Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 272013 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY, BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS, HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.