Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290527 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 127 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO LIMIT SKY COVER A BIT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S WEATHER DIFFICULT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. 850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA. SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...RJS/SISSON

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