Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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924 FXUS61 KBTV 012011 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 311 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to provide the North Country with unsettled weather through the end of the week, and into the first half of the weekend. Shower will become more terrain focused heading into this afternoon, while transitioning to snow over the higher elevations. Terrain focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday as well, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 106 PM EST Thursday...No major changes from the previous forecast. Previous discussion from 948 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing scattered light rain showers across the north country at this time. Visible satellite loop showing some sunny breaks across portions of western and south central Vermont at this time. Expecting these sunny breaks will be brief, with skies becoming mostly cloudy by early this afternoon. Have dropped the mention of drizzle in the forecast and will just mention a chance of showers for the remainder of today. Temperatures in a few locations have already exceeded previously forecasted highs for today, so have made some adjustments to max temperature forecast for today. Previous discussion from 638 AM EST Thursday...Well advertised deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to influence the North Country`s weather through the next 24 hours as an occluded front pushes through the region. Widespread frontal rains and gusty southeasterly winds earlier this morning have shifted east of the area with some lingering scattered showers currently across eastern Vermont. As we head into the late morning to early afternoon hours, precipitation will increase again in areal coverage this afternoon but becoming more terrain focused across the Adirondacks and northern Greens. Winds will shift to the west/southwest, and be fairly gusty up to 25 mph in spots, but not as strong as last night. Temps aloft begin to fall back below freezing by the afternoon as well, with a transition to snow expected above 2000 feet. At the surface, temps go just about no where from current readings across northern New York, with perhaps a few degrees higher across eastern Vermont. This results in highs for the day generally ranging through the 40s. For tonight, terrain focused precipitation continues with possible a brief window if lighter precipitation possible around midnight or so as deep layer moisture shifts briefly north of the region. Overall, chances for rain/snow showers persist across elevations above 1500 feet, with cloudy skies continuing hold temps in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 311 PM EST Thursday...500mb trough moves through the region Friday night with snow showers expected about 1000ft and above and rain/snow mix at lower elevations transitioning to snow for the latter half of the night. Min temperatures will randing from the mid 20s to low 30s. As surface low pushes eastward toward the Canadian maritimes, a ridge of high pressure builds across the lower Ohio valley, putting the north country in NW flow. This will result in precipitation becoming more orographic by Saturday morning. FROUDE numbers of 0.5 to 1 indicate slow moving blocked flow on Saturday, helping to focus snowfall on western slopes and in the higher terrain. There`s a chance for brief disruption in flow late in the day as 500mb vort swings across the North Country, providing a slight chance to chance of mostly snow across the forecast area. Max temperatures on Saturday will remain in the 30s. Saturday night the surface ridge shifts eastward over the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Moisture over the North Country looks to diminish from top to bottom with lingering clouds under inversion. Expect snow showers to end by daybreak. Forecast snowfall totals throughout the short term are a dusting to quarter inch in the broad valleys, with few tenths of an inch to 3 inches in the higher elevations. Min temperatures generally in the 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 311 PM EST Thursday...High pressure is the dominant feature Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in a brief period of dry weather. Remaining under light northerly flow, temperatures remain cooler Sunday with maxes in the 20s to mid 30s. Min temperatures will range from the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday night. Another mid level trough arrives Monday morning, weakening as it moves across the region and resulting in only chance POPs as ridging returns Monday night. With max temperatures in the 30s, generally expect light snow showers. A more significant system takes form Tuesday, bringing in precipitation from the south and west. Still much disagreement among models, but as initial precip looks to be the result of warm air advection/warm front, there`s a chance for mixed precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. GFS shows southern stream low develop into closed coastal low moving near the 70/40 benchmark as another surface low associated with very large 500mb trough approaches the region from the west. 12Z ECMWF not available at time of forecast for comparison.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18Z Friday...Mainly mostly cloudy skies expected through the period as the region remains under cyclonic flow from a closed upper low over Quebec. Expecting VFR with areas of MVFR ceiling with scattered rain and snow showers expected through the period. Snow showers will be mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West- southwest surface winds will gust from 15-25 knots through the period. Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday... 18Z Friday through 18Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers. 18Z Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...WGH/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH

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