Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270730 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonably warm weather will prevail across the region into Sunday as high pressure dominates the sensible weather pattern. The next chance for scattered showers will occur by later Sunday into Sunday evening as a weak front crosses the area. Behind this system a return to fair and dry weather is expected for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 102 AM EDT Saturday...Overall forecast in good shape with just some minor tweaks to sky cover based on mid level clouds moving into the northern third of the area. Otherwise no other changes needed at this time. Still looking at some fog developing during the early morning hours. Temperatures generally a blend of bias-corrected model output offering overnight lows in the 50s to near 60 and highs on Saturday from 78 to 85 or so under moderate humidity levels. Winds light. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...A strong mid/upper level ridge of high pres centered over VA will slowly break down as northern stream energy moves from the Great Lakes into the NE Conus. The flow around this area of high pres will advect pw values between 1.50 and 1.75 inches across our region ahead of a surface cold front. This available moisture...combined with modest upper level forcing from 5h vort will produce scattered showers on Sunday Afternoon into the overnight hours. Highest pops will be across northern NY between 18z-00z Sunday...but shift southeast into most of VT after 00z...as boundary crosses our region. Instability parameters show a modest axis of surface based CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg between 21-00z Sunday...with greatest values located over northern NY. Have included the mention of scattered thunderstorms...but not heavy rain...as dynamics are limited and surface convergence is weak. Temps on Sunday will be tricky as progged 850mb temps are between 14-16c...supporting highs well into the 80s...but with clouds and precip...expecting readings in the mid 70s mountains to lower 80s valleys...with a few mid 80s near VSF. Humidity levels will be increasing throughout the day...as dewpoints climb into the 60s. By Monday surface boundary is located just east of our cwa...with any lingering showers quickly ending as much drier air advects into the region. Progged pw values fall below 1.0 with moderate cold air advection on breezy northwest winds. 850mb temps cool 4 to 6 degrees by 12z monday with highs mainly in the 70s anticipated. will mention low chc pops in the morning for eastern areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...a cool night is expected on monday night with surface high pressure located over northern NY and building heights aloft. This will produce calm winds and clear skies with temps ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s to upper 40s/mid 50s warmer valleys. On Tuesday...surface high quickly shifts into the Gulf of Maine...as return flow develops ahead of approaching boundary. Some uncertainty on amount of low level moisture return before front arrives and overall instability on Tuesday afternoon. Pw`s climb to 1.50...with weak ribbon of CAPE around 500 J/kg. Will mention chance pops after 00z Wednesday with schc for thunder...as instability is limited. If front is earlier and greater instability develops from afternoon heating...then a greater coverage and intensity of storms will be possible...given upper level dynamics and associated jet. Strong low level cold air advection follows boundary on Thursday into Friday with 850mb temps falling between 2 and 4c. This low level thermal profiles supports temps dropping back to below normal by Thursday with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Expect mainly terrain driven showers on Thursday into Friday associated with upslope flow and some mid level moisture. Will mention schc/low chc pops for the mountains of NY into northern VT...based on position of closed 5h trof and available moisture. && .AVIATION /07Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 06Z Sunday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period with just a minor exception. The potential for low clouds and fog will exist at KSLK and KMPV between 09z and 13z...which would result in IFR to VLIFR conditions. Area of mid level clouds currently moving across the area may be a limiting factor to the development of the low clouds and fog...thus there is only the potential versus definitive that these conditions will occur. Otherwise looking at some shallow cumulus over the higher terrain later this morning and afternoon with high clouds...above 20,000 feet moving in after 00z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...mainly VFR through the period with high pressure. Two main threat periods for scattered showers and brief MVFR conditions - Sunday afternoon/evening, then again Tuesday afternoon/evening with weak trough passages. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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