Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261736 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1236 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM. MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST REMAINS IN PLACE ON NRN FRINGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW EWD MOVING OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY INDICATING SOME WEAK RADAR ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO SRN VT. GIVEN DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VIRGA...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY. ARCTIC AIR GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MOST AREAS OF VERMONT...AND UPR SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. THESE FORECAST READINGS ARE 20-25 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTH...AND LOCALLY NE IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING US WITH MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGH COLD...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE. EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTH OF WINDS PRESENT LOTS OF MODEL VARIATIONS FOR MIN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS LATER. IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO CONTEND WITH. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS AND ALSO INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY AND FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN QUICKLY RETURNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BY WEDNESDAY. ITS SHAPING UP AS A POTENTIALLY MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING EVENT...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH WARMING MAY OCCUR FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE JUST MENTIONED SNOW. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK AND KRUT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS INDICATED BY VCSH. AS UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 06Z, CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW AT 3-8KTS FRIDAY MID-MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR LATE TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...KGM

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