Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281910 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Overall looking at a quiet day today with clouds building up over the mountains and maybe a shower or two over the higher terrain this afternoon. Most areas will remain dry with highs in the 70s to around 80. The pattern will change late tonight and especially on Memorial Day as clouds will be on the increase along with the chances for rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 146 PM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape with little in the way of any changes for this afternoon. Cumulus forming over the mountains have had little in the way of vertical extent...thus feeling continues for just a shower or two possible over the mountains later this afternoon. If anything we will start to see an increase in clouds as the afternoon wears on and have tweaked sky grids to account for this trend. Rest of forecast remains unchanged. Previous Discussion... Tonight will remain dry early before the mid-level ridge pushes east after midnight. This will lead to mid/upper level low progressing eastward into the Great Lakes region. A surface low and shortwave trough will pivot through the region, dragging a warm frontal feature and associated deep moisture through the pre-dawn hours Monday with widespread showers developing through the morning. Hi-res models still hint at with synoptic forcing associated with mid-level WAA as it lifts north, there`s potential a weak mid-level dry slot building in briefly during the late morning to mid-day hours which could bring brief period of reduced PoPs and the potential for some gusty southeast winds along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks as well as western slopes of the Green Mountains as a 925-850mb jet of 35-50 kts will be overhead. Thinking is still the same as the previous shift, still not thinking this will be wind advisory levels, but certainly gusts up to 40mph are quite possible. The chance for strong winds will quickly subside Monday afternoon/evening as a weak cold frontal boundary shifts through area. With this we can expect to see another brief round of showers and would not rule out a rumble or two of thunder as well too. Sunday night will see lows in the 50s, while monday will see highs Monday slightly below normal in the low 60s and low 70s in the western counties.. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday continues to look potentially active with the threat of numerous showers and possible thunderstorms as several pieces of shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft rotate into the region associated with broad upper level low pressure over central Ontario. Latest GFS and NAM continue to show a modest 850mb thermal ridge over the area ahead of these features, as well as the potential for surface instability on order of 500-1000 J/kg and impressive 0-3km and 0-6km shear of 30-40kts and 50-60kts respectively. Uncertainly does lie in the timing of the shortwaves moving through as the first looks to track through central/western areas during the morning hours, which could limit insolational heating and subsequent instability for the afternoon when the second shortwave moves in. That said, will continue to highlight likely PoPs for showers and increase to chance coverage for thunderstorms, none of which I think will have the potential to become severe. Showers and any convective activity diminish going into the overnight hours with a dry but mostly cloudy and mild night on tap with lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday...Extended period continues to look unsettled as a broad mid-upper level trough will be our controlling weather feature with persistent southwesterly flow over the region. Extending from northern Ontario southward into the Great Lakes beginning Wednesday, this feature very slowly drifts eastward over the Northeast through the week and into the weekend, finally looking to exit into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night into Sunday. Several shortwave troughs rounding the base of the parent trough will generate chances for precipitation just about every day, with the best chances for shower activity generally being during afternoon periods, where the combination of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and surface heating will result in shallow instability and shower development. Thursday looks to potentially be dry in-between shortwave troughs, with the best day of the week coming Sunday as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft builds over the Northeast. Temps during the period look to be very seasonal, with daytime highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday....VFR conditions through much of the period with only increasing clouds above 5000 feet this afternoon and tonight. Looks like main area of showers will move in from the west after 12z and thus the 12z to 18z period will see ceilings and visibilities lowering into the MVFR category. Winds will be under 10 knots through 12z then gust to 20 knots from the south and southeast after 12z. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/MV SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson

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