Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 302347 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 747 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A GREATER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE AN EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH COOLING EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL FURTHERING STABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH POSSIBLE. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING, MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...500MB TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO IN THE MORNING, ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, PREFRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES DEFINED MID-DAY, HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COME 15Z WEDNESDAY, SBCAPE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/K AND CONTINUE INCREASING TO 800-1500 J/KG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD BY 18Z WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6. AFTER 18Z THIS INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. NAM SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP SHEAR OF 30-45KTS IN THE MORNING TO MID DAY. LIFT WILL BE ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE MORNING, BUT THIS JET LOOKS TO EXIT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAIN BY MID DAY. INSTABILITY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING ONLY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHEN BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. BUT ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY...ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 21Z. WHILE WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AS MODELS INDICATE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 INCHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRYING NW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRYING TREND CONTINUES AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S WITH CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH THURSDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY FROM THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE FOR HIGH PRESSURE, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO BE THE RULE. A WEAK AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY EVENING, BUT BY AND LARGE A ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE MEAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL SHOULD DOMINATE WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME EVIDENCE THAT AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD SLIGHTLY, SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A TAD WARMER AS WE TRANSITION INTO DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. GIVEN SUCH CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, NO BIG CHANGES WERE OFFERED WITH THIS PACKAGE SHOWING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY DAY AND IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT NIGHT, AGAIN, WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS OCCURRING TOWARD THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH MOST TERMINALS BUT SHOULD BE DONE AROUND 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 03Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS LINGERING AROUND OR AT MVFR AT KMSS AND KSLK FROM MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSLK COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15-20 AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. 06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KSLK/KMPV.
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&& .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WGH/MV CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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