Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292336 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 736 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...AND THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 734 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBS AND INCREASE MID LVL CLOUDS SOME ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THESE CLOUDS WL DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M/U 50S. PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING BUT THEN LEVEL OUT AS THE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST...AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTENSIFES ON SATURDAY AROUND THE AMPLIFYING SOUTHEAST RIDGE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE AND A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8" BY MORNING. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF VERMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOWS WON`T FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...AND NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ITS ADVANCEMENT TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFF TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MUGGY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 12000 FEET...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH FAIRLY ROBUST WIND FIELD (0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS)...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN GREATER INSTABILITY. THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OFF TO THE NORTH SO SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AGAIN NEAR 70 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT FRIDAY...NO BIG MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE FORECASTS AFTER REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE, WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A MOSTLY QUIET WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, JUST KEEP READING FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS: MONDAY: THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY MOVES EAST, AND IN IT`S WAKE MID- LEVEL DRYING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES IN. STILL A WARM ATMOSPHERE (850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 14-15C) AND WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, WE WILL GENERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS, PERHAPS A ROGUE T-STORM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20-40% POPS, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND, AND LOW 80S LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF IT ENDING UP EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE HAVE FEWER SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND. TUESDAY: ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN. 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR IN THE TIMING, SO ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING, VERMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN OUT OF VERMONT BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING AT THIS POINT, SO FAR IN THE FUTURE THINGS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE. SO ABOUT ALL I DID WAS TO SHOW A LITTLE BUMP UP IN POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON VS MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO, AND WITH NO CLOUDS WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 80S. HOWEVER WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER TIMING, I STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SO IT`S AROUND 80 FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOWER TO SPOT MID 80S FOR VERMONT. WEDNESDAY: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWEST. SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF FOR DAYS HAS BEEN SAYING THIS. THE GFS NOW SAYS IT TOO, BUT YESTERDAY SAID "WET". AS I DID YESTERDAY, I`M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EURO BECAUSE OF IT`S CONSISTENCY. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM (12-14C), BUT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE MAXIMUM WARMTH WHICH WILL BE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE DROPPING. THURSDAY & FRIDAY: AS BEEN THE CASE FOR DAYS, THE MODELS ARE DIVERGING AT THE DAY 6 MARK. I WILL STICK WITH THE EURO FOR IT`S BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS SAYS SHOWERS FOR LATE THURSDAY, WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. THE EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT`S REALLY FRIDAY WHERE A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION. SO WITH THAT, KEPT POPS BELOW 15% FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A TOKEN 20-25% FOR FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE EACH DAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT, SO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY TURN INTO MID 70S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT, THINGS ARE STILL NOT TOTALLY LOCKED IN. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THE EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAVE LIFTED. HAVE SCT-BKN CEILING MADE UP OF SHALLOW DAYTIME CUMULUS, BUT VFR WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 3500-4000FT. ANTICIPATE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD BE VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GUIDANCE INDICATES SLK AND MPV WILL BOTH FOG IN WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. THINK THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NY) AND STRENGTHENING WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. CAN`T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT IN THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT, SO THAT MEANS MPV COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS POINT THINK IT`S JUST AN MVFR SITUATION FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z. ON SATURDAY, VFR AREA WIDE WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 20KT THERE, LESS ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ON SATURDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET. SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FUNNELLING AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SET UP SO WINDS MAY NUDGE A BIT HIGHER 20 TO JUST SHY OF 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW WAVES OVER 4 FT MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH HALF OF THE OPEN LAKE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...TABER/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH MARINE...TEAM BTV

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