Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282334 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 734 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clearing skies tonight will give way to more clouds before sunrise as a cold front approaches the region. The front will produce another chance for showers Saturday, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday. More chances for rain enter the forecast early next week as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 733 PM EDT Friday...Previous forecast remains in excellent shape with a dry and mild night on tap. Only change made was to tweak temperature trends over the next few hours as most of Vermont still sits in the low/mid 70s as of the current hour, with northern New York mainly in the mid 60s. Previous Discussion...Clouds decreasing this afternoon behind the weak front. Surface dewpoints have dropped from the 50s into the 40s, while temperatures have rebounded into the 70s. Clear skies to persist for the first half of the night, then moisture advances into the region at the mid levels in advance of the next surface front. The forecast area is under the influence of 500mb westerly flow between high pressure centered off the mid atlantic coast and a trough over northern Quebec. Shortwave trough will sweep through southern Quebec to help move the surface front through. Dry forecast tonight, with southerly winds much of the night recovering from today`s cold front. Lows generally in the 50s in the Champlain valley and 40s elsewhere. The shortwave trough passes Saturday morning, with low level winds turning westerly and chance pops mainly central/southern portion of forecast area. Saturday the front pushes south from the Canadian border about mid day, and westerly winds turn northerly with cold air advection beginning. There will be time for mid day high temps to warm into the 60s before the cooldown begins.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 PM EDT Friday...Differences continue between the models on strength of cold air behind the front Saturday night and Sunday. However they have trended cooler overall which gives me better confidence in the cooler temperatures. Cool northerly flow behind Saturday`s front will persist Saturday night, and low temperatures will be mainly in the 30s. Some partial clearing in the dry post-frontal flow, however toward morning clouds increasing from west to east in advance of our next system. As flow turns southerly on Sunday surface warm front will be located east to west near the border. NAM is the outlier in breaking out light precipitation along this warm front Sunday morning, while the rest wait until Sunday afternoon/night to bring precip in west to east along the front. Will trend with the consensus but will need to keep an eye for earlier precip development. Higher QPF focus nearer the Canadian border at 1/2 to 3/4 inch, and less than a tenth in the south. For max temps on Sunday the NAM continues to be the cooler of the models, with 49 degrees at BTV. I couldn`t go that cold, but did user a cooler blend to undercut MAV guidance and give lower 50s in Champlain Valley and 40s north and higher elevations. Sunday night southerly flow returns as warm front lifts further north, and lows into the 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 402 PM EDT Friday...ECMWF and GFS models showing a rather unsettled period across the North Country with chances for rain showers just about every day. Have mostly stuck with superblend pops and guidance through the period. Monday forecast looks difficult with GFS and ECMWF models showing a warm front near the international border. The NAM model has this warm front a bit further to the south on Monday. Where ever this warm front set up, there is a potential for a big bust of max temperatures on Monday, with temperatures being either cooler or warmer than forecast. Thus, have stuck with superblend guidance at this time. A cold front will move through the region Monday night, bringing more rain showers to the region. The region will remain in cyclonic flow Tuesday and Wednesday from a low pressure area over southern Quebec, so will continue with a chance of rain showers on these days. Model guidance hinting at mostly dry weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Guidance hinting at a low pressure area moving northeast from the southeastern U.S. on Friday, with more rain showers moving into the region. On a personal note, this is my final shift as I will officially retire on May 1, after working for the past 37 years, 18 years here at BTV. I enjoyed working with many wonderful people over the years. This I will miss in retirement. In the words of the immortal Samuel A Branch, Good bye and Good luck, or as the late John McLaughlin would say "BYE BYE"!!!
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period with FEW-SCT mid/high clouds gradually increasing in coverage and lowering to 6-10kft by 12Z Saturday. Chance for some scattered shower activity Saturday mid-day/afternoon as a weak upper disturbance traverses the area, but expect any showers will be light and not restrict flight conditions. Light west/southwest winds overnight trend to northwest by mid-day Saturday with gusts up to 20kts after 18Z. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Occasional SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Hanson SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Lahiff

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