Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271730 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 130 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT NOT BEFORE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION LEADING TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 955 AM EDT FRIDAY...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE IS ENHANCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AND WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...DYNAMIC SUPPORT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY TO ENHANCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MOST AREAS IT WILL BE HARD FOR SNOW TO STICK FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. STILL LOOKING AT ONLY A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY BASED ON THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY...IT REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND WILL STILL BE TRYING TO HOLD ON THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DOES MOVE THE EAST WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLD DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT WILL CAUSE TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 1000FT. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...REGION IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER TROF STILL UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. OVC SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF OUR TERMINALS...WITH VARIABLE CEILING HEIGHTS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES. EXPECT ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 00Z...THEN VFR BY ABOUT 06Z. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER THAN VCSH AT SLK HAVE NOT MENTIONED IT AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES

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