Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 160804 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 404 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will be in control of the weather for the weekend and the first part of next week. Plenty of sunshine and much above normal temperatures are expected. By the middle of next week, Jose is forecast to be far off the coast of southern New England. At that time we could see some clouds and a chance of showers into eastern Vermont. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Warm and dry weather expected for the weekend with overnight fog once again. Surface and upper level ridging remain. Morning fog will be lifting by about 9 or 10 am. Then we`ll have a mostly sunny day with temperatures over 10 degrees above normal. Max temps will be in the lower 80s, a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Flow remains very light. Will have a few shallow afternoon cumulus only over the mountains. Another good set up for fog formation overnight, pretty much a repeat of the last couple nights. Then Sunday will be almost a carbon copy of Saturday, but a degree or so warmer even. Low and mid level flow will become more southerly, will have to consider possibility for a couple isolated showers with increase in low level moisture.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging at the surface and aloft will close out the weekend and start the work week. This will keep the North Country dry, but increasing easterly flow ahead of Jose, approaching from the south, combined with possible shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes region, will lead to increasing clouds and moisture. Mild temperatures expected with Sunday night mins in the mid 50s to low 60s and Monday maxes in the 70s to low 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...The aforementioned ridge will weaken and shift east with Jose continuing to move northward off the Atlantic seaboard. ECMWF and GFS in fairly good agreement on Jose`s track through the mid week - tracking over the 70-40 benchmark late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. This scenario would allow for showers to affect eastern and southern VT. Sometime on Wednesday, GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in track. GFS keeps Jose closer to the New England coast, while ECMWF begins to track more easterly. Both operational model runs bring an end to precip over the North Country the latter half of Wednesday. Ridging will build into the region, closing out the week with dry conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Another round of MVFR to IFR with fog and low ceilings overnight through 12-13z Saturday. Again most guidance available suggests nearly all TAF sites will see fog, even BTV. Once fog lifts, it will be VFR area wide. Again, very light surface winds everywhere for the period. Fog formation is expected once again Saturday night. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Patchy FG. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Neiles

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.