Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221103 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 703 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 703 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION RIGHT NOW AS LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SEEING ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT BTV WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRIZZLE AND PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING IFR BY AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTSWITH SOME G20 KT AT KMSS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS KBTV/KPBG/KMSS...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...SISSON HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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