Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230803 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Plenty of clouds will persist overnight along with some areas of fog. Otherwise...a complex storm system will spread a wintry mix of snow...sleet...and freezing rain across the North Country on Monday Night into Tuesday. A plowable snow and sleet accumulation is expected...with still some uncertainty on exact amounts. Also... some ice accumulation is likely...especially central and eastern Vermont. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1103 PM EST Sunday...Just some fine tuning to the forecast with a few light rain or snow showers possible overnight across south central Vermont. Otherwise plenty of clouds...some patchy fog...and gusty downslope winds along the west slopes of the southern Green Mountains. Previous Discussion... Little change is anticipated on Monday with highs mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s most locations. Expect northeast winds at 10 to 20 knots across the Saint Lawrence Valley with some higher gusts possible near kmss. Models have trended slower with precip arrival time associated with our next complex system...so have chance pops central/southern areas after 21z. Any precip will be light and under 0.05 through 00z Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 303 AM EST Monday...Stacked closed low pressure system off the southern coast of Long Island will gradually move north and east as associated trough and vorticity continues to affect the North Country Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Colder air over Northern NY will result in mostly snow showers while eastern VT will continue to have warm layer aloft resulting in sleet or snow/sleet mix Tuesday night. Expect colder air to filter in on W to NW flow Wednesday morning as the surface low moves toward Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. Lingering upslope snow possible before ridging aloft provides a break in precip most of Wednesday. Snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches possible, with higher amounts in the mtns possible. Temperatures in the 20s Tuesday night will warm into the 30s on Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 303 AM EST Monday...Late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, another area of surface low pressure will bring precipitation to the North Country. This low will be associated with 500mb shortwave with bulk of energy and moisture being to our south and east. Therefore, only expecting light rain and/or snow showers. Several more shortwaves move through the area as eastern North America remains under the influence of mid level trough. This will result in chance for snow showers throughout the remainder of the period. Temperatures will also trend cooler but remain above normal by about 5 degrees.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06z Tuesday...Expect MVFR to LIFR ceilings across the area through about 12z before lifting into the MVFR category for the remainder of the period. Visibilities will generally be VFR...but through 12z there will be periods of IFR and MVFR visibilities in fog. Eventually visibilities will begin to lower once again back into the MVFR category after 00z as some snow...sleet...and fog develop over the region. Of note will be strong downslope winds at KRUT after 04z where wind gusts to 35 knots will be possible from the southeast creating rather turbulent conditions through much of the period at KRUT. Elsewhere winds will eventually become more east and northeast on Monday into Monday night with some gustiness as values get into the 10 to 20 knot range. Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Expecting a wintry mix of precipitation to develop Monday evening and continue into Tuesday with the potential for moderate icing and major impacts to the aviation community. A mix of snow...sleet...and freezing rain is expected...with the heaviest precip occurring between 03z-15z Tuesday. Expect mvfr to ifr cigs/vis with periods of lifr vis in the heavier bursts of snow/sleet. Also...gusty southeast/east winds are likely at Rutland during this time period...with areas of wind shear and turbulence areawide associated with 925mb to 800mb winds of 50 to 60 knots. Improving conditions with lingering rain/snow showers on Weds into Thursday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Evenson/Taber

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