Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310244 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 944 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 935 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE REGION. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE NIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND HOLES IN THE OVERCAST TO DOWNWIND EAST SIDE OF ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOW TEENS IN VERMONT. WITH THIS UPDATE BLENDED SKY FROM RUC13 MODEL WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLEARING SKIES. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPACED BY COOLING TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED OBSERVED TEMPS INTO LATEST LAV GUIDANCE TO LOWER THE HOURLIES. MIN TEMP FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE. WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. LESS NEW SNOW IN THAT PART OF THE STATE HOWEVER WOULD MINIMIZE BLOWING SNOW THREAT OVERNIGHT. REVIEW OF LOW LIGHT WEBCAMS IN THE STATE DO NOT REVEAL BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS. NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND MIN TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK FURTHER EAST AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS, COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25 KTS). OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

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