Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 261335
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
935 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Showers will move across parts of the North Country...especially
Vermont this morning...as a cold front approaches from the west.
This feature will move east of the area by early afternoon...and
drier air will move in. Despite the precipitation this morning
high temperatures will still be above normal as sunshine develops
this afternoon. No precipitation is expected on Saturday with
temperatures slightly above seasonal normals and lower humidity
levels. The next chance for precipitation will come on Sunday as a
cold front moves in from the west.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 935 AM EDT Friday...Forecast in good shape as we progress
toward late morning. Did massage pops/wx/sky data slightly for
latest satellite/observational trends as clouds/rain showers pull
east, but essentially noise-level adjustments with the large-scale
idea of improving weather with seasonably warm temperatures today
still on track. Humidity levels still a bit on the uncomfortable
side as we heat up through noontime, but afternoon mixing on
developing west/northwesterly flow will allow dewpoints to drop
back into the upper 50s/lower 60s back later today which will feel
better. Have a great day.
Prior discussion from 641 AM EDT Friday...
Last of the showers should be clearing the Northern Adirondacks
by 8:00 am...but fairly widespread rain showers will continue
across most of Vermont through mid-morning before coming to an
end. Satellite imagery shows sharp clearing of the clouds across
the Saint Lawrence Valley and this will continue to move east
through the morning hours and should be east of the area by
midday. Cold front will move across the area later this morning
and drier air will work its way into the region on low level
westerly flow. Still looking at warmer temperatures aloft and with
increasing sunshine this afternoon...high temperatures will be in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.
For tonight...quiet weather is expected as high pressure builds into
the region. Dew points will be falling so it will not feel as muggy
as Friday morning...plus low temperatures will be about 10 degrees
cooler with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Latest trends show system for Sunday
arriving several hours earlier associated with fast westerly flow
aloft. Otherwise...Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with comfortable
temperatures and humidity values. I anticipate scattered fair weather
cumulus clouds to develop over the terrain as temperatures climb
into the mid 70s to lower 80s depending upon elevation. Light
north/northwest winds will shift to the south/southwest by
Saturday Night. On Sunday...first ribbon of enhanced 700 to 500mb
moisture associated with weak mid level warm air advection will
shift from southwest to northeast across our region. Expect maybe
a few sprinkles...as moisture will have tough time reaching the
ground...given dry profiles. Deeper moisture and better dynamics
arrive after 18z...along with weak surface boundary in the flow
aloft. This energy/moisture will produce additional scattered
showers on Sunday afternoon/evening with maybe a few rumbles of
thunder. Overall...instability is limited with CAPE values <500
J/kg and forcing is weak with energy getting sheared out in the
fast westerly flow aloft. I will continue to mention chance pops
with main focus over the mountains and after 18z Sunday. Progged
850mb temps warm to 16c ahead of boundary...but clouds may keep
values in the upper 70s to mid 80s...very similar to yesterday
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Overall models are in good agreement
with large scale pattern across our region for next week. This
features a developing trof across the western and eastern conus
with high amplified ridge in the middle. Temperatures will be
above normal to start...but trend below normal by late next
week...with even the 0C 850mb isotherm progged to make an
appearance off both the latest 00z ECMWF/GFS. Some people are
excited about the arrival of cooler weather and are looking
forward to the upcoming winter months already.
For Sunday Night into Monday will continue to mention chance pops
with narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture and short wave energy
diving across our region with surface boundary. A rumble or two of
thunder is possible...especially northern NY around 00z.
Otherwise...qpf will once again be light and generally <0.25 with
this system. Surface high pres and weak cold air advection
develops for Monday into Tuesday with general dry conditions and
slightly above normal temps. The lack of a deep trof and limited
cold air advection behind boundary...supports only minor changes
in our thermal profiles for early next week.
Toward the end of next week a series of short waves and associated
cold front will help to carve out a deeper mid/upper level trof
across the ne conus. This support a gradually cooling trend in the
temps...with chances for scattered showers. The developing
northwest upslope flow supports the highest pops over the
mountains...especially Thursday into Friday. Progged temps start
near 15c for Tuesday...but cool to 10c by Thursday and single
digits by 12z Friday with brisk northwest winds. I will mention
temps in the 80s Tuesday...70s by Thursday...and 60s by next
Friday...with lows gradually cooling into the upper 30s to lower
50s depending upon elevation and vicinity to the warmer lake
.AVIATION /14Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions at KMSS through the
entire period. Over the remainder of the area...expect VFR/MVFR
ceilings through 15z with periods of IFR ceilings. Sharp clearing
line between KMSS and KSLK will move east of the entire area after
15z and thus clear skies will develop all areas and VFR conditions
are expected for the remainder of the period. Visibilities will
generally be VFR...but showers across Vermont through mid-morning
will result in periods of MVFR visibilities...mainly through 15z.
A cold front will move across the area this morning and thus winds
will become west and northwest all areas between 15z and 18z.
Winds will taper off to light and variable after 00z.
Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...
12Z Saturday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure.
00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR
00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure.