Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281800 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1257 PM EDT TUESDAY...STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE DECREASING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NORTHEAST VERMONT. MILDEST READINGS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 436 AM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING A RATHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TIME PERIOD EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLW ACRS THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP/DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAIN. ALL MODELS AGREE THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE PLENTY ENERGIZED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MAGNITUDE/POSITION OF CLOSING 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH 5H VORT AND CLOSING CIRCULATION OFF QUICKER ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACRS NC BY SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE A POORLY DEFINED/ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES HANGS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTERACTS AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM OVER NC...SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEVELOPS TO 983MB EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP WEST TO EAST MOISTURE/QPF/SNOWFALL PROGGED ACRS OUR CWA. GREATEST IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...GIVEN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW PRES OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS (GFS/GEM)...DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH FEATURES A STRONGER/DEEPER SYSTEM WITH GREATER IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM SHOW DIGGING 5H VORT AND A BRIEFLY CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FLW ALOFT...WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO BECOME MORE CUTOFF AND CLOSED...FOR PREVAILING WESTERLY FLW...AND MODELS SHOWING A DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WL TREND TWD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS CHC/LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROF INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP PRECIP/ACCUMULATION GRADIENT EXPECTED. VERY LIMITED QPF/SNOW WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CPV IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIED...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES POSSIBLE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS AND MARGINAL BL PROFILES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SLV/CPV. TEMPS WL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S SAT/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WL SLOWLY LIFT OUT BY MONDAY...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY TUES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS FROM 01Z-06Z IN NY AND 04-13Z IN VT LINGERING LONGEST AT KRUT AND KMPV. NOT EXPECTING VSBY TO DROP MUCH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS WHILE CIGS DROP TO 1500-2500 FT. POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH BASES RISING FROM 2500 FT TO 3500-4000 FT BY 18Z WED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND VEER TO WESTERLY BY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M. FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING. SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...SISSON

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