Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281817 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO +9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10-12C. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT 5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK. 12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...LAHIFF

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