Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221111 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 711 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE BORDER, SO I`M EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMING GUSTY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID- SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH 90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CIGS FROM FL 050-120 AGL EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-23 KTS, ABATING AFTER 00Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE 12-17Z TIME FRAME AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MON ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTORMS WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG WARM FRONT. BRIEF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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