Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240531 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS 5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK AROUND 04Z/25TH. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. 00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

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