Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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822 FXUS61 KBTV 242046 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 446 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure area will move out of the Ohio valley slowly tracking northeastward, and bring more widespread rainfall to the North Country Thursday afternoon through Friday. Clouds, rain, and cool east winds off the Atlantic will keep highs in the 60s Thursday, and 55 to 60 on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 430 PM EDT Wednesday...Region remains under southwesterly flow tonight as upper level low deepens over the Eastern US. Increasing cloud cover ahead of next approaching system will keep temperatures pretty mild, mainly upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. Winds will be light. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday...During the day Thursday, vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly track from the Ohio river valley Northeastward towards our CWA. Light rain will spread southwest to northeast across our forecast area, especially after 15z. Low pressure system then tracks off the coast of New England overnight and into the Gulf of Maine on Friday. Two areas of deeper low level moisture will miss us, one to our Northwest and one to our Southeast. Have lowered rainfall totals a bit, mainly a third of an inch to an inch of rain is expected. GFS is showing an evident dry slot moving across our area from 18z through about 03-06z. During this time will see some winds mix down to the surface on strong low level east/southeast jet, strong Easterly flow will cause downsloping in Rutland County as well as Eastern Addison and Eastern Chittenden counties. Have issued a wind advisory, please see NPW. As low pushes east off the New England coast Friday best forcing goes with it and precipitation will become more showery. Temperatures will remain mild through the period, generally 50s at night and 60s during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...The synoptic pattern will be shifting towards a more pleasant weekend as vertically stacked low pressure system will be pulling off the New England coastline. This leaves a few scattered showers over the eastern portion of Vermont as the moisture will be decreasing through the evening hours. The more welcomed portion of the forecast will be the high pressure that builds in for Memorial Day weekend. As ridging occurs at the surface there may be a stray shower or two but otherwise we can expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies with a few breaks in the that areal coverage. The latest trends in the guidance has been to slow down how quickly the next system is to move into the region. In the broad sense, an upper level low pressure system will track west of the Great Lakes and lift a warm front through the North Country and then later on will swing a cold front through. The timing on this has been even further delayed such that we may get through much of Sunday with quiet weather and nice conditions to be outdoors or perhaps going for a run. Towards Sunday evening and into Monday morning, expect that warm front to lift north and bring a chance for scattered showers into Monday. By Monday mid-morning early afternoon a pre- frontal trough will swing through with shortwave energy aloft and bring showers with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. The GFS depicts decent instability with marginal elevated instability along with decent 0-6km shear and moderate lapse rates. So the idea of some showers with embedded thunderstorms looks good based on the 12z guidance timing. Heading into the rest of the mid week we should see a break on Tuesday before the actual front swings through on Wednesday renewing our chances for showers. Temps through the period will be depend on the timing of the fronts but the general idea is upper 60s to lower 70s for high and lows starting off in the upper 40s over the weekend and gradually warming to the low to mid 50s by mid week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR prevails today with developing cumulus clouds deck between 4000 and 6000 feet agl as convective temps are reached. A few showers with an embedded rumble of thunder is possible at mpv/slk/btv/pbg thru 23z...with the potential for brief mvfr cigs/vis. If rainfall occurs at any one site today...some areas of fog/br with ifr conditions will be possible overnight...especially mpv/slk. North winds 4 to 8 knots today and tonight will become southeasterly and gusty tomorrow, especially at rut. Outlook... Thursday Night: MVFR. Breezy. Likely RA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance RA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for VTZ011-017>019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Neiles

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