Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220543 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA MIXED IN. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSLK. 18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...HANSON

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