Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230458 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40" ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS) AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES. && .MARINE... AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...SISSON HYDROLOGY...NASH MARINE...NASH

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