Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180443 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1143 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building eastward across the North Country will bring cold temperatures and dry weather overnight, with just passing mid to upper level clouds. As the high pressure system shifts to our east, a warm front will approach with winds shifting into the south and southwest on Saturday. Temperatures will moderate considerably, with valley high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for both Saturday and Sunday. Also, a weak upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds, with a slight chance for light rain or snow showers, mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures generally above seasonal levels and relatively dry weather conditions are expected during the work week next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1143 PM EST Friday...No updates needed at this time as going forecast in good shape. Where clear skies existed temperatures have fallen quickly...but mid and high level clouds moving down from Canada will limit temperatures from continuing to fall sharply. Current forecast has this covered well. Previous Discussion... A tranquil evening and overnight period expected for the North Country. Visible satellite imagery and sfc observations this afternoon indicate that stratus clouds have dissipated areawide, with just scattered thin high clouds in prevailing nwly upper tropospheric flow. Low-level subsidence will increase as sfc ridge axis across wrn PA/NY, Lake Ontario, and sern Ontario gradually builds ewd into nrn NY late this afternoon, and across VT tonight. Should see high pressure shift east of VT toward daybreak on Saturday. Winds will continue W-NW around 10kts thru sunset, and then become light SE-S after midnight as ridge axis shifts to the east of the region. We should have excellent radiative cooling for a time this evening through about 6Z, aided by deep snow pack in many areas. 12Z NAM model soundings suggest some increasing mid to upr level clouds from west to east after midnight...and along with developing light south winds, will probably see temps rise a bit during the pre- dawn hrs from the Champlain Valley and points westward. A longer period of clear skies and a decoupled PBL east of the Greens suggest trending toward colder GFS-MOS for ern portion of VT. Overall, looking at overnight lows in the low-mid teens, but single digits expected across the normally colder spots in the nrn Adirondacks and across ern/nern VT. On Saturday, we`ll see relatively strong 850-700mb WAA develop as low- level flow becomes swly, and surface winds in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys increase to 10-20 mph. Valley highs generally expected in the upr 30s to lower 40s, including around 43F at BTV. It appears a weak nrn stream shortwave trough will bring a chance for a few sprinkles/mtn snow showers during Saturday night. Highest PoPs are across the nrn mtns, with PoPs generally 30-50 percent with just a few hundreths of an inch of liquid equivalent forecast. Not anticipating any wx related travel concerns. Not nearly as cold with lows Saturday night generally expected in the low-mid 30s under mostly cloudy skies, except upper 20s above 1000-1500ft elevation.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 239 PM EST Friday...Latter half of the weekend turns briefly unsettled as a weak clipper system and shortwave energy passing north across southern Ontario/Quebec will renew chances for some light shower activity, though with weak forcing and an overall lack of deep moisture expect the highest chances to be across the higher terrain and scattered at best. Temperatures remain rather mild with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s, which will produce a mix of rain/snow in any precipitation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 239 PM EST Friday...Next week begins with surface high pressure settling in over central Quebec along with an upper ridge building in from the Great Lakes. Northerly flow around the high will bring temps back down to more seasonal levels with highs mainly in the low/mid 30s, and the combination of clear skies and deep snowpack leading to good radiational cooling Monday night with lows in the single digits to teens. Upper ridge and surface high center over the region on Tuesday with temps warming back above normal as south/southwesterly flow increases ahead of our next system which looks to bring another quick round of rain and snow showers Tuesday night through Wednesday. Fast westerly flow ensues for Thursday with some weak terrain driven showers possible, before the pattern becomes highly amplified Friday ahead of a potential big system for next weekend. If the GFS/ECMWF solutions pan out we could be looking at very warm temperatures and an abundance of rain which could lead to rapid snowmelt and potential flooding problems. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions during the period with just passing mid-upr level clouds. NW winds 5-10kts will diminish to light and variable overnight. Winds will shift light SE toward daybreak, and then S-SW during the daylight hours on Saturday, approaching 10kts by 18Z. KRUT/KSLK could see some wind shear conditions at 2000ft from the southwest at 35-40 knots while KMSS will see winds become gusty at 15-25 knots after 18Z. Outlook 00z Sunday through Wednesday... Will see periods of HIR TRRN OBSCD 18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday. Any precipitation will be light, mainly isold/sct light rain or snow showers during Saturday night into early Sunday. Significant precipitation is not expected during the outlook period. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos/MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.