Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240559 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1259 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE RAIN ENDS CHRISTMAS DAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1236 AM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE - ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS - EXPECTED THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). NOT SEEING A LOT OF FOG AS OF YET (LIKELY DUE TO S-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WEST OF THE GREENS - THERE IS SOME FOG ERN VT). LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWPACK AS THE SNOW COVER CONTINUES TO RIPEN AND AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CLIMB AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 319 PM EST TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH WIND WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE PERIODS OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA IS COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN AND ENHANCES THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OVER VERMONT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50S...AND THE SNOWMELT THAT RESULTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. LARGER RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT RIVERS SUCH AS THE AUSABLE...OTTER CREEK...AND WINOOSKI WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7AM FRIDAY. THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING AND DRY SLOT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND GUSTS 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BE COMMON. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EST TUESDAY...BY FRIDAY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS AND MID 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS OF THE 12Z RUN OF THE NWP SUITE THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT OVER THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ACTUAL TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP DIFFERS GREATLY AS THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA AND BRING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ON SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE FRONTAL SOLUTION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE PASSING THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW WITH THE DISCREPANCIES AS THEY ARE... HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR BUT SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY DURING DAY WILL BE DRY BUT DEPENDING ON THE MODELS A SECOND LOW COULD DEVELOP AND BRING MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY LATE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING US BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ATOP A RELATIVELY COLD GROUND AND A SNOWPACK, AREAS OF MIST/FOG WILL DEVELOP. INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MIX IN WITH THE MIST OR FOG. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4- 8 KTS (EXCEPT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT KRUT, AND NORTHEAST 6-8 KTS AT KMSS). MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONGER WINDS AT KPBG/KRUT AND KBTV WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35-40KTS DEVELOPING IN THE MID MORNING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. KRUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DELAYING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TIL LATE IN THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS AT KMPV WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. LLWS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. KSLK IS VFR WITH CALM WINDS BUT WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LLWS ACCOMPANYING THESE CONDITIONS. LIFR CIGS ENTRENCHED OVER KMSS AND PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING. NE WINDS WILL SEE LLWS OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY, BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z THU-12Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z FRI-00Z SUN...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SHOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...KGM

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