Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 270620 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 220 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS STRIVING TO AFFECT NORTHERN NY AS BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST, SLOWING THE COOLING TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT DRIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. STILL LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PROBABILITIES THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRYING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MORE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH THE THE GFS LEANING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION THAN THE ECMWF. AFTER THAT BOTH MODELS LOOK FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL POPS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR NEXT WEEK. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS ON POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND KEEPS THINGS DRY FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY WHILE SLOWING AND DEVELOPING THAT SHORTWAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE OPENING IT BACK UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SUPERBLEND AGREES WITH THE GFS TIME LINE SO HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS STAYING DRY OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 NOT BEING OUT OF REACH. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR. IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/KGM SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.