Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230527 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 127 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible this evening across the northern Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. Otherwise, high pressure across Quebec will bring light north winds and dry conditions overnight and through the daylight hours on Sunday. Our chances for showers increase as an upper level trough will bring widespread showers to the North Country beginning Sunday night and lasting through Monday and into Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1038 PM EDT Saturday...Weak sfc high pressure across sern Ontario/swrn Quebec will be in control overnight. That said, abundant mid-level clouds remain present for all but far nrn VT at 02Z per recent IR imagery. While no additional precipitation is expected, these clouds will mitigate cooling overnight and limit fog formation in most areas. Have raised overnight lows a couple of degrees and removed fog from the forecast. With high pressure in firm control Sunday expect another quiet day to start. The upper level trough will still be east of the the Great Lakes mid day so while clouds should be on the increase during the day, precip will be slower to arrive. The flow aloft will be generally northwest with northeasterly surface flow. The weak cool air advection and increase cloud cover should only allow the temps to warm to the mid 70s on Sunday. Heading into the evening hours the upper level clouds low will continue to track over the Great lakes and a meso low will develop over Lake Ontario. That meso low will ramp up shower activity quickly and should lead to widespread showers over northern New York late Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 332 PM EDT Saturday...Low pressure system will bring showers and possible thunderstorms to the North Country Monday through Tuesday. Surface low pressure will approach from the southwest as a mid level trough digs into the eastern Great Lakes during the day Monday. PWATs will climb to around 1.25" as low level deformation increases with approaching low. While moist environment will be in place, CAPE will be lacking over most of VT and 500-1000 J/kg over northern NY on Monday. Expect thunderstorms to affect northern NY with just showers over VT. SE to easterly winds around 925-850mb could result in some downsloping and slightly less POPs in the leeward valleys. Overcast skies, rain showers, and decreasing 925mb temperatures on Monday, expect maxes in the 60s. Monday night into Tuesday will see surface low near Lake Ontario translate some of its energy to a coastal low off the Jersey coast. While this coastal low takes the bulk of moisture with it ENEwd out to sea, the 500mb trough will move across the North Country on Tuesday, resulting in more showers. Temperatures still below normal with Monday nigh min in the 50s and Tuesday max in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 332 PM EDT Saturday...Expect the 500mb trough to move east of VT by 00Z Wednesday with high pressure building at the surface. Clearing skies Tuesday night could lead to areas of patchy fog. Drier air filters in with PWATs falling to 0.5-0.75 Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday will be dry and warmer with maxes in the mid 70s to around 80. Ridge of surface high pressure slides east Wednesday night, putting the North Country in south to southwest flow. A surface cold front is progged to move into the St Lawrence Valley for the latter half of Thursday, producing showers and thunderstorms. This will continue into Thursday night as the cold front continues to cross the region. Model guidance diverges as the ECMWF stalls the frontal boundary over New England Friday as energy rides along the front and develops into a surface low. This low strengths and moves northward over western New England resulting in a wet weekend. On the other hand, the GFS builds high pressure into northern New England through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 06Z Monday...Overall VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with FEW-SCT mid clouds currently over the region increasing to BKN-OVC through the day and slightly lowering. Only exception is at KSLK where a brief period of MVFR BR is likely through about 09Z with possible IFR. Winds will be light north/northeast less than 10 knots through the period, except locally southeast at KRUT during the overnight hours. Outlook... Monday: MVFR. Likely RA. Areas +RA. Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff

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