Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160030 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 830 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The windy and warm conditions will continue through the first part of the night tonight in advance of a slow moving cold front. Wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range can be expected across northern New York and 30 to 40 mph over the remainder of the area. A line of showers...and possibly a thunderstorm...will move across northern New York and may produce locally strong wind gusts. As the the showers move into Vermont this evening they will not be as strong...but will still be capable of producing rather gusty winds. The front moves east of the area after midnight tonight and winds will turn to the northwest and usher in noticeably colder air to start the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 657 PM EDT Sunday...A broken to solid line of showers with perhaps an embedded t-storm was moving across central NY. Several wind damage reports with this low-topped event in the central portion of this line but nothing in the northern end so far. Loss of daytime heating should halt any further development but it will likely retain some of its punch for the next few hours then quickly diminish. Updated grids for timing and all looks good for the moment but grids will likely need to be cleaned up a tad once activity moves through. Aftn Discussion...Forecast remains on track for windy and warm conditions to give way later tonight to colder air as cold front finally moves east of the area overnight. Before the cold front though we will still experience above normal temperatures and with tight pressure gradient and strong low level flow...breezy to windy conditions will continue and wind advisory remains in place for parts of northern New York as 40 to 50 mph wind gusts are expected ahead and behind the cold front. In addition...line of showers across western New York will move quickly eastward and will not take much to get stronger localized wind gusts with any of the showers. Another reason for the wind advisory as convective threat is low...but cannot completely rule it out and do have a slight chance of thunder this evening over northern New York. Front moves east of the area after midnight and winds turn to the northwest...taper off...and cold air advection really kicks in. Precipitation threat will be tied to the terrain in the northwest flow overnight and with colder air aloft moving in...higher terrain could see a few snow showers...however bulk of the precipitation will be east of the area. Magnitude of winds will also be gradually tapering off overnight. On Monday...cold air advection continues and we keep a lot of clouds in over the mountains and maybe a few mountain rain and snow showers...especially in the morning. Highs will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 423 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure builds in Monday night and colder and drier weather develop over the area. Winds taper off and with clearing skies and light winds winds...lows Monday night will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s. Places where the frost/freeze program remain in effect...the Champlain Valley for example...may need a frost advisory and the situation will continue to be monitored. Otherwise...dry weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night with high pressure over the area and main storm track remaining well north of the region...mainly across eastern Canada. High temperatures will rebound into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1212 PM EDT Sunday...Indian summer for the long term except some have yet to see a freeze/frost although upcoming Monday night may have changed that. Other question, given lack of non-summer weather is this just an extension of summer? The persistent and well advertised above normal pattern will continue in this period. Normal Highs/Lows should be 50s/30s respectively yet it looks like 60s and perhaps touching 70 during this stretch with primarily 40s at night. We start this period on Wed with zonal flow aloft primarily along and north of area and some ridging ahead of northern stream closed low and trof that will pass well to our north and bring a slight wind shift and perhaps a intl border/mtn sprinkle on Thu. Thereafter, SE CONUS Ridge dominates the flow with SW flow aloft and surface high across eastern seaboard with our are just on northern extent for SW return flow. Another northern stream system approaches Great Lakes late Sun/Sun ngt with a threat of showers but for us...perhaps some increasing clouds Sun aftn. Next weekend looks sunnier and perhaps warmer than this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 00Z Tuesday...Strong and gusty winds continue from the south and southwest through about 04z with gusts in the 30 to 40 knot range. A cold front will move across the area after 00z and winds will eventually become more west and northwest with time and start to taper off in speeds after 12z...but will still see gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range. Ceilings through the period will be in the VFR to MVFR categories. A line of showers is currently moving across the area and will be ending by about 03z. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Patchy FROST. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory continues through tonight with south winds in the 20 to 30 knot range and gusts to 35 knots. This will continue to create very choppy conditions...especially over the northern portions of the lake. Watch for a wind shift to the west and northwest after midnight tonight with winds gradually tapering off. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026-027-029>031-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/SLW SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...Evenson

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