National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 181930
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather for the week. The high
pressure will also keep Jose well south of New England, so all
that we will see is an increase in clouds and chances for
showers across central and southern Vermont late Tuesday and
Wednesday. The rest of the region will remain dry this week. The
high pressure will also keep temperatures above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...forecast in decent shape for the
afternoon. did make some minor adjustments based on latest radar
trends for placement of the initial small showers that have
bubbled up over the higher terrain. HRRR still seems the best of
the convective models, so followed it`s lead. Given the moisture
depth is not all that much and the amount of mid level dry air
in place, the isolated showers we get will remain across the
higher terrain and will not last long nor bring any significant
precipitation. And 0% chance of thunder. Temperatures across
the region are at or above previously forecast highs, so did
adjust upward a couple of degrees. It appears the smoke layer
aloft is just a bit thinner than it was yesterday, so we are
getting just a little bit more insolation to warm things up.
Well, at least that is my theory. Winds remain light, though
there is a tendancy for them to turn southeast across Vermont in
response to Jose well to the south.

Overnight: expecting another quiet night, with areas of fog once
again developing, especially in the more normal fog areas. Lows
again well above normal, with 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: Watching for low level moisture from the Atlantic
being advected westward into portions of eastern Vermont. More
guidance is picking up on this, and given the flow around Jose,
it does make sense. Thus expecting it to end up being a "murky"
looking day for southeast Vermont with low stratus hanging
tough, even after the morning fog lifts. The clouds will also
have an impact on temperatures, and continued with the idea of
only in the lower 70s down around Springfield, while near
80F/low 80s in the Champlain Valley and points westward. Looks
like that Atlantic moisture gets deep enough for some light rain
showers by afternoon. Liked how the NAM and NAM3km are handling
it, so used a model blend to drive the hourly PoP/weather
evoluton.

Tuesday night: 12z guidance didn`t suggest anything much
different than what we previously had. Looking at 35-50% chance
of light rain for roughly a St J to Rutland line and points
south. That should be the farthest northwest any rain shield
from Jose should make it. Even then, the rain won`t be heavy.
Maybe upwards of 1/4" of rain. Otherwise we are too far away to
see any strong winds. Once again, overnight lows will be above
normal with 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Models continue to show the ridge
building over the region Wednesday-Wednesday night as Jose
begins a more easterly motion. This will keep most of the BTV
forecast area rain free. The exception may be far southern
Vermont where scattered rain showers related to Jose may
persist. Will hold on to a 30 pop to cover the low chance. Temps
should be closer but still slightly above normal in the lower
to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Forecast looks pretty quiet across
the region in the long term, with the ridge holding strong. Have
kept the forecast dry throughout the time period. The warm
temperatures will also continue with the area seeing a slow
warming trend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...the next 24 hours will be pretty similar
to the past 24 hours. VFR area wide this afternoon, with only
isolated light showers over higher terrain. Should not affect
any TAF locations. Overnight expecting clear skies, with areas
of fog again developing after 04z. Most TAF locations will be
impacted, with visibilities expected to 1/2sm or lower for SLK
and MPV. Although most areas will clear to VFR by late Tuesday
morning, expecting lower MVFR ceilings to remain in place across
southeast and south-central Vermont. At this time, think RUT
will be most impacted by the lower ceilings. Those clouds may
end up staying in MPV as well, but lower confidence in that
scenario.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Patchy FG.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...NRR
LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...Nash