Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220758 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 258 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the region later tonight and the first half of Wednesday, bringing rain and snow showers. The snow showers will be most prevalent over northern New York and the mountains. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 30s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1042 PM EST Tuesday...Overall forecast in good shape with some minor tweaks to temperatures east of the Greens in Vermont where decoupling has taken place and some cold pockets are developing. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track. Previous Discussion... Satellite and radar trends indicate a later onset to the deeper moisture and precipitation across the area tonight. Not expecting precipitation to reach the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York until about midnight and then eventually spreading east reaching the western half of Vermont by the morning commute time on Wednesday. Of note are the warmer surface temperatures and colder air aloft does not move in until after the cold front moves through the area Wednesday morning. Cooling does occur generally above 3000 feet and mountain locations will have the best chance for some minor snow accumulations with mainly rain below that. Later Wednesday morning any lingering orographically driven rain/snow showers in the valleys and snow showers in the higher terrain will gradually wind down during the afternoon. Expecting temperatures to hold fairly steady from around 30 in the Adirondacks to 40 in the valleys before falling again toward dark. Should be quiet Wednesday night as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from the west and height rise aloft. Still could be some pesky clouds hanging on in the mountains with low temps ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s depending upon cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...Upper low passing well north of the region will drag the tail end of a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday night with little overall impact outside of some lake effect snow showers across southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York and the higher elevations of northern Vermont. Minor snow accumulations are expected, generally less than an inch. By Friday morning, lake effect will have moved out of the area and dissipated as high pressure builds in with a partly sunny and seasonable end to the work week expected. Highs should run mainly in the 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...No big changes from the previous forecast thinking for the extended period with the main highlights being another weak frontal passage on the weekend, and another big warmup mid-week. High pressure over the eastern seaboard Friday night shifts east Saturday in advance of another low pressure system passing well north of the border over James Bay. Dry warm front moves through the North Country Friday night with mild temps in the 30s overnight warming into low/mid 40s Saturday before a cold front swings in Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show a real lack of deep moisture with this boundary as well, but there should be enough moisture in the low levels to produce a few scattered rain showers in the afternoon, and some upslope enhanced snow showers Saturday night and Sunday as the parent upper trough swings through. High pressure builds in once again for Monday with temps seasonably cool in the 30s for highs and teens/20s for lows. Monday night into Tuesday the high shifts offshore and the pressure gradient increases markedly across the region as strong low pressure developing out of the lee of the Rockies moves northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday`s end. Increasing south/southwesterly flow will bring another big warmup to the region Tuesday with temps firmly in the 40s to possibly low 50s in the deeper Valleys with no precipitation expected.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...Overall looking at increasing mid and high level clouds through about 10z...but ceilings will remain in the VFR category. After deeper moisture moves in ahead of a cold front and ceilings will lower into the MVFR and IFR categories for the remainder of the period. Visibilities will also lower into the MVFR category between 10z and 18z with rain and snow showers moving across the region. Once the precipitation ends...VFR visibilities are expected for the remainder of the period. South to southwest winds will prevail through about 12z...then a cold front moves in and winds shift to the west and northwest for the remainder of the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Sisson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson

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