Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290515 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 115 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR FROM CANADA. A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING UP WITH CLEARING SKIES ALREADING INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AROUND BY DAY BREAK. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW- MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK. 12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .MARINE... LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF MARINE...TABER

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