Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290841 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 341 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP. EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MONDAY AND TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) BY 18Z MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS MODEL. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IS SLOWER THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND TAKES A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND WAS NOT USED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COMPROMISE GFS SOLUTION FOR MONDAY. THE GFS HINTS THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY SNOW ON MONDAY WOULD JUST BARELY MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON MONDAY...SO HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY. IF ECMWF MODEL IS RIGHT...THAN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WOULD REMAIN DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRIDAY EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING MAINLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-24Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY-12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. 12Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT. 00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH. 00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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