Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 282032
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
432 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and
will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. Ongoing
showers and thunderstorms will die down following sunset, by about
9 pm. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South-
Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift
southward into southern New England. Cooler and drier air will
filter in across Northern sections for Friday and Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 425 PM EDT Thursday...
Convective coverage and intensity will diminish following sunset
across the area. Front will continue to drop southward across our
area. Any remaining showers should be ending by about 06z. Some
patchy fog may develop in the typically fog prone spots and any
areas that had heavy rain with convection this afternoon. Low
temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than normal,
generally lower 60s.
On Friday a low pressure system off the coast of NJ and NY will
track Northeastward toward Cape Cod. There will be some heavier
rain with this feature well to our Southeast, but we could have
some showers across our Southeastern zones, mainly Southern
Vermont. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM EDT Thursday...Any lingering precipitation will come to
an end Friday evening. Drier and cooler weather will be the main
story for Friday night through Saturday night as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be very near to
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure slides
east as a broad mid level trough brings clouds and chance for
showers into the North Country from the South. Models disagree on
how far north the precipitation will reach, therefore kept POPS at
chance. The main axis of the aforementioned trough will moves
through the region on Monday, keeping a chance of showers before
exiting east Monday night. This will be followed by ridging and
dry weather through Wednesday night. The next chance for
precipitation will be Thursday into Friday with the approach of
another mid level trough.
Temperatures will start near normal with a warming trend throughout
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18z
Friday...Generally VFR with SCT-BKN070-100 much of the day.
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through
00z, and then gradually diminish in coverage during the evening
hours. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR possible in shower and
thunderstorm activity with brief heavy downpours. Mainly carried
VCSH in TAFs and will take care of thunderstorms with tempo
groups. Winds generally light S-SW, becoming light N-NW with weak
frontal passage this afternoon...and remaining light north
tonight. Patchy fog possible during the 06-12Z Friday period,
especially at locations seeing shower/thunderstorm activity during
the aftn/evening period with residual wet ground conditions.
Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated -SHRA
possible s-central VT/KRUT during Friday afternoon. Chance for
additional showers on Sunday, with isolated -TSRA possible mainly
across Southern sections.
A lake thunderstorm advisory is in effect. The frontal boundary
that is moving slowly south through the North Country is causing
showers and isolated thunderstorms to form across the region to
include Lake Champlain. With this activity, visibility on the lake
could drop to 3 miles at times and variable gusty winds at up to
30 knots are possible with passing thunderstorms. Activity should
die off around sunset.