Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041755 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER 50S CPV. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED. REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF PAST FEW DAYS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S. WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60). && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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