Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270002 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 802 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 726 PM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATES AS OF EARLY EVENING...MAINLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER/TEMPS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT DEVELOPMENT/PROGRESSION OF SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM NORTH OF LK ONTARIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. LOCAL 18 UTC WRF 6KM RUN DEPICTING EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY QUITE NICELY THIS EVENING AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION ACCORDINGLY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SLT/LOW CHC POPS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NRN NY AND NWRN VT LATER THIS EVENING WHERE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE WHEN AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SEE CLOUDS ENCROACH UPTON THE REGION FROM THE NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN. EARLY IN THE EVENING...PWATS WILL PEAK AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SLV WITH SOME INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BTWN 00Z AND 06Z. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND ALSO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SUSTAINED S/SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM U50S-U60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DECREASE...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLGT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN VT...WHERE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASING FROM 14-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER NRN NY TO THE L/M80S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SLGT CHC FOR FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LVL WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW SETS IN EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL. THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE M60S-L70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S- 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SIMILAR UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF ANYTHING, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EACH OTHER COMPARED TO THIS POINT 24 HOURS AGO. THIS LENDS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DAILY SPECIFICS... FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, SO SUNNY AND DRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S. CHANGES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT TROUGH RAMPS UP. BASICALLY MEANS INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP THINGS WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL BLEND OF LOWS IN THE 50S LOOKS GOOD TO ME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE PUSHING 1.75" OR A BIT HIGHER, SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. NO STRONG TRIGGERS ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WE WILL SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. GFS AND EURO DO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY, SO KEEPING THE MENTION OF T-STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA. AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES, INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OR JUST PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE THE SITUATION. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. MONDAY: MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY, SO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND AND HAVE PAINTED IN 30-50% POPS ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY: FINALLY WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVER, LOOKS LIKE WEATHER WILL BE STARTING TURN DRIER. NOT LOOKING AT ANY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL -- IF NOT A LITTLE BIT ABOVE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAFS SITES...AS PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT...SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SO...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THU-00Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...JMG/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...WGH/NASH

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