Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 012011
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
311 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to
provide the North Country with unsettled weather through the end
of the week, and into the first half of the weekend. Shower will
become more terrain focused heading into this afternoon, while
transitioning to snow over the higher elevations. Terrain
focused precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday as
well, followed by a brief period of drier weather on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 106 PM EST Thursday...No major changes from the previous
Previous discussion from 948 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar
loop showing scattered light rain showers across the north
country at this time. Visible satellite loop showing some sunny
breaks across portions of western and south central Vermont at
this time. Expecting these sunny breaks will be brief, with
skies becoming mostly cloudy by early this afternoon. Have
dropped the mention of drizzle in the forecast and will just
mention a chance of showers for the remainder of today.
Temperatures in a few locations have already exceeded previously
forecasted highs for today, so have made some adjustments to
max temperature forecast for today.
Previous discussion from 638 AM EST Thursday...Well advertised
deep low pressure over the Great Lakes region will continue to
influence the North Country`s weather through the next 24 hours
as an occluded front pushes through the region. Widespread
frontal rains and gusty southeasterly winds earlier this morning
have shifted east of the area with some lingering scattered
showers currently across eastern Vermont. As we head into the
late morning to early afternoon hours, precipitation will
increase again in areal coverage this afternoon but becoming
more terrain focused across the Adirondacks and northern Greens.
Winds will shift to the west/southwest, and be fairly gusty up
to 25 mph in spots, but not as strong as last night. Temps aloft
begin to fall back below freezing by the afternoon as well,
with a transition to snow expected above 2000 feet. At the
surface, temps go just about no where from current readings
across northern New York, with perhaps a few degrees higher
across eastern Vermont. This results in highs for the day
generally ranging through the 40s.
For tonight, terrain focused precipitation continues with
possible a brief window if lighter precipitation possible around
midnight or so as deep layer moisture shifts briefly north of
the region. Overall, chances for rain/snow showers persist
across elevations above 1500 feet, with cloudy skies continuing
hold temps in the 30s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 311 PM EST Thursday...500mb trough moves through the
region Friday night with snow showers expected about 1000ft and
above and rain/snow mix at lower elevations transitioning to
snow for the latter half of the night. Min temperatures will
randing from the mid 20s to low 30s.
As surface low pushes eastward toward the Canadian maritimes, a
ridge of high pressure builds across the lower Ohio valley,
putting the north country in NW flow. This will result in
precipitation becoming more orographic by Saturday morning.
FROUDE numbers of 0.5 to 1 indicate slow moving blocked flow on
Saturday, helping to focus snowfall on western slopes and in the
higher terrain. There`s a chance for brief disruption in flow
late in the day as 500mb vort swings across the North Country,
providing a slight chance to chance of mostly snow across the
forecast area. Max temperatures on Saturday will remain in the
Saturday night the surface ridge shifts eastward over the
eastern Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Moisture over the North
Country looks to diminish from top to bottom with lingering
clouds under inversion. Expect snow showers to end by daybreak.
Forecast snowfall totals throughout the short term are a dusting
to quarter inch in the broad valleys, with few tenths of an
inch to 3 inches in the higher elevations. Min temperatures
generally in the 20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 311 PM EST Thursday...High pressure is the dominant
feature Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in a brief period of
dry weather. Remaining under light northerly flow, temperatures
remain cooler Sunday with maxes in the 20s to mid 30s. Min
temperatures will range from the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday
Another mid level trough arrives Monday morning, weakening as
it moves across the region and resulting in only chance POPs as
ridging returns Monday night. With max temperatures in the 30s,
generally expect light snow showers.
A more significant system takes form Tuesday, bringing in
precipitation from the south and west. Still much disagreement
among models, but as initial precip looks to be the result of
warm air advection/warm front, there`s a chance for mixed
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. GFS shows southern
stream low develop into closed coastal low moving near the 70/40
benchmark as another surface low associated with very large
500mb trough approaches the region from the west. 12Z ECMWF not
available at time of forecast for comparison.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /20Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly mostly cloudy skies expected through
the period as the region remains under cyclonic flow from a
closed upper low over Quebec. Expecting VFR with areas of MVFR
ceiling with scattered rain and snow showers expected through
the period. Snow showers will be mainly over the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West-
southwest surface winds will gust from 15-25 knots through the
Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 18Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR
at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers.
18Z Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible.