Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 302319 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 719 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 713 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LATE AFTERNOON VIS SATL PICS SHOW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN NY ZONES...WITH VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY MID- MORNING ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL FINE TUNE WITH NEXT UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING. MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND STRATUS. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

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