Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 312330 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 730 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS AND FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WERE MADE. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 307 PM EDT MONDAY... AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE CLEAR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS 60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR 00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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