Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200018 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 818 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure gives way to a weak cold front moving in this afternoon into northern New York and into Vermont this evening bringing with it with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Another weak frontal system will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. This weekend will see weather become a bit cooler for Saturday into the first part of Sunday under high pressure. Sunday into Monday brings the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 803 PM EDT Wednesday...Isolated showers continue to ride along the international border this evening, but dry air is mostly keeping the storms out of our forecast area. Still have chance of showers across our most Northern zones and slight chance of thunder. Temperatures are still pretty warm across the area, mid to upper 70s. Previous discussion follows. Weak cold front pushes through northern New York bringing some late afternoon instability increases with 500-1250 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 25-30 knots. Mid and high level cloud cover is increasing as the front pushes in which should limit any significant potential convection. Coupled with that, low level moisture and dynamics are limited but a few showers and possible thunderstorms through the later afternoon and evening hours are possible, but the best chances, after 22Z will see daytime heating on the decline so activity should be isolated at best. Overnight skies will clear a bit and patchy fog mainly in the river valleys is possible again though as the low level flow turns NW and we get some weak cold advection in the low levels the coverage is pretty uncertain. Thursday will be mainly dry though another approaching upper level trough will bring more clouds and a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms later in the day with warm advection returning. Some very limited instability is forecast with CAPE 500-1500 J/kg but the coverage is very spotty and the PoPs are rather low so again not . The best instability is forecast continues to remain well south and west of our area. Flow shifts west to northwest aloft becomes established over the area Thursday night. Showers activity, what little of it there is, should come to an end after midnight. Temperatures overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s with highs tomorrow a little bit cooler in the lower to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 229 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will be building into the region as west to northwest flow develops aloft. Drying air should lead to some breaks in the clouds during the day which will lead to temps warming into the mid 80s for the valley locations and around 80 in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. With dry air all around I anticipate mostly quiet weather so I`ve opted to drop even the slight chance wording. Its possible we could see a stray mountain shower but nothing of any impact. In the evening hours we should still be under warm air advection and so our evening lows will continue to be slightly above normal with temps falling to the mid to low 60s. Saturday looks to be a wonderful summer North Country day as high pressure crests just to our northwest. We should see some scattered cloud cover but the sensible weather will be quiet. The cloud cover should be enough to keep temps just on the cooler side with highs in the 70s to near 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 229 PM EDT Wednesday...As we end the weekend the flow aloft will transition from northwesterly to more southerly ahead of an advancing low pressure system. We will see clouds increase as a surface boundary with that low pressure system lifts to the north. Moisture advection increases quickly and the chance for showers increase Sunday into Monday. PWATs increase to 1.5 to 1.6 inches but not enough to be overly concerned. Showers will move through with the best chance on Monday morning. The best forcing is to our south but there are enough dynamics to support the idea of a rumble of thunder Sunday night through Monday morning. The upper level trough will swing through late Monday into Tuesday and so chances for shower will continue until the surface front clears the North Country Tuesday afternoon. With the persistent cloud cover and continued chances for rain, our day time temps will be slightly below normal through the early portion of the workweek while our overnight lows should be around normal.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Aviation concern early this evening is potential thunderstorm at mss...followed by fog/br threat aft 06z. Current radar shows developing showers with embedded thunder along the international border with kmss reporting lightning distant nw at this time. Have tempo a 1 hour tsra with vis 4sm at kmss btwn 01-02z. Noticing lots of mid/upper level clouds on vis satl pic...which combined with temps slowly falling will delay fog/br development. Cross over temps are just touched tonight...unlike last night when temps dropped 4 to 6 degrees below values...this leads to less confidence in fog and associated ifr/lifr conditions. Have mention tempo with ifr conditions at mpv/slk btwn 08-11z...with mvfr in br at kmss. Light trrn driven winds overnight become southwest and eventually northwest on Thurs...as vfr conditions prevail. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday thru Sat Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night thru Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Neiles/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber

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