Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271103 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 703 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled and warmer weather moves into the North Country today as low pressure moving northward through the Great Lakes pushes a warm front into the region. Periods of rain and freezing rain develop this morning before transitioning to all rain by this afternoon, and then tapering off tonight. Scattered showers re- develop Tuesday as the front begins to migrate back southward, with some higher elevations snow showers possible Tuesday night and Wednesday post frontal passage. High pressure briefly returns for Thursday before another storm system looks to affect the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 703 AM EDT Monday...No changes needed to the forecast at this time. Previous Discussion...Forecast remains on track for the near term with low pressure over the Great Lakes continuing to push a warm front into the region. Latest radar trends show some spotty precipitation working it`s way into the North Country from the southwest at this time, with a better slug of moisture still further upstream over central NY and PA. Current obs show warm air has worked it`s way in aloft with summit temps in the low/mid 30s, and much of the forecast area east the Greens has held steady in the mid 30s as well. Colder regions around or just below freezing exist east of the Green Mountains as well as southwest portions of Essex county of New York so this is where we continue the freezing rain advisory through mid-morning for a light glaze. Opted to remove eastern Chittenden and eastern Franklin counties from the advisory as temps never dropped out of the mid 30s and will only hold steady or slowly climb from hereon out. Difficult to say how much impact the freezing rain will have on the morning commute though as DOT road sensors show a lot of locations still holding above freezing, a few slightly below so the ground isn`t overly cold. Nevertheless, any glaze that does develop will make travel treacherous. By mid-morning surface temps rise enough to transition ptype to plain rain, continuing through early afternoon before exiting to the east as drier mid-level air works into the region. Highs should top out in the upper 30s east to upper 40s west. For tonight, aforementioned warm front continues to push towards the Canadian border with widespread precipitation mainly east of the region but a few showers here and there are possible as low levels remain saturated. Abundant clouds and light winds will keep temps mild in the 30s. On Tuesday, high pressure building southward from James Bay will begin to push the front back southward as a cold front with winds shifting to the northwest through the day. Expect the morning to be mainly dry but moving into the afternoon scattered showers should develop ahead of the front with highs pushing into the mid 40s to around 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Monday....Background flow trends bodily to the northwest in all areas by Tuesday night as northern stream upper trough builds southward into the area. This will drive a cold front through the region and with boundary layer temperatures cooling a transition to scattered snow showers is expected as coverage gradually wanes. Some minor accumulations possible across elevated terrain to perhaps an inch or two. By Wednesday main push of upper trough swings through the region as surface high pressure builds south and east from central Ontario. A continued threat for scattered rain/snow shower activity will exist, mainly across the northern high terrain as temperatures top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most. A fairly deep boundary layer to 850 mb under modest cold thermal advection aloft should ensure a breezy day with northwesterly gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range as skies trend partly sunny for all but the northern Green Mountains by the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Monday...Any lingering northern mountain snow showers end Wednesday evening with dry weather expected Thursday into Thursday night as southern nose of Canadian high pressure traverses the area. Low temperatures on both nights mainly in the 20s with a few upper teens in favored northern mountain hollows. Highs on Thursday similar to Wednesday - upper 30s to mid 40s. Next precipitation maker then arrives by Friday into Friday night as additional energy tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area. Global models have trended toward taking this system further northward than prior indications and as such have raised precipitation probabilities accordingly - especially during the Friday afternoon to Saturday morning time frame. Boundary layer thermal profiles suggest this will mainly fall as a rain event for lower elevations, though with 850 mb temps hovering around 0C some mix with snow or even all snow may occur across the higher terrain above 1500 feet or so, especially Friday night when a mix may even reach the valley floors. Time will tell. By Saturday steadier precipitation exits east during the morning hours as skies remain variably cloudy. Temperatures average near late March norms with highs Friday/Saturday generally in the lower to mid 40s with Friday night lows from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Looking further out a gradual drying trend is expected by the latter half of the weekend as surface high pressure is bridged aloft by modest upper troughing. Temperatures should remain within 5 degrees of typical early April values with highs ranging through the 40s and overnight lows from 25 to 35. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 12Z Tuesday...MVFR conditions to largely persist through the next 12 hours with a trend to IFR for most locations after 00z. Ifr to arrive a little earlier around noon at KMSS. Warm frontal precipitation continues to move into the region over the next few hours predominantly as rain except for FZRA at KMPV through 15Z. Precip clears the area to the east after 18Z. For winds, mainly south/southeast except northeast at KMSS at 5-10kts. Some gusts up to 20-24kts in the Champlain Valley at KRUT/KBTV through mid- day. Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday... 12Z Tuesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in isolated rain showers Monday night, scattered rain showers Tuesday, then scattered rain/snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR, except for some scattered MVFR snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, mainly 00Z Thursday until 00Z Friday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003- 004-006>008-010-012-018-019. NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff

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