Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191148 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 748 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7 days. Hurricane Jose will remain south of New England, but onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry with temperatures well above seasonal averages for mid to late September. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 743 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally quiet wx conditions continue during the near-term forecast period with a narrow axis of high pressure anchored in place across northern New England and New York. Will see just some very outer fringe effects from Hurricane Jose in the form of some marine stratus across ern VT/CT River Valley and into Rutland county with SE flow advecting marine moisture wwd into ern VT this morning. While there will be some breaks, this will have the effect of keeping temperatures a bit cooler in the CT River Valley this afternoon. Have also carried a chance of rain showers for Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties tonight into early Wednesday morning with Atlantic moisture interacting with weak deformation in the flow around 700mb as Jose makes its closest pass while remaining southeast of the 40N 70W benchmark per NHC track guidance. Deformation forcing may cause some light bands of rain pushing nwwd into portions of ern/s-central VT, but any rainfall is expected to be light (0.10" or less), and may see a trend for radar echoes to decrease as they push into the prevailing ridge further north across VT and far nrn NY. Elsewhere, will see some patchy fog 06-12Z Wednesday. Winds will continue light south-SE today, but then turn into the north 10-15mph on Wednesday as winds respond to the cyclonic circulation of Jose. May need to watch Lake Champlain for a Lake Wind Advisory with channeling effects, but right now appears sustained winds over the lake will be in the 15-20kt range for the most part. Temperatures are starting warm for mid-Sept once again this morning, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Will see afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s from the Champlain Valley wwd across nrn NY, but in the low-mid 70s for central/ern VT due to clouds and marine influence. Overnight lows above normal again tonight...with 50s to lower 60s. Will see highs on Wednesday generally in the upr 70s to lower 80s areawide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose. Jose pulls away from the east coast and looks to have diminishing potential influence for the short term as the main weather driver as the large upper ridge shifting in from the west that will be in control. This will lead to another quiet and dry day for Thursday, though temperatures will be slightly cooler with northerly flow over the region. Even still temps will still be above seasonal norms with highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...As mentioned before, the large upper ridge will dominate our weather through next weekend. Most of the models continue to want to loop Jose ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge to build in more. This leads to unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to mid 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s. Looking beyond this period, with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose, Maria looms in the distance and could have potential impacts for the US next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...TAF sites are mainly VFR early this AM, with the exception of periodic MVFR ceilings with marine stratus affecting RUT/MPV. Will see a tendency for these clouds to erode ewd with daytime heating, so should see RUT/MPV trend VFR later this morning and thru the afternoon hours. Looking for winds mainly S-SE 5-10 kts, except light NE at KMSS. May see a few rain showers with fringe effects of Jose offshore southeast of New England, but activity will mainly affect SERN VT and remain south and east of TAF locations. Carried just VCSH at RUT after 01Z Wednesday. Lesser cloud cover tonight across nrn NY may allow for additional fog/BR formation KSLK and possibly KMSS 06-12Z Wednesday. May see marine stratus shift back wwd into RUT/MPV TAF locations during the overnight hours, with potential for MVFR (1.5-2.5kft) ceilings. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Banacos

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