Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 211904
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
304 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016
A cold front will cross the North Country today bringing showers,
heavy at times. Gusty south winds will occur in advance of the
front through early afternoon. Some showers will produce locally
heavy downpours. On Monday, high pressure returns bringing cooler
temperatures and drier weather. Weather will remain dry through
Thursday with high pressure in control, along with a gradual
moderation in temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 209 PM EDT Sunday...Rain, heavy at times continues to
affect the St Lawrence Valley and will shift east today, main area
of rain to reach the Central and southern Champlain Valley around
19z-21z, continuing east into eastern VT around 23z-01z. Still
have only slight chance for an embedded thunderstorm or two as
SBCAPE continues to be limited. Also lightning thus far has been
far south (PA). Upstream 6hrly precip obs of 0.5 to 1.0" rainfall
amts, with PWATS 1.5 inches or greater, still expect heavy
rainfall to be the main concern. TYX instantaneous precip rates
around 1 inch per hour in areas, but movement of showers
(generally northeastward) so far mitigating any flooding concerns
with 850mb and 925mb winds 25-35kts as indicated by VAD wind
Expect back edge of precip to move west to east, ending showers
in the St Lawrence Valley between 23z-01z, Champlain valley btwn
03z-06z and exiting eastern VT 09z-12z. Storm total QPF generally
0.5 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts possible.
Some low clouds hanging around behind the front with gusts
subsiding tonight, but sustained winds remaining breezy 7-14kts.
Min temps tonight falling into the 50s-around 60.
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Upper trough is exiting the area to the
east Monday morning...but there may still be some lingering
showers east of the Green Mountains in the morning. Northwest flow
in the low and mid levels will promote cold air advection and
below normal temperatures are expected with highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. High pressure builds in Monday night and with clear
skies and light winds...looking at below normal temperatures to
continue with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s. This shot of
below normal temperatures will be short lived as temperatures
quickly rebound to seasonal normals on Tuesday with plenty of
sunshine and no precipitation expected.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...The warming trend that began on Tuesday
will continue into Wednesday and Thursday as southwest flow aloft
becomes established over the region. Highs will be in the low to
mid 80s both days. Dry weather will continue Wednesday into the
first half of Thursday before a trough of low pressure moves in
Thursday night and Friday. This will allow for increasing clouds
and the chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure follows in behind the trough of low pressure
on Saturday for drier weather and slightly below normal
.AVIATION /19Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions outside of showers. Area of
rain, heavy at times continues to move west to east with
individual movement of showers more SSW to NNE. Within these
showers, MVFR/IFR conditions as rain is heavy at times with 0.5-1
inch rainfall rates. Still have slight chance of thunder for an
isolated embedded thunderstorm. Winds out of the south continue to
be gusty through the rest of the daytime generally gusting
Timeline for showers and possible MVFR/IFR conditions expected as
MSS...continuing through approx 00Z Mon.
Low clouds could linger into Monday morning with MVFR cigs
expected at MPV and SLK. Winds expected to shift W overnight to
NW by daybreak Monday with gusts returning Mid-late Monday
morning, but not as strong at 15-20kts. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected for Monday.
NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of
disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of
amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has
been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically
transmitted, we will lift that restriction.
Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday...
18Z Mon - 18Z Thurs...VFR under High pressure. Only exception
will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z each morning.
18Z Thurs onward...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers.
-- Changed Discussion --As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...Strong southerly winds continue in
advance of surface cold front across the St Lawrence Valley. Will
continue to see sustained south winds 20-30kts across Lake
Champlain through the next few hours, before subsiding with onset
of rain showers as frontal rainband moves into the region from the
west. Showers will contain heavy downpours this afternoon, and a
few thunderstorms are also possible late afternoon into early
evening. Those planning on boating today should be aware of the
strong south winds and potential for heavy rain showers later in
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