Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210929 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 529 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END OFF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POPS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THE EVENING...AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH TIMING OF FRONT AND LOW IS SILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO POSITION OF THE FRONT. LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 03Z MONDAY NIGHT AT MSS/SLK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AT BTV/MPV AND SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT RUT. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY AT MSS WITH 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW SHORT TERM...JN/NEILES LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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