Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 101944 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 344 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SEVERE OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG PICTURE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRST ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE REGION PUSHES A WARM FRONT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EARLY ARRIVAL TIME...THINKING SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT MUCH OVERALL DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT SO THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS COMES TUESDAY THOUGH AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY SEVERE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKS EVENT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST AND UPPER TROUGH TRACKING OVERHEAD SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK SEASONAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAS BROUGHT FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS...AND WILL BRING SKC TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME MVFR BR AT MPV/SLK/RUT FROM 08-12Z. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. BUFKIT IS ALSO NOT INDICATING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...NEILES

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