Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270223 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1023 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Summer like conditions will persist across the North Country through the Memorial Day weekend, featuring well above normal temperatures, more humid conditions, and the threat for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1018 PM EDT Thursday...minor update to capture latest trends in temps/dewpoints and clouds. in addition...have continued to mention slight chance through the overnight hours as weak warm front continues to be draped across the region. This front combined with some increasing mid level moisture from progressive westerly flow aloft will continue the minimum threat for showers. developing southerly winds will keep temps mainly in the upper 40s mountain valleys to lower/mid 60s in the wider valleys. all covered well in the current forecast. Mid clouds become more abundant through the night area-wide with very light surface winds, leading to mild overnight lows ranging from the 50s in the Adirondacks and Central/Northeast Vermont, to lower 60s elsewhere, which are a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the 80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll fall just short in the upper 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies, ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week. Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a cold front moves through the region. High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of the week with generally dry conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Isolated showers/sprinkles across northern NY will generally diminish through 03z...leaving just sct-bkn100-120 for the balance of the overnight hours. Not expecting much fog, but a few breaks in the mid-deck will permit possible 5-6SM BR at MPV and across ern VT. Included 6SM BR at MPV 06-11Z. Winds light and variable overnight. Winds becoming south 5-10 kts for the daylight hours Friday. Daytime showers and isold tstms possible and included VCSH all TAF sites except for KMSS after 20-21Z Friday. Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame. && .CLIMATE... Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016 thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was April 17, 2002. Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as follows: 5/27 5/28 BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978 St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Banacos/Lahiff CLIMATE...KGM

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