Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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110 FXUS61 KBTV 231355 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 955 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure system will depart across the St. Lawrence Seaway today, bringing an end to rain and snow showers late this morning. Some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain of northern into northeastern Vermont could persist into this afternoon. Variably cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will prevail Monday through Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring the next chance for rain, generally later Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 950 AM EDT Sunday...Deep low pressure 979mb north of Quebec City, Que. still yielding strong westerly gradient flow across the North Country. Will continue to see seasonably cool/breezy/gusty conditions, generally 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph thru mid aftn, aided by steep low-level lapse rates and good low-level mixing. In terms of precipitation, rain/snow has ended in most locations, but still getting some 15-25dBZ across far nrn VT. Sfc obs include 34F in light snow showers at EFK/CDA, so will keep chance snow/rain showers across n-central into nern VT next few hours. Highest summits could see an addition coating to an inch thru 17-18Z. Previous discussion...Closed low continues to meander about the St Lawrence Delta in Quebec with base of trough having pushed east of VT, bringing an end to precip west of the Greens. Strong gusty winds will remain over the region today with clearing skies, especially in downsloping/leeward valleys. Expect isolated power outages with gusts up to 40MPH possible. Cold air continues in the NW flow with 925mb temperatures only maxing out at 3C-4C this afternoon. Even with some partial clearing, expect high temps generally in the 40s (near 50F at BTV). Gradient flow diminishes this evening. Some clouds increase from the SW this evening into tonight with lows generally 35-40F, but locally near freezing in the nrn Adirondacks. Generally quiet weather expected Monday with a slight chance for some upslope snow showers as a mid-level shortwave embedded in the flow moves just to our south. Temperatures generally in the mid 30s to upper 40s. W-NW winds 8-15kts with gusts developing in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...The north country will remain under cyclonic flow from the departing surface low pressure area over eastern Canada through the period. Expecting mainly upslope rain and snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through the period. Have gone with slight chance pops through the period to account for this. Have kept the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys dry through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...On Wednesday, one more day of upslope rain and snow showers across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, as the region remains under cyclonic flow. High pressure area to build east from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, so expecting fair and dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. ECMWF and GFS models in good agreement in showing rain showers moving into the region late Thursday afternoon ahead of a warm front. Rain and snow showers will continue across the region Thursday night and Friday. An upper trough will move through the region on Saturday, so will continue with chance pops for rain and snow showers. && .AVIATION /14Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 12z Monday...VFR/MVFR conditions this morning improving to VFR throughout the late morning and persisting throughout the TAF period. Gusty west to northwest winds will prevail through much of the period...however after 15z the winds will be strongest with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range, before tapering off to around 10kts or less this evening into the overnight. Outlook 12z Monday through Thursday... 12z Monday through 00z Wednesday: Generally VFR with possible MVFR in upslope showers Monday. 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday: IFR/MVFR fog development possible during the early morning hours. && .MARINE... AS OF 435 AM EDT Sunday...Lake Wind Advisory continues for Lake Champlain. Strong west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots continue across Lake Champlain today. This will result in wave heights of 3 to 5 feet. The highest waves will be along eastern shores exposed to a greater fetch on west winds; specifically those locations adjacent to the open waters north of the Charlotte Ferry and south of Valcour Island. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM MARINE...MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.