Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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155 FXUS61 KBTV 291751 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 151 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 1102 AM EDT Sunday...Temperatures and the associated heat has been quite the challenge this morning. The marine stratus layer has been able to push into the eastern edge of Vermont and is keeping temps in the upper 60s to low 70s for Vermont east of the Greens. However in the Champlain valley we are continuing to heat up rapidly with the BTV observation at 86F at 11am. The expected heat wave will depend on how much cloud cover we because there is a bit of a ceiling currently moving across northern New York base on latest Vis/IR satellite. Showers are continuing across the northern Saint Lawrence Valley and into Ontario/Quebec with the most significant storm north of the international border. I did continue to blend in hires guidance into the temp forecast to show the cooler temps under the cloud cover along with the warmer air into the Champlain Valley. The forecast sensible weather looked good to go with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows: Interesting weather set up today with an upper level ridge still hanging tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof approaches from the west. Also have a backdoor front which will be edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree day in a row here in the Champlain valley with warm air still in place and lots of sunshine this morning. With approaching shortwave trof and some surface based instability will have some showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon...mainly across northern New York. PWATS surge to about 1.8" this afternoon...therefore feel that we could have heavy rain with any thunderstorms and have indicated this in the forecast. Do feel that models are overdoing the cape once again. Heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms continues into the first half of the overnight hours then storms will die off as they move eastward into more stable air and with loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud cover remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid 70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the 50s to locally near 60. By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
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Through 18z Monday...showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Adirondacks up to the Canadian border. These cells should have impact on slk/pbg/btv over the next few hours with thunderstorms temporarily on station from 18z-21z. Scattered showers could impact all stations except mss through 00z and then again overnight from 06-12z. Impacts would be temporary mvfr conditions with passing showers. Overall conditions should remain vfr with mpv the one exception seeing mvfr ceilings overnight until the early morning hours. Winds will be southerly for most of the period 05-15 knots. Outlook 18z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows: 5/29 BTV - Burlington 89 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 87 in 1978 MSS - Massena 90 in 1978 St Johnsbury 92 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Neiles/MV CLIMATE...BTV

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