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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 260329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1022 PM EST SUNDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F
AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE
BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN
850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A
MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO
NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND
ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM
WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH
WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS
A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL
HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, CONTINUING TO FURTHER
LOWER AND THICKEN INTO MONDAY. MAJORITY OF CHANGE GROUPS INDICATED
ARE FOR WINDS, THOUGH I`VE INTRODUCED VCSH AT RUT AT 23Z AS LIGHT
SNOW MAY BEGIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TURN NORTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS INTO MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR
IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WGH