Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171128 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 728 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 728 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW THIS MORNING WITH AN UNOFFICIAL LOW OF 14 SO FAR...THE OLD RECORD WAS 17 SET BACK IN 2003. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND GET CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY... APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884). SITERECORD DATE KBTV 13F 1971 KMPV 17F 2003 KMSS 20F 2003 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS/NEILES CLIMATE...JMG

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