Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161807 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 207 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A deep layer ridge will bring continued pleasant and unseasonably warm conditions to the North Country during the next 5 to 7 days. Light winds and clear skies will lead to nocturnal fog, which could be locally dense Sunday and Monday mornings across the valleys of central and eastern Vermont, and within the northern Adirondack region. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s in valley locations.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 146 PM EDT Saturday...A pleasant afternoon underway with just some fair wx Cu dotting the higher terrain and temperatures reaching the upr 70s to mid 80s (10-15deg above the climo avg). Winds are light and variable around sfc high pressure, centered at 18Z across wrn NY. It is moderately humid, with 2-m dewpoints in the low- mid 60s. With mid-level subsidence, not anticipating any convective showers this afternoon, and the daytime cu should dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle tonight. Winds will be light and variable and driven by local terrain effects overnight. The high dewpoints and clear skies should again yield some locally dense fog in the normally favored valleys of central/ern VT and within the nrn Adriondack region as well. Will see patchy fog areawide overnight, especially 06-12Z. Low temperatures tonight generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s, or around 10deg above the 30-year climo mean. Will see very similar weather on Sunday. The 12Z NAM shows winds less than 10kts at BTV from the sfc up thru 30kft, so quiet conditions under the ridge. Will again see daytime cu, but doesn`t appear shower activity will develop with general subsidence regime aloft keeping cu moderate over the ridgetops. 850mb temps bump upward 1-2C, so should see quite a few valley locations into the mid- 80s Sunday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging at the surface and aloft will close out the weekend and start the work week. This will keep the North Country dry, but increasing easterly flow ahead of Jose, approaching from the south, combined with possible shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes region, will lead to increasing clouds and moisture. Mild temperatures expected with Sunday night mins in the mid 50s to low 60s and Monday maxes in the 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...The aforementioned ridge will weaken and shift east with Jose continuing to move northward off the Atlantic seaboard. ECMWF and GFS in fairly good agreement on Jose`s track through the mid week - tracking over the 70-40 benchmark late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. This scenario would allow for showers to affect eastern and southern VT. Sometime on Wednesday, GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in track. GFS keeps Jose closer to the New England coast, while ECMWF begins to track more easterly. Both operational model runs bring an end to precip over the North Country the latter half of Wednesday. Ridging will build into the region, closing out the week with dry conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR with light orographically driven winds with high pressure in place. Pattern is again favorable for nocturnal fog. Should see VLIFR at SLK/MPV 06-14Z, and intervals of IFR/MVFR elsewhere mainly 06-12Z. Fog will dissipate with daytime heating/mixing 12-14Z Sunday. No precipitation expected. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Banacos

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