Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211143 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 743 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 700 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. IT WILL BE PRETTY CLOUDY THOUGH...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITIES MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA...THOUGH AIRMASS IS MAINLY TOO DRY FOR ANY OF THIS TO REACH THE GROUND. CLOSEST OB THAT HAS HAD RAIN IS OTTAWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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