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479
FXUS61 KBTV 091752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
152 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A relatively quiet day with a few showers along mountain ridges
today will give way to more numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. The potential for hit or miss rain will decrease heading
into the weekend, a warming trend will begin. Hotter conditions will
peak on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front, which will bring
conditions a little closer to normal after rounds of showers and
storms. Then a return to climatological afternoon pop up activity
will resume with seasonably warm conditions expected.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 151 PM EDT Wednesday...Broad troughiness currently overspreads
the eastern US. There`s a weak disturbance embedded within cyclonic
flow lifting up into our region. However, surface high pressure and
plenty of mid-level dry air is in place. The best the atmosphere can
offer today will be a few showers over the mountain tops. A mid-
level inversion should preclude thunder. Temperatures have been warm
in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and conditions marginally humid with
low to mid 60s dewpoints. Tonight, scattered cloud cover may inhibit
fog, but last night featured similar conditions and still managed
patchy fog. Surface dewpoints will continue to climb with very light
winds. Even though we`re a little removed from rain, conditions
appear favorable for fog development outside cloud cover. A
seasonably warm night in the upper 50s in sheltered hollows and
upper 60s across the broader valleys is expected, tonight.

On Thursday, the combination of an incoming surface trough or weak
closed low alongside building high pressure in the Canadian
Maritimes will result in surface confluence over Vermont and
northern New York. There`s a vigorous upper vort on our doorstep,
but it pivots away before intruding, such that we should observe
little in the way of height falls. Showers and thunderstorms should
be able to initialize late morning or early afternoon with little
capping to put a lid on convection. Early activity should focus
across eastern Vermont, and this appears to enhance a thermal
gradient across the the Champlain Valley. Eastern Vermont will
likely remain in the low to mid 70s while areas west warm into the
upper 70s to lower 80s. As lake breeze interactions initiate about
the same time as the incoming trough, broader activity will develop
mid-afternoon through the Champlain Valley. Finally, there will be
some showers and thunderstorms that track west from the St. Lawrence
Valley into northern New York that may also trigger some activity
along any outflow boundaries. Following sunset, showers will
decrease in coverage, but not end completely, while the base of the
upper trough passes overhead. HREF guidance is pinning the Northeast
Kingdom and parts of the southern Champlain Valley with at least a
10% chance of seeing more than 3 inches of rain in 6 hours. This
continues the theme of a marginal risk outlook for excessive rain.
We`ll have to monitor the potential closely, but PWATs are only
about 1.50". A sharp theta E ridge will be present across the
forecast area, but flow will fortunately increase as the day
progresses up to 20 knots. Ingredients are only marginally
conducive, but will watch closely since at least some are present.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 151 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will be quieter. Warm advection
in the mid-levels and dry air will keep activity at bay, although
not completely due to favorable positioning to the south of an upper
jet streak and marginal instability that should overcome the cap
later in the day along a remnant boundary across eastern Vermont.
Increasing thicknesses with the building ridge means we`re in for a
warming trend. Temperatures will rise close to 80 in eastern
Vermont, and generally will be lower 80s to mid 80s west of the
Greens. Any showers will conclude over Friday night with another
seasonably warm night in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday...Generally a low-impact but unsettled
weather pattern in the long- term is expected. Above average heat
from a short ridge Saturday into Sunday will help to drive heat
index values towards heat advisory criteria. Probabilities of
exceeding heat advisory conditions of 95 or higher will peak on
Sunday with the approach of a large scale frontal passage. Shower
and thunderstorm chances in the long term will be most likely Sunday
afternoon with only a marginal change in air mass behind the
boundary. As a result, seasonable heat and humidity looks to persist
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Aviation challenge will be areal
coverage of potential fog/low clouds at EFK/MPV and SLK. Current
GOES-19 vis satl imagery shows plenty of mid/upper level clouds
moving into our region, while some instability cumulus clouds
have developed over the terrain. High clouds could limit the
areal coverage of fog/br tonight. Have utilized tempo groups
between 08-12z at SLK/EFK to highlight a 30 to 40% confidence in
IFR or lower vis/cigs in fog/br. Meanwhile, sounding data at
MPV suggests the potential for IFR or lower stratus deck
developing on east/southeast flow, so have tempo MPV with
IFR/LIFR cigs and IFR vis between 08-12z. Outside of lower
cigs/vis on Thurs morning, mostly VFR conditions prevail at our
taf sites with light terrain or lake induced winds of 3 to 7
knots.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Likely TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Taber