Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270545 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 145 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The low pressure system that brought all the rain to the North Country over the past 24 to 36 hours continues to move eastward. This will allow showers to come to an end tonight...but plenty of cloud cover will exist. Areas of fog are expected to develop as well. Otherwise...the news is good with respect to the Memorial Day Weekend as dry weather is expected for Saturday and Sunday along with a warming trend. At this time it does look like showers will return to the area late Sunday night into Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 645 PM EDT Friday...Minor update to match current observational trends and to align pops more in tune with most recent HRRR/BTV 4km WRF output through the midnight hour or so. This continues to suggest a gradual tapering off of showers this evening, leaving a largely dry forecast later tonight. Did opt to confine threat of fog across mainly the western Dacks into the SLV overnight where lighter low level wind profiles exist and some partial clearing may arrive in the pre-dawn hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track and unchanged. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Upper low in the Gulf of Maine late this afternoon will continue to move eastward tonight. This will help to bring showers to an end later tonight...but based on satellite imagery see no reason why we do not stay cloudy all night. Plenty of low level moisture will exist and cannot rule out the development of some fog and have included in the forecast for later tonight...mainly after midnight. Lows tonight should be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 PM EDT Friday...The bottom line is we are looking at a warming and drying trend Saturday into Sunday. We should still see plenty of clouds around through mid-afternoon on Saturday before more noticeable clearing finally takes place. This will temper highs just a little with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected. Despite the clouds no precipitation is expected. The dry weather continues right into Sunday as upper ridge builds into the region. Looking for more sunshine than Saturday and even warmer temperatures with highs generally in the 70s. No precipitation is expected. The pattern will change Sunday night as upper trough moves toward the region. Clouds will be on the increase along with increasing chances for precipitation...especially after midnight. The clouds and precipitation in the southwest flow will help keep low temperatures up with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 328 PM EDT Friday...Unsettled period starts with a surface low pressure system over eastern Ontario bringing a frontal boundary through the North Country on Monday. Showers and possible thunderstorms will accompany this front along with cloudy skies. The surface low is associated with a 500mb closed low that will sit over the northern Great Lakes region through mid-week, with several areas of vorticity rotating about it. This will provide the North Country with several bouts of rain showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms. On Wednesday, most GFS and ECMWF show the 500mb low shifting east into Quebec and weakening. This will provide widespread precipitation with another chance for thunderstorms for portions of the North Country. A few more shortwave troughs will affect the area through the rest of the work week. In summary, there will be several chances for rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. There will be breaks in the showery activity and even breaks of sunshine from time to time. Seasonable temperatures expected for this time of year. Daytime max temperatures will generally stay in the 60s to low 70s and min temperatures will range from the 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday....Mix of conditions around the area overnight with stations ranging from VFR down to LIFR. KMSS is on the bottom end with LIFR vis/cig lasting until about 13Z before improving to VFR. KSLK/KMPV/KRUT are currently MVFR but could see periods of IFR through 13Z before also improving to VFR. KBTV/KPBG are both currently VFR but may experience some brief MVFR conditions before sunrise. Winds generally out of the NW but remaining light overnight. Wind speeds will pick up to 5-10 knots during the day. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Memorial Day: MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/MV

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