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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 101944
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY
THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
FRIDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SEVERE OUTBREAK
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG PICTURE SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY MORNING SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FIRST ROUND
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE REGION PUSHES A WARM FRONT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE
MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EARLY ARRIVAL TIME...THINKING SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE DAY SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED. THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT MUCH OVERALL
DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT SO THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS COMES
TUESDAY THOUGH AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT RIGHT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY SEVERE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60-80 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS SIMILAR
TO THIS PAST WEEKS EVENT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING EAST AND UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING OVERHEAD SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK SEASONAL FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE
60S UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAS BROUGHT
FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS...AND WILL BRING SKC TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME MVFR BR AT MPV/SLK/RUT FROM
08-12Z. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. BUFKIT IS ALSO NOT INDICATING ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOCALIZED EARLY
MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES