Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 101834 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold and blustery day is expected with scattered snow showers. Highs will only reach the teens mountains and 20s in the valleys today. Our next system arrives on Sunday Night into Monday with a widespread accumulating snowfall expected. Total snow accumulations will range from 3 to 7 inches by Monday afternoon. A slippery Monday morning commute is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 107 PM EST Saturday...Cold air and cloudy skies remains the theme for the day. Persistent low to moderate cloud cover will continue over Vermont while some breaks may show over Northern New York. Temps will be very slow to rise as cold air advection continues. The Champlain valley should some light snow showers push through late in the afternoon with some scattered flurries across the rest of the North Country. Current forecast is in good shape with no changes needed. Previous discussion...The coldest airmass of the season will be parked over our region today into Sunday...as northwest flow aloft continues. Forecast challenge today will be potential areal coverage of snow showers...as several weak features are showing up in water vapor and we have cold air moving over relative warm lake champlain water. Have bumped pops to chance across the Champlain Valley and western Slopes today...as water vapor shows weak ribbon of mid level moisture dropping southeast in the northwest flow aloft...along with weak 5h vort just north of the Great Lakes. This energy/moisture...will combined with low level cold air advection to produce scattered mainly light snow showers across the champlain valley and western slopes. Would not be surprised a few locations get a dusting to maybe an inch or two given the synoptic and mesoscale setup. By later this afternoon winds shift to more of a westerly direction and this will limit fetch across Lake Champlain...resulting in decreasing pops chances toward sunset. Progged 850mb temps drop between -16c and -18c today with 925mb temps between -13c and -15c...resulting in below normal readings. Thinking highs mainly in the teens mountains to mid 20s warmer valleys. For tonight...winds become light and variable as 1032mb high pres builds overhead. Big question will be if skies can clear with drying aloft and how temps are impacted. Soundings continue to show some moisture between 925mb and 800mb overnight...which supports clouds and slightly warmer temps. Low mainly in the single digits mountain valleys with fresh snow pack to mid teens champlain valley. if more clearing develops than anticipated...northeast kingdom and slk area could see first night of below 0f of the winter season. Sunday...relatively quiet and dry weather expected as we wait the arrival of our next system. Have mention some chance pops southern Saint Lawrence county as winds veer to the southwest winds...thinking weakening lake effect snow band may impact this region. Any accumulation would be light...given weak flow and developing shear. Based on warm air advection pattern and progged 850 to 500mb rh>70% off the gfs...have increased pops to chance by 00z across our southwest cwa. Thinking precip will quickly expand into our region...associated with strong developing low level southerly jet after 00z Monday. Temps continue below normal with highs mainly in the teens mountains to mid 20s valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 408 AM EST Saturday...Models continue to show clipper type low moving across north central US and into the Great Lakes region Sunday night. A warm front with strong isentropic lift out ahead of the surface low will spread snow SW to NE across the North Country Sunday night into Monday morning. Models show 850mb jet stronger than previous runs, likely resulting in some shadowing effects of precip amounts in the valleys and enhancement on eastern/southeastern slopes. Heaviest precip looks to occur between 08z-15z Monday and have mentioned moderate snow. Impacts: Snowfall of 2-4 inches by 12Z Monday will affect the morning commute, along with potential for wind gusts of 15-25 kts creating blowing snow and snow drifts. Snow continues throughout the morning before dry slot begins to taper off precip. Expect an additional 1-3 inches of snowfall with higher amounts possible, especially in the high terrain during the day Monday. Overall models have trended for a more northerly and quicker track of the associated surface low. Therefore, expect precip to taper off before warmer air has chance to affect ptype in most areas. Immediate Champlain Valley could see rain mixing with snow briefly. Cold front will move across the region late in the day with 925mb temps falling to around -4C Monday night. Some residual mountain snow possible Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 408 AM EST Saturday...The theme for the long term is cold with chances for more snow. Broad west to northwesterly flow with periodic chances of snow showers expected as a large, modified arctic airmass persists across nearly the entire northern tier of the lower 48. Models continue to show potential for some energy to move across the northeast mid to late work week, resulting in best chance for snow - although models still differ on details. Temperatures trend colder throughout the period with Friday max temps possibly remaining in the teens. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Sunday at all taf sites. Hires guidance keeps pointing to the idea of a snow showers that tracks through the northern Champlain valley so I did go ahead and include a tempo for a light snow showers between 19-22z for pbg/btv. The rest of the forecast should see a mid cloud deck between 3000-5000 ft through 00z this evening trending to scatter high clouds as a high builds in. Expect northwest winds 5 to 15 knots this afternoon trending light and variable overnight. Outlook 18Z Sunday through Wednesday... 18z Sunday - 00z Monday: VFR to start with widespread light to moderate snow spreading from southwest to northeast across the North Country 00z Monday - 00z Tuesday: MVFR and IFR as a warm front brings snow showers to the area, heavy at times, with some light icing during the afternoon Monday. Low level turbulence will be possible as a low level jet brings 35-45kts winds just off the surface. 00z Tuesday - Wednesday: Continued periods of VFR/MVFR in scattered snow showers are possible Tuesday into Weds with brief IFR possible.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Deal/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Deal

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