Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011845 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 245 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1246 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED INTO A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 800 TO 1600 J/KG PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SFC-06KM SHEAR VALUES WERE HIGH EARLY TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH, THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG, 35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR FG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KSLK AND KMPV. FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS VT. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, FEW-SCT 040-080 WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TO KSLK AND KMPV DUE TO DECREASING CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS. SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. 06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXITING TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z. 12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM EQUIPMENT...JMG

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