Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 011737 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY. A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SURFACES. THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE REGION...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT- WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA AND UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE THICKNESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S TO L50S OVER NORTHERN NY AND UPSTATE VT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NORTHERN NY AND VT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL VT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI: VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.