Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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057 FXUS61 KBTV 212319 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 719 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure over the North Country today will dominate the regions weather through Monday with dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected. The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow moving trough of low pressure impacts the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 705 PM EDT Saturday...GOES-16 IR shows some mid/upper level clouds across the North Country this evening and these clouds have slowed the rate of our hourly temps falling aft sunset. However...as clearing develops from building ridge aloft and surface high pres anchored over the mid atlantic...expect temps to drop quickly after midnight. Overall lows will be slightly warmer than last night...with higher dwpts and more mid level clouds. Expecting lows mid 30s nek/slk to near 50f champlain valley. Similar to last night...expect a very shallow but strong low level thermal inversion to develop...as coldest air sanks to the deeper/protected valleys and a midslope thermal belt develops. All covered well in current forecast. High pressure over much of the eastern seaboard this afternoon will remain firmly in control of the North Country`s weather through the next 36 hours as the center slowly shifts northeast into the Canadian maritimes by Monday morning. Current satellite imagery shows a good deal of cirrus streaming into the area between the high and the slowly approaching low well to our west, so while skies won`t be completely cloudy, they won`t be completely clear. Don`t feel these clouds will have any impact on temps, with the greater impact being increasing south/southwesterly return flow on the backside of the high. The result will be a slight warming trend to temps for tonight through Sunday night. Lows tonight will widely range through the 40s with a few spot upper 30s possible in the typical colder hollows, but Sunday night will be markedly warmer in the mid 40s to mid 50s with the warmest values in the deeper valleys where winds will be strongest. 925mb temps warm just a couple of degrees tomorrow from todays values, so expect highs to range from the low to mid 70s area-wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Saturday...Upper level ridge remains over the region for one more day on Monday. Will just see some high clouds over the area for Monday with dry weather continuing. Temperatures will once again reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday night a cold front will approach the area as a low lifts through the Great Lakes region. Rain should hold off till early Tuesday morning, with bulk of rain moving in after 12z. Temperatures will be warm Monday night with clouds and precipitation moving into the area, generally mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 445 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday and Wednesday will be wet and windy, followed by a brief cool down for the end of the week. Still some notable differences in model data with respect to the system for Tue and Wed, timing, speed of the trof development and short waves moving through it. Deep moist southerly flow will be in place across the North country, and winds will be picking up Tue ahead and along the frontal passage. Low pressure will move up through the eastern Great Lakes and west of the region on Tue with a cold front moving slowly eastward through the region through Tuesday night providing the main lift for precipitation. Current thought is that rainfall will range from around a quarter of an inch to about an inch and a half with the highest totals over Vermont. Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof and cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability showers around into Thu. Looking at a continuation of much above normal temperatures Tue in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a bit cooler Wed and a bit more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even to normal despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail over the region over the next 24 hours with a SCT-BKN thin cirrus deck moving over the forecast area this afternoon through the overnight. Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts varying in direction from southwest to southeast. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff EQUIPMENT...BTV

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