Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181949 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 249 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...DEEP-LAYER LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY FLOW IN PLACE AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY EXITS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. 12Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF 925-875MB INVERSION AND TRAPPED MOISTURE/SATURATED LAYER BELOW THAT LEVEL. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SO, LIKELY REMAINING CLOUDY ACROSS FAR WRN SECTIONS AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON 12Z NAM AND LOCAL 12Z BTV-WRF RUNS THAT LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY WANE TONIGHT AS SOME DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. THUS...WILL INDICATE DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A DUSTING TO 1" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STRATUS DECK...WILL TREND ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECENT BIAS-CORRECTION SUGGESTS LOWS 3-4DEG ABOVE 12Z NAM- MOS GUIDANCE...AND WILL TREND LOWS IN THAT DIRECTION (GENERALLY LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA). && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND 850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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