Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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763 FXUS61 KBTV 101955 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 255 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT IN REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WE`RE FINALLY SEEING SOME INCREASED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, BUT FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY. IDEA FROM EARLIER TODAY STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER AS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS WHERE NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO 2-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND JUST A DUSTING ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY EARLY MORNING. FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MORNING LOWS. IN FACT, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BY SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT -30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF

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