Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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567 FXUS61 KBTV 292324 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 724 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the north country on Tuesday. A cold front will move south from Canada on Wednesday and will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the north country on Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure over Canada and the western Great Lakes on Thursday will build slowly east and will be over the north country from Thursday through Labor Day, with fair and dry weather expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 PM EDT Monday...Fair weather cumulus clouds are rapidly dissipating per visible satellite imagery at 2230Z with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. Expecting mainly clear skies overnight, and northwest winds will become light and variable as PBL stabilizes after sunset. Should see patchy dense radiational fog in the normally favored valleys within the northern Adirondacks and the valleys of central/ern VT. Lows temperatures will mainly be in the 50-55F range overnight, except in the 40s over the Adirondacks and portions of the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. On Tuesday, expecting any morning valley fog to burn off early, with mostly sunny skies expected throughout the balance of the morning. Expecting an increase in mid to upper level clouds from NW-SE across the North Country during the afternoon with a weak upper level wave approaching from southeastern Ontario. Temperatures will climb to the upper 70s to the lower 80s for highs Tuesday afternoon, as the ridge of high pressure crests over the region. 2-M dewpoints will remain pleasantly low, generally in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EDT Monday...Tuesday night will start dry with increasing clouds and moisture towards Wednesday morning. Chance for precipitation will also increase as surface trough approaches ahead of mid level trough with vort max south of James Bay by 12Z Wednesday. Some instability providing a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. Trough will dig into the eastern Great Lakes for the latter half of Wednesday into Wednesday night behind surface cold front that pushes southeast across the North Country. Expect most precip to exit south and east before 12Z Thursday as drier air filters in behind the cold front in NW low level flow. Temperatures around normal but a few degrees cooler Wednesday night in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 332 PM EDT Monday...Lingering clouds and possibly a few showers mainly across the Northeast Kingdom and areas near the international border as the main 500mb trough progresses over the North Country with every pieces of vorticity embedded in the flow move through the base of the trough. Come Thursday night, PWATs drop below 1 inch and North to Northwest flow takes over at the surface through mid levels. High pressure will build over the Great Lakes Friday shifting over the eastern Great Lakes/southwestern Quebec Saturday. This ridge at the surface and aloft will keep a potential tropical system originating in the Gulf of Mexico (currently Tropical Depression 9) to our south and east at least through Sunday. GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge on strength and position of ridge that far out, but another 500mb trough developing west of James Bay and digging into the Great Lakes looks to help keep the tropical system offshore. At this time, expect dry weather across the North Country Thursday night through Monday/Monday night. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler for the first few days of the period. Max temps Thursday range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with chilly nights expect Thursday night and Friday night. Min temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s the first night will be cooler about 5-10 degrees cooler as ridge of high pressure crests of the region and ideal radiational cooling results. Temperatures recover to near normal Sunday through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 00Z Wednesday...mainly VFR except VLIFR in fog expected at KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z. A ridge of high pressure will move east from the Great Lakes overnight and will crest over the region on Tuesday. Expecting some areas of radiation fog to develop in the usual fog prone valleys of eastern and northeast Vermont, as well as the valleys of the Adirondacks. Any fog should burn off by 13Z Tuesday. Expecting surface winds after 00z Tuesday to be nearly calm or light and variable. Expecting increasing middle to high clouds across the region after 14Z Tuesday in addition to some cumulus clouds mainly over the mountains. Outlook 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...VFR conditions expected through 12Z Wednesday. A cold front moving south from Canada on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region with some areas of MVFR and IFR possible. Expecting mainly VFR conditions from 06Z Thursday through Sunday, as a ridge of high pressure over the western Great Lakes and Canada builds slowly east into the region through the period.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/Sisson

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