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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS