Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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436 FXUS61 KBTV 232038 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 338 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An active period of weather is expected starting today lasting through upcoming weekend with two systems providing the North Country with a wintry mix to rain type of scenario. First system impacts our region on this afternoon with the second on Sunday, as the trend of above normal temperatures continue. Minor ice accumulation will be seen in eastern and central Vermont this afternoon and could produce a few slick spots during the evening commute. Gusty southeast downslope winds along the Western Slopes are possible on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 338 PM EST Friday...Overall forecast remains in good shape for this evening and overnight as low pressure passing northeast through the Great Lakes drags a warm front through the region this evening, and the trailing cold front during the overnight. Overrunning precipitation took a bit longer to move into the region, which was a good thing as it allowed surface temps across much of the area to warm above freezing. Still seeing some pockets of freezing or slightly sub-freezing temps across portions of the eastern Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountain spine, where a mix of freezing rain, rain, and sleet continues to be possible this evening, but as surface temps continue to climb through the midnight hour we should see any mix change to plain rain by the day`s end. With this in mind, will keep current advisories in place, except for northern Franklin County in NY which we`ll cancel based on surface temps rising above freezing this hour. After midnight, cold front tracks into the forecast area from the northwest with precipitation generally diminishing but some upslope rain/snow showers will likely continue until dawn across the higher peaks with minimal snow accumulation expected. High pressure builds into the region by Saturday morning with morning clouds slowly decreasing to a partly sunny afternoon. Temps overnight don`t budge too much as cold air advection behind the front isn`t particularly strong so we`re looking at lows only in the low/mid 30s, which will set the stage for Saturday highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Temps do cool off Saturday night as skies briefly clear under high pressure, but after midnight clouds will increase again ahead of our next system for Sunday. More on that below.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 338 PM EST Friday...Precipitation will move into the North Country Sunday morning as a warm front/occluded front attempts to push into the Northeastern US. Cold air at the surface will be slow to erode out however and forecast soundings show thermal profiles that support a transition from snow to mixed precipitation to rain throughout Sunday morning. Throughout the morning hours, southwesterly geostrophic flow will increase between the parent low pressure system over the Great Lakes and the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This will advect in warmer temperatures along with enough Gulf moisture to support over a third of an inch of precipitation over the North Country. Meanwhile at the surface, an increasing pressure gradient will support strong easterly/southeasterly surface/900 mb winds that will flow perpendicular to the spine of the Green Mountains. Forecast soundings show an inversion setting up near/above mountain top, which will support mountain waves that will create strong gusty downsloping winds on the west side of the Green Mountains. Areas of northern New York north and west of the Adirondack Mountains will also see gusty winds Sunday morning. All said and done, gusts in excess of 40 mph look possible during the late morning and early afternoon. These winds will likely have an effect on the precipitation type and distribution, with downsloping areas warming and drying out faster than other places. In addition, ongoing precipitation in other areas will prevent some of the strongest winds from reaching the surface. All said and done, the precipitation and winds observed will be highly variable across the different topography of our forecast area. By mid afternoon Sunday, winds will slacken as the pressure gradient decreases. Rain will continue during the afternoon hours and taper off Sunday night after a cold front pushes east through the forecast area.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 338 PM EST Friday...By Monday, the persistent Bermuda High will start to weaken and flow will become more zonal through the week. We should see mostly quiet weather for the start of the work week with a surface high setting up to our south over the Mid Atlantic Coast. By midweek, we will see chances of light precipitation return as a weak low pressure system traverses through Ontario/Quebec to our north. Temperatures will remain above normal through the week with highs forecast generally in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Any waves that do track across the the forecast area during this timeframe will likely bring a mix of rain and snow as we remain in in a baroclinic transition zone with temperatures hovering within 10 degrees or so of freezing.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions across the region this afternoon will trend to a mix of IFR and MVFR as ceilings lower mainly after 00Z for the overnight hours. A brief period of mixed precipitation is possible this afternoon and early evening before precipitation type changes to all rain and is scattered through midnight, then isolated. Low clouds lift to VFR across the area after 12Z Saturday with northwest winds becoming gusty at 10-20kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite PL, Definite FZRA, Likely SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026- 034.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Lahiff

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