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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
057
FXUS61 KBTV 212319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over the North Country today will
dominate the regions weather through Monday with dry conditions
and above normal temperatures expected. The next chance for
widespread rainfall looks to be in the Tuesday through Wednesday
time period of next week as a slow moving trough of low
pressure impacts the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 705 PM EDT Saturday...GOES-16 IR shows some mid/upper
level clouds across the North Country this evening and these
clouds have slowed the rate of our hourly temps falling aft
sunset. However...as clearing develops from building ridge aloft
and surface high pres anchored over the mid atlantic...expect
temps to drop quickly after midnight. Overall lows will be
slightly warmer than last night...with higher dwpts and more mid
level clouds. Expecting lows mid 30s nek/slk to near 50f
champlain valley. Similar to last night...expect a very shallow
but strong low level thermal inversion to develop...as coldest
air sanks to the deeper/protected valleys and a midslope thermal
belt develops. All covered well in current forecast.

High pressure over much of the eastern seaboard this afternoon
will remain firmly in control of the North Country`s weather
through the next 36 hours as the center slowly shifts northeast
into the Canadian maritimes by Monday morning. Current satellite
imagery shows a good deal of cirrus streaming into the area
between the high and the slowly approaching low well to our
west, so while skies won`t be completely cloudy, they won`t be
completely clear. Don`t feel these clouds will have any impact
on temps, with the greater impact being increasing
south/southwesterly return flow on the backside of the high. The
result will be a slight warming trend to temps for tonight
through Sunday night. Lows tonight will widely range through the
40s with a few spot upper 30s possible in the typical colder
hollows, but Sunday night will be markedly warmer in the mid 40s
to mid 50s with the warmest values in the deeper valleys where
winds will be strongest. 925mb temps warm just a couple of
degrees tomorrow from todays values, so expect highs to range
from the low to mid 70s area-wide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Saturday...Upper level ridge remains over the
region for one more day on Monday. Will just see some high
clouds over the area for Monday with dry weather continuing.
Temperatures will once again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Monday night a cold front will approach the area as a low lifts
through the Great Lakes region. Rain should hold off till early
Tuesday morning, with bulk of rain moving in after 12z.
Temperatures will be warm Monday night with clouds and
precipitation moving into the area, generally mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet
and windy, followed by a brief cool down for the end of the
week. Still some notable differences in model data with respect
to the system for Tue and Wed, timing, speed of the trof
development and short waves moving through it. Deep moist
southerly flow will be in place across the North country, and
winds will be picking up Tue ahead and along the frontal
passage. Low pressure will move up through the eastern Great
Lakes and west of the region on Tue with a cold front moving
slowly eastward through the region through Tuesday night
providing the main lift for precipitation. Current thought is
that rainfall will range from around a quarter of an inch to
about an inch and a half with the highest totals over Vermont.
Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region Wednesday
night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to
showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof and
cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability showers
around into Thu. Looking at a continuation of much above
normal temperatures Tue in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a
bit cooler Wed and a bit more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even
to normal despite the clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail over the region
over the next 24 hours with a SCT-BKN thin cirrus deck moving
over the forecast area this afternoon through the overnight.
Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts varying in direction from
southwest to southeast.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to
service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff
EQUIPMENT...BTV