Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171756 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1256 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light snow, mainly over southern and eastern VT, will be winding down this afternoon with additional snow amounts generally up to 2 inches expected. A seasonable westerly flow of air will follow with some light snow showers through the end of the week along with a general warming trend going into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1256 PM EST Wednesday...Winter Weather Advisory for Rutland, Windsor, and Orange counties of Vermont expires at 100 PM and will let it expire. Perhaps an additional dusting to an inch of snow will fall through about 5 p.m. Radar shows an area of light snow reaching just about to BTV. Expect that to continue through mid to late afternoon until the upper level trof axis passes east of the region. The flow will become increasingly westerly and Low level lapse rates will steepen in response to cold air advection behind the departing low this evening, supporting the development of some light lake effect snow east and northeast of Lake Ontario tonight through tomorrow. Southern Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York could pick up a dusting to 2 inches out of the band by Thursday night. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through Thursday night with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the high single digits to teens tonight under partly clear skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 417 AM EST Wednesday...The short-term forecast period will maintain a moderating temperature trend, which will last through the weekend and early next week. Still appears that sfc anticyclone across the Tennessee River Valley will be associated with low-level ridge axis extending newd into PA and the srn tier of NY Thursday night into Friday. Combination of WSWLY low- level flow from Lake Ontario (on nrn periphery of ridge axis), and modest mid-level shortwave trough crossing NY/northern New England Thursday night into Friday, will bring about sufficient moisture and ascent for light snow shower activity, mainly for the nrn Adironacks into the nrn Green Mtns. PoPs peak at 40-50% during the pre-dawn hrs on Friday, with snowfall amts of a dusting to 1" generally possible for the nrn Adirondacks and northern Green Mtns (little or no snow accumulation expected in the valleys). Will see partial clearing in the wake of this shortwave trough by Friday afternoon, and developing S-SW flow will result in continued warming trend. Looking for overnight low generally in the teens - except lower 20s in the St. Lawrence Valley - for Thursday night. Temperatures warm into the lower 30s for Friday, and then generally falling back to the low-mid 20s for Friday night, under variably cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 417 AM EST Wednesday...Will see the development of weakly anticyclonic flow in the mid-levels over the weekend with gradual height rises as deep-layer ridge builds across the sern CONUS. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation during the weekend as a result, though the GFS shows a developing frontal zone just north of the intl border, especially during the day Sunday. Can`t rule out some light precipitation, but overall activity along the developing quasi-stationary front should mainly occur across srn Quebec. Carried just 20 PoPs across nrn sections. Should see temperatures rising into the upr 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and Sunday, again with expectation that frontal zone sets up just to our north. Differences between the ECMWF and GFS are greater thereafter into early next week, and have increased for the 00Z model cycle. Frontal system is still expected to pass to our west across the Great Lakes and Ontario, with the GFS a bit faster in the overall synoptic evolution. The ECMWF is slower and a bit further east, with potentially secondary low development during the day Tuesday across central New England. The 00Z ECMWF suggests the bulk of precipitation would occur during the day Tuesday, whereas the GFS suggests moderate precipitation (mainly rain) for Monday night. ECMWF-MOS also suggests less of a warmup with this potential evolution than does the GFS MEX-MOS. With both timing/vertical temperature profile uncertainty larger than normal, have limited precipitation types to rain or snow attm. Certainly, with overall low-lvl warm advection regime, some threat of freezing rain and/or sleet also exists, but a skillful forecast of those p-types is difficult given current model spread. Would generally expected mixed wintry precipitation changing to plain rain in advance of cold front, with precipitation ending as rain/snow showers later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Official temperature forecast is closer to GFS scenario, with highs in the upr 30s to lower 40s for Monday into Tuesday, potentially falling late with cold frontal passage. Will need to continue to monitor this system, as moderate precipitation and above freezing temperatures may affect existing ice jams across the region. That said, extent of thawing degree hours and overall precipitation/moisture not nearly as significant as what occurred last Thursday/Friday. Thus, hydro impacts should be comparatively minor and exist mainly as a function of existing ice jams and modest increases in river levels into those local areas. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently experiencing areas of IFR in light snow moving through the North Country. Steadiest snow remains over southern/eastern Vermont and expected to continue at until 21-22Z, with gradual improvement to VFR expected after. Winds will generally be around 5 knots this afternoon northerly at KBTV except picking up from the southwest at 10 to 20 knots at KMSS tonight continuing into Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ010>012-019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...RSD/Sisson SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Sisson

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