Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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003 FXUS61 KBTV 091145 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 645 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The North Country will be in between systems today with a trough of low pressure to our west and deeper moisture off the East Coast. The deeper moisture will eventually move westward and bring light snow to Vermont this afternoon and tonight. The trough of low pressure to our west will move in later tonight and Sunday and bring snow showers to the area. A more widespread light snow event is expected Monday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure system moves down from Canada. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Saturday...Area remains in between systems early this morning with upper trough to our west and deeper moisture off the East Coast. We will see plenty of clouds today and eventually some of the deeper moisture will make it into Vermont later this afternoon and especially tonight. There should be a sharp gradient to the precipitation with a slight chance of snow for the Vermont portion of the Champlain Valley and likely to categorical precipitation chances east of the Green Mountains and especially near the Connecticut River Valley. Areas east of the Greens should see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches from this event. Eventually the upstream upper trough moves closer to the region later tonight and this will push the snow over eastern Vermont out of our area...but bring some snow showers to northern New York Sunday morning and over the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon. Could be some localized minor accumulations. High temperatures both today and Saturday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Saturday...By Sunday night, the base of the mean 500 mb trough axis swings through the Northeast pushing an accompanying weak surface trough southward into our area. Modest surface convergence should allow a period of scattered flurries/snow showers to affect mainly central and northern counties through the overnight hours as winds trend light northwesterly over time. Minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be possible and is in agreement with this morning`s deterministic output, though it will be on the fluffy side with snow ratios generally ranging in the 18-23:1 range. Low temperatures to range mainly through the teens to locally around 20 near Lake Champlain. Quiet weather is then expected for Monday as surface high pressure quickly skirts across the area with light winds and partly sunny skies. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures at 18Z range from -6C to -13C south to north. Using a climo-adjustment of adding +7C to these values for the December/January period yields highs in the upper teens/lower 20s north and in the 23 to 28 range across central/southern counties. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM EST Saturday...Thereafter, the overall synoptic- scale picture from a CONUS perspective remains largely unchanged throughout much of next week as a seasonably deep longwave upper trough remains in place from the Central Plains eastward. This will keep temperatures on the chilly side with daily highs mainly in the teens and 20s and overnight lows in the single digits to teens. Individual bundles of energy moving through the mean cyclonic flow aloft will create near daily chances of light snow/snow showers across the area, especially in the northern mountains. The strongest of these features still appears on track to affect the area Monday night into early Wednesday as northern stream clipper-type energy takes a favorable track atop the region. Widespread, accumulating light to modest snowfall is expected during this 36-hour period during which several inches may fall. Being of continental origin the system will have only modest moisture to work with (PWATS around 0.25 inches) so not looking at anything exceptionally heavy. That said, snow ratios are somewhat above average so a first guess would suggest a possible advisory-level event for portions of the area with the northern mountains having the most favorable chances. Time will tell. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Extensive area of clouds exists over the entire area this morning...but ceilings are generally in the VFR category with MVFR conditions at KSLK through 15z before ceilings lift there back into the VFR category. Deeper moisture to our east will work its way westward this afternoon and tonight and light snow should work into eastern Vermont and KMPV will have the potential to experience MVFR ceilings/visibilities with all other aviation sites remaining in the VFR category. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas of IFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas of IFR possible. SN likely. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas of IFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Evenson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.