Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 221917 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 317 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will move into the region tonight into Monday with fair skies and above normal temperatures. Tuesday will see a chance for showers for Vermont and northeast New York when an area of low pressure lifts northeast along the New England coast. High pressure will build into the region later in the week bringing summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /through Monday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...An odd pattern right now with a 500 mb trough oriented ne to sw, and an upper low closing off in the base of the trough and sagging southeast toward the VA/NC coast by 12z Monday. Upper level flow is from the from the northeast, and the few showers and thunderstorms that have developed are tracking to the southwest. Lightning has mostly skipped Vermont, occurring in NH and NY outside of the forecast area in areas that have received more sunshine and instability while Vermont had the morning clouds and sprinkles. Convection will continue for a few more hours then taper off this evening. As the upper low drops south away from the forecast area a narrow ridge will topple over into the region from the west, and the pattern will resemble a rex block through Monday. On Monday an elongated narrow ridge of high pressure from the lower Mississippi valley extends up across the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, separating our southeast US closed low from the next trough of low pressure moving across southern Canada. Subsidence and some drying late tonight into Monday will allow for wide temperature swings. With good radiation tonight temps to fall into the 40s most areas to near 50 in the Champlain & St. Lawrence Valleys. Some patchy light fog possible in the areas that saw some rain during the day. Plenty of sunshine on Monday and 925 and 850 support high temps in the mid to upper 70s with full mixing of the boundary layer. Light north winds during the day with surface ridge axis positioned to the north of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...Vertically stacked low pressure system drifts east of the Delmarva peninsula during the day Monday, with newd extending trough along the New England coast remaining in place. It appears that overall movement/shift of this system to the east will allow for drier air to advect into the North Country on northerly low-level flow. As such, only included a slight chance of showers across Rutland/Windsor counties for Monday afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies (more sun north) along with 850mb temps around +10C will yield pleasant afternoon temps with highs 74-78F in most areas...and dewpoints dropping into the mid-upr 40s for much of the northern 2/3rds of the region. The vertically stacked low pressure system begins a slow northward turn later Monday night, reaching an area east of NJ by daybreak Tuesday. This should result in increasing mid-upr level cloud cover across central and s-central VT during the overnight period Monday night. Maintained just a slight chance of showers across Orange/Windsor/Rutland Counties on nrn periphery of this system. Increasing clouds across VT will keep lows on the mild side, generally in the lower 50s. May see some mid-upr 40s across nrn NY where thinner and less extensive cloud cover is forecast. The closed 500mb low tracks nnewd across sern MA on Tuesday. System is equivalent barotropic in nature, and likely will be associated with bands of showers around the w/nw periphery rather than broader zone of stratiform precipitation. Have included PoPs 40-60 percent attm, with precipitation amts 0.1-0.2" for most sections of VT, with lighter amts across nrn NY further removed from the low center. May see some locally heavier amts given PW values reaching 1.2" per 00z GFS, and potential instability around 500 J/kg leading to a few embedded tstms. Some of the tstm potential for depend on overall extent of clouds and whether or not PBL heating/destabization can occur across the region. We will continue to monitor. Deep layer NE flow would result in slow w-sw storm motions if embedded convection were to develop. Highs on Tuesday generally expected in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...Upper low departs east of New England on Wednesday, resulting in drier conditions and a transition toward a warmer and more humid overall weather pattern for the bulk of the extended forecast period. There has been an increase in run-to-run variability in the GFS and ECMWF...making daily details a bit uncertain. Anticipate highs Wednesday in the mid-upr 70s with just a slight chance of a late aftn/eve shower. Building heights and strengthening SW low-level flow should yield highs into the lower 80s for some valley locations Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Will likely also see a gradual increase in humidity with dewpoints getting into the lower 60s by Friday into Saturday. With air mass becoming more moist/unstable, PoPs continue generally 30-40% each day. && .AVIATION /19Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly central and southern Vermont this afternoon, then patchy IFR visibility in fog in mountainous TAF sites during early morning hours. rain showers forming in instability in northeast Vermont where sunshine has broken out, and are tracking southeast ahead of a slow moving surface front. Potential for MVFR vis and VFR cigs in the showers, however kept all VFR in actual TAFs. Showers to dissipate with loss of surface heating, then clearing skies. KMPV and to a lesser extent KSLK will have some residual moisture from afternoon showers combined with radiational cooling to produce some IFR fog in the 07-12z timeframe. Conditions improve to VFR clear after 12z. Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday... 18z Mon - 12z Tue: VFR/high pressure 12z Tue - 12z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon showers Tuesday and Wednesday with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. 12z Thursday - Friday: VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Hanson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.