Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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630 FXUS61 KBTV 081141 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 641 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY... GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO WRAP UP AND MOVE WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE NET RESULT FOR THE NORTH COUNTY IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS I DID DELAY THE INCREASE IN OUR CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO FOR THE DAY. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR MONDAY! PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 AM...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER. TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S . && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...SURFACE LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. EXPECTING STEADY LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MODEL SHOWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND LOW BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. HAVE FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THIS FORECAST IS 00Z ECMWF MODEL WHICH NOW HAS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT NEARS CAPE COD JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK (40 N 70W) BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A FLATTER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND MOVES IT OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS LOW AS IT TAKES IT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT THAT WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME...AS THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON BRINGING IN COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRIER AND MUCH COLDER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERED LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE VT/MASS BORDER WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN AFTER 22Z DOWN TO 2 MILES AT RUT AND AFTER 00Z AT MPV WHERE I KEPT THE VSBY STILL MVFR. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...DEAL

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