Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251944 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 344 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cool, moist southeast flow will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday, causing a sharp temperature gradieent across the region. Highs east of the Greens will be in the 30s and 40s while highs in northwestern areas will reach close to 60. Some freezing drizzle is possible east of teh Greens Tuesday night. There is the potential for accumulating snow in Vermont later in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Monday...It is currently a bluebird day and the clear skies will continue into tonight. Some high clouds from an offshore low will continue to move across eastern Vermont but they will move out to the east as the night progresses. Light southeasterly flow will begin to develop overnight and keep temperatures higher than last night, with forecast lows generally in the teens and 20s. Areas east of the Greens may be able to decouple well and with a deep snowpack, some places may locally fall into the single digits. The cool, moist southeast flow intensifies a bit through the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, causing a large temperature gradient across the area. It will cause clouds to overspread areas east of the Greens from southeast to northeast during the day. Highs should range from the upper 30s in parts of southeast Vermont to around 60 in the St. Lawrence Valley where the low clouds should not reach. Temperatures will depend significantly on how quickly the stratus deck moves and how far northwest it makes it. A faster progression would cause more areas to see high temperatures in the 40s while a slower progression would allow more areas to see high temperatures in the 50s. The layer of moisture deepens Tuesday night and it should cause some patchy drizzle to occur across Vermont, particularly east of the Greens. Temperatures should fall to around freezing in the higher elevations east of the Greens so some freezing drizzle is possible. Any accretion would be relatively light but it could be enough to slicken roadways and elevated surfaces.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Monday...A relatively dry DGZ coupled with sufficient low level moisture could lead to a few additional hours of freezing drizzle along the spine of the Green Mountains and possibly east of the Green Mountains Wednesday morning. Increasing deep layer moisture and warming temperatures will likely put an end to any freezing rain/drizzle potential by 10 AM Wednesday with impacts from freezing rain/drizzle being mitigated by the warming temperatures. Scattered to possibly numerous rain showers are expected much of the day on Wednesday with a series of low amplitude upper level disturbances tracking ahead of a frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts will generally be a quarter of an inch or less but warming temperatures and rainfall should accelerate snow melt across the region. We could see some sharp river rises through Wednesday but the modest rainfall amounts should keep rivers below bankful but will continue to be watched in coming days.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 335 PM EDT Monday...Following the rain showers on Wednesday, we could see a more potent storm system move into the area on Thursday. The jury is still out as run-to-run consistency of deterministic and global ensemble guidance is all over the place. However, the one noticeable trend in the 12Z guidance today and 00Z guidance last night is the prospect of a negatively tilted upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region. With the possibility of a coastal low forming near the coastal Carolina and tracking up the east coast, the upper low could have the potential to drive this system westward toward Vermont later in the day Thursday into Friday. This could yield snow, possibly over 6 inches or so, across eastern Vermont with a sharp east to west gradient. At the same time, this system could stay out to sea and have little to no impact in our weather. The 12Z guidance has almost completely shifted westward which is significant but we will need to see more before we are ready to jump on board with another late march snow system. Something to watch for sure! Weather through the weekended looks to remain unsettled as the longwave pattern begins to switch from being amplified to more zonal. This could usher in a few disturbances with light rain/snow showers possible depending on the time of day but likely nothing significant. We should see more seasonal temperatures this upcoming weekend but highs will generally be in the 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 12Z Tuesday... VFR conditions will persist this afternoon throughout the entire TAF period. A lower cloud deck will move into the region from the southeast during the day on Tuesday and it should reach MPV by Tuesday afternoon. This deck will likely cause ceilings to lower into the MVFR range sometime during the day Tuesday, but right now it looks it should be after TAF period. Winds should generally be light during the TAF period but they will become more consistently southeasterly during the day on Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance DZ, Chance FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Myskowski

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