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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS