Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262045 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT 03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO MONDAY`S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LOW.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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