Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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986 FXUS61 KBTV 081727 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 1227 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Some rain and snow showers will be over the north country today and tonight. Much colder air will move south from Canada tonight with high temperatures from Friday through Sunday only in the 20s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region on Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected. There will be chance for snow showers across the north country from Sunday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM Friday MORNING/... As of 1020 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing well established lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario extending northeast across southeast Saint Lawrence, southern Frankin and northern Essex counties in New York. Only changes were to lower POPs over far northern NY as band is slightly further south on radar. Band forecast to continue moving south today, but another area of snow/snow showers will likely develop across the remainder of the region today as a secondary cold front drops south. BTV 4 KM model shows a band of precipitation moving south from late this afternoon through this evening. Continued with mainly chance pops across the remainder of the region for today/tonight, except likely pops over portions of northern Vermont this afternoon. As colder and drier air filters into the region tonight, snow showers should gradually diminish but will continue with chance pops for snow showers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 AM EST Thursday... 500mb trough with embedded vorticity will see continued chance for snow showers Friday, followed by slight ridging Friday night/early Saturday morning. Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic snow showers. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday, bringing an end to snow showers across the regions. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EST Thursday...Active pattern continues in the long term with multiple shortwave energy moving through the North Country. The first arrives Sunday with snow showers. This looks to be followed by a more significant system Monday. Currently 00Z guidance showers surface low moving from the Ohio River valley to the coast, mainly on Sunday night into Monday. Complicated forecast as surface high pressure resides over eastern Canada, keeping cooler air over the region in ESE/SE flow. Model guidance continues to diverge on solutions for the middle of next week with regard to large mid level low. Slightly below temperatures continue throughout the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... As an upper level trough moves into the region, the combination of cyclonic flow, upslope and lake-effect activity will allow for snow showers over the region for this afternoon into tonight. The most persistent snow showers will be near SLK/MPV, which will allow for IFR conditions for much of the the time by late this afternoon and through tonight. Some improvement back to MVFR conditions looks to occur at some point later on Friday morning. Cannot rule out some brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions at MSS/BTV/PBG/RUT through this afternoon and into early this evening within passing snow showers and/or lower stratocu clouds, but flying conditions generally will be VFR for much of the time with just ovc cigs at 3500-6000 ft. It looks mainly VFR tonight into tomorrow, although a few passing light snow showers or flurries are certainly possible. Winds will continue to be W-NW at 10-15 kts. A few higher gusts will be possible from time to time, especially for the higher terrain terminals. Winds will diminish slightly overnight, but will increase back to near 15 kts on Friday. Outlook 18Z Friday through Monday... Mvfr cigs linger at slk/mpv on Friday afternoon with vfr developing Friday night into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday afternoon with another widespread light snow event. This system will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ029. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/SND SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...FRUGIS

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