Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
856 FXUS61 KBTV 230823 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 423 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will bring dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies and above normal temperatures today. An area of low pressure will lift northwards towards the New England coastline and bring increasing clouds with a chance for showers on Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region later in the week bringing summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Fog remains the challenge overnight with many of our favoured valley locations reporting patchy dense fog. Patchy dense fog will continue through most of the overnight hours along those sheltered river basins and in areas where residual moisture from yesterday`s rainfall is trapped under a low level inversion. The RAP still has a good handle on the fog so I`ve continued to trend the sensible weather towards RAP based forecast soundings. The upper level ridge tracks into the north country by mid morning and dry air moves in aloft. Hires progs depict <30% for the 1000- 500mb layer average as a subsidence inversion moves in from the west. Expect plenty of sunshine for the forecast area with 925mb temps warming to 18-19C leading to max temps in the upper 70s with a few spot 80`s possible. With the ridge aloft and high pressure building at the surface expect light north winds throughout the afternoon and early evening. Overnight tonight we slowly see an increase in clouds over southern and eastern Vermont as a low pressure system brings a sight chance for rain showers mainly over Windsor county in southern Vermont. With clear skies still over northern New York expect temps to radiate down to the upper 40s while staying in the low 50s in Vermont.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Upper low off the eastern tip of Long Island Tuesday morning will move northeast and reach eastern Maine by Wednesday morning. This track should keep the bulk of precipitation out of our area with a noticeable gradient of precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at dry conditions for the Saint Lawrence Valley...a slight chance for the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley...and chance for the southern and eastern sections of Vermont. Can`t rule out the possibility of a thunderstorm either. Much of this is already in the forecast and have continued the idea. Showers taper off Tuesday night as upper low moves well east of the area...but a shortwave trough moves in from the west on Wednesday and thus looking at another chance of showers for all areas along with a slight chance for a thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures will be the rule through the extended forecast Thursday through Sunday. In fact...925 mb temperatures get a little above +20C which suggests highs well into the 80s. West to southwest flow aloft will develop and thus higher dew points are expected. With the increased moisture and clouds/convection expected through the weekend...high temperatures may be tempered just a bit Nevertheless will indicate upper 70s to mid 80s for the weekend. Instability will also exist and thus looking at the potential for some showers and thunderstorms through much of the extended. Some of it will be diurnally driven...thus not looking at any particular days being a washout...but a threat for convection will exist most days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06Z Monday...Clearing skies and trapped low level moisture have enabled scattered areas of patchy fog to develop. The residual moisture from the precip yesterday will continue to aid in fog development especially at RUT and MPV. Both locations have a well developed fog bank around the airport terminals and as of 06z are 1/4SM with fog. Expect periods of IFR fog to be possible for SLK/PBG/BTV as well through 10-11z this morning. MSS should remain clear for most of the evening and the lack of precip yesterday should preclude any visibility restrictions from fog formation. Anticipate the low level moisture mixing out quickly tomorrow and thus conditions should improve to VFR after 12z. Winds will be light and variable overnight and then turn northerly after 15z at 05-10 knots. Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday... 06z Tue - 12z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon showers Wednesday with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. 12z Thursday - Friday: VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.