Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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954 FXUS61 KBTV 272339 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 739 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers or thunderstorms possible this evening near the Canadian border. Better chances for showers and storms arrive Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Showers over the southern areas expected Friday and Sunday. Saturday looks to be the drier day of the weekend. Seasonal temperatures will close out the week and persist into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 739 PM EDT Wednesday...Only slight modifications for 730 pm update this evening, going forecast is in great shape. Dry weather persists through the rest of this afternoon, then a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect Northern NY and northern tier of VT as a weak disturbance moves in from southeastern Ontario this evening. Expect potential for precipitation to diminish after midnight with light to calm winds. Morning low temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover, which will be increasing from the west/northwest as a mid level trough approaches. Expect temperatures to range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Thursday will be more active with showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as 500mb trough affects the area. In the morning hours, showers will develop becoming more numerous in the late morning/early afternoon with thunderstorm activity expected. Negative Showalters, Lifted indices of -2c to -6c, CAPE values anywhere from 800-1400J/kg support convective activity. Looking at wind shear, there will be light low level flow and, therefore, minimal low level shear. Early Thursday, an 80-90kt jet at 250mb with 0-6km shear of 30-35kts to start the day and weakening in the afternoon. PWATs exceed 1.5 inches in areas by early afternoon along with steepening lapse rates. Overall expect an early show, with greatest potential for thunderstorms during the midday hours. Few thunderstorms could become strong before vort max providing lift begins to exit south and east and activity gradually dissipates. Max temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer than normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Focus for the short term period will continue to be a weak frontal boundary as it slowly sags southward through the BTV CWA Thursday night, and stalls somewhere near/over the VT/NH/MA border on Friday. Convective activity wanes going into Thursday evening/night with the loss of instability due to decreasing insolational heating. Moving on into Friday, latest trends are for additional precipitation to blossom along the stalled frontal boundary as weak shortwave energy aloft shifts east from the Ohio River Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. This places the best chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm across southern Vermont, while areas north will remain largely dry. Much like on Thursday, instability and shear are rather weak, so not expecting any strong storms, but a few more robust cells that do develop will have the potential to produce brief heavy rain as PWATs remain in the 1.5-1.75" range. Br Friday evening, any precipitation will begin to dissipate while shifting eastward as high pressure begins to build in from the Great Lakes Temps remain on the mild side of normal to begin the period on Thursday night, holding in the upper 50s to low 60s, but trend back towards mid/late summer standards with highs Friday in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows Friday night ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Overall idea for the long term period remains intact from previous forecast thinking with surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday slowly shifting east to off the New England seaboard by early next week while aloft the flow remains out of the west/northwest. This offers mainly dry conditions through the period though latest guidance indicates a weak shortwave will bring a chance for a few showers to southern areas during the Sunday afternoon through Monday timeframe as it tracks from the Ohio River Valley to Cape Cod. Overall this energy is fairly weak, so will just offer some low chance PoPs across Rutland/Windsor counties while northward keep the forecast dry. Temps through the period begin very seasonal with highs over the weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows in the 50s. As the high shifts east of the forecast area, increasing southerly flow will allow for a return of warmer and more humid conditions with temperatures rising a couple of degrees each day, reaching into the mid 80s to near 90 by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail with exception of IFR fog and possible LIFR cigs at KSLK and KMPV mainly between 07z- 11z. Few/isolated showers/tstorms north of Lake Ontario could eventually affect Northern NY through 06z but did not include in terminal forecasts until they make their move. During the day Thursday surface front sags slowly south with increasing mid level clouds and will interact with surface instability to produce showers and thunderstorms. Introduced VCSH generally after 17-18z, and there could be areas MVFR or even IFR vis in heavier rain. Outlook 00z Friday through Monday... 00z Friday - 00z Sat: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the daytime Friday. 00z Sat - 00z Tue: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hanson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.