Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021850 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 250 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 112 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH FLAT SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MID-UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE CRESTING OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS VT...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST AND PREVAILING 850-700MB SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAVE ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO HOLD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...PER VIS IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN AS PBL GRADUALLY MIXES MORE DEEPLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR BUT A BIT HAZY WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND/OR HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS IN WRN ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVERHEAD SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FORECAST 80-85 SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 83-88 ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 85-90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES (15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). TUESDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WARMTH PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE STRONGER SYSTEM LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS STILL 80-85. LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS. TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL JUST SHOW VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. LOWER CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CANADA EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR AT SLK) STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING. FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASING CLOUDS BUT SOME STILL LIKELY TO FORM AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK. WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY 5-7 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SE AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE)...BECOME LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT RUT WITH DRAINAGE WIND)...BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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