Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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886 FXUS61 KBTV 130953 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 453 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY...THEN SEE DROPPING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION. CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PCPN. SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .CLIMATE... COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES... BTV -25 1967 MPV -29 1967 MSS -33 1967 SJBV1 -30 1967 MMNV1 -32 1967 COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -2 1979 MPV -4 1979 MSS -3 1987 SJBV1 +2 1987 MMNV1 -19 1979 COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY 14TH)... BTV -19 1987 MPV -19 2003 MSS -29 2003 SJBV1 -28 2003 MMNV1 -30 1979 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034- 035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NEILES CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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