Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231136 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 736 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies and above normal temperatures today. An area of low pressure will lift northwards towards the New England coastline and bring increasing clouds with a chance for showers on Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region later in the week bringing summer-like weather with warm temperatures and a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 719 AM EDT Monday...The low light fusibility satellite imagery captures the river valley fog extremely well this morning. Fog banks have setup in the Connecticut, Passumpsic, and Winooski river valleys along with the Otter Creek basin. The clear skies above the fog will help to mix the boundary layer and blow away the trapping subsidence inversion that is holding the moisture in place. Obs have already started to show this happening and expect most of the fog to mix out by 8-9am this morning. The rest of the forecast is in good shape and expect a nice sunny day to start the work week! Previous discussion as of 420 am edt Monday...Fog remains the challenge overnight with many of our favoured valley locations reporting patchy dense fog. Patchy dense fog will continue through most of the overnight hours along those sheltered river basins and in areas where residual moisture from yesterday`s rainfall is trapped under a low level inversion. The RAP still has a good handle on the fog so I`ve continued to trend the sensible weather towards RAP based forecast soundings. The upper level ridge tracks into the north country by mid morning and dry air moves in aloft. Hires progs depict <30% for the 1000- 500mb layer average as a subsidence inversion moves in from the west. Expect plenty of sunshine for the forecast area with 925mb temps warming to 18-19C leading to max temps in the upper 70s with a few spot 80`s possible. With the ridge aloft and high pressure building at the surface expect light north winds throughout the afternoon and early evening. Overnight tonight we slowly see an increase in clouds over southern and eastern Vermont as a low pressure system brings a sight chance for rain showers mainly over Windsor county in southern Vermont. With clear skies still over northern New York expect temps to radiate down to the upper 40s while staying in the low 50s in Vermont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Upper low off the eastern tip of Long Island Tuesday morning will move northeast and reach eastern Maine by Wednesday morning. This track should keep the bulk of precipitation out of our area with a noticeable gradient of precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. Looking at dry conditions for the Saint Lawrence Valley...a slight chance for the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley...and chance for the southern and eastern sections of Vermont. Can`t rule out the possibility of a thunderstorm either. Much of this is already in the forecast and have continued the idea. Showers taper off Tuesday night as upper low moves well east of the area...but a shortwave trough moves in from the west on Wednesday and thus looking at another chance of showers for all areas along with a slight chance for a thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures will be the rule through the extended forecast Thursday through Sunday. In fact...925 mb temperatures get a little above +20C which suggests highs well into the 80s. West to southwest flow aloft will develop and thus higher dew points are expected. With the increased moisture and clouds/convection expected through the weekend...high temperatures may be tempered just a bit Nevertheless will indicate upper 70s to mid 80s for the weekend. Instability will also exist and thus looking at the potential for some showers and thunderstorms through much of the extended. Some of it will be diurnally driven...thus not looking at any particular days being a washout...but a threat for convection will exist most days. && .AVIATION /11Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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Through 12Z Monday...Expect the LIFR/IFR fog to improve and clear by 13z for all sites. Latest obs from BTV and RUT show the fog already beginning to mix out. The boundary layer has already become mixed at PBG and SLK and the fog has already dissipated. as high pressure builds in at the surface today, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with generally clear skies and variable light winds. Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday... 12z Tue - 12z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon showers Wednesday with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. 12z Thursday - Friday: VFR/high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal

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