Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010541 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1248 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NNEWD FROM THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT 0445Z. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EWD ACROSS VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH MAINTENANCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY AS THIS AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATED NNEWD INTO OUR REGION NEXT 1-3 HRS. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUASI- STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL GENERALLY 0.10-0.20"...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6. AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY. INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING, BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN 07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...TABER CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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