Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211432 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 932 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak disturbance and associated ribbon of mid level moisture will produce scattered light rain showers late in the day across northern New York. This threat of showers will spread into Vermont overnight...with a few pockets of light freezing rain possible in the deeper valleys. Very minimal ice accumulation if any is anticipated...with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s today. A big warming trend is expected for most of the week with more showers anticipated on Thursday Night into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 932 AM EST Tuesday...Based on current observations across the area...have adjusted dew points downward as dry air remains in place. And given upstream observations...it does not look like deeper moisture moves into the region until tonight. So this will make it harder to get any precipitation going during the day and have backed off on the precipitation threat for today and made it just for tonight. Tonight...soundings show deep dry layer between 925mb and 700mb becoming saturated as moisture advection occurs on south to southwest winds. Thinking temps fall early as some evaporational cooling occurs...but with clouds and developing southerly flow of 10 to 20 knots...especially cpv/slv temps hold mainly in the mid/upper 30s to near 40f most of the night. East of the greens still looking at some pockets of <0C temps in the protected valley with the potential for some spotty freezing rain. Given the marginal temps and scattered precip/very light qpf...not anticipating widespread coverage of freeze rain and very minor ice accumulation. If needed will handle with a sps. Wednesday...low to mid level warm air advection continues with progged 925mb to 850mb temps climbing between 2c and 4c. However...soundings especially the nam shows plenty of low level moisture trapped below thermal inversion between surface and 850mb. Is this overdone again or do we see lots of low clouds and limited sun on Weds...keeping our temps on the cooler side of guidance with some areas of light precip. Soundings show this moisture mixing out...especially during the afternoon hours as top of the mixed layer winds increase between 15 and 20 knots and drier air aloft is advected toward the surface. Will trend toward the warmer side of guidance and keep forecast mainly dry at this time...with highs mainly lower 40s northeast kingdom to near 50f cpv/slv and western dacks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 358 AM EST Tuesday...Thursday will see another low pressure system from the Great Lakes region pass to the north of the CWA. Light showers, mainly in the northern half of the forecast area, are expected with the system passes north of the border and into northern Maine. QPF is minimal with this system with the Adirondacks seeing a couple tenths of an inch, the Northern Vermont counties seeing around a tenth and the rest of the state seeing only a few hundreths of an inch. Southerly flow will continue to boost temps well above seasonal norms for Thursday with highs in the 50`s for the majority of the area and overnight lows in the mid to upper 30`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 358 AM EST Tuesday...Friday sees low pressure tracking north and west of our region from the Great Lakes Friday through early Sunday morning. Models are in general agreement of a warm front lifting through the region Friday afternoon/evening with precipitation ramping up through the day Saturday with the peak Saturday afternoon/evening just ahead of the passage of a cold front. Winds out ahead of the front could lead to gusty conditions and potential advisory level winds especially across the Champlain Valley as the 00Z GFS indicates 850mb winds to reach 65 knots Saturday afternoon. After frontal passage, rain will switch over to snow showers Saturday night with the strong cold air advection. Very warm temperatures are expected Saturday ahead of the cold frontal passage. Temperatures overall look to be in the 50s with the Champlain Valley pushing a record breaking 60. A sharp cold front will drop temps quickly back into the 20s Saturday night. Possible flash freeze issues are possible with temperatures dropping so sharply after a moderate rainfall. Moving into next week, more seasonable weather will return for Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 12z Wednesday...Clouds increase from west to east across our taf sites today with cigs trending toward mvfr conditions between 03z-06z tonight. Expecting a brief period of light rain...possibly mixed with a few pockets of freezing rain at mpv/slk. Winds increase from the south/southwest this afternoon at 5 to 15 knots with a few localized higher gusts. Soundings show plenty of low level moisture developing from snow melt and precip...especially at slk/mpv after 06z tonight...which may support some ifr cigs toward sunrise Weds. Have mention cigs between 1500 and 2000 feet and will monitor moisture trends. Outlook 12z Wednesday through Saturday... Challenging aviation forecast with regards to low level moisture and potential mvfr/ifr cigs weds into thursday. Thinking mostly vfr/mvfr with pockets of mvfr/ifr in our mountains sites. A warm front lifting from southwest to northeast on Friday will produce additional showers along with some enhanced southerly winds. The turning wind profiles and rapid increase in speed with height will cause some areas of turbulence and shear on Friday Night into Saturday. Widespread gusty southerly winds likely on Saturday with areas of rain showers...producing localized mvfr/ifr cigs/vis in the heavier elements. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Taber

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