Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201104 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 704 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Most areas will remain dry today and Friday...but there may be a few showers around each afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. More dry weather is expected on Saturday with temperatures right around seasonal normals. A pattern change will take place Sunday into Monday as an upper level trough of low pressure moves in and increases clouds as well as precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 704 AM EDT Thursday...Going forecast in good shape and no real big changes needed at this time. Just some minor tweaks to remaining fog and clouds this morning...which should continue to erode and be gone by mid-morning. Previous Discussion... Overall looking at a rather quiet period today through Friday afternoon. Area will be in west to northwest flow aloft with little in the way of any larger scale forcing. Thus will need to rely on mesoscale features such as terrain and in the case of this afternoon...a lake breeze on the west side of Lake Champlain. BTV4 has picked up on this idea and have mentioned a slight chance of showers or storms because of it. Any convection that does develop should be isolated in nature. It will also be pulse in nature with limited deep layer shear and instability. Dry weather is expected tonight and a better part of Friday. There will be a trough moving across eastern Canada and we should see some increase in dynamic support and combined with additional forcing from the higher terrain and sufficient instability...cannot rule out the possibility of some showers or storms...especially over the northern Adirondacks of New York and the northern third of Vermont. Again parameters for organized storms are weak and not expecting any strong or severe storms. High temperatures today and Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Overall idea from the previous forecast remains in good shape with the first half of the weekend looking generally dry as high pressure will be over the region for Friday night and Saturday, then shifting offshore Saturday night. As the high shifts offshore, warm air advection associated with an approaching upper trough to our west may introduce a few showers across our southern zones towards daybreak Sunday, but Saturday evening activities should be dry. Lows both nights will be right around normal for late July in the mid 50s mountains to low 60s in the deeper valleys. Saturday highs will also be close to normal in the mid 70s to low 80s, with relatively low/moderate humidity through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Just one system to really talk about in the extended period. Aforementioned upper trough digging into the Great Lakes early Sunday morning will bring some overrunning showers to the region late Sunday evening across our southern zones, and lift northward across the entire CWA Sunday night into Monday morning. Note a decent surge of PWATs to around 1.5 inches along the frontal zone, along with some weak surface to mid-level lapse rates, but not enough to be overly concerned for convection as the best forcing is to our south. Enough dynamics exist though to support the idea of a rumble of thunder so have kept in a slight chance, mainly across central/southern areas. Additional showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday as the upper level trough swings through, likely more isolated/scattered in nature, with the overall trend at the end of the period going towards drier conditions again as high pressure returns for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs will be seasonally cool in the low/mid 70s Monday and Tuesday, but warm closer to normal Wednesday in the mid/upper 70s. Lows close to normal through the period in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. The only exception will be some lingering fog and low clouds at KSLK and KMPV through about 14z. Once the fog ends the rest of the day and evening should be relatively quiet. There may be a few showers popping up in the afternoon...especially over eastern New York in response to the development of a lake breeze. This activity will drift east based on the flow pattern. Have mention of vicinity showers at KPBG...KBTV...and KRUT between 16z and 22z. Despite the potential for showers at these locations...VFR conditions are expected. Some low clouds and fog are likely to return after 06z tonight...especially at KMPV and KSLK. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson

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