Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230003 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 803 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND 60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...WGH/HANSON MARINE...MUCCILLI

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