Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292316 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 716 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH. ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING. DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX. 12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO

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