Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251129 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the north today will bring gradually lessening chances for precipitation, pushing a frontal boundary south of the area with some afternoon sunshine expected, mainly across central and northern areas. A clear and cold night is expected thereafter, with low temperatures widely varying from the single digits to the upper teens above zero. Unsettled and warmer weather returns for the end of the weekend as developing low pressure over the central U.S. pushes the front back north Sunday afternoon into Monday, with periods of rain, snow and mixed precipitation expected through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 729 AM EDT Saturday...Precipitation waned overnight across the North Country as high pressure currently centered over the southern tip of James Bay continued to slowly sag southward toward the international border. Surface observation analysis shows the frontal boundary which brought yesterday`s rain, snow and sleet has shifted to our south, but a cold front is still looming north of the border at this hour with temps/dewpoints still holding in the upper 20s to low 30s around Montreal. Further north, north of say Quebec City temps do drop off significantly into the teens so it`ll take a good chunk of the day for this front to work it`s way into the region, beginning to clear out skies in the mid-afternoon across northern areas, and towards sunset for central/southern zones. Could see a few showers re-develop mid-day across southern Vermont, but for most of the area conditions should be largely dry. With a little bit of sunshine we should realize high temps in the mid/upper 30s with light winds this morning turning to the north this afternoon at around 5-10 mph. For tonight, clear skies and light winds combined with a deep late season snowpack will once again set the stage for another round of below normal temperatures. Some high clouds will try to advance from the southwest late, but shouldn`t hinder temps dropping off into the single digits across the Adirondacks and central/northeast Vermont, while the deeper valley locales will mainly stay in the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Saturday....Large area of high pressure will exist over eastern Canada and northern New England Sunday morning and move slowly east during the day. This will allow a frontal boundary to move back northeast into the region late in the day and especially Sunday night. As a result...the threat of precipitation will increase from southwest to northeast across the area Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night. Interesting thermal profile will exist over the area with colder air in the low levels becoming established east of the Greens and eventually warmer air aloft moving gradually eastward over the top of the shallow layer of colder air. The net result will be the potential for mixed precipitation east of the Greens...sleet and freezing rain...and there may even be some freezing rain over northern New York where warmest air aloft will exist. First wave of precipitation that lifts into the region will not be significant... nevertheless it will not take much sleet or freezing rain to impact travel late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. More widespread precipitation will spread from west to east across the area late Sunday night into Monday. Thermal profile will change enough for most of the precipitation to be in the form of rain across the area...but there will still be a period Monday morning where mixed precipitation will exist Monday morning. Situation will definitely need to be monitored for any potential headline. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s and in the upper 30s to upper 40s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Saturday...Precipitation tapers off Monday night...but drier weather will be short lived as upper trough moves into the region on Tuesday with widespread rain expected with highs in the 40s to around 50. Northwest flow will keep some showers lingering in the mountains on Wednesday...but drier weather expected for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to upper 40s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...LIFR to IFR conditions will generally persist through mid-morning in low clouds and fog, then thereafter we`ll see a gradual improvement to MVFR from north to south by 18Z, further trending to VFR/SKC by 00-01Z. Light and variable winds turn northerly mid-morning at 5-10 knots, and return to calm or light north after 00Z. Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... 12Z Sunday through 18Z Sunday...VFR under brief high pressure 18Z Sunday through Wednesday...periods of mixed precipitation, though mainly rain with cigs/vsby variable from IFR to MVFR. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Weds.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Lahiff

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