Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 271150 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 750 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION LEADING TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY... RADAR ECHOS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK SO I FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT WHERE THE FORECAST IS AT THE MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASED ON LATEST NAM GUIDANCE I CONTINUED THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 14Z WHICH IS ABOUT 2 HOURS LATER THAN I HAD THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STILL BE MARGINAL SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER A MOSTLY SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. AS OF THE LATEST OB AT RUTLAND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE AND IN SPRINGFIELD THE OB HAS BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 3/4 TO 1 MILE OVER THE LAST HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 AM FRIDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIP IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT ECHOS SHOW OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. CURRENTLY DONT HAVE ANY GROUND TRUTH AS TO THE LIGHT ECHOS BUT ITS POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS THE SURFACE IS ALMOST COMPLETELY SATURATED. GIVEN THE HEAVY SATURATION AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND UP INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HERE AT THE BTV AIRPORT WE ARE STILL CLEAR BUT ACROSS THE LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH THEY ARE REPORTING 3 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND FURTHER SOUTH IN BOTH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD BOTH SITES ARE REPORTING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES OF VISIBILITY. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN WITH SATURATION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 6 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING EXPECT THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. AS OF THIS UPDATE I DONT EXPECT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE MOUNTAINS IN BOTH THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TODAY BEFORE THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PUSHES INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY...IT REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND WILL STILL BE TRYING TO HOLD ON THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DOES MOVE THE EAST WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND COLD DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT WILL CAUSE TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN MIST AT SLK/PBG/RUT/MSS THROUGH 15-16Z. REGION REMAINS IN FRONTAL ZONE NORTH AND WEST OF DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPSTREAM SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN NW WIND SHIFT (5-10 KTS). WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. CEILINGS GENERALLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU TONIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.