Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 172342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
A weak area of low pressure will move northeast up the Saint
Lawrence valley overnight. A secondary low pressure area will
form south of Long Island late tonight and will move slowly
eastward south of New England on Wednesday. A mix of snow,
sleet, freezing rain and rain will be over the north country
overnight through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will
slowly build into the north country on Thursday and will remain
over the region through this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 PM EST Tuesday...Composite radar loop showing
precipitation approaching the region at this time, but due to
dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere it will take a
while to reach the surface. Expecting a mix of snow, sleet,
freezing rain and rain across the region early tonight. Bufkit
forecast soundings suggesting mainly snow across most of Vermont
overnight. Temperatures above freezing at this time, but dew
points are in the 20s, so expecting evaporative cooling to take
place which will likely change any mixed precipitation over to
snow. However, a warmer nose of air will move into portions of
northern New York which will result in a period of mixed
precipitation. Still expecting a general 3 to 6 inches of snow
overnight and early Wednesday morning in the areas where the
winter weather advisory is in place, except for some mixed
precipitation over northern New York, with 2 to 4 inches of snow
Expecting precipitation to wind down Wednesday morning, with
some light rain or snow possible Wednesday afternoon. Have
lowered pops to slight chance for Wednesday night for some light
rain or snow showers possible.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 316 PM EST Tuesday...Generally improving conditions as
500mb shortwave exits east and ridge begins to build in over the
North Country. Lingering light showers focused over the high
terrain will diminish Thursday and Thursday night. Cooler air
will accompany high pressure with 925mb temperatures remaining
in the negative single digits to single digits above 0C. As the
500mb ridge crests over the region, gradually clearing skies
will result in min temperatures in the 20s to low 30s throughout
the period. Max temperatures will generally range from the mid
30s to low 40s Thursday and Friday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 316 PM EST Tuesday...A shortwave will attempt to move
into the 500mb ridge and produce a slight chance for
precipitation but reinforcing ridge at the surface and limited
moisture will likely lead to some clouds but not much precip
Saturday into Saturday night.
More significant system will develop a closed surface low
Sunday night around the Ohio River Valley with large southern
stream 500mb low. Moisture feeding from Carolina coast will
bring PWATs around 1 inch into the North Country as negatively
tilted 500mb trough moves NEwd. This will result in warm air
aloft and possible mixed precip moving into the North Country
from south to north late Monday. Models differ on track of
primary surface low, affecting how much warm air moves into the
region. But GFS and ECMWF agree on strong low level jet of
50-65kts late Monday through Tuesday.
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions will deteriorate rather
quickly from VFR to to MVFR/IFR as wintry mix moves into the
area in the form of snow/sleet as well as some freezing rain
for New York stations. Conditions will remain around MVFR
through then end of the period even after the precipitation
begins to taper off after 15Z.
Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with
KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone
exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though the
period with winds 05-15 knots.
00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR
00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure
will be over the region.
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ029-
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ028-