Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291132 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 732 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED UP OVERNIGHT...SO ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25". && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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