Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251448 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1048 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will slowly pull east of the area today with any morning showers ending and skies trending mainly clear by late afternoon or early evening. After high pressure brings a short window of fair and dry weather on Wednesday, shower and thunder chances return by Thursday into Thursday evening as a weak front crosses the area. Dry conditions then return by next weekend as surface high pressure builds across the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1042 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains on track with radar trends showing decreasing coverage of -SHRA activity as mid- level vort east of Lake Ontario drifts SSEWD. Still a few isold light showers apparent across the nrn Adirondacks and just north of the Intl Border at 1440Z. Thus, have maintained isold shower mention next 1-3 hrs before drying on N-NW low-level flow results in lingering activity ending. Likewise, low stratus are hanging in this morning...but drying and mid-level subsidence is resulting in clearing across srn Quebec per latest vis satellite trends. Should see considerable breaks in the overcast developing across our region from N-S after 18Z, with partly to mostly sunny conditions developing late aftn/early eve. In the meantime, temperature trends will be relatively flat, but should see some insolational heating late with late aftn highs in the upr 60s to lower 70s in valley locations. Sfc winds trending light north to northeasterly. High pressure at the surface and aloft then bridges across the region tonight into Wednesday with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. Given recent rains patchy br/fg will be a good bet in climatologically favored locales where moist soil conditions will act to effectively saturate near-surface layers. Lows to range from 45 to 55 in most spots overnight with corresponding highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...On Wednesday night will have increase of clouds overnight with winds becoming southerly ahead of next surface boundary. Have chance for some showers mentioned during the second half of the overnight, with best low level RH fields and forcing taking a while to reach our CWA. Pretty decent upper level shortwave will also be crossing our area at that time. Thursday will be a better chance for precipitation widespread across our forecast area as mid/upper level trough approaches our area along with surface cold front. At this time models indicate this frontal passage happening early in the day Thursday which will limit amount of instability available. Models continue to indicate some favorable deep layer shear in the fast mid level flow, but lack of strong shortwave energy. May be potential for some heavy rain though, with pwats reaching almost 2". Have continued with mention of chance thunder for Thursday afternoon with slight chance in the morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Upper level trough continues to influence our forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Have pops decreasing from likely to chance and pretty much ending by late Friday. Cooler and drier air will return from Friday night through the beginning of next week. Surface high pressure will ridge into the region. Temperatures will generally be near seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Slowly improving conditions today as upper low pressure exits east over time. Scattered morning showers at northern terminals to end by 15Z if not sooner. Cigs a mix of MVFR and IFR to begin the forecast cycle, trending VFR at all terminals in the 13-17z time frame as winds trend light north to northeasterly from 3-6 knots. Skies trend clear with light winds after 00Z setting the stage for areas of dense valley fog after 05Z. Highest confidence of LIFR/FG at KMPV and KSLK, though signals suggest KBTV may also be susceptible in the 07-11Z time frame as light easterly drainage flow develops. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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