Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291430 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1022 AM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. FOG THAT WAS AROUND THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER NAM MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT. BTV 4KM AND ECMWF SHOWING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. MODELS A BIT SLOW IN BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO VERMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AT 18Z SATURDAY IS ONLY 20-30 KNOTS...AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 11000 FEET...SO ANY HAIL THAT DEVELOPS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 AM EDT FRIDAY...A STRONG 1039MB AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES EXPECT A LARGE SWING FROM COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTN. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND NEK ON MONDAY MORNING WITH LATEST MEX FOR SLK SHOWING A 30F. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH NORTH WINDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLACEMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. GFS KEEPS OUR CWA DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ITS INTERESTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WAY TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPS. THINKING THE ECMWF IS A BIT AGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NORTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES...GIVEN POSITION OF HIGH...SO WILL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO A DAY...AND SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS BACK INTO THE M/U 70S MTNS TO L 80S WARMER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...1028MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR TAF SITES TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANY LEFTOVER FOG/BR AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z...GIVEN HIGH SUN ANGLE. STILL EXPECTING AN HOUR OF IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE GRADIENT AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTN...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTN. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO LOWER VIS BTWN 1-3SM IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (1V4) IS NOT CURRENTLY REPORTING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE 1V4 ASOS COMMUNICATIONS LINE WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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