Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240531 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Numerous showers, some with heavy rainfall, will be tapering off through the early morning hours. After a mainly dry Saturday a generally unsettled weather pattern returns for much of next week with daily chances for showers and a few storms. Temperatures remain near seasonal norms for early summer. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 110 AM EDT Saturday...Line of showers and occasional thunder from Highgate to Plattsburgh to Newcomb, moving east. Brief period of moderate rainfall with the line, but totals have been a quarter inch or less of additional rain. Updated pops this cycle with latest hi-res model data. Blended HRRR and RAP model reflectivity based pops which capture line of showers and occasional thunder and move it east during the predawn hours. Despite atmosphere still quite juiced and brief heavy rainfall rates, forward propagation of the line keeps heavier rain from lingering over one location, and flash flood threat remains low. Drier air on the doorstep of western St. Lawrence County, with upstream obs showing a westward shift of wind and dewpoints starting to drop into the upper 60s. Previous Discussion for Saturday and Saturday Night... By Saturday into Saturday night a brief period of drying can be expected for most areas as we lie between shortwave troughs on the southern edge of a dominant polar trough across central Canada. Additional weak low level troughing settling south toward the intl border during the afternoon may spark scattered showers/isolated storms across the far north, but most of the day should be rain-free for most areas. Highs similar to today (upper 70s to lower 80s), though humidity will be more tolerable as dewpoints lower back into the 50s over time. Lows Saturday night in the 50s to locally near 60 in milder valley locales. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Broad upper level trof and weak surface wave moving to the north of the international border will provide a chance for shower and a few thunderstorms once again on Sunday. Have increased rain chances over previous forecast based on the preponderance of available guidance. Instability is marginal, but sufficient for at least isolated thunder. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 359 PM EDT Friday...Great Lakes and northeast will continue to be under the influence of a broad upper level trough of low pressure through the middle of the week before more zonal flow returns to the region. Weak shortwaves will rotate around the trough providing the chance for showers and storms. Despite the flattening flow at the end of the week, a weak boundary laid out just north of the area will continue to provide convective chances at the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR/MVFR conditions will exist through 12z as plenty of moisture remains over the area. Scattered to numerous showers will move east across northeast New York and Vermont during this time period as well. Due to the showers and low level moisture...there will be periods of IFR conditions through 12z...but these conditions will not be widespread and should not last too long. Still enough wind at the surface to limit conditions falling any lower than IFR. After 12z improving conditions will take place as drier air moves in from the west. The trend toward VFR conditions will take place between 12z and 16z with all areas becoming VFR from 16z through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period. Watch for a wind shift south and southwest to west and northwest between 13z and 16z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff/Hanson SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...Evenson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.