Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290753 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 353 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 147 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER EASTERN VERMONT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST VERMONT AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR OCCURRING AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. WL USE TEMPO GROUP BTWN 06-10Z TO COVER BAND OF RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 06-09Z...PER OBS AND LATEST SOUNDING DATA. OTHERWISE...RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST OF OUR REGION BY 10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING THE MSS TAF SITE. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...RJS

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