Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 120807 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 407 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF SUNSHINE...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...BASICALLY OFFERING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES WARMER. LOOKING AT GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-22C SUPPORTING HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WHILE GENERALLY RISING THROUGH THE DAY WILL HOLD IN THE 50S FOR COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND OF 5 TO 15 MPH. ENJOY!
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING SO WE`RE JUST LOOKING AT SOME INCREASING SKY COVER TONIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S AND INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH A DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL JET OF NEAR 40KTS AT 925-850MB HELPING TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. DUE TO THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WE COULD SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED THOUGH AND PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST THOUGH AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS OCCURS TUESDAY (SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS) BUT CAN`T RULE ANYTHING OUT ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WILL BE THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY RETURN TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT BE MILD AND MUGGY WITH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 323 AM EDT SATURDAY...LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE T-STORMS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TREND/RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. NEAR SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A RELATIVELY DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EITHER LATE TUESDAY (00Z GFS SOLUTION) OR WEDNESDAY (SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION). A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BAND OF STRONG SWLY FLOW AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. INSTABILITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL FOR INSOLATIONAL HEATING...BUT BASED ON 00Z ECMWF 850MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C AND LOW-MID 60S 2-METER DEWPOINTS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PRESUMING PARTLY SUNNY INTERVALS EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY (AROUND 60%) WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN COMBINATION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRONG SWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE/LL JUST NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF INSTABILITY FIELDS AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...SHOULD BE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. THE 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND +9C ON WEDNESDAY AND ONLY RECOVER TO +10 TO +11C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED FOG AT SLK/MPV 07-11Z THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED AT PBG WITH SE WINDS 5-8 KTS DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OWING TO DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN HUMID AIR MASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME). && .MARINE...
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AS OF 406 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO CONCERNS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE CREATING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS MARINE...EVENSON

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