Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180831 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow, mainly over southern and eastern VT, will be ending this evening. A westerly flow of air with near normal temperatures will follow with a few light snow showers through the end of the week along with a general warming trend going into the weekend. Our next storm system will arrive early next week with a mix of precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 656 PM EST Wednesday...The upper level trough is crossing through the region and the snow is slowly coming to an end across portions on the North Country. Expect that to continue with snow ending across Vermont in the next couple of hours. There will be some light lake effect across portions of the northern Adirondacks but accumulations should be minimal. Previous Discussion...The flow will become increasingly westerly with Low-level cold advection as 925mb temps fall to -10 or slightly cooler overnight. Steepening lapse rates with some light lake effect snow east and northeast of Lake Ontario tonight through tomorrow. Southern Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York could pick up a dusting out of the band by Thursday night. An upper level trof may enhance the lake effect snow showers or flurries elsewhere as it moves quickly through the region Thursday night. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through Thursday night with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the high single digits to teens tonight under partly clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 329 AM EST Thursday...Rather quiet for the short term with an upper level trough passing to the north of the CWA Friday night into Saturday. With that, just an increase in cloud cover along the international border as well as a slight chance of a snow shower, but not much else to speak of to start the weekend. Winds still look to be gusty during the day as southerly flow begins to pick up, but right now, it still looks to be sub- advisory level. Temperatures will to trend upwards with warm air advection with overnight lows in the 20s and upper teens in the eastern VT counties. Saturday highs look to be in the low 40s across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 329 AM EST Thursday...The second half of the weekend continues to look to be quiet with slightly low high temperatures for Sunday as flow shifts to the northwest. Outside of a shower or two in the higher terrain, the weekend looks to be pretty uneventful. This precedes a rather active early part of next week as fairly deep low will move across the Great Lakes and into Ontario sometime Tuesday. Models continue to disagree on timing, with the GFS still running about 12 hours ahead of the ECMWF, but the overall idea is the same, a secondary surface low develops along a cold front and rides up over our region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. With this secondary low, that means the warmer air at lower levels will have a harder time of really coming in force and scouring out the low level cold air. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a widespread mixed precipitation event, with a general light snow to start late on Monday, a good amount of sleet and perhaps areas of freezing rain in the middle, and ending as snow later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Have continued as the previous shift did and used a mix of the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF to help determine precipitation type. Still, this far out locking into particular location for sleet/freezing rain is a bit premature as the forecast will continue to change until we get closer to the event. Still, on the bright side, with this looking to be much cooler than last week`s event, hydro looks to be less of a concern but still bears monitoring. Beyond this system, Wednesday and beyond look rather quiet, though a snow shower or two are not out of the question. Look for highs in the long term in the 30s with Tuesday touching the lower 40s in the valleys and overnight lows in the 20s to teens.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Latest IR satellite imagery shows region of stratus clouds extending from Lake Ontario ewd across much of nrn NY and far nrn VT. Should see persistent MVFR ceilings at MSS/SLK in association with expected low cloud trends, and may see occasionally lower (IFR) conditions at SLK with wswly upslope flow conditions. Other TAF locations from the Champlain Valley ewd should generally remain VFR through the period, with occasional ceilings 3.5-5kft. Winds generally expected S-SW throughout the TAF period at 5-10kts. Some valley channeled flow vcnty of KMSS will yield slightly higher wind speeds, generally 10-15kts. A modest northern stream shortwave trough may bring a few passing snow showers Thursday night. Coverage generally expected to be limited, and have only carried VCSH group at KSLK after 02Z for now. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Deal/Sisson SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Banacos/Verasamy AVIATION...Banacos

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