Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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308 FXUS61 KBTV 231731 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weather will remain dry through Wednesday night with surface high pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in temperatures. As the surface high shifts east of New England later in the week, warmer and more humid conditions will bring chances for showers and possible thunderstorms to the area Thursday into Thursday night. A few lingering showers are possible on Friday. However, generally looking for a return to dry conditions later Friday and through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds back across southeastern Canada and New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 1032 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains in great shape as we progress into the late morning hours with only some nominal changes to sky cover across the north to offer full sunshine in all areas today. The ample sunshine under light south to southwesterly flow should push temperatures solidly into the 70s this afternoon with a few spots touching 80F in warmer sections of the Champlain and St. Lawrence River Valleys. Pops nil. Have a great day. Prior discussion from 718 am EDT Tuesday... Synoptically quiescent conditions with moderately strong surface high pressure centered this morning across the srn tier of NY and PA. Early AM valley fog will dissipate between 12-13Z, leaving generally sunny conditions. Should see a few-sct high level clouds associated with shortwave trough passing well to the north across central Quebec this afternoon. A chilly start with min temperatures generally mid 40s to lower 50s early this AM...and as low as 37F at SLK around 10Z this morning. As the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of the North Country this afternoon, winds will become SW to WSW. Winds generally at or below 10 mph, but slightly stronger gradient flow across nrn NY will bring sw winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph across the St. Lawrence Valley and nrn Adirondacks 15Z-23Z. Will see some moderation in temperatures compared to Monday. Afternoon maximum temperatures expected to reach 75-80F in most locations. High pressure drifts east of NJ tonight with continued quiet wx conditions across the North Country. Good radiative cooling setup will bring redevelopment of fog in climatologically favored river valleys 05-12Z Wednesday. PoPs NIL today and tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper level ridge builds ahead of short wave energy on weds with south to southwest winds. Progged 850mb temps climb to 16c with 925mb temps near 22c...adding 15 to 850mb or 10 to 925mb supports highs well into the 80s with a few readings near 90 for weds. Have bumped a degree or two above superblend guidance. dewpoints will slowly increase...especially by southerly winds continue ahead of boundary. For thursday...initial pre-frontal trough and associated 5h vort moves quickly from west to east across our region between 18z-00z. This will produce some showers with maybe an embedded rumble of thunder. Best low level instability with cape values approaching 500 j/kg is located over the saint lawrence valley. Better 850 to 500 mb moisture arrives around 06z friday...along with pws surging to 1.75 inches ahead of well defined cold front. This low level convergence...along with stronger upper level forcing from digging mid/upper level trof will produce a band of showers with embedded storms on thursday night. Given the timing of boundary and lack of instability...not expecting any strong storms...but some localized downpours are possible. Convective elements will move fast given expected storm motions of 30 to 40 knots. QPF will generally be between 0.25 and 0.75 through thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface boundary will quickly move across our eastern section on friday morning...with any lingering showers ending by mid morning. Soundings show deep dry layer developing by midday friday...with increasing amounts of sunshine expected. Still cannot rule out a stray shower across the mountains and northeast vt on friday afternoon. Forecast area will be under low level cold air advection on friday with progged 850mb temps falling to 12c by 00z saturday. Given nw to se gradient thinking temps will range from the mid 70s northern ny to l/m 80s near vsf...associated with northwest downslope flow. Weak surface high with dry and cool conditions on saturday. By sunday...system shifts into eastern maine and southerly return flow ahead of next short wave energy and moisture develops. Temperatures will warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s with our next chance for showers arriving on sunday night into monday. Once again system will be quick moving with only a 3 to 6 hour window of precip expected...before dry air associated with high pressure builds. Temps will trend several degrees above normal during the period with lows mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s and highs mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Only exception will be some brief MVFR and/or IFR at KMPV/KSLK in the 07-12Z time frame Wednesday due to br/fg. Stronger flow in the 10-20 kt range immediately off the deck should preclude widespread br/fg formation, with confidence in occurrence only moderate - and mainly at KMPV terminal. Winds generally light to moderate south/southwesterly (6-12 kts) - occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range at KSLK/KMSS through 23Z, then light and variable overnight before a rinse and repeat after 12Z Wednesday to south/southwesterly. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... 18Z Wed - 18Z Thurs...VFR under high pressure. Only exception will be patchy LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z Wednesday night - though stronger flow aloft again keeps confidence only low to moderate at this time. 15Z Thurs - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered showers continuing into Thursday night. Generally drying out Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds. 00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 1051 PM EDT Monday...The AWOS (automated weather observing system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport (KRUT) remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us that a new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT AWOS. The FAA has also told us that they have no estimate at this time as to when the KRUT AWOS will be returned to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.