Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040528 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL VERMONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS KEPT SOME SCT SHOWERS GOING OVER CNTRL VT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO CHC VALUES ALONG THE I-91 CORRIDOR AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 09Z-12Z. DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS WITH WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSING SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS WRN-NRN NY. NOT MUCH OF A WINDSHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH A FEW U40S/L50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN AREAS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD SPOTS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR TEMPO IFR MIST AT SLK. MAINLY VFR TUESDAY...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY DRY WITH FEW TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH CLEARING TO PRODUCE IFR MIST AT SLK BUT WILL LIKELY OSCILLATE. WINDS LIGHT TO SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KTS. EXPECT AN EARLIER START TIME FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...AS SOON AS 15Z. I/VE SHOWN 6SM SHRA THRU 20Z WITH VCSH REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. 12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS NEAR TERM...WASULA/EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...JMG

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