Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 070546 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 127 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS NOW STREAMING UP THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING AS AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.7 TO 1.9" SURGES INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH 19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. 18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...DEAL/MUCCILLI EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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