Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211904 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 304 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the North Country today bringing showers, heavy at times. Gusty south winds will occur in advance of the front through early afternoon. Some showers will produce locally heavy downpours. On Monday, high pressure returns bringing cooler temperatures and drier weather. Weather will remain dry through Thursday with high pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 209 PM EDT Sunday...Rain, heavy at times continues to affect the St Lawrence Valley and will shift east today, main area of rain to reach the Central and southern Champlain Valley around 19z-21z, continuing east into eastern VT around 23z-01z. Still have only slight chance for an embedded thunderstorm or two as SBCAPE continues to be limited. Also lightning thus far has been far south (PA). Upstream 6hrly precip obs of 0.5 to 1.0" rainfall amts, with PWATS 1.5 inches or greater, still expect heavy rainfall to be the main concern. TYX instantaneous precip rates around 1 inch per hour in areas, but movement of showers (generally northeastward) so far mitigating any flooding concerns with 850mb and 925mb winds 25-35kts as indicated by VAD wind profiles. Expect back edge of precip to move west to east, ending showers in the St Lawrence Valley between 23z-01z, Champlain valley btwn 03z-06z and exiting eastern VT 09z-12z. Storm total QPF generally 0.5 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts possible. Some low clouds hanging around behind the front with gusts subsiding tonight, but sustained winds remaining breezy 7-14kts. Min temps tonight falling into the 50s-around 60. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Upper trough is exiting the area to the east Monday morning...but there may still be some lingering showers east of the Green Mountains in the morning. Northwest flow in the low and mid levels will promote cold air advection and below normal temperatures are expected with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. High pressure builds in Monday night and with clear skies and light winds...looking at below normal temperatures to continue with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s. This shot of below normal temperatures will be short lived as temperatures quickly rebound to seasonal normals on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and no precipitation expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...The warming trend that began on Tuesday will continue into Wednesday and Thursday as southwest flow aloft becomes established over the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s both days. Dry weather will continue Wednesday into the first half of Thursday before a trough of low pressure moves in Thursday night and Friday. This will allow for increasing clouds and the chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. High pressure follows in behind the trough of low pressure on Saturday for drier weather and slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /19Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions outside of showers. Area of rain, heavy at times continues to move west to east with individual movement of showers more SSW to NNE. Within these showers, MVFR/IFR conditions as rain is heavy at times with 0.5-1 inch rainfall rates. Still have slight chance of thunder for an isolated embedded thunderstorm. Winds out of the south continue to be gusty through the rest of the daytime generally gusting 20-30kts. Timeline for showers and possible MVFR/IFR conditions expected as follows... MSS...continuing through approx 00Z Mon. SLK...18Z-02Z Mon. PBG/BTV/RUT...20z-03Z/04Z Mon. MPV...22Z-05Z Mon. Low clouds could linger into Monday morning with MVFR cigs expected at MPV and SLK. Winds expected to shift W overnight to NW by daybreak Monday with gusts returning Mid-late Monday morning, but not as strong at 15-20kts. Otherwise VFR conditions expected for Monday. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday... 18Z Mon - 18Z Thurs...VFR under High pressure. Only exception will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z each morning. 18Z Thurs onward...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers. && .MARINE...
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As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...Strong southerly winds continue in advance of surface cold front across the St Lawrence Valley. Will continue to see sustained south winds 20-30kts across Lake Champlain through the next few hours, before subsiding with onset of rain showers as frontal rainband moves into the region from the west. Showers will contain heavy downpours this afternoon, and a few thunderstorms are also possible late afternoon into early evening. Those planning on boating today should be aware of the strong south winds and potential for heavy rain showers later in the day.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...KGM MARINE...Verasamy

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