Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211833 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 133 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Milder but breezy weather is expected for this afternoon with highs in ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. A cold front will move through the region late tonight and Wednesday, bringing scattered rain and snow showers. Thanksgiving Day is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 30s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 134 PM EST Tuesday...Forecast on track this afternoon for sunny and windy with highs from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. 88D VWPs show SSW winds up to 40kt right now at KCXX/KTYX so forecast of wind gusts 20-40 mph until sunset. A cold front will approach the region from the west overnight reaching the St Lawrence valley around 09z, then moving east into the Champlain Valley just after 12z, and CT valley by 16z. A band of precipitation will accompany the front and boundary layer temperatures should be warm enough to support mainly just rain showers as 925mb temps don`t drop below 0c until the front passes. It should be cold enough in the higher elevations to support a change to snow showers as the front moves by. Not expecting much in the way of rain or snow accumulation with perhaps a tenth or two of QPF mainly rain, but mainly snow at the mountain summits for 1-3" above 3000 ft and an inch or less down to the bases of the mountains as temperatures drop. Tomorrow morning any lingering orographically driven rain/snow showers in the valleys and snow showers in the higher terrain will gradually wind down during the afternoon. Expecting temperatures to hold fairly steady from around 30 in the Adirondacks to 40 in the valleys before falling again toward dark. Should be quiet Wednesday night as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in from the west and height rise aloft. Still could be some pesky clouds hanging on in the mountains with low temps ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s depending upon cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 222 AM EST Tuesday...Overall the short term period continues to look quiet with high pressure cresting over the region on Thanksgiving day. Variable cloudiness is expected though with an upper trough exiting the region Wednesday night, and mid/high clouds increasing Thanksgiving day in advance of the next system, but we should see some peaks of sun. Temps will be seasonably cool with lows in the teens/20s and highs ranging through the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 222 AM EST Tuesday...While the long term period continues to look active, there are no really no big systems on the horizon to speak of. The tail end of a decaying cold front will bring some scattered snow showers to the region Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by brief high pressure for the remainder of Friday into early Friday night. The weekend continues to look unsettled, but the latest trends are for one area of low pressure to track well north of the region, and another well offshore on Saturday, both delivering limited impacts to the northeast. The best chance for precipitation actually now appears to be post-frontal passage Saturday afternoon/night and through the weekend where upslope flow will enhance snow shower activity across the higher elevations. It will be noticeably warmer for Friday and Saturday though with deep southwesterly flow developing aloft. Highs should bump into the 30s/40s before falling back into the 20s/30s for Sunday/Monday as the upper trough settles overhead. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR but with south to southwest winds gusting 25-35 kt until just before sunset. Clouds and rain showers will begin to move into the area from the west tonight ahead of a cold front reaching near BTV near 12z with ceilings lowering to MVFR. Winds will be shifting to WNW around 10 kt behind the front and falling temperatures will bring a change to snow showers and IFR vsby mainly at SLK tonight and MPV tomorrow morning. Not expecting much of accumulation but could be a coating at SLK. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .MARINE... As of 134 PM EST Tuesday...Lake wind advisory in effect for winds 20-30 kts out of the South with gusts approaching 40 kts. Winds currently 32 kt at Colchester reef and 23 kt at Diamond Island. This will create significant wave heights 3 to 6 ft. These conditions may prove hazardous to those operating small craft, especially on the broad lake and in Vermont bays/inlets with southerly exposures. Gusty south winds will abate overnight. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Sisson MARINE...

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