Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040543 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 143 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 143 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE`RE LOOKING AT A CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS LIKELY ALREADY REALIZED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THERE. EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS TO BE ALONG THE INTL BORDER WHERE SOME CLEARING STILL EXISTS RIGHT NOW, WITH TEMPS ELSEWHERE REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE OVERCAST SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING. SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WILL MAINLY COME FROM CIGS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY TO LOWER TO MVFR BEING AT KSLK AND KRUT. AFTER 18Z, CIGS REMAIN LARGELY MVFR BUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AT KBTV AND KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KMSS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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