Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171203 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 703 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 703 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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