Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141953 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 253 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the area tonight and Monday for a continuation of dry weather. Clear skies and light winds tonight will bring the North Country another night of below zero temperatures. A warming trend will begin on Monday with highs in the teens to around 20 and then in the 20s on Tuesday. The threat of light snow will increase Tuesday and Tuesday night as a low pressure system moves into the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 253 PM EST Sunday...With high pressure over the area tonight we are looking at clear skies and light winds...which will allow low temperatures to fall into the 5 below to 15 below range. Some locations in the northern Adirondacks of New York and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont will push the 20 below mark. Dry weather is expected on Monday with the area still be influenced by the high pressure system. Should start to see some warming with highs in the teens to around 20.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Flow aloft in the short term will generally be from the southwest as an upper level trough approaches the region. Clouds will be on the increase along with the chances for some light snow...especially Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not expecting a lot of precipitation and when all is said and done its looking like 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Monday night through Tuesday night time period.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 253 PM EST Sunday...12z guidance offered no big changes to the forecast. There are model to model differences, though but nothing to suggest any significant weather maker through Saturday. Stuck with the model blend output as it seemed to offer a good compromise between all the smaller variations between models, while still capturing the larger scale trends. The general scenario still looks to go this way... Wednesday: upper trough will swing through, however the associated surface low will remain well of the coast, so best chances of any precipitation will be east of the region. Surface high pressure moves in so generally dry for the western half of the region. Thursday/Friday: shortwave will push across sometime during the period (Euro says Thursday, GFS says Friday), but in either case it`s within a relatively dry northwest flow setup, so only small chance for snow showers -- especially higher terrain Saturday/Sunday: flow aloft turns westerly, allowing a milder airmass of Pacific origin to make it`s way across the country. At lower levels, a strong high develops off the southeast US coast, resulting in a south/southwest flow to develop in our region. This will advect in warmer air at low levels. ECMWF is warmer, showing 850mb temperatures by Sunday of +4 to +7C (suggesting highs nearing 50), while the GFS has -2 to +2C (suggesting highs near 40). At this point, the blend with it`s mid 40s look good, though I have a sneaky suspicion future guidance will trend toward the warmer solution. Could be a few rain showers around, especially Sunday. Just a quick peek further into the future. Looks like a relatively strong low pressure will affect the region early next week bringing mild temperatures and rain. We`ll have some snowmelt and perhaps some hydro concerns, especially if we have ice jams still in place from this weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions expected through much of the period with little in the way of any cloud cover expected. However...brief MVFR conditions will be possible at KMPV through 22z. With high pressure building over the area winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Chance light SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Evenson

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