Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 230719 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 319 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more showers on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 143 AM EDT Sunday...Gradual clearing will continue overnight from West to East across the area. Skies will be mostly sunny today and tonight with ridge of surface high pressure building over the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals today, generally lower to upper 60s. The quiet and dry weather will continue tonight with surface high remaining over the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will drop back into the lower to upper 30s, near seasonal normals. A surface low will pass well north of the region across Quebec, just a slight chance for a rain shower along the international border, don`t think much will come of it. With some clouds associated with this feature, temperatures will be a bit warmer along our northern zones. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast area is split between 500 mb northern stream closed low moving east out of northern Quebec and closed low moving east across the gulf states, with zonal westerlies. East/west oriented surface ridge gets supressed to the south as a weak cold front trailing from the Quebec low crosses the border. Limited moisture and upper forcing with this feature so no precipitation forecast, but expect clouds along the front to limit sunshine in the north. Cooling of 850 mb temps along the canadian border near 0 C, and +3 to +5C in the south, to support max temps near 50 north to near 60 south. By Monday night southerly low level flow reasserts itself and the front retreats northward. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...The southern stream low will be the dominant feature early in the extended period as it moves up the Atlantic coast and across southern and eastern New England Wednesday and Thursday. Low level easterly flow ahead of the low on Tuesday will spread moisture and cooler temperatures into New England, with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 in southeast portion of the forecast area, and warmer near 60 to the north and west. Chance for showers begin Tuesday as the low approaches, with likely POPs Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low passes. A break Wednesday night and much of Thursday as the low pulls away and a cold front approaches from the west, and the region finds itself under shortwave ridging. Strong south wind ahead of the front and warm air advection will boost Thursday max temps into the 70s. Front is a little delayed from guidance we were looking at this time last night, with timing now late Thursday evening/overnight periods. Still enough residual instability from daytime heating to support mention of thunder with showers that will accompany the frontal passage. GFS is a little more progressive, pushing the front east of the forecast area by midday Friday, while ECMWF is slower with showers lingering. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Conditions will be improving to VFR at all sites through the period as high pressure builds in. Some low stratus will continue to hold on at SLK/MPV throughout the overnight hours as a low level inversion sets up. Dry air associated with high pressure will see clearing skies for all sites by Sunday morning. Winds will be light and variable during the late night hours. Sunday during the morning to late afternoon hours expect the pressure gradient flow to pick up over the Saint Lawrence as winds become southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20kts possible. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance RA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...Neiles is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.