Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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914 FXUS61 KBTV 102322 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 622 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY EARLY MORNING. FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB- 850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1 POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCNL IFR IN SHSN OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME, AND AT KSLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE DISCRETELY IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR KSLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG/LAHIFF

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