Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221927 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. NO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRNT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO...BUT OVERALL IDEA OF A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS WARM FRONT FEATURE. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THINKING DAILY AIRMASS TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN DURING THE PEAK SURFACE HEATING. DAILY MAX CAPE VALUES RANGE BTWN 800 AND 1500 J/KG WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING PULSE TYPE STORMS DURING THE WEDS THRU FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS 4 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION YEAR TO DATE. THE LATEST US DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT IN MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THESE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED VERY DRY DEAD FUELS PER COORDINATION WITH VERMONT DEPT OF FOREST, PARK, AND RECREATION. THESE DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 17 AND 25% WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 7 PM...WHILE RH`S WILL BE THE LOWEST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM ON SATURDAY. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALIGNED SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND FROM MONTPELIER TO NEIGHBORED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY FUELS...WE WILL ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN...AS WINDS ARE MARGINAL AND KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS < 300 ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR COULD SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 306 PM EDT FRIDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH LAKE WINDS TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE WINDS TO SUBSIDE UNDER CRITERIA TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WAVES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH A MODERATE CHOP. HIGHEST WAVES WILL TEND TO BE IN AREAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER FIRE WEATHER...TABER MARINE...LOCONTO

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