Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241905 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 305 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large semi-stationary upper trough across central Canada will keep a near daily threat of showers and a few thundestorms across the area through much of the upcoming week. The highest threat of showers should occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures should average near early summer seasonal norms through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...A fairly quiet night expected across the area as deeper tropical moisture responsible for moderate to heavy rainfall over the past day pulls well east and south of the area. A weak surface trough dropping south toward the international border may spark a few showers or an isolated storm this evening across the far north, otherwise dry weather is expected. Models differ on the southward extent of this feature with the NAM-based solutions most bullish on evening convection. Given the model differences will conditionally paint scattered 20-40 pops only across the most northern tier of counties through mid evening or so, tapering values off thereafter with loss of insolation. By later tonight patchy mist and/or fog a definite possibility here and there, but given cyclonic flow aloft and ambient flow of 10-15 kts atop the nocturnal boundary layer it shouldn`t be widespread. Adirondack/Eastern VT river valleys and favored hollows show highest probabilities of occurrence at this point. Low temperatures near seasonal norms mainly in the 50s. By tomorrow the next in a seemingly endless train of shortwaves pulls into the area by the afternoon and evening hours as we remain under the influence of a semi-stationary longwave trough across central Canada. Best PVA and modest instability to occur across the northern half of the area where 40-60 pops will be maintained for sct/numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Pops somewhat less further south and removed from best dynamical forcing (20-40%0. Highs trend cooler per 925-850 mb thermal progs and higher coverage of afternoon clouds...mainly upper 60s to mid 70s, perhaps a few upper 70s far south. Scattered showers then continue early Sunday evening, especially north before waning somewhat after midnight with loss of insolation and exiting shortwave. Variable clouds should be the rule with some breaks as lows bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...A stronger shortwave in the long string of shortwaves rotating around the broad upper trof will increase rain chances Monday. Some instability will allow for at least isolated thunder during the afternoon hours and have allowed at least some limited chances for thunder in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures remain below normal through Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled extended forecast continues. An upper level trough will dominate through mid week before the flow becomes more zonal. Despite flattening flow, the net change on the sensible weather will be minimal though as shortwaves will still be moving through the the zonal flow. In addition, nearly stationary boundary will be present near the area with increasing instability toward the end of the week. Good chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, and again toward the end of the week. Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the extended, with a warming trend from mid week and later. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through 03Z with mainly SKC to scattered cigs in the 040-080 AGL range. Winds generally west to northwesterly from 8-13 kts and occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range. A weak trough dropping south toward the intl border may spark a few showers in the 22-03Z time frame with highest probability of occurrence at KMSS. Most terminals should remain pcpn-free however. After 03Z winds abate to light with differing signals on degree/coverage of patchy br/fg across the area. Despite ambient flow from 10-15 kts just off the deck, wet/near saturated soils from recent moderate/heavy rainfall boosts confidence on more bullish solutions. Fow now will offer patchy 2-5sm br at most terminals in the 06-12Z time frame, though admittedly whether specific terminals actually fog in is a matter for debate. Highest probabilities at favored terminals of KMPV/KSLK and to a lesser extent KRUT. After 12Z Sunday VFR returns with sct cigs from 050-090 AGL as winds trend light south/southwesterly from 4-8 kts. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG

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