Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191430 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1024 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TODAY, EVENED OUT HOURLY TEMPS, AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS, BUT WILL HAVE MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT. WITH GUSTY NW WIND AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE TODAY AND CURRENT TEMPS ALSO NEAR MAX TEMPS. POPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH KSLK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 34 DEGREES. POPS TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOSS OF MOISTURE. 500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500 FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING. ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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