Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 201409 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1009 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD...DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1008 AM EDT SATURDAY...PRIMARY CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO OFFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT...WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN HOURS AND ACCORDINGLY LOWERED HIGHS IN THIS GENERAL AREA. STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A BREEZY SATURDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. OVERCAST SKIES THAT ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT STILL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE IMAGERY. A NARROW AXIS OF "CLEARING"/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTENDED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...FAR NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS. STRONG LOW- LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOWER MOISTURE AND THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL IDEA FOR TODAY. LATEST RAP 0-1KM RH PROGS SUGGEST OVERCAST WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT TODAY. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S. THAT CONTRASTS WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR ST. LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AS MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA...LIKELY REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING! PRECIP SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO FOR SOME...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY DRY...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT...BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY SUNDAY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ACROSS VT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE WESTWARD IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THEY`LL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND...NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST FEEL WE`LL SEE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN DACKS MONDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW/MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUBSEQUENTLY ENDING PRECIP. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 301 AM EDT SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (~25%) ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW- MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT SLK/RUT/MPV ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS DECK. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIFT TO VFR BY 15-16Z WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT PBG/SLK UNTIL LOW- LEVELS MIX OUT AFTER 14-15Z THIS MORNING. INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS AT ABOVE MENTIONED TAF SITES NEXT FEW HRS...WITH STRONGEST SHEAR BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT AGL. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRATUS/3-5SM BR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE... AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND RIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...LAHIFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.