Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220526 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 126 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region until at least the middle of next week with Jose staying southeast of New England. Dry weather and well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period with max temperatures approaching record values this weekend. Early morning fog is also expected, primarily in the usually favored locations. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 825 PM EDT Thursday...Latest IR imagery continues to show widespread cirrus clouds across the North Country associated with the outer upper level outflow associated with Tropical Storm Jose, which was located about 150mi se of Nantucket at 8pm. These clouds will mitigate radiative cooling somewhat, and should limit fog to the more favored locations in the nrn Adirondacks and across the valleys of central/ern VT. Overnight lows are expected in the upr 40s across the Adirondacks and nern VT, and in the low-mid 50s elsewhere. Deep layer ridge extending from the southern Great Lakes newd into NY/northern New England will bring yet another pleasant day on Friday, with highs in the upr 70s to around 80 (10-12deg above the climo avg). We`ll see winds light from the north and northeast at 5-10 mph during the late morning and afternoon period. PoPs NIL. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and a strong cutoff high aloft over the eastern Great Lakes will be in control for the short term period and warmer temperatures. With mainly clear skies, again looking for the usual river valley fog Friday night with low temps ranging through the 40s to lower 50s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys. Saturday with 925 mb temps around 20C near BTV and sunny skies should bring high temps into the lower to mid 80s well above our normal high of 68 in the Burlington area. Skies will be mainly clear Sat night and with the warm temps on Sat, the low temps Sat night will be warmer with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest near Lake Champlain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure at the surface and cutoff high aloft drifts slowly east Sunday into Monday and perhaps Tue. Anomalous heights and temperatures look to be pushing us into possible record highs Sunday into Monday, possibly Tue also. 925 mb temps rise to 22-23C Sun and are very similar through Tue. Highs through the period will be in the 80s and wouldn`t be surprised if someone hits 90. This will be up to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Still no precipitation and plenty of sunshine expected. With dew points in the 60s it will definitely feel like a hot and humid summer days. Ridge begins to weaken a bit Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak cold front sags south from Canada and weakens right over northern areas but little chance in temperatures and a slight chance of showers. Eventually an upper trough begins to move toward the area on Wednesday night into Thursday with a better chance of showers and cooler temps with readings back down into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Thu. Hurricane Maria moving up the East Coast and is still forecast to remain south and east of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the exception of overnight IFR/LIFR cig/vsby possible at KMPV/KSLK. Light and variable winds overnight. Will see N-NE winds become reestablished during the daylight hrs Friday at 5-10kts. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Patchy FG. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Tue Sep 26 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NRR NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Banacos/Verasamy CLIMATE...BTV

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