Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262013 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL). FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012- 016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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