Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 080934 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 434 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Some rain and snow showers will be over the north country today and tonight. Much colder air will move south from Canada tonight with high temperatures from Friday through Sunday only in the 20s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region on Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected. There will be chance for snow showers across the north country from Sunday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 434 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing lake effect snow band moving northeast from Lake Ontario across southeastern Saint Lawrence county at this time. Have maintained the lake effect snow advisory for there for today. 00Z BTV 4Km model has a good depiction of this in its forecast for today which also takes this band into southern Franklin county in northern New York. Expecting most of this lake effect snow band will be mainly south of route 3 in northern New York. Expecting 3 to 5 inches of snow across portions of southern Franklin county today, mainly south of route 3, but this is below advisory criteria. BTV 4 KM model moves this lake effect snow band south of the region by 20Z (3 PM) this afternoon, and keeps this band south of the region tonight. Current lake effect snow advisory runs until midnight tonight. However, if BTV 4 KM is correct, than the lake effect snow advisory could be cancelled late this afternoon. Expecting rain and snow showers to develop across the remainder of the region today. BTV 4 KM model shows a band of precipitation moving south from northern Vermont this afternoon. Have gone with mainly chance pops across the remainder of the region for today, except likely pops over portions of northern Vermont this afternoon. Colder air filters into the region tonight, so will continue with chance pops for snow showers tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 AM EST Thursday... 500mb trough with embedded vorticity will see continued chance for snow showers Friday, followed by slight ridging Friday night/early Saturday morning. Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic snow showers. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday, bringing an end to snow showers across the regions. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EST Thursday...Active pattern continues in the long term with multiple shortwave energy moving through the North Country. The first arrives Sunday with snow showers. This looks to be followed by a more significant system Monday. Currently 00Z guidance showers surface low moving from the Ohio River valley to the coast, mainly on Sunday night into Monday. Complicated forecast as surface high pressure resides over eastern Canada, keeping cooler air over the region in ESE/SE flow. Model guidance continues to diverge on solutions for the middle of next week with regard to large mid level low. Slightly below temperatures continue throughout the period. && .AVIATION /09Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions across the region with some low to mid clouds holding in at SLK. The VFR conditions still continue through the rest of the overnight hours before trending towards MVFR for northern New York and MPV. Expect snow showers to move into SLK between 10-12z tomorrow as a lake effect snow band will waffle north and south. Due to lack of exact timing I opted to prevail MVFR but I do anticipate periods of IFR in snow showers. The other additional TAF concern is for BTV and MPV as there will be the potential for a snow squall to develop during the afternoon on Thursday. I opted to mention this via a tempo group for the BTV taf between 15-18z. Light southerly winds at 05-10 knots overnight should give way to a southwesterly direction tomorrow with the St Lawrence Valley also seeing a gustier 10-20 knots in the afternoon. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...After 00z Friday snow showers become confined mainly to the mountains with ifr conditions lingering at mpv/slk through 12z Friday. Mvfr cigs linger at slk/mpv on Friday with vfr developing Friday night into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday afternoon with another widespread light snow event. This system will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ029. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Deal/Taber

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