Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141731 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 131 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1229 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY OFFERING BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST...AND 75 TO 80 FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LK CHAMPLAIN). WATCHING DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH PBL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...HIGH ENOUGH SHEAR THAT IF ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP THEY`D HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ISOLD STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS. SAW A BRIEF SHOWER PASS TORONTO IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A GUST TO 50KT. ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S. GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...TABER HYDROLOGY...JMG

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