Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252329 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep moisture along with a weak wave of low pressure aloft will produce variable clouds along with the chance of a passing shower, mainly south tonight into Friday morning. Behind this system a return to dry, late summer warmth is expected for Friday afternoon into Saturday of the upcoming weekend. The next chance of showers will occur by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with another weak front, followed by more warm and dry weather for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 728 PM EDT Thursday...Current forecast of a mainly quiet very mild night on track so little change. Still some instability of 500-1000 j/kg still around this evening, especially nrn NY where an isolated shower not out of the question, but no real trigger evident. Northern area of showers and thunderstorms in western NY/Ontario show some signs of diminishing as cloud tops warm, while activity south of there into PA increasing all associated with a weak short wave trof. Can`t quite rule out a shower or thunderstorm but it looks like best chance would be in the 09-17Z period tomorrow morning as weak cold front approaches then pushes south and east of the region. Previous discussion...A rather uneventful, late summer night is expected across the area as variable clouds associated with a weak mid-level trough skirt across the area. Fairly deep subtropical moisture (PWATS to 1.75 inches) will remain in place, though without large-scale synoptic forcing or a front to produce low level convergence the coverage of showers looks scant at best, focused most across our southern zones overnight per latest model output and WV trends. Accordingly I`ve lowered pops into the slight to low chance range tonight with many areas remaining dry or seeing only a light sprinkle here and there. That said it will feel quite muggy as surface dewpoints will generally average in the 65 to 72 range under light winds, which won`t provide ideal sleeping conditions. Low temperatures similar to last night, mainly mid 60s to lower 70s. On Friday the weak mid-level trough will exit east with any morning showers/sprinkles ending by noon under gradually clearing skies east to west. Synoptic background flow remains southwesterly with neutral height falls indicative of little airmass change. Averaged model 925 mb thermal progs from 18-21Z are in the 19-22C range supporting late afternoon highs mainly from 80 to 86F with perhaps a few upper 80s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Despite the warmth dewpoints will be gradually lowering in the upper 50s to lower 60s by late afternoon so humidity levels will feel tolerable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...Fairly quiet as general ridging aloft and at the surface will be in firm control. Zero/Zilch/Zippo PoPs the entire period. Temperatures will continue to be above normal (both day and night). Some differences for Saturday temperatures between the GFS and NAM. NAM is a few degrees warmer because it is slightly faster in moving the ridge to our east and allowing a more west/southwest flow aloft to develop. Either way, the differences are only a few degrees, so I split the difference. Lots of upper 70s to lower 80s with some mid 80s in the southern valleys. Hopefully everyone can take advantage of the weather and enjoy it! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...12z guidance suite is in fairly good agreement. Really only 1 organized system for the period, and that will be an upper trough that will slide across the region late Sunday/early Monday. The flow pattern is progressive, so the showers will pass across the region fairly quickly. Minimal instability as well (especially since the timing looks to be overnight), so only a low chance of any thunderstorm. Looking at primarily rain showers. Other than that, the region will be in a west/northwest flow around a large ridge centered over the mid-west. With the trajectory of the flow, temperatures will remain above normal (a solid 4-7F degrees). Still some hints that a weak disturbance may zip down on that northwest flow mid week and perhaps spark a shower or two. However, 12z GFS and ECMWF differ in timing and details, so have only token (15-25%) chances of showers for mid-week. That means a much higher chance of mostly sunny and dry conditions. All-in-all, it`s fairly typical to have a stretch of this kind of weather at this point late in the summer. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 00Z Saturday...SCT/BKN VFR/MVFR cigs expected through 12Z Friday, then trending VFR all terminals with clearing skies. Weak mid-level energy will swing through the area into tonight but have kept all TAF sites dry as probability for precip too low to include. Increasing moisture in the low levels indicate fog potential, however cloud cover overnight and surface wind remaining around 5 kts should prevent fog formation. Followed previous forecaster trend to MVFR KSLK/KMPV, otherwise VFR overnight. Surface trough wind shift after 18z Friday with winds becoming northwest all taf sites. Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday... 00Z Saturday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR possible. 00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...JMG/Hanson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.