Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160237 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1037 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure across the northern Great Lakes will build eastward providing the North Country with cooler and drier weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will arrive with a frontal system later Friday into Friday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1029 PM EDT Tuesday...The last of the showers and thunderstorms are exiting ewd across the CT river valley as of 0230Z. Little change in air mass in the wake of today`s rainfall, which ranged from around 0.10" at BTV to over 2" per dual-pol radar estimates in northern Lamoille County in north- central VT. Combined with rapid clearing, will see areas of fog developing in many spots overnight with light and variable winds. A more well-defined cold front remains northwest of the area across the Ottawa River Valley in sern Ontario, and won`t arrive until around dawn on Wednesday. Overnight lows generally ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the North Country.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...Behind the upper level trough the flow becomes northwest which will act to drive in a drier airmass. High pressure develops and remains in firm control until late Thursday as an upper level trough slowly starts to increase cloud cover across the North Country. The main forecast challenges will be how cold do we bottom out at in the Northern Adirondacks Wednesday night. With calm winds/clear skies, I wouldn`t be surprised Thursday morning to see Saranac Lake in the 30s. Warm air advection returns though for Thursday as temps trend back towards near normal for Thursday afternoon and overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 412 PM EDT Tuesday...Available medium range guidance is showing good agreement through early next week. Period begins with ridging at the surface and aloft before sliding east of the area and bringing the return of precipitation early Friday. Heavy rainfall may become possible as PWAT values around 2" Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Surface front slowly moves east bringing and end to the precipitation Saturday. Quiet weather returns during the day Sunday and Sunday night as a ridge builds back over the eastern seaboard. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Scattered thunderstorms pushing east and southeast of BTV at 2345Z will impact MPV during the next hour with brief heavy rain, and ultimately clear the region by 02Z. Will see some partial clearing and patchy LIFR fog in the wake of this activity overnight. Have indicated dense fog at MPV/SLK after 06Z. VFR and clearing sky conditions expected during the daylight hrs Wednesday with north winds 8-10kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...Banacos/Manning

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