Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221738 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 138 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature across the region until at least the middle of next week with Jose staying southeast of New England. Dry weather and well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period with max temperatures approaching record values this weekend. Early morning fog in the favored locations is also possible most days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 134 PM EDT Friday...Models show the mid level high pressure ridge will remain anchored over the Great Lakes with the surface ridge extending across upstate NY into VT. The area should see a little more cloudiness late tonight into Saturday as debris from activity moving across Canada along the north side of the ridge spills into the region. Winds will generally be light and variable or light northerly through the forecast period. Dry weather and warm temperatures will be the rule with patchy morning fog in the usual places. Temperatures will continue above normal with lows mainly in the upper 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge builds into the region Saturday night into Sunday with full sunshine expected. It will definitely feel like summer with highs on Sunday in the 80s with a few larger valley locations pushing 90...and dew points in the 60s. Forecasted temperatures on Sunday suggests some new record high temperatures will be established. Atmosphere remains capped so feel convection is not likely to develop. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge remains over the area right through Monday and it looks like another day where some record highs could be established. 850 millibar temperatures will be maximized over the area on Monday which should contribute to high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal. In the Tuesday through Thursday time period we will start to see the upper ridge flatten a bit and this might increase the potential for some showers near the Canadian border on Tuesday and then potentially affecting the remainder of the area Wednesday into Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more southwest with time indicating the approach of an upper trough. At this time it appears Thursday may have the best chance for showers given the instability and increasing dynamic support. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the exception of overnight IFR/LIFR cig/vsby at KMPV. Northerly winds 5-10 kts during the day will diminish overnight. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Tue Sep 26 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NRR NEAR TERM...NRR SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...NRR CLIMATE...BTV

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