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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240241
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1041 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers will end across south-central Vermont early
this evening. Clearing skies will develop from north to south
overnight as high pressure moves in from Canada. That high
pressure system will persist over the North Country through the
weekend. Expect below normal temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
with highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s. No precipitation is
expected...but the potential will exist for frost in the northern
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, especially early
Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
As of 1033 PM EDT Friday...A much more seasonable evening underway
compared to recent days, with 02Z temps generally in the upr 40s
to lower 50s. Gradual clearing continues across the North Country
as drier air filters in from srn Quebec, east of surface high
pressure north of the Great Lakes. Because of the wetting rainfall
earlier today (axis of 0.50-1" across nrn NY ewd across nrn VT),
already getting some patchy fog per current obs at MVL/SLK.
Increased overall coverage of fog across the region overnight
given generally favorable conditions (saturated soils, warm
ground, clearing skies, diminishing wind speeds). May see a bit of
turbulent mixing at times with nly low-level gradient flow still
in place (12-15kt 1-2kft AGL), so fog may be intermittent away
from the more sheltered/favored valley locations.

Previous Discussion...Overnight, high pressure will start to
build in, but with the high pressure centered well to our
northwest, we`ll continue to have northwest flow advect in cooler
and drier air. Eventually the entire region will clear out. Expect
that to be early evening across the north and by midnight in the
south. A light northerly breeze should continue most of the night,
however some of the protected hollows and river valleys should go
calm and with the recent rains and warm ground, I would think
patchy fog should develop fairly quickly, despite the drier air
filtering in. It`s conceivable that the very coldest spots in the
`Dacks and Northeast Kingdom (Saranac Lake NY, Island Pond VT)
some patchy frost will also occur. Actually, that`s pretty normal
for this time of year. Based on trajectories, the airmass we`ll
have tomorrow morning was several hundred miles north of Montreal
this morning. Morning lows up in that part of Quebec were in the
lower 40s. Thus, the idea of most of us seeing lower 40s for lows
(except 30s in higher elevations and colder spots and low 50s
right along Lake Champlain) still looks valid. I have made very
minimal changes to the low temperature forecast.

With the colder air moving in, we`ll probably start to see a
little bit of Lake Champlain effect clouds develop late tonight.

High pressure will continue to ridge southward over the area on
Saturday. Looking like a nearly wall-to-wall sunshiny day, with a
few patches of shallow daytime cumulus/strato-cumulus. With
temperatures aloft (925mb about 7C and 850mb near 2C), we are
looking at temperatures reaching only the lower 60s in the valleys
and staying in the 50s at higher elevations. This will give us a
rare day of below normal temperatures. Good boundary layer mixing
throughout the afternoon, so we`ll probably see some 15-20mph
gusts at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Little change from previous couple of days
for the near term as we are still expecting the coldest night of
the early fall season to occur during this time period. Latest
guidance has trended slightly cooler for lows on Sunday night with
METSLK showing 19F and 38F at BTV. Synoptic pattern shows building
high pres from central Canada with dry northerly flow aloft.
Progged 850mb temps drop between 0c to -2c by 12z Sunday with
surface high pres axis across the Eastern Great Lakes. This would
suggest still some northerly gradient flow...which combined with
very warm lake temps...will produce some lake effect clouds and
keep temps near the lake slightly warmer. Thinking lows will range
from the upper 20s to mid 40s on Sunday morning...with areas of
frost in the colder sheltered valleys of the dacks and northeast
VT.

The upslope flow and leftover boundary layer moisture will
produce some fair wx cumulus clouds on Sunday...as temps warm into
the upper 40s mtns to near 60f valleys. A chilly night with clear
skies and light winds is anticipated for Sunday Night...with
widespread frost expected away from the Lake. Thinking lows will
range from the l/m 20s to near 40f...depending elevation and
closeness to the warm lake waters. Thinking even locations like
Williston...Milton and Highgate could experience some patchy frost
with a hard freeze likely for the Northeast Kingdom and Dacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Guidance has trended toward a more progressive
mid/upper level flow across the northern CONUS for next
week...which places arrival of precip 12 hours earlier on Monday
Night/Tuesday time frame...but good news system lifts out quicker
for mid/late week. GFS has trended toward the ECMWF and NAM for an
earlier system arrival...so have increased pops to chance after
18z Monday for Saint Lawrence Valley. These pops quickly expand
east Monday Night into Tuesday associated with 50 to 70 knot flow
at 5h and developing low level jet of 35 to 45 knots. Thinking the
initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of
showers...with additional rain associated with surface boundary
and potent 5h vort on Tuesday. The dynamics look strong with good
deep layer moisture advecting ahead of digging mid/upper level
trof...so have increased pops to likely for Monday Night/Tuesday.
Initial guess on qpf looks to range between 0.25 and 0.75...which
is supported by pws around 1.5". Thinking highest pops and qpf
values will be in the mountains during this time period. After a
chilly start temps will warm into the mid 50s mountains to l/m 60s
warmer valleys on Monday with increasing clouds. A warmer night is
expected on Monday night associated with precip...clouds...and
southerly winds...mainly mid 40s to mid 50s...coldest northeast
Kingdom.

Midweek...plenty of uncertainty with large scale synoptic
pattern...as models show very limited run to run continuity. Given
the complex and energized mid/upper level pattern....will continue
to mention some terrain focused pops/qpf for Weds...with a drying
trend for late Weds into Friday. Both GFS/ECMWF eventually show
mid/upper level trof being replaced by building heights and surface
high pres. This idea looks reasonable and supported by the latest
12z GFS ensemble data...with developing 1030mb high pressure across
the ne conus/mid Atlantic by late week. The combination of upslope
flow...lingering 850 to 700mb moisture...and weak low level cold air
advection with progged 850mb temps only btwn 0c and 2c...have cut
superblend numbers several degrees on weds. Thinking highs mainly
mid 50s to l/m 60s...with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. A
large swing in temps with cooler lows and slightly warmer highs can
be expected for Thursday into Friday with deep dry layer in place.
Overall...pattern will support near normal temps as we approach next
weekend....with dry conditions prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00Z Sunday...The frontal boundary has finally pushed south
of the region. VFR conditions overall are expected for most of
there period with a few exceptions. Current conditions at RUT are
MVFR due to ceilings but should clear out in the next couple hours
and then lead to a few hours of MVFR/IFR fog around 10Z-12Z. Along
with that clearing, SLK/MPV will also see MVFR/IFR fog for a
longer period from 08Z-12Z. Confidence isn`t high but it looks
like this is the mostly likely scenario playing out tonight. After
that expect mostly clear skies for Saturday with winds picking up
out of the Northwest at 10-15 knots for the afternoon.

Outlook 00z Sunday through Wednesday...

00z Sun through 12z Tue: Mainly VFR. Overnight IFR with patchy
fog possible.

12z Tue onward: Potential MVFR with showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Nash
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...MV/Nash