Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020851 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO +5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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