Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021755 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 155 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AFTER A FOGGY START EARLY WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SOME DRYING ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF 500MB CLOSED LOW ALLOWING FOR THINNING OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 50S IN THESE AREAS, WHILE THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EASTERN VT REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC. EXPECT TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE U50S-L60S IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...M40S-M50S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FOG SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FALLING ANY LOWER...THUS MITIGATING THE FROST THREAT. EXPECT FOG AND LINGERING STRATUS TO ERODE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +6 TO +9C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT SEEING THAT WE WILL BE A FULL DAY REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION...EXPECT IT TO BE CONFINED TO THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO FOR SOME MOISTURE TO CREEP NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT REMAINING SUNNY NORTH. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 10-11C WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 323 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING DRY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS IN THE 00Z RUN CAME IN WITH A BIT MORE INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS FOR TIMING THAN I WOULD LIKE AT THIS POINT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE SOUTHERN SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THEN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE FALLING APART BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWN SOMETHING SIMILAR IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER. THIS LEADS TO A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA THE TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY. THE FORECAST AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW IS FOR TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY UNDER THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. CONCERNING THE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAINLY ALONG THE CONVERGENT ZONE WHERE THE FRONT MEETS UP WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF ENERGY. WITH 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO I`VE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED WORDING OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL HOLD BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL BE SUBJECT TO FUTURE MODEL RUNS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS A 50-60KT 500MB JET STEERS THE HIGH TO THE EAST. THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ISN`T MUCH CONSENSUS ON TIMING OR INTENSITY SO FOR THE TIME BEING I`LL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 40-50% CHANGE FOR SHOWERS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL REFINE THAT WINDOW AS THE MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH START OFF RIGHT AROUND CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 50S. THEN AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH TEMPS WILL DROP SOME 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S. WE WILL THEN REBOUND BACK TOWARDS CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH STATIONS AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN JUST NOW BECOMING VFR. ALL STATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT WE WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO MOSTLY CALM AFTER 03Z. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR FOG OVER STATUS WHICH WILL CREATE IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. BY MID TO LATE MORNING THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF LEADING VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z-14Z FOR THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 02-13Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...EVENSON/MV

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