Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280606 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 206 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 131 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL INTO THE 50S...WITH MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 16-18C FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORMAL SPOTS. THE WARMING TREND AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 252 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS START OUT ON SUNDAY AT 12-18C RESPECTIVELY AND TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY TOPPING OUT MID- WEEK AT 15-22C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S MID- WEEK UNDER PARTIAL TO FULL SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT-18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON/KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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