Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311444 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY. HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY 60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS, AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT. SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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