Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 231745
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
145 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
High pressure will bring dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy
skies and above normal temperatures today. An area of low
pressure will lift northwards towards the New England coastline
and bring increasing clouds with a chance for showers on Tuesday.
High pressure will build into the region later in the week
bringing summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Monday...The forecast remains in excellent
shape as we progress into the late morning hours as bountiful
sunshine rapidly warms the boundary layer. Temperatures continue
to rise into/through the 60s as of 1000 am with a few spots
already approaching the 70F mark. Current forecast high
temperatures solidly in the 70s to near 80F still looks right on
track with scattered fair weather cumulus mainly across the higher
terrain where light slope flows foster modest upward vertical
motions. Have a great day.
Previous discussion from 420 AM EDT Monday...
The upper level ridge tracks into the north country by mid
morning and dry air moves in aloft. Hires progs depict <30% for
the 1000- 500mb layer average as a subsidence inversion moves in
from the west. Expect plenty of sunshine for the forecast area
with 925mb temps warming to 18-19C leading to max temps in the
upper 70s with a few spot 80`s possible. With the ridge aloft and
high pressure building at the surface expect light north winds
throughout the afternoon and early evening.
Overnight tonight we slowly see an increase in clouds over southern
and eastern Vermont as a low pressure system brings a sight chance
for rain showers mainly over Windsor county in southern Vermont.
With clear skies still over northern New York expect temps to
radiate down to the upper 40s while staying in the low 50s in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Upper low off the eastern tip of Long
Island Tuesday morning will move northeast and reach eastern Maine
by Wednesday morning. This track should keep the bulk of
precipitation out of our area with a noticeable gradient of
precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at dry
conditions for the Saint Lawrence Valley...a slight chance for the
northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley...and chance for the
southern and eastern sections of Vermont. Can`t rule out the
possibility of a thunderstorm either. Much of this is already in
the forecast and have continued the idea. Showers taper off
Tuesday night as upper low moves well east of the area...but a
shortwave trough moves in from the west on Wednesday and thus
looking at another chance of showers for all areas along with a
slight chance for a thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures will be the
rule through the extended forecast Thursday through Sunday. In
fact...925 mb temperatures get a little above +20C which suggests
highs well into the 80s. West to southwest flow aloft will develop
and thus higher dew points are expected. With the increased
moisture and clouds/convection expected through the weekend...high
temperatures may be tempered just a bit Nevertheless will indicate
upper 70s to mid 80s for the weekend. Instability will also exist
and thus looking at the potential for some showers and
thunderstorms through much of the extended. Some of it will be
diurnally driven...thus not looking at any particular days being a
washout...but a threat for convection will exist most days.
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds variable
less than 10 kts through 00Z, then trending light thereafter.
After 15Z Tuesday, increasing moisture from the east/south will
bring sct/bkn VFR cigs in the 050-100 AGL range with an increasing
threat of a shower/isolated storm, especially at KMPV/KRUT
Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
18z Tue - 00z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon/early evening
showers and/or isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity generally
scattered in nature with long periods of VFR/dry weather. Brief
gusty winds and/or MVFR visibilities possible with any heavier