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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 091425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
925 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT... TURNING CONDITIONS COLDER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 912 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 20Z WITH SSWLY 850MB FLOW OF 30-35
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN MITIGATED BY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS AND SHADOWING EFFECTS WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. COLUMN IS
GRADUALLY MOISTENING (T-TD SPREAD DOWN TO 5F AT BTV) AND
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 17-18Z...FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO SLEET. ALSO NOTING THAT WE LOSE SATURATION
IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH (-12 TO -18C) LAYER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM
SOUNDINGS...AND THERE IS ACTUALLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON THESE TRENDS.
ANTICIPATE AROUND 1" SNOW ACCUMULATION AT BTV BUT STILL SOME
LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 4" FOR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS...WHERE SELY SFC-925MB FLOW WILL BRING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...ANTICIPATE SOME
DOWNSLOPE/SHADOWING CONDITIONS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS AND IN THE LWR PASSUMPSIC VALLEY (DOWNSLOPE OFF THE WHITE MTNS).
STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAVEL INCONVENIENCES ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/ERN VT - INCLUDING ALONG I-89 - SO DON/T SEE A NEED TO
MODIFY ONGOING WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS FROM
RUTLAND TO LINCOLN TO UNDERHILL...WITH SELY SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH THRU 18Z. HIGH TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
ALONG/EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS...AND GENERALLY MID 30S ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTN.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...PRECIP TAPERS OFF AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY. ACROSS NRN NY...SW FLOW WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING CHC
FOR LGT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TUESDAY
NT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND TRENDING COLDER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST SUNDAY...ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION GREATEST OVER
ADIRONDACKS EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FAVORABLE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DURING
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS REST OF REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BOTH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST
FROM GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ONLY INDICATED LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
NIGHTTIME READINGS ABOVE ZERO IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR THIS
MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR TODAY WHILE VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW
AND SOME FOG THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CIGS REMAIN MVFR
INTO THIS EVENING...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ALSO MIX WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH INCLUDING KRUT. MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT
EXCEPT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK. CIGS IMPROVING TO
VFR...EXCEPT MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV.

SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY...EXCEPT EAST AT KMSS THIS MORNING.
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KBTV/KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KMSS/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY...AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS 20-25 KTS TODAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS THIS EVENING AND TO
WEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV