Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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236 FXUS61 KBTV 272351 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 751 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected across the North Country tonight with clearing skies and light winds expected. Fog is expected to develop in the favored locations during the early morning hours. Sunday is shaping up to be the best day of the Memorial Day weekend with high temperatures in the 70s and no precipitation. The next chance for showers will come very late Sunday night and especially on Memorial Day. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down on Memorial Day with highs in the 60s to around 70. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 313 PM EDT Saturday...The shallow cumulus that has developed over the higher terrain this afternoon should remain shallow with limited moisture and not get organized enough to produce any showers. The clouds should diminish around sunset and looking at clear skies for the remainder of the night. With light winds developing the potential for fog in the favored locations should exist after midnight. Low temperatures should generally be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s. On Sunday...any fog should burn off by mid-morning and looking at a warmer and drier day. Highs will get in the 70s with shallow cumulus developing once again over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Once again moisture should remain limited and no precipitation is expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 313 PM EDT Saturday...Little change from the previous forecaster thinking for the period as we remain in this rain for several days, dry for a couple pattern. So since the weekend was dry, of course that translates into another wet period upcoming for the beginning of next week. Most of Sunday night will remain dry as a 500-700mb ridge remains over the region through midnight, but thereafter progresses eastward into the Gulf of Maine while a broad mid/upper level low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes region. A developing weak surface low and shortwave trough embedded in increasing southwest flow aloft will drag a warm frontal feature and associated deep moisture into the region during the pre-dawn hours Monday with widespread showers developing through the morning. As the best synoptic forcing associated with mid-level WAA lifts north, there`s some resemblance in the guidance of a weak mid-level dry slot building in briefly during the mid-day hours opening the window for a short period of lower PoPs and the potential for some gusty southeast winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains as a modest 925-850mb jet of 35-45 kts will be overhead. Not thinking this will be wind advisory levels, but certainly gusts up to 40mph look plausible. Any strong winds will quickly subside Monday afternoon/evening though as a weak cold frontal boundary shifts through northern New York during the mid-afternoon, and Vermont early evening with another round of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder through midnight. Overall QPF through the period will be fairly uniform over the region in the half to 2/3 inch range with no hydro issues expected, but area rivers and streams will continue to run high and fast. Lows Sunday night will range through the 50s, cooling slightly into the upper 40s to low 50s Monday night, with highs Monday slightly below normal in the low 60s east to around 70 west. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 313 PM EDT Saturday...Extended period continues to look unsettled with little day to day change as a broad mid-upper level trough will be our controlling weather feature with persistent southwesterly flow over the region. Starting out over southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Tuesday, this feature very slowly drifts eastward over the Northeast through the week and into the weekend, finally looking to exit into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Several shortwave troughs rounding the base of the parent trough will generate chances for precipitation every day, with the best chances for shower activity generally being during afternoon periods, where the combination of relatively steep mid- level lapse rates and surface heating will result in shallow instability and shower development. In general, not looking at much in the way of thunder, but have kept in a slight chance on Tuesday where surface CAPE`s are in the 500-750 J/kg range with MUCAPE`s as high as 500-1000 J/kg. Temps during the period look to be very seasonal, with daytime highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday....VFR conditions expected through 06Z for all sites. Clearing skies and calm winds will lead to radiation cooling and patchy fog development overnight. Expect VLIFR conditions to develop at KSLK and KMPV mainly between 07Z-11Z. KMSS may see some MVFR fog development as well after 06Z. Conditions improve to VFR around 12Z and persist throughout the day. Winds will be out of the south on Sunday but remain light...around 10kts or less. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...KGM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.