Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192330 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 630 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front and associated upper level disturbance will move southward from southern Quebec across Vermont and northern New York overnight. This system will usher in colder air, along with a few flurries, mainly across the northern mountains. High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes providing more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions for Monday and Monday night. Calm winds and clear skies should make Monday night the coldest of the week, with overnight lows in the single digits and low teens. A quick moving low pressure system will bring a period of rain and localized mixed precipitation to the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Mild temperatures are then expected for the remainder of the week. The potential exists for widespread precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, and breezy conditions with low pressure passing to our west Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 630 PM EST Sunday...Minor adjustments needed to the previous forecast this evening, mainly to match up with current observational trends. Still fairly warm out there with a lot of locations hovering in the low/mid 40s and with clouds thickening and winds keeping up it`ll take a little longer to drop below 40. Frontal boundary dropping southward through the international border this hour has produced some weak radar returns on upstream Canadian radar but it`s very spotty. Adjusted precip chances down a bit and mentioned more of an isolated/scattered nature to it which will likely be in the form of sprinkles through midnight, with maybe some flurries and/or light snow showers across the highest terrain thereafter. Little to no snow accumulation is expected with early morning lows still on track to be in the low/mid 20s. Have a good evening. Previous Discussion...Another mild mid-February day across the North Country with many locations reaching the upr 40s to lower 50s earlier this afternoon. We`ve seen variably cloudy conditions, associated with a northern stream trough and mid- level height falls which are ongoing along the intl border. That said, the best deep- layer convergence is focused across nrn ME with a lead vort max, and we are mainly left with the weak frontal boundary across srn Quebec, which will settle into our region overnight. Some weak reflectivity returns have been noted along the frontal boundary per McGill and Franktown radars in Quebec and Ontario, respectively, and high-res models show that activity across mainly our higher terrain areas between 00-06Z Monday. Based on upstream trends and absence of deeper forcing mechanisms, only expecting a few hundreths liquid equiv. for the higher summits tonight, and kept wording as flurries, with a passing valley sprinkle also possible. NW-N winds will continue at 10-12mph overnight, and increasing low-level CAA will allow early morning lows to reach the low-mid 20s in most areas. Monday and Monday night will feature relatively tranquil weather as sfc high pressure builds across from the northern Great Lakes and northern Ontario. Anticipate increasingly sunny conditions by Monday aftn with highs in the low-mid 30s. Winds will remain northerly around 10 mph. It appears we`ll have good radiational cooling conditions much of Monday night, likely yielding our coldest temperatures of the week. May see some cirrus moving in from the west toward daybreak, but light winds and dry deep- layer conditions should yield lows 10-15F in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and in the single digits elsewhere. May see a few readings below zero across far ern/nern VT, including around Island Pond, Vermont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 336 PM EST Sunday...Tuesday begins with a full latitude ridge from northern Quebec all the way south to FL associated with high pressure along the east coast of North America. A fast moving warm frontal system and short wave energy in the westerly flow aloft along with narrow and weakening ribbon of high and mid level moisture will produce a narrow axis of rain/snow/mix of light precipitation Tue afternoon and night. Thermal profiles still showing mostly rain in the valleys but a mix of precipitation possible in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains east. QFP will be one to two tenths at best with some downslope shadowing likely here in the Champlain Valley associated with 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots. Best chance of a coating of wet snow would be northern Greens and NEK Tues eve. With clouds thickening rapidly on Tue expect high temps mainly in the 30s after a chilly start. Weak upper level disturbances in the fast westerly flow aloft and some mid and high level clouds persist Wed and Wed night as a mild surface flow continues from the south and southwest. 925mb temps warm between 2-5 deg C by Wed...supporting highs well into the 40s to around 50 with lows Wed night in the lower to mid 30s. More snow melt looks likely based on winds and temps Wed with rises on local streams and rivers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 336 PM EST Sunday...The much above normal temp trend continues late week into the weekend with developing eastern CONUS mid/upper level ridging. Next main storm system still looks like it will come Friday into Saturday with a primary low pressure system tracking to our north and west of our region. On Thu a weak short wave moves through the northern CWA with some warm moist advection ahead of a weak cold front which passes from north to south late in the day or Thu eve. Highest chances for precipitation will be in the north and mainly in the form of light rain showers. High temperatures again well into the 40s to around 50 with 925-mb temps of 3-7C north to south but cooling below 0C Thu night into Friday a.m. Rising 500mb heights forecast along with primary low pressure tracking north and west of our region through the Great Lakes Friday through Saturday. Models still showing the potential for a secondary triple point low along the NE coast which means we never really get too warm. Details continue a bit murky but it looks like we`ll be affected first by a warm front later Fri/Fri night and cold occluded front Sat before things quiet down on Sunday as the storm exits the region. Still too early to determine any details of how much precipitation and temperatures. Right now it appears that a mix of precip may fall with the warm front on Friday followed by mainly windy and mild with rain showers on Saturday, before changing back to snow showers Sat night. Way too early to determine overall threat and potential impacts. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Mainly BKN/OVC VFR cigs in the 035-060 AGL range overnight with passage of weak cold front. A stray sprinkle or flurry will be possible along frontal boundary in the 00-04Z time frame. Exception at KSLK where occasional MVFR in the 025 AGL range is expected overnight. Skies trend mainly SKC at KMSS after 06Z, and other terminals in the 12-18Z time frame. Winds generally west/northwesterly 5 to 10 knots overnight, trending north/northwesterly after 12Z Monday. Outlook 00Z Tuesday through Friday... 00Z Tuesday through 21Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure. 21Z Tuesday through 03Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in showers/light mixed precipitation with warm frontal passage. 03Z Wednesday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure. Will see a warm front approaching from the SW later Friday with increasing clouds and chances for MVFR rainfall per current indications late in the day. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Banacos/JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.