Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310512 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-15KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM

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