Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020237 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING SINGLE DIGITS. SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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