Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271852 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 252 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY...PROVIDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...STILL A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT COVERAGE HAS DECREASED A BIT OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO CONTINUE AS AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS FOR RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH SKIES TRENDING SUNNIER LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE BEHIND TODAYS MAIN TROUGHINESS MAY KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING TONIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAWN. GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW 925MB TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE OPTED FOR GENERALLY DRY SCENARIO AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY DELAY PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. SO EXPECT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 252 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS START OUT ON SUNDAY AT 12-18C RESPECTIVELY AND TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY TOPPING OUT MID- WEEK AT 15-22C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S MID- WEEK UNDER PARTIAL TO FULL SUNSHINE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT A FEW SITES. SCT-BKN VFR DECK JUST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, SETTING UP IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCATIONS OF KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 05-14Z. THEREAFTER, FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL RULE FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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