Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290821 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 421 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...interesting weather set up today. upper level ridge still hangs tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof approaches from the west. also have a backdoor front which will be edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree day in a row here in the Champlain valley with warm air still in place and lots of sunshine this morning. With approaching shortwave trof and some surface based instability will have some showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon...mainly across northern New York. PWATS surge to about 1.8" this afternoon...therefore feel that we could have heavy rain with any thunderstorms and have indicated this in the forecast. do feel that models are overdoing the cape once again. heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms continues into the first half of the overnight hours then storms will die off as they move eastward into more stable air and with loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud cover remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid 70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the 50s to locally near 60. By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA particularly after 16z Sunday at our NY terminals. Similar to last night with some leftover high clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary- layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain driven becoming calm. Any mist/light fog lifts early in the morning under strong sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture should support at least scattered showers/possible storms. Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities. Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts. Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows: 5/29 BTV - Burlington 89 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 87 in 1978 MSS - Massena 90 in 1978 St Johnsbury 92 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Neiles CLIMATE...BTV

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