Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251645 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1145 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WILL USHER IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY EXIT WITH THE FRONT BY MID- MORNING...BUT A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE A MILD CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOST VALLEY SECTIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 920 AM EST THURSDAY...CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 974MB LOW PRES JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH SFC COLD FRNT PUSHING ACRS EASTERN VT ATTM. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY 10 AM THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS TO CAPTURE THIS TREND OF PRECIP RAPIDLY EXITING OUR CWA THIS MORNING. ALSO...HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AND WEAK LLVL CAA ACRS THE DACKS TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. EXPECTING TEMPS TO JUMP A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLW...ESPECIALLY NEAR VSF. ELSEWHERE...WEAK LLVL CAA WL RESULT IN TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S MTN SUMMITS TO 30S MIDSLOPES AND L/M 40S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT GUSTY WINDS BTWN 35 AND 45 KNOTS...BUT STRONGEST 850 TO 925MB CORE OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS IS QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH LATEST KTYX VAD AT 925MB ONLY SHOWING 35 KNOTS. AS DEPTH OF LLVL MIXING INCREASES...STILL THINKING WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE ACRS THE SLV...WHERE SOUTHWEST CHANNELING WL HELP TO ENHANCE VELOCITIES. ALL IS COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST. WE WL REEVALUATE CRNT HEADLINES AROUND NOON FOR POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS. HYDRO WISE...WE ARE SEEING RISES ON MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS MORNING...WITH AUSABLE AND OTTER CREEK ABOVE ACTION STAGE. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW PACK AND QPF BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75 IS RESULTING IN THESE RISES. NOT ANTICIPATING MANY PROBLEMS...AS QPF WAS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER VALUES PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WL CONT FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...BUT THIS ALSO MAYBE TAKEN DOWN AROUND NOON. PREVIOUS FCST BELOW: COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND ALSO MARKS THE BACK EDGE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS PER COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AT 1148Z. WE/VE SEEN WIND GUSTS TO 44 KTS AT POTSDAM (KPTD) AND MASSENA (KMSS). MAY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITH BETTER MIXING AFTER SUNRISE...BUT HAVE CAPPED THE PEAK GUSTS RIGHT AT 50 KTS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH BEST LOW- LEVEL JET CORE PASSING THRU NOW AND NOT QUITE LINING UP WITH THE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED LATER. OTHER THAN THIS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP (979MB) SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC AT 08Z WITH SWD TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STRONG AND GUSTY AS EXPECTED...AND HAVE SEEN GUSTS AROUND 50KT ACROSS WRN NY AND PORTIONS OF SERN ONTARIO DURING THE PAST 1-3 HOURS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN OUR ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ZONES AND WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RAMPING UP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE 10-13Z TIME FRAME. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE THIS MORNING...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MAINTAIN 35-50 MPH GUSTS THRU AFTERNOON IN NY...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN VT. TEMPERATURES ARE BRIEFLY SPIKING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN AREAS SEEING LOW-LEVEL MIXING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...IN STABLE AREAS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS...TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 34-36F RANGE...BUT WILL ACTUALLY JUMP INTO THE 40S WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH MIXED PBL CONDITIONS. OVERALL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS...EXCEPT MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ON SWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...ANTICIPATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT FOR ANY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED THE FLOOD THREAT. STILL SOME SNOWMELT THRU TODAY SO LEFT FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AT THIS POINT. FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HYDRO ASPECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HYDRO SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 15DEG ABOVE LATE DECEMBER NORMALS. AS SFC LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BUILDS EWD INTO THE NERN CONUS TONIGHT...AND REMAINS THRU SATURDAY. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTEROON. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR ISOLD RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40-44F RANGE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST VALLEY SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 322 AM EST THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE IN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE, COULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER, AS MAXES START AT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND COOL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL MAX SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY COOL BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MVFR AT SLK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING (PBG SHOULD BE LAST TO LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z). COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AT SLK WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS AT MSS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR STILL POSSIBLE. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHC OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .HYDROLOGY... COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ISOLD 0.1-0.25" RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS EVENT. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS LIMITING THE FLOOD THREAT. ONLY ACTIVE FLOOD WARNING IS FOR THE AUSABLE RIVER AT AUSABLE FORKS (ASFN6)...BUT EVEN THAT SITE HAS LEVELED OFF FOR NOW A BIT BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE LEFT THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT WITH TEMPS LOW-MID 50S...BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TODAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS...AND CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UPWARD OF 40 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD 15-25 KTS LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026-027- 031-087. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028>030-034- 035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...MUCCILLI HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV MARINE...WFO BTV

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