Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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088 FXUS61 KBTV 140858 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 358 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold temperatures are here and will remain through the weekend. There is a chance for some light snow showers Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will moderate next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EST Thursday...Dry and cold weather will be the main story for today through Friday with cold surface high pressure ridge over us. Maximum temperatures will top out in the single digits and teens today which is about 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Our region is under a very cold airmass, the coldest of this meteorological winter season so far. 850 temperatures will dip to about -20 C this afternoon. Although it will be a cold day, winds will be generally light and will see some sunny skies this afternoon so not a terrible day. As previous forecaster mentioned...atop the high peaks, temps will barely touch zero, and winds will be brisk in the 20-30 mph range, wind chills will push into the -20 to -30 below zero range. Tonight will be cold as well though the air mass will slowly be warming for tonight and Friday. Another weak low pressure system approaches the area Friday, and the flow ahead of this low will become favorable briefly for some lake effect snow showers in extreme southern Saint Lawrence county. Temperatures Fri will be a bit warmer but still colder than seasonal normals, generally teens to lower 20s with increasing cloud cover through the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...Digging shortwave in broad cyclonic flow will back flow for favorable SW flow and potential lake effect banding moving northward into St. Lawrence by Friday aftn into Friday night ahead of surface clipper/front which after passage early Saturday morning the band will retreat south again. The flow indicates longest duration parallel or west of Route 11 then slipping quickly SE-S as clipper and front push through. Our thinking matches closely with WFO BUF and thinking several inches along-South of Route 3 in Adirondacks with perhaps 3-6+ locally along and West of Route 11 in SW St. Lawrence county. However...upper shortwave and surface clipper along with moisture fetch from Lake effect banding will bring about light snow/snow showers late Friday night - early Saturday especially for northern NY and mountains of VT. Snow squalls a good possibility along the frontal boundary Sat morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Wednesday.... Surface clipper and shortwave moves through NY/VT Saturday morning with some enhanced upslope flow snows dissipating during the afternoon. Widespread dusting to less than inch but several inches possible along western slopes/mountains and an inch-2 in NE VT hilly terrain. Quiet Sat ngt-Sunday with slight ridging at all levels then backing return flow will bring about some warm air advection precipitation Sunday night-Monday. ECMWF and Canadian are in agreement with a more amplified robust system, still yielding light precipitation whereas GFS is outlier with continued ridging and nothing. WPC similar to ECMWF/Canadian thus following these solutions. Differences continue Monday night-Tuesday as well but at least have similar thinking of a northern stream shortwave and weak front moving across in the Tuesday timeframe with perhaps coastal development after passing our area although GFS sooner/closer with coastal development and will back off on this solution for now. Temperatures near freezing with sub-freezing surface layer may mean some freezing rain as part of the light wintry mix for Monday- Tuesday. Temperatures gradually moderating throughout the period with above freezing highs in the Monday-Tuesday period and slightly cooler Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue for the 24 hr TAF period. Some mid and high level clouds will move across the area...but have little impact. Winds will be tapering off through the period with speeds under 10 knots generally after 12z. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Neiles

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