Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281420 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1017 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AT SUNRISE MAINLY IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL). PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW (WITH UPR LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC) RESULTING IN A FEW STRATOCU/STRATUS ACROSS FAR NERN VT WITH REPORTS OF ISOLD SW--. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE THIS AFTN TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F. POPS NIL. LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS CORRECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONVERGING ON SOLUTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS, BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE MONDAY. EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND LIGHT WINDS. FEW-SCT050 FAR NERN VT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SKC DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS

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