Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272315 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 715 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN MID 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING WHEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALOFT. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AND THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THAT 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT I ANTICIPATE TONIGHT BEING COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT BY A FEW DEGREES. THAT RESULTS IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY. TOMORROW REMAINS STATUS QUO WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY MID MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BUT COLDER OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...HANSON

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