Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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567 FXUS61 KBTV 071812 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 212 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions will continue into the afternoon with heat indices in the low to mid 90s ahead of some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms which may be strong or severe this afternoon with periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. The weather turns quieter later this week, with slightly above average temperatures and occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 205 PM EDT Monday...Hot and humid conditions are ongoing east of the Adirondacks ahead of a slow moving frontal system. Showers and embedded thunderstorms have begun to develop across the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of the northern Adirondacks dropping temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Outside of the current shower activity, temperatures are in the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints near 70. As a result, a heat advisory for heat indices in the mid 90s remains in effect until 8 PM for the Champlain Valley. To stay safe in these conditions, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outdoors. This environment will be ripe for thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening. Current surface CAPE values are near 1500 J/kg with Pwats around 1.5-2." Deep warm layer cloud depths with the enhanced precipitable water will create favorable conditions for torrential downpours and some localized flooding into the evening, particularly across northern New York and northern Vermont. With the orientation of the front and prevailing synoptic flow, slower moving training storms are also anticipated which could further the localized flooding threat. In addition to the heavy rain potential, the nose of the LLJ will be over the St. Lawrence Valley which could help mix down some gusty winds under any thunderstorms. Southerly channeled flow in the Champlain Valley has already led to gusts 25- 30 mph. One concern with the winds is that DCAPE values are around 1000 J/kg out ahead of the system which would enhance any gusty winds and heavy rains. While we are not expecting widespread severe weather, an few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. Be sure to stay weather this afternoon, especially if you have outdoor plans. Shower activity will continue into the overnight, but the strongest storms should weaken beyond sunset as they will mainly be diurnally driven. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s to near 70 in southern Vermont. Tomorrow, the boundary continues its slow progression to the southeast centering itself over southern Vermont into southern New England. Latest CAMs suggest the main axis of moisture should be just south of our area into parts of Massachusetts and NH by Tuesday afternoon which will help limit any stronger showers tomorrow. However, some lingering morning showers and a stray afternoon shower/thunderstorm in extreme southern Windsor County cannot be ruled out. Highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than today with values in the mid to upper 70s and lower dewpoints into the low to mid 60s. The area will begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon with decreasing cloud cover into Tuesday evening as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to near 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 205 PM EDT Monday...Seasonable temperatures but unsettled weather will begin to set up in the mid-week. Zonal flow between a ridge across the south and a trough axis across northern Quebec will allow a few shortwaves to progress across the area. Chance showers and possibly a rumble of thunder are forecasted across much of eastern Vermont by Wednesday afternoon and across northern New York by Wednesday night, but where showers and thunderstorms set up remains in question based on the uncertainty in the overall ingredients and instability. While showers are forecasted, dewpoints will feel considerably more comfortable with values in the upper 50s to near 60.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 205 PM EDT Monday...Seasonal temperatures and occasional chances for showers are expected for the later half of the week as the region remains in westerly flow aloft with several embedded shortwaves and boundaries passing through. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the overall timing of these features, although Thursday looks to be quite unsettled as an upper level trough and associated shortwave energy make for some more widespread shower activity, although it will remain to be seen how all of the ingredients and instability come together. While several periods of showers will be possible, it doesn`t look like any day will be a complete wash out at this time. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable, with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...Gusty south winds will continue while we remain situated south of a stationary boundary this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along this front and will drift southward along with the surface front as the evening goes on. As the front crosses the terminals, winds will shift from south to northwesterly. Winds will also not be as strong behind the frontal passage. Have continued to use PROB30 groups, but can amend with prevailing and tempo groups as needed. For terminals directly impacted by a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, visibilities could drop below 3 miles in any heavier rainfall. Rain showers will taper off by about 03z, and ceilings will drop to MVFR and then IFR behind the departing front around 06-09z. We could also see some fog development in the typically fog prone locations, and especially in areas that have heavier rain today. Have mentioned some FG or BR at SLK, MPV and RUT for now. Any fog that forms should lift by about 13z Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ005-009. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles