Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270508 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 108 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North Country right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High temperatures will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 108 AM EDT Friday...Threat for showers continues to decrease early this morning as forcing and instability remain limited. Have decreased precipitation chances as a result. Adjusted cloud cover to match current conditions and did the same with temperatures as cloud cover keeping temperatures up overnight. Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the 80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll fall just short in the upper 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies, ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week. Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a cold front moves through the region. High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of the week with generally dry conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through the period. There will be a low potential for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and will include some VCSH in the forecast. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
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&& .CLIMATE... Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016 thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was April 17, 2002. Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as follows: 5/27 5/28 BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978 St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff CLIMATE...KGM

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