Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 262029 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 429 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
An area of low pressure will move east from the eastern Great Lakes overnight tonight. Scattered to numerous showers are likely with scattered thunderstorms possible during the day Thursday. Some stronger storms could produce isolated gusty winds and small hail. As this front moves through, drier conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected Friday through this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...Thoughts on precip moving into St. Lawrence county this evening remain similar to earlier, with light rain and sprinkles around 21z with heavier rain moving in aft 01z. Models are in good agreement that an initial area of vorticity will move east into the Champlain valley around 03z. This energy will help to saturate the column...with additional dynamics and deeper moisture arriving over northern NY and spreading into VT between 03z-09z. Still cant rule out a isolated rumble of thunder over northern NY as models are indicating a pocket of weak elevated instability with showalter values near 0. Temperatures overnight across much of CWA should be in the mid 60s with slightly cooler temperatures over SE CWA as clouds should be later moving in.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...The initial swath of precip from the overnight hours should move southeast through the morning with clearing expected behind it. This should allow some heating during the late morning hours which could help initiate some afternoon convection as the surface boundary crosses the region during the afternoon. Model consensus varies on amount of instability on Thursday with GFS indicating 700-1000 J/kg while NAM/BTV4 show possibility of 1200-1600 J/kg. Due to expected clearing during morning hours, and 925 and 850 temps slightly warmer than today, along with 35kt 850mb jet, thinking at this time supports the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Areal coverage of this convection should be limited though due to deep column of dry air aloft. The primary threat with these storms will likely be gusty winds due to dry conditions aloft but small hail may be possible as well, which aligns well with SPC`s day 2 outlook of marginal. As the surface boundary moves southeast through the evening hours, low temperatures should be around 60 in the valleys and mid 50s in the mountains. Some low level moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion may linger into early Friday morning with some low stratus clouds. However, with deep column of dry air aloft and sufficient daytime mixing this moisture should be eroded by late morning/early afternoon, as ridge builds overhead. This will result in clearing skies and comfortable humidity values on Friday afternoon. With NW flow and marginal CAA, temperatures should top out slightly cooler than normal with highs in the mid 70s and upper 60s for the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...Our region will have dry weather extending from Friday through Monday. Surface and upper level ridges maintain the drier air mass over the area. Aforementioned upper level low will pass from Western Pennsylvania on Friday night eastward and off the New England coast by Saturday night. Precipitation should remain south of our forecast area. Surface high begins to slide eastward on Monday and chance for showers by afternoon and evening with a front approaching our area from Canada. Right now it looks like front won`t actually cross our area till later Tuesday afternoon towards the end of the extended period. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through at least 03Z/Thursday. Clouds continue to increase from the west today into this evening. Expect first round of showers after 00Z at KMSS and spreading eastward, to be light/sprinkles as drier low levels will take time to saturate. More prevalent showers expected at KMSS around 04Z...KSLK/06Z...the Champlain Valley after 06Z...KMPV and KRUT after 08Z. Conditions generally remain VFR though brief reductions in visibility to MVFR possible in steadier showers. Chance for showers continue into the late morning on Thursday before pushing east of the North Country. OVC skies expected to break up during the midday to afternoon hours. Winds out of the south this afternoon at 5-15kts will decrease a little bit overnight...remaining out of the south at 10kts or less. Drainage winds at KRUT expected to develop overnight and remain through the mid morning hours. Thursday wind direction generally out of the south to southwest increasing 5-10kts. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaRocca NEAR TERM...LaRocca SHORT TERM...LaRocca LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...KGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.