Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261915 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 315 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 135 PM EDT SUNDAY...ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR 130 PM UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. RAISED TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY WITH MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF VERMONT THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF PRECIPITATION AS NOTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THESE CLOUDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON DAYTIME HEATING INITIALLY THIS MORNING, BUT DO STILL EXPECT BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING MOVING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS EAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER SUNRISE. WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON, SOME INSTABILITY EXPECT TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODELS LOOK TO BE OVER DOING THE SBCAPE VALUES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS BUFKIT NAM SHOWS MOIST/SATURATED AIR HAVING DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. PLUS THE LACK OF SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS GFS WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BUT PWATS LOOK TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS EAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST, THOUGH TOPPING OUT AT 1.25 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER SUNSET, CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION, MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE, PROVIDING THE HEAT/ENERGY WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND AN INCH. SO DAYTIME HEATING WITH SOME HELP FROM AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME UNORGANIZED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS STATED BEFORE, WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL SEE MAXES IN THE LOW 80S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND REACHING AROUND 90 IN AREAS ON TUESDAY. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S, SO SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH, A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY LIGHT FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS. CIGS GENERALLY SCT (OR TRENDING SCT) FROM 035-050AGL THROUGH 00Z AFTER WHICH SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH MODELS HIGHLIGHTING BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE I`VE INCLUDED AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VCSH) AT KMPV/KRUT IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. AFTER 00Z VFR CONDS CONTINUE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KMPV. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2-8 PM EACH DAY WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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