Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232337 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 737 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall will continue across the area this evening before tapering off overnight. After a mainly dry Saturday a generally unsettled weather pattern returns for much of next week with daily chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures remain near seasonal norms for early summer. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 737 PM EDT Friday...Heavy rain threat has ended as bulk of precipitation continues to shift northeast out of the forecast area. Hence, have dropped the flash flood watch with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm still possible through the much of the night as a cold front over the Ottawa Valley sweeps through the region. Temps and dewpoints on track to fall into the 60s overnight, with areas of fog possible. Previous Discussion for Saturday and Saturday Night... By Saturday into Saturday night a brief period of drying can be expected for most areas as we lie between shortwave troughs on the southern edge of a dominant polar trough across central Canada. Additional weak low level troughing settling south toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the day should be rain-free for most areas. Highs similar to today (upper 70s to lower 80s), though humidity will be more tolerable as dewpoints lower back into the 50s over time. Lows Saturday night in the 50s to locally near 60 in milder valley locales.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Broad upper level trof and weak surface wave moving to the north of the international border will provide a chance for shower and a few thunderstorms once again on Sunday. Have increased rain chances over previous forecast based on the preponderance of available guidance. Instability is marginal, but sufficient for at least isolated thunder. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Great Lakes and northeast will continue to be under the influence of a broad upper level trough of low pressure through the middle of the week before more zonal flow returns to the region. Weak shortwaves will rotate around the trough providing the chance for showers and storms. Despite the flattening flow at the end of the week, a weak boundary laid out just north of the area will continue to provide convective chances at the end of the work week.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Changeable conditions through the period with a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR expected. Numerous showers/sct thunderstorms producing locally heavy downpours to continue through this evening. Heavier precipitation cores to drop vsbys to MVFR/IFR with MVFR cigs and low probabilities of gusty winds. Later tonight steadier showers/isolated storms gradually end west to east with passage of cold front. Vsbys generally lower in the 4-6sm range with patchy br/fg and MVFR/IFR stratus in the 02-12Z time frame. After 12Z conds improve to VFR. Winds generally light south to southwesterly 6-12 kts through the period. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA/TSRA...mainly north Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...JMG/Hanson

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