Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271107 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 707 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will be the rule across the North Country right through the entire Memorial Day weekend. High temperatures will be on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 707 AM EDT Friday...Warm air advection precipitation has ended across Vermont this morning and clouds associated with it have also be decreasing in areal coverage. Also seeing some clouds associated with shortwave trough moving across Quebec Province this morning. But as this cloud cover exits later this morning... sunshine combined with warmer 925/850 mb temperatures than yesterday suggests high temperatures should be in the 80s across the entire area...which will be about 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. This combined with dew points around 60 suggest instability should develop to enhance the potential for convection this afternoon and evening. Weak ridging aloft and lack of a well defined forcing mechanism suggests the terrain will be the main driving force for any convection. Do not feel the convection will be widespread as parameters for organized convection are limited. Nevertheless...looking for precipitation probabilities in the slight chance to chance category...especially from the northern Adirondacks eastward. Brief heavy downpours would be the main threat with any of the convection. As the atmosphere stabilizes tonight... convection should end by midnight. Higher dew points now in the area suggest overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s...which is 10 to 17 degrees above normal for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Friday...saturday and saturday night will be mainly dry and warm with large upper level ridge over the area as well as high pressure at the surface. temperatures will be almost twenty degrees warmer than normal for maximum temperatures as they nudge 90 in the warmest spots. on sunday upper level ridge will finally begin to slide eastward away from our area...upper level trof will approach from the great lakes region. upper level shortwaves move into our area and showers will become likely by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Friday...sunday night into monday a cold front will approach from the great lakes region with a low lifting well north of our area. cold front will move across the area during the daytime hours and showers will be likely for monday. then upper level flow will become more flat and westerly and a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the north country. drier warm weather will continue from tuesday through thursday. next chance for showers will be friday as another cold front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Through 12Z Saturday...Expect VFR conditions through much of the period...but there will be a potential for MVFR and possibly IFR conditions for ceilings and visibilities after 06z. This is when deeper moisture moves in and combined with any residual moisture from rainfall this afternoon and evening. The best potential for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will generally be between 20z and 03z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
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&& .CLIMATE... Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016 thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was April 17, 2002. Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as follows: 5/27 5/28 BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978 St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson/Lahiff CLIMATE...KGM

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