Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220226 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1026 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will push across the region tonight with scattered snow showers, though only minor accumulations are expected. Cold and blustery weather returns for Wednesday before temperatures begin to moderate from Thursday onward into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1026 PM EDT Tuesday...Late evening and overnight forecast remains in good shape. Arctic cold front remains northwest of the region at this time, and shower activity along the boundary has become more spotty over the past few hours as it swung into the Ottawa valley. Locally run 4km WRF is handling it very well, and shows the activity redeveloping as the front enters into the BTV CWA with some orographic enhancement along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Previous forecast has this covered well so really no changes needed there, but did adjust temps again slightly based on cooler observations from the Champlain Valley eastward. Have a good night. Previous Discussion...Well advertised arctic cold front to sweep through the area tonight with a brief period of scattered to perhaps numerous snow showers occurring along the boundary, especially across northern counties. BTV SNSQ perhaps still showing best threat of heavier shsn or squalls to occur in these areas as well, especially along the intl border where mesoscale output suggests formation of a small mesolow traversing west to east from near CYOW to CYSC in the 01-08Z time frame. Indeed a quick look at latest satellite imagery shows potential initiation of this feature immediately north of Georgian Bay as of 19Z. Thus prior forecasts of solid chance to likely pops (40-70%) across the north, and slight to low chance pops south still looks right on track. Given quick moving nature of this system only minor snowfall is expected with a dusting to perhaps an inch in the northern valleys and up to 2 inches in higher terrain. Negligible amounts expected south. Temperatures a bit tricky, holding relatively mild in the 30s before readings fall sharply into the teens/single digits late as front clears well east and south. This could create some areas of black ice where moisture lingers on area roads. Any lingering snow showers/flurries Wednesday morning to end by afternoon as strong arctic high pressure builds into the region. Skies should trend partly to mostly sunny in all areas by mid to late afternoon under persistent and gusty northwesterly flow into the 20 to 30 mph range. This will keep quite the chill in the air as daytime temperatures hold nearly steady in the 12 to 22 range. Blustery flow then gradually abates by Wednesday night as core of surface high nears. Generally clear skies are expected with chilly overnight lows in the positive/negative single digits...perhaps a spot reading near 10 above in warmest valley locales.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday....Ridge of surface high pressure crests over the region Thursday, shifting south and east into the Atlantic late Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring return SW flow which warmer air will filter into the North Country. 500mb heights will increase Thursday night, but clouds will increase as vorticity embedded in the midlevel flow will extend into the North Country late Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will reach the 20s to low 30s in Thursday, cooling about 10 degrees in the early part of Thursday night before warm air advection in SW flow begins a non-diurnal trend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...More active pattern in the long term as Friday will see the aforementioned mid level weak shortwave or vorticity bring chance of snow Friday morning. Warming throughout the day will transition snow into rain for most areas. Behind this shortwave, colder air filters in as winds shift NW Friday night. Surface high pressure will build in over James bay and extend southward into the North Country. This will provide a break in precip as warm front associated with low pressure system over midwest, remains south of the forecast area over the weekend. The surface ridge will shift north and east Sunday night with the low over the midwest traversing NW and bringing another chance for precipitation to the beginning of the work week. This system may bring a period of wintry mix but uncertainty remains due to differences in thermal profiles. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...A strong arctic cold front will move into the region overnight, mainly after 04Z Wednesday. Expecting some areas of IFR/MVFR in snow showers or local snow squalls, mainly after 04Z through 14Z Wedensday. Northwest surface wind gusts will increase to 20 to 30 knots after 06Z and continue through 00Z Thursday. Expecting conditions to become VFR across Vermont and northern New York by 18Z Wednesday. 00Z Thursday through Sunday... 00Z Thursday through 12Z Friday - VFR/high pressure. 12Z Friday through Sunday - VFR/MVFR/IFR in scattered rain/snow shower activity. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG/WGH

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