Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191123 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 623 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK ON FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 15Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF ANY AT ALL. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME SITES OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR. 00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI

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