Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190743 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 343 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 141 AM EDT TUESDAY...HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AS MASSENA AND OGDENSBURG ALREADY REPORTING FOG AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SOME CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHERE LIKELY POPS PREFERRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MUCH LOWER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS VERMONT AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED FOR EASTERN VERMONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTS TO BE VERY AMPLIFIED FOR MID AUGUST...WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH BEST CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEAK 5H VORT AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR REGION ON THURS NIGHT. BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WL BE ACRS THE DACKS ON THUR NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN VT BY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...SO WL JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER ATTM. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 THRU FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY RANGE BTWN 9-11C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO NEAR 80 WARMER VALLEYS. GIVEN POSITION OF BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...LLVL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY. IF SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP...TEMPS WITH EASTERLY FLW WL HOLD INTO THE 60S...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE SLV. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO POSITION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE...SO WL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. FCST AREA WITH SFC AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FROM SATURDAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A 1015 MB SFC RIDGE ACRS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WL CONT TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING. THIS WL RESULT IN LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AND CLR SKIES. VIS/CIGS ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/MSS/SLK AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIFR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK FROM 07Z TO 12Z. THINKING VIS/CIGS WL JUMP BTWN IFR/VFR AT MSS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WINOOSKI RIVER FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR BTV...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE BTWN 08Z-11Z. IFR CONDITIONS WL BECOME VFR BTWN 12-13Z THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT THRU 06Z WEDS...WITH IFR DEVELOPING IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z-12Z. A WARM BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY LLVLS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS ACRS OUR TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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