Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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003 FXUS61 KBTV 180724 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 324 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast of the United States will maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday. With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west to east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...Very quiet wx through the near- term. A weak shortwave trough passing to our north across southern Quebec is bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies during the pre- dawn hours. However, this feature will depart to the east rather quickly this morning, leaving mostly sunny conditions for the balance of the daylight hrs. The sfc ridge axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and building shortwave ridging aloft later today will bring dry weather thru the period, with moderating temperatures. Should see highs into the mid 60s in valley locations today. Gradient flow moderate early this morning, with south winds 10-20 mph in the Champlain Valley during the pre-dawn hrs, but slackening p-gradient will result in S-SW daytime winds lowering to 5-10 mph. Lows mainly in the 40s for tonight. Temperatures moderate further on Thursday, reaching the upr 60s to lower 70s. Another mid-upr level shortwave trough is progged by 00Z GFS to pass along the intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring an increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level conditions should preclude any precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Area of surface high pressure persists over the southeastern USA as weakening low over northern Quebec attempts to drag a cold front near the international border Thursday. With dry air in place over the North Country - PWATS half inch or less - expect any moisture from front to result in increased clouds, but no precipitation. Behind the front and associated mid-upper level trough, ridging at the surface and aloft build into the northeast. Ridging will persist through the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period, starting in the 60s to near 70 on Thursday and cooler on Friday behind the cold front, then rebounding back into the 60s to low 70s for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Sunday will be warm ahead of cold front associated with longwave trough which will dig southward from Ontario. This system will provide multiple chances for showers into the middle of next week. PWATs look to increase to around 1 inch, possibly more in strong SW flow. Wind channeling up the valleys could result in strong gusty winds Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR/dry conditions. Upper level disturbance passing across srn Quebec is bringing SCT-BKN040-060 to the region, with localized MVFR conditions at SLK with upslope flow conditions early this AM. It appears any localized MVFR in the mountains will dissipate after 14-15Z this morning, leaving mainly clear conditions through the balance of the TAF period. SFC winds will remain S-SW thru the period, initially 10-15kts, but generally 5-10kts for the daylight hrs and thru tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through a good portion of today (October 18) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...Team BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.