Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280740 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 340 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM 11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE. 12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES. 00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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