Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 181423 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1023 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1022 AM EDT FRIDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT OBS TRENDS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REBOUND NICELY FROM MORNING LOWS...PUSHING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A LITTLE LAG ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TO OUR WEST...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE TOWARDS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY 18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY... A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AT NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK THEN AFT 05Z KBTV/KPBG/KMPV/KRUT. OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY. HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT AND 12Z BTV. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO MUCH EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR VSBY IN -SHSN AT KSLK 8-12Z. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....ANY -SHRA/SHRA ENDING THEN BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G20-25 KTS MIDDAY. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.