Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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475 FXUS61 KBTV 042316 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 616 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING COLDER TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHEAST VERMONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 613 PM EST THURSDAY...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...AND A RECORD OF 54F SET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (15-20 PERCENT) FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S...BUT A FEW UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE W-NW AT 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK MIDDAY FRIDAY. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL THAT MUCH. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 356 PM EST THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL HAVE INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIG OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REACHING OUR NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT WITH CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA. MAINLY A COUPLE INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 356 PM EST THURSDAY....ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA...AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS MAINLY KEEPS US IN SOME OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. DETAILS ARE STILL NOT CLEAR WITH WHERE THIS STORM WILL PASS IN RELATION TO NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH ALSO LEAVES SNOW AMOUNTS FAIRLY UNCLEAR FOR OUR AREA. WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST...AND SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY...WILL LIKELY SEE A LONG PERIOD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KSLK THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 8 TO 12 KTS AND OCNLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND ABATING AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR AT VT TERMINALS AND AT KPBG. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KMSS/KSLK MONDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. && .CLIMATE...
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A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON VT ON FEBRUARY 4TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 52 SET IN 1991.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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