Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 162357 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 757 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. STILL LOOKING AT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MOST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH 57-62F. HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV && .CLIMATE... BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884). SITERECORD DATE KBTV 13F 1971 KMPV 17F 2003 KMSS 20F 2003 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...JMG/RJS HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV CLIMATE...JMG

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