Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 312011 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 311 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1255 PM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS NOW GENERALLY ABOVE ASSOCIATED CRITERIA. A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE (AND LOWER AT SUMMIT LEVEL). SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNSET. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA. 12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019. NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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