Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 280557 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1257 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STARTING A COLDER TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1257 AM EST SUNDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. WITH WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ABOUND AROUND THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY OR AT LEAST HOVER AROUND CURRENT READINGS. THE COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE, WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (<0.10" IN THE LARGER VALLEYS AND <0.25" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION STREAMS INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED ON SUNDAY AND HAVE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST EXACTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 249 PM EST SATURDAY...SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH WESTERLY...GENERALLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER CP AIRMASS. MEAN 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON TUESDAY...GRADUALLY WARMING BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES. THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST LAKE RESPONSE AND EXPECT PERIODIC FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE IMMEDIATE HIGHER GREEN MTN PEAKS IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...ESP ON THURSDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS/BACKS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SFC TROUGH. A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NRN NY SNOWBELTS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY WRITE HOME ABOUT. MAINLY DRY IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AS H5 POLAR TROUGH REORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT GENERAL MODEL IDEA AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO TAKE A TRACK ATOP OR NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL LIGHT SNOWS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO TRANSITION TO MIXED PCPN AND THEN MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON DURING SATURDAY. GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE WILL BROADBRUSH WITH 40-60% PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN AT THIS POINT OFFERING SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE ARRIVAL OF 40-50 KT PRE-FRONTAL JET IN THE 020-050 AGL LAYER WITH ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED TURBULENCE. KBTV/KMSS/KSLK ALREADY MIXING THESE WINDS WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. MORE LIMITED MIXING AT KPBG/KMPV/KRUT WHERE LESS GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED, AND THEREFORE MORE THREAT FOR LLWS AROUND 40-45 KTS. ALSO SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AFTER 12Z THIS COLD FRONT CLEARS EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUSTY THROUGH MIDDAY THEN GRADUALLY ABATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS THE COLD FRONT, WITH VFR/MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME SCT -SHRASN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KSLK...TRENDING DRY ELSEWHERE IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF BREAK IN OVC. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS TO PREVAIL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILDING 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE. AS A SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHES LAKE CHAMPLAIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WL INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS 1000 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER. THESE WINDS WL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...KGM/SLW MARINE...TABER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.