Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300245 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1044 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1035 PM EDT MONDAY...STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR/MARITIME FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AT 02Z ...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT BY MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS EAST OF THE GREENS BY MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. GIVEN RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND OROGRAPHIC BLOCKING WITH INVERSION LAYER BELOW THE GREEN MTN RIDGE LINE...IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER. ALSO SEEING MODERATE NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AS COOL MARITIME AIR ALSO MAKES A RUN AT US FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE INTL BORDER. SHOULD SEE THESE NORTH WINDS GENERALLY GO AROUND TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONGER P-GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR NERN NY AND THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND TO WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 406 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SPC HAS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WITH THIS LOOKS MARGINAL...AND GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 332 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE AS ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE EXTENDED PATTERN WHICH FEATURES A SHIFT FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS DRY WEATHER WE`VE BEEN HAVING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...TO A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN UNDER A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE ARE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THIS GLORIOUS STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S UNDER GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST...DEEP TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WARRANTING LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER BUT WITH BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH LEFT BEHIND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH IN REALITY THEY`LL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL...HIGHS 50S-60S...LOWS 40S. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR AT KBTV,KPBG,KMSS WITH IFR DEVELOPING AT KMPV/KSLK 06-15Z. VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE. CONFIDENCE LEVEL BELOW AVERAGE AS A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PINCHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH COOLER DRIER AIR AND FROM THE EAST WITH COOLER MOIST MARITIME AIR. KBTV RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ACTION BUT THINKING RIGHT NOW JUST SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE MOIST MARITIME AIR HAS PRODUCED IFR CIGS WITH EAST NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ME AND NH AND EXPECTING THIS TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KMPV BY 04-06Z THEN LOWER WITH SOME MIST AND FOG. THINK THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BLOCK MOST OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXCEPT AT KRUT WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. EXPECTING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON TUE BUT MVFR CIGS COULD HANG IN AT KMPV ALL DAY. IN NY KMSS IN THE COOLER DRIER AIR SO JUST VFR EXPECTED, WHILE AT KSLK MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR WITH IFR CIGS WITH MIST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES. WINDS GENERALLY N-NE AT KBTV/KMSS/KPBG,TRENDING SE TUE. LIGHT AT KSLK AND SE AT KMPV/KRUT ALL ABOUT 5 TO 10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00-15Z WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR AT KMPV/KSLK AND MVFR/VFR AT KBTV AND ELSEWHERE. 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-13Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 406 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS LINE WITH THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SPRINGFIELD VERMONT (VSF) HAS BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THUS...METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW BEING TRANSMITTED FROM THIS SITE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...BTV

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