-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
206
FXUS61 KBTV 292337
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Noticeably warmer conditions are expected on Monday with
temperatures climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Several
disturbances and frontal boundaries will bring several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the North Country Monday night and
again on Tuesday with a few strong thunderstorms possible
Tuesday afternoon. Thereafter, temperatures will return to more
seasonal values with a few showers possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Recent visible satellite imagery shows
dry air finally eroding persistent stratocumulus. However,
we`ve largely stayed cooler than forecast thanks to cloud cover.
This increases confidence in a cooler, fog-filled evening once
the clouds dissipate. Forecast lows in our cold hollows will
likely range from the mid 40s to around 50s, while areas outside
Lake Champlain reach the 50s. Locations by Lake Champlain,
which has surface waters of about 64-69 degrees will remain in
the lower 60s. Monday won`t be like today. Skies will be clearer
while dry air remains overhead. This will result in efficient
heating into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Fortunately, dewpoints
will likely be in the mid 50s to lower 60s, which means it won`t
pack as much punch as the last heat event. Increasing southerly
flow Monday night will advect higher moisture, which will keep
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers and embedded
thunder will begin approaching from the west by daybreak on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...A cold front passes through on Tuesday and
brings a round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The feature
has trended to look a bit better defined, and have a slightly slower
passage, though there is still high model uncertainty. The most
likely scenario now seems to be that the front passes through the
region in the morning and early afternoon, before the peak of solar
heating. This type of scenario should limit the severe threat to
southern areas and even there, it would be on the low side.

There is some model support for a surface low to develop over the
Great Lakes Tuesday morning, something that would likely slow the
cold frontal passage later in the day and cause it to have stronger
dynamics. This scenario would bring a slightly higher severe threat,
and expand the area farther north.

While the region will already be in the warm sector at the time of
the frontal passage, with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s,
there will be a few important inhibiting factors. Mid-level lapse
rates will be relatively shallow and resemble a moist adiabatic
profile, there will likely be some clouds and showers around from a
prefrontal trough to prevent efficient destabilization, and much of
the guidance still struggles to bring a defined frontal passage with
ample surface convergence. Despite these inhibiting factors, there
will be plenty of shear and with the warm sector already in place,
it would probably not take much in the way of heating to cause a
stronger storm or two. Despite atmospheric conditions very favorable
for heavy rain, fast storm motion should prevent much of a flood
threat. The cooler and drier air gradually filters in Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...A deep trough pushes into the region for
the middle of the week, bringing cooler conditions. A shortwave
pivots around this feature on Thursday and brings a pocket of
anomalously cold air aloft. The combination of the synoptic forcing
and solar heating on Thursday looks to cause widespread shower
development. The showers should diminish Thursday evening as the
shortwave passes to the east and the diurnal heating ends. However,
ensemble guidance is now favoring a small doughnut hole of the
coldest temperatures aloft to move directly over the region Thursday
night into Friday morning. If this ends up being the case, the
cooling temperatures aloft and already steep lapse rates would
likely keep showers around Thursday night and into Friday morning.
Surface high pressure begins to build in on Friday and will bring an
end to the shower chances, but it may take until afternoon in
eastern areas. Dry weather should prevail through Saturday before
shower chances increase for Sunday. Temperatures during the period
look to be close to seasonable with relatively low dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 00Z TUESDAY...Stratocumulus clouds across the area
continue to thin across all sites with ceilings generally above
MVFR levels to 3000-5000 ft agl. EFK will bounce between
2500-3500 ft agl over the next hour or so, before also seeing
ceilings become prevailing VFR. Winds area wide are also
decreasing from light to calm which is expected to continue
through the next 12 hours. There is moderate to high confidence
in fog over the climatologically favored river valleys by
04Z to 06Z with 1/4SM to 1/2SM visibilities forecasted at
MPV/SLK and likely 2SM visibilities at RUT/EFK through 12Z.
Beyond 12Z, fog will dissipate with a few passing clouds and
winds at all TAF sites trending southerly at 5-10 knots. A few
gusts to near 15-20 knots is possible at PBG/BTV from channeling
in the Champlain Valley tomorrow afternoon, before abating by
22Z.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Danzig