day and this should allow
orographic snow showers to fall father south on the Greens as
well. Flow should be unblocked so the orographic precipitation
should fall closer to the ridgetops or even on the lee sides or
the mountains. A shortwave will pivot through later in the day
on Monday and enhance the snow showers as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be decreasing
with upslope northwesterly flow continuing to favor isolated to
scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains into
Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the boundary with
cold air advection dropping lows into the teens for the Adirondacks
and 20s elsewhere Tuesday morning. Likewise, high temperatures will
be trending down as well, generally in the 30s a few degrees below
seasonal averages. With breezes conditions may feel comparatively
brisk to recent temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Longwave troughing settles over eastern
Canada with the North Country likely remaining towards the base of
the trough. A frontal system seems probable with most models
projecting passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. The continental nature
of the airmasses will largely preclude heavy precipitation, but a
few inches of snow above 2500ft seems reasonable while flow pattern
favors a quick moving system. With projected zonal flow south of the
region, and position of the longwave trough, conditions should
remain unsettled through the end of the week into the weekend. Model
consensus favors colder than average temperatures for Thursday with
highs struggling to reach 32 degrees. The rest of the extended
forecast will feature near/slightly below average temperatures
and periods of lower elevation rain showers and high elevation
snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 12Z Monday... Steady rain will move out of the region
by mid-morning and and there will only be a few scattered
showers for the rest of the day. These showers could be locally
heavy enough to briefly reduce visibilities. Snow could mix
into these showers and reduce visibilities farther at SLK.
Ceilings have mostly bottomed out and will begin to quickly
rise by mid-morning as deep mixing will occur. Ceilings should
therefore rise to VFR at all terminals by afternoon. Any LLWS
threat will subsequently end as stronger winds aloft mix down to
the surface. Winds will shift from southwest to more westerly
during the day before switching back to southwest overnight.
Winds will also increase during the day and gusts up to 25 kts
are possible at any terminal. Winds will then gradually decrease
tonight.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHSN,
Scattered SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski